December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[El_Nina]

Yeah my buddy who lives near Josh says he is at 34 right now.

 

Armed I hope.

[Front Ranger]

We have had 9.3 inches of snow fall as rain today here.

That's the spirit!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cut out our dying Magnolia tree. Was a big headache overhanging our power line during 2-25-19 so this assures we won’t have any winter weather down this way for the time being.

[El_Nina]

Cut out our dying Magnolia tree. Was a big headache overhanging our power line during 2-25-19 so this assures we won’t have any winter weather down this way for the time being.

Should have taken down the lightning rod instead.

[GHweatherChris]

That's the spirit!

All avenues must be covered!

[Gradient Keeper]

Lots of Gorge outflow, dry and chilly east wind. By next Friday night/Saturday it becomes real strong.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 13 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

 

10 Day Rainfall Totals

 

 

10 Day Snowfall Totals

[ShawniganLake]

Almost 1/3” of rain today. Getting dangerously close to 1” for the month of December

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run gives me a nice snow event in NE Oklahoma late next week. We'll see...

[Gradient Keeper]

Wasn't expecting this. 00z GEM for Sunday is considerably cooler/colder than previous runs. It's brief though.

 

[MossMan]

Dumpage at Snoqualmie! Now I want this image to happen in front of my flood light at home!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kinda crazy how cool things have trended for this weekend. 

[ShawniganLake]

Kinda crazy how cool things have trended for this weekend.

Wonder if Jim will show up tonight

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

00z GFS

 

10 Day Rainfall Totals

 

 

10 Day Snowfall Totals

Pivotal also has a higher resolution GFS model.

 

[Blizzard777]

Dumpage at Snoqualmie! Now I want this image to happen in front of my flood light at home!

Be nice if they had streaming cameras up there with sound.   

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like another backdoor blast is on the way. Short lived one though.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like another backdoor blast is on the way. Short lived one though.

 

I think calling it a "blast" is extremely charitable. Just looking like a seasonably cool weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like another backdoor blast is on the way. Short lived one though.

 

Might be enough to get some low level cold going though. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like another backdoor blast is on the way. Short lived one though.

 

Not sure I'd consider this "backdoor", more of a marine polar hybrid. The outflow will be relatively weak and there's still onshore flow at the 850mb level, a few runs have even shown snow up this way.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not sure I'd consider this "backdoor", more of a marine polar hybrid. The outflow will be relatively weak and there's still onshore flow at the 850mb level, a few runs have even shown snow up this way.

yeah definitely nothing to really write home about. All I take from the run is drier which isn’t what I was looking for. Makes me less optimistic about the storms in the 7-10 day range planning out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to look like maybe some legit potential after Christmas though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles

Ahhh.... FINALLY a POSSIBLE sign on the ensembles end of the run things cool and there are some cold members -5c to -10c.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF. Nice bout of decent low-level cold with strong east winds.

 

7 AM Sunday. A bit chilly.

 

 

Tuesday 7 AM STRONG, cold east wind!

[El_Nina]

00z WRF. Nice bout of decent low-level cold with strong east winds.

 

7 AM Sunday. A bit chilly.

 

 

Tuesday 7 AM STRONG, cold east wind!

With some snow on the mountain this east wind will feel deserved!

[Deweydog]

euro!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 a bit intriguing. Kona low developing. B E L I E V E !!!!

 

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

euro!!!!

Bye mountain snow!

[Deweydog]

Splitting trough approaching at 240 hours???

 

Weird.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF looks very similar to the consistent EPS now.   Surprising.  

[MossMan]

It’s over.

 

Goodnight everyone!

[Gradient Keeper]

In terms of the 500mb pattern I like what I'm seeing upstream. Day 8+ All models have an Aleutian ridge around ~155-160 W with a wave/cut-off low under the ridge/block and building heights over the Central US traversing towards the Southeastern US. I have a bit more optimism after 00z runs. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! B E L I E V E !!!!

[Front Ranger]

The CMC is easily the most promising towards the end. Some overall similarities in how the pattern develops among the models, but some pretty significant differences as well past day 6.

 

One thing is certain - any consolidated jet like we're seeing now looks to be short-lived, as the jet stream quickly gets lethargic and wavy again, as it has this whole cold season.

[Deweydog]

The CMC is easily the most promising towards the end. Some overall similarities in how the pattern develops among the models, but some pretty significant differences as well past day 6.

 

One thing is certain - any consolidated jet like we're seeing now looks to be short-lived, as the jet stream quickly gets lethargic and wavy again, as it has this whole cold season.

I did six Canadian extrapolations and none turned out worth a D**n. They did taste like bacon though.

[ShawniganLake]

Gefs looks decent after day 10. GEPS looks like hot garbage

[Gradient Keeper]

I did six Canadian extrapolations and none turned out worth a d**n. They did taste like bacon though.

The tastiest of all model extrapolations. GFS tastes like Apple Pie and Meatloaf. European Crêpes and Goulash.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 16 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Gefs looks decent after day 10. GEPS looks like hot garbage

It's coming.....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DJ is so positive right now. I appreciate it home boy. 

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ is so positive right now. I appreciate it home boy. 

It helps to be with everything that is going on. Honestly if all models weren't similar Day 8-10 around ~155-165 W coupled with the 00z GEFS much improved 500mb pattern I may not be super optimistic. Anyhow. Exhausted. I'll probably be here for 12z runs tomorrow before heading to knee surgeon for xrays and evaluation. Good night.

[Deweydog]

24 years ago right now barometers were falling rapidly and that % kid would have been LOSING HIS MIND.