12/9 - 12/11 Upper MW/GL's System

[jaster220]

Glad to see that the snow band held together for you guys out in Iowa. The sun is out and shining here, however it is still windy with snow still blowing around some, and temps are in the upper teens, brrrr! 

 

I am really surprised that the local NWS offices in Omaha and Des Moines didn't use the new "Snow Squall Warning" option for a headline... this event surely fits that category, am I right?

 

As I understand it, yes, this is exactly the type of event. Were any of your offices mentioning this potential in their AFD's? Nobody posted such if they were. 

[jaster220]

Meanwhile, remember "the sky is falling! the sky is falling!" hype for this huge arctic outbreak and crazy LES slam?? 

 

GRR

 

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

The primary fcst challenge is the extent of any travel impacts
related to the incoming cold snap. The lake effect potential with
this system has been looking less impressive with each model run
and snow amounts for most areas may very well be under one inch.

The problem is the dry air and subsidence associated with the
large 1040 mb sfc high which builds in from the west. Inversion
heights are only around 4K ft in the cold air on Tuesday and
Wednesday which should really hold down amounts. So despite delta
T`s of 20C or more, this does not look like a big lake effect
event for sw Lwr MI.

 

Total clown office! 

[hlcater]

WWA issued north and west of an IOW-DBQ line for a quick round of heavy snow and a flash freeze. Little/no accum expected. 

 

In other news. Massive car pileup in Des Moines. Yikes...

 

https://twitter.com/NStewCBS2/status/1204091492253552641

[Hawkeye]

There is a thin band of yellow on radar approaching Cedar Rapids.  I hope it holds together.  It'd be nice to see a heavy burst.

[Bryan1117]

As I understand it, yes, this is exactly the type of event. Were any of your offices mentioning this potential in their AFD's? Nobody posted such if they were. 

No mention of it at all... which really surprises me due to the intensity of the brief snow burst and the strong winds, which combined for very low visibility for about 60-90 minutes.

 

The only thing I saw issued from the NWS-Omaha Valley were "Special Weather Statements." Why create a headline and then never use it?

[Bryan1117]

There is a thin band of yellow on radar approaching Cedar Rapids.  I hope it holds together.  It'd be nice to see a heavy burst.

It looks like the snow band is thinning out a little bit from what it was earlier this morning, however you should still get a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow and a lot of wind from this thing. 

[Iowawx]

There is a thin band of yellow on radar approaching Cedar Rapids.  I hope it holds together.  It'd be nice to see a heavy burst.

A snow squall warning was just issued for the CR/IC area. The snow is getting really close to the CR area. 

[Iowawx]

Current radar with the snow squall warning.

[Hawkeye]

Snow is coming down hard already on the west side.

[Hawkeye]

This line is moving very quickly.  The yellow is already past me.

[Hawkeye]

Here's the University of Iowa webcam to watch the heavy snow move through.

 

http://webcam.iowa.uiowa.edu/live/view.htm

[Bryan1117]

A snow squall warning was just issued for the CR/IC area. The snow is getting really close to the CR area. 

At least one weather service office in this region knows how to use the snow squall warning headline. 

[bud2380]

That was one heck of a snow squall. Can’t say I’ve ever heard of a snow squall warning in Iowa. Visibility was down to maybe 200 feet here on the SW side of CR. A light coating of snow fell and temps dropped into the mid 20s. That was a fun few minutes

[OmahaSnowFan]

At least one weather service office in this region knows how to use the snow squall warning headline. 

I believe we had one of those last year in Omaha or somewhere in eastern Nebraska.

[james1976]

Intense wording from NWS:

 

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel due to visibilities

below a quarter of a mile and icy roads. Several

accidents have been reported across central Iowa on major

roads and interstates.

[james1976]

Wow down to 19 already. Front means business

[jaster220]

I believe we had one of those last year in Omaha or somewhere in eastern Nebraska.

 

Perhaps, but it's the first time I've personally seen it on the hazards map for any state!

 

[jaster220]

NAM's not to impressive with the LES across SWMI, but the other SR models look pretty decent. 

 

 

 

Might look a little more like Dec for a couple of days.

 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.3" of snow.

[BMT]

well, that was fun!

[Bryan1117]

I believe we had one of those last year in Omaha or somewhere in eastern Nebraska.

I don't remember the Valley NWS issuing a Snow Squall Warning for the Omaha metro proper, however I might have missed it or maybe it was for another county in the area. I do know that there were ones issued last year in Central and Western Nebraska. 

 

Quite the pileup on Westbound I-80 near Altoona, IA (Des Moines metro), 50 cars in total with one serious injury being reported. I can believe it as I was out and about in the snow squall during the morning rush here in Omaha and driving conditions were quite awful. 

[hlcater]

That was one heck of a snow squall. Can’t say I’ve ever heard of a snow squall warning in Iowa. Visibility was down to maybe 200 feet here on the SW side of CR. A light coating of snow fell and temps dropped into the mid 20s. That was a fun few minutes

It got down to less than that in IC. I couldn't see Jessup hall from Macbride on the pentacrest at times when the wind was really blowing. Picked up a very quick 3/4".

[jaster220]

Both GRR & APX are late with their PM updates. Prolly coordination calls wrt any possible headlines they've been putting off for the LES portion of this event. 

 

They just did so as I was posting..

 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

First and main order of business in the 7 day forecast is whether
or not we need headlines for the winter weather expected over the
course of the next couple of days. The short answer is we will not
be issuing any winter headlines with this forecast update.
Confidence in seeing winter impacts is low and we therefore have
held off on Winter Weather headlines.

 

Prolly good news knowing how things work with them..

[Stacsh]

Both GRR & APX are late with their PM updates. Prolly coordination calls wrt any possible headlines they've been putting off for the LES portion of this event. 

 

They just did so as I was posting..

 

 

Prolly good news knowing how things work with them..

 

Disappointing for sure.  Was hoping for some decent LES a few days ago.  It will probably be non-event.  What a huge "arctic blast".  Nothing very cold in the long term. (obviously can change because all the models suck).   In fact, just as much chance at rain as snow in the next 7 days.  All these long-range forecasts are a joke.  Why even bother?  Any amateur  can guess with the same amount of accuracy as the "experts".  AND....rant over. 

[Niko]

Disappointing for sure.  Was hoping for some decent LES a few days ago.  It will probably be non-event.  What a huge "arctic blast".  Nothing very cold in the long term. (obviously can change because all the models suck).   In fact, just as much chance at rain as snow in the next 7 days.  All these long-range forecasts are a joke.  Why even bother?  Any amateur  can guess with the same amount of accuracy as the "experts".  AND....rant over. 

100% true!

 

[Niko]

Both GRR & APX are late with their PM updates. Prolly coordination calls wrt any possible headlines they've been putting off for the LES portion of this event. 

 

They just did so as I was posting..

 

 

Prolly good news knowing how things work with them..

......  

[St Paul Storm]

Pesky snow at MSP has me stuck in Atlanta for a few hours. My in-laws are saying about 3.5” at their place. Temp already down to 12F.

[james1976]

Kinda hard to measure cuz of the wind but I'm going with 0.3"

[jaster220]

This thread says it's thru the 11th so I'm guessing they meant to post the follow-on LES results in here as well. I brushed a solid 1/2" off my car a little after 7 am. Was nice to see legit snow again (at my place ofc) and it was really coming down between Marshall and Jackson for a while. Per the airport Obs it has kept up all morning to varying intensities so I may add to my total for this event. 

[jaster220]

LIke I said, positive surprises happen when my office down-plays an event..

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1147 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Lake effect snow this morning got a boost from a 500mb shortwave
and deeper moisture than was expected going into the event.
Snowfall totals range from a dusting to 3 inches across portions
of Western Lower Michigan. The upper shortwave and deeper moisture
will pull off to the east this afternoon, so we expect the
intensity in the snow bands to decrease. There may be an expansion
in area of snow showers, due to typical diurnal affects, but
additional snowfall this afternoon should be limited, inch or less
in most areas.

Going into tonight and Wednesday morning we are expecting
continued lake effect snow showers, especially in the lakeshore
counties with a westerly winds in the cloud layer of 20-25 knots.
There could be a flare up once again late tonight with another
shortwave working through the area. We will take a look at the
potential for any headlines with the afternoon forecast update. At
this point though we are not expecting significant accumulations.
Any headline would be based on travel disruption expectations for
the Wednesday morning commute.

 

[jaster220]

Looks like Marshall getting in on another nice streamer 

 

[Tom]

Looks like Marshall getting in on another nice streamer

 

20191210 1 pm Radar.png

I was gonna say, earlier I saw the radar and was going to post regarding this as some decent bands were coming off the lake. Nice little surprise. Throughout the morning I’ve been seeing mood flakes but now it’s completely sunny. Enjoy the snow!

[jaster220]

I was gonna say, earlier I saw the radar and was going to post regarding this as some decent bands were coming off the lake. Nice little surprise. Throughout the morning I’ve been seeing mood flakes but now it’s completely sunny. Enjoy the snow!

 

Thanks bud, can't wait to see what's happened back at the ranch. We've even had occasional nice rates here in Jackson, tho short duration stuff. Solidly below freezing so it has the winter feel for sure. 

[Stormy]

I don’t think yesterday’s snow was quite as intense, here unless I missed seeing the brunt since it was so brief. Had some huge flakes mixing in which I’ve noticed usually don’t cut down visibility as much as small flakes. I’ve seen higher rates numerous times. Only got a quarter inch of snow out of it. Some mets tweeted it was the first time they issued a snow squall warning for the area.

[jaster220]

  Much more than just a ground whitening here in Marshall. 2" measured for the day. Everything is nicely white. Due to the warm ground, fluffier snow, and day time event, much of it melted on paved surf's. Almost perfect with grass tips covered w/o the extra work to clean the driveway and walks. My decorations weren't lit when I came home tho. Apparently all that rain yesterday caused the GFI to get triggered. We're safely lit up again now! As mentioned, good things happen when my office poo-poo's an event 

[Mi_Matthew]

Much more than just a ground whitening here in Marshall. 2" measured for the day. Everything is nicely white. Due to the warm ground, fluffier snow, and day time event, much of it melted on paved surf's. Almost perfect with grass tips covered w/o the extra work to clean the driveway and walks. My decorations weren't lit when I came home tho. Apparently all that rain yesterday caused the GFI to get triggered. We're safely lit up again now! As mentioned, good things happen when my office poo-poo's an event

Congrats! I awoke this morning (6:45am) to what I can best describe as heavy snow pellets that changed over to some fat dendrites as I drove west into Oakland County for work. Looks like half inch at best but no measurement yet.

[jaster220]

Congrats! I awoke this morning (6:45am) to what I can best describe as heavy snow pellets that changed over to some fat dendrites as I drove west into Oakland County for work. Looks like half inch at best but no measurement yet.

 

Thanks!  I was stoked driving to work in the heavier bursts. Dendrites were pouring down under the street lamps. Just what I needed to help this Dec get outta the gutter. I've beaten last Dec as of today plus my office is bullish on another (non-headline worthy) re-invigorating CAA trough to sweep thru via a clipper to our north. It's illustrated pretty well here on the NAM12. Duration looks to be close to 18 hr window. Ofc, it won't snow that entire time, and this air is even drier than today's, but even another 1/2" refresher would be cool. 

 

[jaster220]

I will say one thing about this season, there's been ample surprises to go around. Apparently the under-forecast LES that started last night even caught the very savvy APX under-playing with a WWA while some in that region got easy Warning amounts. 

 

APX on tonight's LES potential:

 

Of course, the issue is, can we get warning amounts (8"+)? It is
possible, and based on this morning`s performance, where it looks
like we got about a foot in NE Kalkaska county, It is not
inconceivable.

 

I remember some of those better busts! Best one was a call for 2-4" that turned into 18". And it was NOT a LES event. That was amazing! Iirc, it was 1992 or 93

[Niko]

I will say one thing about this season, there's been ample surprises to go around. Apparently the under-forecast LES that started last night even caught the very savvy APX under-playing with a WWA while some in that region got easy Warning amounts. 

 

 

I remember some of those better busts! Best one was a call for 2-4" that turned into 18". And it was NOT a LES event. That was amazing! Iirc, it was 1992 or 93

WOW....major bust. Bet someone got fired there

[Niko]

  Much more than just a ground whitening here in Marshall. 2" measured for the day. Everything is nicely white. Due to the warm ground, fluffier snow, and day time event, much of it melted on paved surf's. Almost perfect with grass tips covered w/o the extra work to clean the driveway and walks. My decorations weren't lit when I came home tho. Apparently all that rain yesterday caused the GFI to get triggered. We're safely lit up again now! As mentioned, good things happen when my office poo-poo's an event 

Congrats buddy! Enjoy it.