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12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider


Tom

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The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

Exactly. I expect models to come within some type of agreement w one another when the energy is finally onshore. I think Friday is the day where we see major changes, if not w the Thursday 4pm package.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

 

My office:

 

Finally, pattern setting up for early next week bears watching as

chunk of energy dives south out of Northern Canada as a strong

Pacific jets pushes into North America. A number of GFS/Euro

ensemble members spin an area of low pressure up over the eastern

part of the U.S. by Tuesday, and some solutions spread rain and

snow into the Great Lakes.

 

:)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CMC provides a direct hit to me but not many others, hoping for more of a share the wealth storm.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Im telling ya bud, you are in the hot spot track of this storm. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.thumb.png.104f123d7c

Check-out that GB and that SER. I like what I see here for a major storm to brew!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Any opinions as to North Texas for Christmas? I have to travel north on the road that day.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The flow out ahead of this energy is too flat.  We need more ridging to bump up so this can cut and strengthen.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Come on Tom, get this snow and cold train rolling!

Clinton, you need to help!

The ups and downs of wx tracking...still got plenty of time. To see the EPS weaken the snow signal is somewhat of a concern but it could easily come back tonight.

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The ups and downs of wx tracking...still got plenty of time. To see the EPS weaken the snow signal is somewhat of a concern but it could easily come back tonight.

You are correct Tom.  Slow and steady is usually the best idea, but I know personally that can be difficult for me when you see a really good run and then a really bad run for our own particular area.  Hopefully by Friday we have a little better information about the storms over the weekend into early next week.

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Come on Tom, get this snow and cold train rolling!

Clinton, you need to help!

I'm trying, This storm has been predicted for quite some time, so here is what we know

Using the LRC we know there will be a storm Sunday and Monday.

Last cycle it produced 1.5-2in in our area (which was a record for that date)

It was + tilted but strengthened as it moved E/NE 

It was followed by a brief shot of some artic air

I think all is gonna be fine but we will know by tomorrow night 

 

Also forgot to add that my total precip for this system back in Oct was 1.3 inches

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TBH- Climo suggests the Euro is correct. 16" of snow in KC (or even 1/2 of that) in mid DEC is quite rare. Late Jan or early FEB its still quite rare. Even 16" of snow in DSM or MSP from one storm is about  1% of storms in DEC. I post some dreadful maps at times just for others to  "see' the other side and that most times (esp the last few DEC's) they do win out. Right now- and as I said earlier- I think this is way S and a non event for many and even a non event way S where even 1-2" is a big deal.  I think OK wins out with 1-3" on this event (for our poster there) and then it's a yawner until late DEC. Just my thoughts.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Clinton,

 

Lezak says that the pattern cycling tells us this will be a weak storm. He mentions it in his blog videos the last few days. He’s not even close to a 48 day cycle..he claims. So, you guys currently are reading the pattern differently.

 

In those same videos, he shows the higher snowfall models and says it’s possible. So, in other words, he has no forecast out for this weekend. But he says the LRC is the best forecasting tool yet we have no forecast for this weekend. Once the storm or no storm passes, he will claim the LRC knew this all along. I will then say, why didn’t you forecast this last Monday and end all the model speculation?

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Clinton,

 

Lezak says that the pattern cycling tells us this will be a weak storm. He mentions it in his blog videos the last few days. He’s not even close to a 48 day cycle..he claims. So, you guys currently are reading the pattern differently.

 

In those same videos, he shows the higher snowfall models and says it’s possible. So, in other words, he has no forecast out for this weekend. But he says the LRC is the best forecasting tool yet we have no forecast for this weekend. Once the storm or no storm passes, he will claim the LRC knew this all along. I will then say, why didn’t you forecast this last Monday and end all the model speculation?

I respect him and have learned a lot from listening to him and reading his blogs.  I'm not sure what he has going on right now, I love tracking storms and leaning about meteorology and a lot of what I have learned has came from listening to him.  

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Clinton,

 

Lezak says that the pattern cycling tells us this will be a weak storm. He mentions it in his blog videos the last few days. He’s not even close to a 48 day cycle..he claims. So, you guys currently are reading the pattern differently.

 

In those same videos, he shows the higher snowfall models and says it’s possible. So, in other words, he has no forecast out for this weekend. But he says the LRC is the best forecasting tool yet we have no forecast for this weekend. Once the storm or no storm passes, he will claim the LRC knew this all along. I will then say, why didn’t you forecast this last Monday and end all the model speculation?

My personal claim is for a 61-64 day cycle, but who knows?

 

I actually probably will be edged out of the snow til late month into January.

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i hope Iam wrong but with current teleconnections I don't see this being a storm (more than 2") for more than 20% of sub. I do my stuff- don;t post like TOM, but this is not looking good and it looks to be balmy until at least Christmas. The blocking is coming but the Zonal flow overwhelms it until late DEC.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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i hope Iam wrong but with current teleconnections I don't see this being a storm (more than 2") for more than 20% of sub. I do my stuff- don;t post like TOM, but this is not looking good and it looks to be balmy until at least Christmas. The blocking is coming but the Zonal flow overwhelms it until late DEC.

 

I agree.  Going to be a lot of green/brown Christmases.  

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

 

By Friday evening, a slightly stronger clipper-style wave will move
into the area. This will bring a punch of colder air and possibly
some light rain quickly changing to snow. Models, particularly the
NAM, show a signal for banded snowfall with localized amounts over
one inch possible. That said, forecasting the exact location of the
band is nearly impossible at this point. Therefore, the latest
forecast has introduced a fairly broad swath of less than 1 inch of
snowfall. Overall, impacts shouldn`t be significant, but some
localized areas could see slick and snow covered roads Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Behind this system, we will see much colder weather return for
the weekend. Saturday`s highs will only be in the 20s to mid 30s.

On Sunday, a deeper and slower-moving trough will traverse the
region, likely bringing measurable snow to portions of the area
Sunday into Sunday night. The location of this snow remains
uncertain, though. Ensemble guidance favors portions of Kansas for
the heaviest snow, but some deterministic model runs continue to
show snow accumulation as far north as the Nebraska sandhills.
Hopefully model agreement improves over the next day or two.

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