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April 2014 in the PNW

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#951
FroYoBro

Posted 30 April 2014 - 05:37 AM

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Looks like we got hacked again... hopefully no virus.

 

 

Quite the hacker. He was able to get into the main frame and post new topics. 



#952
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 07:14 AM

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Just shy of 60 at PDX as of 8am. Gonna be a warm one.

#953
Brennan

Posted 30 April 2014 - 08:59 AM

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I know I've taken a lot of flack for OT posts, but I hope this is ok to post here.

Current Great Lakes ice coverage is literally nuking records. Pretty amazing to see. Some locations are seeing the coldest Jan-Apr period on record, going back to the 1800s.

20140428180000_cvchdctgl_0007639787.gif

Not hard to understand why. Raw temps from all Midwestern stations within the USHCN network (unadjusted), graphed by Steven Goddard:

screenshot-at-apr-29-16-00-01.png

That is unbelievable. How can one sector of the country have such a tendency for cold for such a long period of time? I mean, coldest, largest ice coverage for the G.L. region in recorded history by a good margin. How possible is it that a period like that occurs over the West in the near future??? We just get extremely wet, or extremely warm, or extremely dry periods. The only thing we seem to escape is cold! Damnit. 

Muggy and 87*F here. 



#954
iFred

Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:29 AM

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Looks like we got hacked again... hopefully no virus.

 

Untitled.jpg

 

Not hacking, just spamming. Fixed it for now, I'll have to fix up some code later today though.



#955
richard mann

Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:00 AM

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-

Its official... the Canadian model is now superior to the GFS.   
 
The ECMWF reigns supreme of course.
 
http://cliffmass.blo...-in-global.html


I follow Cliff Mass's blog regularly, so had seen this.
 
I wonder who's next .. (Or "what" is.) in line, behind us. ..
 
My own thought regarding this idea, even adventwith having followed this theme looked at more in particularly by Prof. Mass within his blog for some time now / .. if not more in line with the idea that more money should be put into strengthening the main computing capability of our present modelsor in effect more, a more dynamic fine-tuning of what's already being looked at main parameterizations wise, ... certainly a decent enough idea (.. And just to be clear here, my not being a Republican ... looking to "save" money with what I've pointed to here.)is that, ...
 
.. I wish I could find some better way to conveyor channel perhaps, toward the idea of communicatingwhat I've learned more personally, with time where having studied greater colder air mass movement, to someone at .. or even examining more closely the different main inputs at .. the main parameterization level. -(.. As grandiose as this may sound, I should perhaps add here.)
 
Were anyone following what I've posted here since and with my having begun to this past winter, projections wise dealing with greater (broader main.) colder air mass movement and distribution more critically, they would find I'm sure, that in many instances I've surpassed "the models".
 
.. This, I would estimate for the most part, generally, basically to an extent more or less in line with the level of "money" having been put into improving the "computing power" of whichever of them. 
 
In the past, and with being true to the statement that I affix to the bottom of most of my (granted certainly, fairly basic) projections posted regularly, i.e. only later, more subsequent to whatever main timeframe's having passed, .. with having checked what I've projected myself, and with having mainly considered a more general propensity where looking at main colder air's main direction of movement together with more general distribution both more latitudinal and longitudinal, I've found that I've quite often surpassed the "GFS" model certainly. 

http://www.hpc.ncep....ml#verification
 
Essentially, it quite often misses the main turning points, or transitions, that I work to point to as main focuses of what I project where looking at future movement of colder air mass whether more latitudinal or longitudinal. Of course translating to what shows up more pressure-related.


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#956
chinook

Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:06 AM

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Currently 76 degrees.  Yesterday it was 67 at this time. 

 

Awesome day.  Shorts on.  Cold beer @ 6.



#957
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 12:27 PM

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We are running a little cooler out here than the I-5 corridor. East winds are keeping temperatures down and humidity low. Currently breezy and 72, Dp 36.

#958
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2014 - 12:56 PM

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First 80-degree reading of the year here.    Right at 80 now.

 

The UW temp in Seattle is at 81.



#959
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 02:23 PM

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81 at PDX as of 3pm. First 80+ day since September 19th.

 

Also was 52 degrees there this morning. Their first 50+ low since November 18th.

 

76 degrees out here currently, after a low of 49.



#960
chinook

Posted 30 April 2014 - 03:01 PM

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85 with a North wind at 14.



#961
GHweatherChris

Posted 30 April 2014 - 03:31 PM

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84 here.  Spectacular.

 

Hoquiam is at 82, impressive.



#962
AnthonyC

Posted 30 April 2014 - 03:32 PM

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SEA is at 81f as of last hour.  Not bad at all for April 30.

 

Enjoy it now, as long range GFS forecast is showing quite the change starting Friday...and lasting for the forseeable future.



#963
AnthonyC

Posted 30 April 2014 - 03:35 PM

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Pressure gradients are still solidly offshore for all locations...including the coast.  So I expect tomorrow will be either as warm, or slightly warmer, than today - at least inland.  But even the coast looks toasty.



#964
iFred

Posted 30 April 2014 - 05:07 PM

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The GFS shows highs in the upper 40s at face value. Curious if we have ever had a year with a very cold May?

#965
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2014 - 05:15 PM

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The GFS shows highs in the upper 40s at face value. Curious if we have ever had a year with a very cold May?

 

 

Nahh... GFS MOS and the WRF shows low to mid 60s for the next week starting on Saturday with showers almost every day.



#966
iFred

Posted 30 April 2014 - 05:18 PM

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Nahh... GFS MOS and the WRF shows low to mid 60s for the next week starting on Saturday with showers almost every day.

 

I was looking at the reliable Meteostar output for 300+ hours plus. I am well aware that you would hate to see such a thing, but you would have to admit that if you loved anomalous weather, than 40's in May would be something to see.

 

(I know that this has the same odds as for verifying as a 384h blizzard, but let me dream.)



#967
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2014 - 05:25 PM

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I was looking at the reliable Meteostar output for 300+ hours plus. I am well aware that you would hate to see such a thing, but you would have to admit that if you loved anomalous weather, than 40's in May would be something to see.

 

(I know that this has the same odds as for verifying as a 384h blizzard, but let me dream.)

 

 

Honestly sounds like a complete nightmare for 99% of the population.   :)

 

Nobody on here likes summer in the winter... we certainly don't need winter in the warm season.    May - September is what most people live for around here.    



#968
Poulsbo Snowman

Posted 30 April 2014 - 06:34 PM

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i absolutely love "out of season" anomalies--that's part of what makes this an interesting hobby.  Without speaking for others, I would enjoy a 65 degree day in January as much as I would enjoy 45 in July.  Just gotta take things as they come since we can't control any of it.


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#969
Tyler Mode

Posted 30 April 2014 - 06:37 PM

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In the 4 short years I've had my weather station here in Battle Ground, the temp on April 30th hadn't been above 59 degrees...until today of course.

82.2 here at my house.



#970
GHweatherChris

Posted 30 April 2014 - 06:39 PM

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Still 80 here.

 

Mom in Westport says its still upper 70's there.  Impressive little warm/hot(for the time of year) streak all the way to coast.

 

Most summer heatwaves don't even last more than a day or two out there and they should have 3 in a row.



#971
luminen

Posted 30 April 2014 - 07:02 PM

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86/62 today in Newport, Oregon and 91/55 for North Bend, Oregon.

 

You don't see that too often...much less in April/May.  :o



#972
iFred

Posted 30 April 2014 - 07:06 PM

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I don't mind being a part of the 1%


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#973
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 08:28 PM

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Still 80 here.

 

Mom in Westport says its still upper 70's there.  Impressive little warm/hot(for the time of year) streak all the way to coast.

 

Most summer heatwaves don't even last more than a day or two out there and they should have 3 in a row.

 

It's the very fact that this heatwave isn't a standard summertime setup that is giving this warm spell such longevity at the coast. Much more of an autumn like pattern with the sustained offshore flow and cool high pressure diving into the middle of the country.



#974
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 08:30 PM

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The GFS shows highs in the upper 40s at face value. Curious if we have ever had a year with a very cold May?

 

Lots of them. See the 1950 thru early 60s. Or even more recently 2010 and 2011. :)



#975
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 08:34 PM

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79/50 out here today. Just got back from a fantastic late afternoon hike at Rowena Crest. The wildflowers are in full force.



#976
Deweydog

Posted 30 April 2014 - 08:47 PM

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Warmest on record for April at Astoria.  Same for Hoquiam and Quillayute.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#977
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:01 PM

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Warmest on record for April at Astoria.  Same for Hoquiam and Quillayute.  

 

 

What years were beaten out?    Does this set-up remind you have any similar situation in late April and early May?

 

I know it was this hot last year about 5 days later.



#978
Deweydog

Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:02 PM

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What years were beaten out?    Does this set-up remind you have any similar situation in late April and early May?

 

I know it was this hot last year about 5 days later.

 

Horrible ones!  Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

 

This is just a transitory, dynamic pattern.  Taking anything from it at this point for the long term is dumb.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#979
Deweydog

Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:09 PM

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The 91 at North Bend, OR sticks out also.  

 

They've been as warm as 88 as early as March 9th, 1934 though!  That's ridiculous. 


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#980
Deweydog

Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:12 PM

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Still 74 degrees here with a decent downslope still in progress.  Very unusual for this location.  Last time I remember one persisting like this during a warm event was May 2008, although we weren't quite living this far off the beaten path then.  

 

Sign of things to come?  Or possibly a sign of different things to come?  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#981
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:23 PM

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Horrible ones! Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

This is just a transitory, dynamic pattern. Taking anything from it at this point for the long term is dumb.


More offshore flow than normal this April? At least out there.

That and mild nights overall probably clinched it. For a minute there I thought PDX had a shot at making it into the Top 5 Warmest.

#982
snow_wizard

Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:00 PM

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Too bad the WRF shows the weekend being a total washout...at least for the Seattle area.  The timing couldn't have been much worse.

 

The warmth today was certainly freakish for this time of year!


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#983
Skagit Weather

Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:21 PM

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Beautiful day up here although the sea breeze kept the temperature just below 70F. It looks like tomorrow will be warmer with temperature closer to the mid 70s.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 40 mph (2015, 2012)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"| 2016-17: 8.0"

2017-18: 0.9" (11/3: 0.1", 11/5: 0.5", 12/25: 0.01", 2/22: 0.3")


#984
snow_wizard

Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:41 PM

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Beautiful day up here although the sea breeze kept the temperature just below 70F. It looks like tomorrow will be warmer with temperature closer to the mid 70s.

 

Amazing how much marine influence you have there.  I had low 80s with a dp below freezing today.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#985
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 May 2014 - 04:46 PM

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Beautiful 82F here in south Surrey of metro Vancouver. Loving this mild stretch. Eat your heart out, easterners!

 

Looks like some great signals for a warm summer out west ala 2009!



#986
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2014 - 05:38 PM

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Beautiful 82F here in south Surrey of metro Vancouver. Loving this mild stretch. Eat your heart out, easterners!

 

Looks like some great signals for a warm summer out west ala 2009!

 

Like what?