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April 2014 in the PNW


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It was mostly sunny everywhere I worked today except for a 2 minute hail shower in Ocean Shores, nowhere near cold and dark. I don't sugarcoat or skew things to suit my needs, it is what it is.

 

The weather didn't turn until I was almost home this evening.

Just saying you are a stoic person. Its an admirable trait.

 

You live in a region that drives away transplants because of its bad weather overall. And yet you only say how nice it is there. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just saying you are a stoic person. Its an admirable trait.

 

You live in a region that drives away transplants because of its bad weather overall. And yet you only say how nice it is there. :)

35 years and counting.

 

Just glad I am away from the beaches.  I will go out there for a huge storm sometimes or to visit the folks, but that is it.

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35 years and counting.

 

Just glad I am away from the beaches.  I will go out there for a huge storm sometimes or to visit the folks, but that is it.

 

 

That sums up the situation... its very desirable to be close to the beach in most coastal regions but not the WA coast.

 

Picture of a rainbow this afternoon.    Very few breaks here.   The flow was perfect to send in the rain all day and will be the same most of the week.    Almost an inch of rain here today and 8 inches for the month.  

 

10176036_626944687373743_654941585867143

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That sums up the situation... its very desirable to be close to the beach in most coastal regions but not the WA coast.

 

Picture of a rainbow this afternoon.    Very few breaks here.   The flow was perfect to send in the rain all day and will be the same most of the week.    Almost an inch of rain here today and 8 inches for the month.  

 

10176036_626944687373743_654941585867143

I worked in Seabrook today, unique little area, but absolutely beautiful this morning with all the cottages.  Its  different world right there on the coast, we may go stay a couple days there this summer and rent one of the homes.

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I worked in Seabrook today, unique little area, but absolutely beautiful this morning with all the cottages.  Its  different world right there on the coast, we may go stay a couple days there this summer and rent one of the homes.

 

We stopped there on the way to Quinault Lodge in the summer of 2012... after a short and disappointing stay in Ocean Shores.   Its nice in that very small community.    Not sure it will ever take off though given the weather there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I walked right by that very spot a week and a half ago. It was 65 degrees and the sun was setting. 

 

It swings wildly around here. You never know what next week will bring!

 

I'm sure the winter lovers enjoyed today. Graupel, sunbreaks every 30 minutes, and evening snow is their perfect April day. It has been quiet in that department so I'll give them a break ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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:lol:

 

You are so[-]stoic.

 

Reminds of people who live in Norway and say its just a little cold and dark there... no big deal.     People who live in crappy environments become that way... I am not there yet but should be by now.          

 

Had been going to say: ... Not all, apparently ..... And, That's my "opinion". (i.e. feeling.)

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Spring seems to mean sitting inside most evenings even though its light out well past 8 p.m. watching it rain while also watching the Mariners implode and prove once again that any optimism was unwarranted!        

 

I think I have come to dislike March - May more than the dead of winter around here.    I am sure Jim is right there with me on this one.   :)

 

Tomorrow evening:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp3.27.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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.. You have to be more clear regarding your sarcasm Tim. 
 
It's just not fair to other people reading through this thread. (You don't know who they are. All certainly.)
 
My advice, Just add a sarcasm alertsomething like (.. "Sarcasm Alert".), .. Then you can follow it with whatever "Tim-foolry" you like.

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00Z GFS is very different than previous runs for next week.   Seems to still get to a point where the pattern quiets down dramatically though.   Hopefully that theme can hang on.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Brett Anderson using mostly blue colors again on his latest update for the lower 48.    In fact... there is not one spot of red on any of the maps for the entire contiguous US.  

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-the-long-range-3/26029761

 

So sick of his insane warm bias!   If I don't point this out now... then it will surely be forgotten when the pattern across the US turns warm again and he is forced to use red colors.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Brett Anderson using mostly blue colors again on his latest update for the lower 48. In fact... there is not one spot of red on any of the maps for the entire contiguous US.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-the-long-range-3/26029761

 

So sick of his insane warm bias! If I don't point this out now... then it will surely be forgotten when the pattern across the US turns warm again and he is forced to use red colors. :)

That's the problem with Brett Anderson. He will only use blue when he is forced to in the (relatively) short range. Of course he has to illustrate what the models are overwhelmingly indicating when it is staring him right in the face.

 

When the forecast is longer range (ie his ridiculous Summer forecast) he goes pretty crazy with the red, though.

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That's the problem with Brett Anderson. He will only use blue when he is forced to in the (relatively) short range. Of course he has to illustrate what the models are overwhelmingly indicating when it is staring him right in the face.

 

When the forecast is longer range (ie his ridiculous Summer forecast) he goes pretty crazy with the red, though.

 

 

Again... he used maybe 20-30% coverage of red on his summer maps.   You just wanted more blue.

 

You hate warm weather and its really tough for you to separate your emotion from your responses.   You never get on these soapboxes unless its something to do with warm weather.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That's the problem with Brett Anderson. He will only use blue when he is forced to in the (relatively) short range. Of course he has to illustrate what the models are overwhelmingly indicating when it is staring him right in the face.

 

When the forecast is longer range (ie his ridiculous Summer forecast) he goes pretty crazy with the red, though.

Yep. The monthy Euro and NMME have been running way warm across the globe ( often by over 1C) due do differing spectral governing equations.

 

Even then, Brett Anderson's maps are still warmer than the raw output.

 

been running way warm across the globe, but it seems Brett Anderson

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Yep. The monthy Euro and NMME have been running way warm across the globe ( often by over 1C) due do differing spectral governing equations.

 

Even then, Brett Anderson's maps are still warmer than the raw output.

 

been running way warm across the globe, but it seems Brett Anderson

 

Yes... you illustrated this very well by demonstrating that he did not include Georgia in the cold anomaly area back in late February.   Despite having a huge chunk of the country east of the Rockies in deep blue.    Crazy warm bias!    

 

You are both on your soapboxes.   :)     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... you illustrated this very well by demonstrating that he did not include Georgia in the cold anomaly area back in late February. Despite having a huge chunk of the country east of the Rockies in deep blue. Crazy warm bias!

 

You are both on your soapboxes. :)

He had none of the NE or Gulf Coast states included. That's a lot of real estate.

 

Did you see his monthly interpretation for winter 2013-14? Pretty much all red, coast to coast.

 

He's 10X worse with the monthlies. Watch, I'll bet you $100 there will little to no blue anywhere on his next monthly update.

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He had none of the NE or Gulf Coast states included. That's a lot of real estate.

 

Did you see his monthly interpretation for winter 2013-14? Pretty much all red, coast to coast.

 

He's 10X worse with the monthlies. Watch, I'll bet you $100 there will little to no blue anywhere on his next monthly update.

 

 

Things also change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anywho.. real wet day out there!

 

 

Thankfully dry here for now... a short break in a very wet period here.    Its almost strange to see dry pavement on my driveway at this point.    

 

Really annoying that Saturday has to be wet with the front well offshore during the day.    Its like nature is saying... don't worry about the placement of the front.   It will just rain in between fronts as well.      A big 'screw you' from Mother Nature.   :) 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp3.84.0000.gif

 

 

But hey... we can enjoy Sunday right??

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/pcp3.108.0000.gif

 

 

Nope.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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With your guysTim, Jesse, and Phil'sview of Brett Andersen's broader-brush impressions where looking at main temps and precip. potential with looking more forward [being such as it is.], .. What is there, that you're aware of, to compare them with. 
 
Phil's mentioned "raw" data, even a few things somewhat, more in particularly above. Where's that sitting. ? And what you referring to more specifically, Phil. ? .And with this, are there in fact other either whether individuals or entities that do the same. ?

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That deep trough forming over the central US might be our ace in the hole next week.    Putting us finally in a default sweet spot for nice weather for awhile.  

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm enjoying the rain after a very long dry spell. :)

 

I'm glad its also raining up in higher elevations. While being spared from snow wasn't necessarily good for the mountains, I certainly enjoyed it.

 

Had 55 / 33 today. Rain started in the late afternoon, it appears to now be breaking up a bit. Will not end up with any snow. 43 degrees now, low should be upper 30's.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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SEA is now at 18.99 inches of rain for the February-April period.

 

This is now officially the wettest February-April period ever at SEA.

 

The previous record was 18.97 inches set in 1972.

 

Obviously with 6 days to go the record will be padded some more... its raining at SEA now.   SEA is also already above normal for April with 3.29 inches.    In 1972 (a year with a developing strong Nino)... the tide turned right as May began with much better weather.    It only rained on 7 days that month at my location which was vast improvement over the the previous 3 months.    Numerous days in the 70s here in May of 1972... and peak temp of 95 towards the end of the month.     

 

I wonder if maybe some ridging would be the next logical pattern evolution despite Jesse's protests??     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA is now at 18.99 inches of rain for the February-April period.

 

This is now officially the wettest February-April period ever at SEA.

 

The previous record was 18.97 inches set in 1972.

 

Obviously with 6 days to go the record will be padded some more... its raining at SEA now. SEA is also already above normal for April with 3.29 inches.

 

I wonder if maybe some ridging would be the next logical pattern evolution despite Jesse's protests?? :)

1972-73 analog!

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Possible scenario... we essentially begin the warm season next week with a warm May - August period.    And then with a strong Nino developing... we have an early and chilly fall culminating in our usual December cold/snowy spell typical of a Nino.   Then a mild spring next year.

 

Just a thought.

 

One that Jesse might be able to get behind.   :)

 

Update... SEA up to 19.06 inches now and crossing the 19-inch threshold for the first time in history for the Feb-Apr period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We get it. It's been an average rainy season with a wet tail-end.

 

 

Wettest tail end in history for SEA!

 

Actually... if you say the real rainy season is Nov-Apr then it was the wettest second half of the rainy season in history at SEA.   Not just the tail end.   A dry first half and an insanely wet second half.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Love the trend for next week...

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014042412!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm glad its also raining up in higher elevations. While being spared from snow wasn't necessarily good for the mountains, I certainly enjoyed it.

 

Had 55 / 33 today. Rain started in the late afternoon, it appears to now be breaking up a bit. Will not end up with any snow. 43 degrees now, low should be upper 30's.

The mountains in this area above 3,500 had a fairly significant snow event yesterday.
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Scott Sistek picked up on the record surpassed this morning for the wettest Feb-Apr on record at SEA:

 

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/As-the-rain-keeps-pouring-down-Seattle-sets-rainfall-record--256562931.html

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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