April 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Patio furniture uncovered and ready to go...

 

[Jesse]

Patio furniture uncovered and ready to go...

 

Time for a rainy May/June!

[TT-SEA]

Time for a rainy May/June!

No doubt. Just have to put up the cushions when it rains. Have to enjoy the nice days in between though.

[TT-SEA]

I hope the high clouds moving in now can keep the temperature up tonight.

 

Frost is NO good right now for us that actually have gardens and other plants.   

 

It easy to identify the people on here who grow nothing in their yard ever!

[TT-SEA]

The cold is also harmful for the health and welfare of the wildlife! Those who wish for snow should also be ashamed as the untold damage from salting agents and fenderbenders should outweigh the joy one might take in a single flake falling from the sky.

 

 

If they grew anything in their yard at all... they would immediately stop cheering for frost beginning in April.    Like Jim with windstorms... he used to love it and then it caused a mess in his yard and it affected him directly and now he hates strong wind events.

 

I can tell those people who do not grow anything in their yard.    Those people who are cheering for a killing freeze even in June.  

[TT-SEA]

The IR loop shows a pretty good area of high and mid level clouds streaming in now... that should help tonight.

[richard mann]

The cold is also harmful for the health and welfare of the wildlife! Those who wish for snow should also be ashamed as the untold damage from salting agents and fenderbenders should outweigh the joy one might take in a single flake falling from the sky.

 

I'd say that as far as wildlife goes, most certainly, are acclimatized to wherever they are. Domesticated pets, maybe some livestock, might be subject to colder temps.  And with this, were considering the fender-benders, and if looking at the idea more abstractly, so are we—or perhaps better here, so should we be. 

 

— I've never liked the idea of salt being used as traction aid. Some areas (states.) use sand. Oregon of course, uses cider.

[GHweatherChris]

Beautiful day in Seaside, just gorgeous.

[Jesse]

The IR loop shows a pretty good area of high and mid level clouds streaming in now... that should help tonight.

Root against frost, root against rain, root against snow. I hope that you find your boring weather paradise some day. Where the natural world never gets in the way of absurd human endeavors like having a perfectly manicured garden with 0% hardy native species that are used a normal late season frost or two.

[Jesse]

Beautiful day out here. High of 61 after a low of 44. With low dps and clear skies regionally, tonight could get quite cold! Good thing all of the species in my yard are hardy natives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Please, it frosts up here well into May many years. Things grow just fine. I just don't plant corn and pumpkins in April. 

[snow_wizard]

Beautiful day out here. High of 61 after a low of 44. With low dps and clear skies regionally, tonight could get quite cold! Good thing all of the species in my yard are hardy natives.

 

The latest progs look really interesting for Friday night.  Chilly air mass with some continental flavor to it.

 

It will be interesting to see how much of a factor the clouds might be up here tonight.  It looks cloudier on the sat pic than it actually is here right now.

[Jesse]

The latest progs look really interesting for Friday night. Chilly air mass with some continental flavor to it.

 

It will be interesting to see how much of a factor the clouds might be up here tonight. It looks cloudier on the sat pic than it actually is here right now.

Agreed. Looks to be a decent period for chilly nights through the weekend.

 

Tim's comments about cloud cover tonight are 100% trolling so I wouldn't take them too seriously.

[Phil]

If they grew anything in their yard at all... they would immediately stop cheering for frost beginning in April. Like Jim with windstorms... he used to love it and then it caused a mess in his yard and it affected him directly and now he hates strong wind events.

 

I can tell those people who do not grow anything in their yard. Those people who are cheering for a killing freeze even in June.

I doubt that. I grow plenty of things in my yard, and love anomalous, destructive windstorms (to an extent), even after Sandy and the historic Derecho.

 

I think I posted pics of what the derecho did to my house... I'd do it all again, even though it blew out my front door, ripped shutters off my house, and buzz-cut the entire forest behind my house. The thrill is the game.

 

Both events permanently changed the landscape around here, fwiw..good read from a local resident:

 

http://deepcreeklakeproperty.com/2013/05/post-hurricane-sandy-swallow-falls-state-park-update/

 

http://deepcreeklakeproperty.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Swallow-Falls-Sandy-Damsge-6.jpg

 

http://deepcreeklakeproperty.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Swallow-Falls-Sandy-Distruction.jpg

 

 

http://deepcreeklakeproperty.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Swallow-Falls-Sandy-Damage2.jpg

 

 

Sandy's gusts were consistently 90-105mph above the inversion (above 2700ft). The added weight of the snow was just too much for them to handle. I'd do it again in a heartbeat

[TT-SEA]

Agreed. Looks to be a decent period for chilly nights through the weekend.

 

Tim's comments about cloud cover tonight are 100% trolling so I wouldn't take them too seriously.

 

 

Not so.    I have actually been watching the satellite in hopes of something other crystal clear skies tonight.

 

http://s18.postimg.org/ptwuugn55/IR4_NW.gif

 

Any amount of high cloudiness helps out... and the observations are partly to mostly cloudy now.    

 

There is definitely something... Jim might be in a clear spot for the moment. 

[Phil]

Wow, check this out.

 

The snowpack is 19-29ft (6-9m) deep in parts of Nova Scotia right now.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2604301

[TT-SEA]

Wow, check this out.

 

The snowpack is 19-29ft (6-9m) deep in parts of Nova Scotia right now.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2604301

 

 

That is crazy.   Its the middle of April.

 

I see its in the upper 60s right now in Minneapolis... going to drop fast though with a front coming in.   But their snow is completely gone now.  

[Tyler Mode]

Today's weather is a prime example of a day that can, in the record books, look like a day with rain, when in actuality, the sun was pretty much out from sunrise to sunset.  0.10" fell today.

Sometimes in the winter it takes a day of drizzle and clouds to accomplish that!

It was a great day with all of the sun, but relatively cool temps, I had a high of 60 with a NW wind to 17 mph.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's weather is a prime example of a day that can, in the record books, look like a day with rain, when in actuality, the sun was pretty much out from sunrise to sunset.  0.10" fell today.

 

Sometimes in the winter it takes a day of drizzle and clouds to accomplish that!

 

It was a great day with all of the sun, but relatively cool temps, I had a high of 60 with a NW wind to 17 mph.

 

I agree it was an extremely pleasant day!

[TT-SEA]

Today's weather is a prime example of a day that can, in the record books, look like a day with rain, when in actuality, the sun was pretty much out from sunrise to sunset.  0.10" fell today.

 

Sometimes in the winter it takes a day of drizzle and clouds to accomplish that!

 

It was a great day with all of the sun, but relatively cool temps, I had a high of 60 with a NW wind to 17 mph.

 

 

I was thinking the exact same thing when I saw .05 here overnight.

 

Many times a disgusting and damp day from start to finish in the winter ends up with the same total.    

 

I also mentioned this morning that the angle of this front was ideal to allow quick clearing.    This front was very Midwest-like.   Well-defined and when it ends... it just ends.    And the next day is sunny.

[TT-SEA]

High clouds about to clear.   They are breaking up offshore.

 

Temperature is actually going up slowly here right now... was 45 now 46.

 

Suspect that trend will reverse itself when the high clouds move away.

[snow_wizard]

Apparently it's asking too much to have a clear night when we have a cool / dry air mass in place.  Have I made it abundantly clear how much I detest this climate?

 

I don't know what has changed for me over the past few years, but I just can't stand it here much of the time now.

[snow_wizard]

I doubt that. I grow plenty of things in my yard, and love anomalous, destructive windstorms (to an extent), even after Sandy and the historic Derecho.

 

I think I posted pics of what the derecho did to my house... I'd do it all again, even though it blew out my front door, ripped shutters off my house, and buzz-cut the entire forest behind my house. The thrill is the game.

 

Both events permanently changed the landscape around here, fwiw..good read from a local resident:

 

http://deepcreeklakeproperty.com/2013/05/post-hurricane-sandy-swallow-falls-state-park-update/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sandy's gusts were consistently 90-105mph above the inversion (above 2700ft). The added weight of the snow was just too much for them to handle. I'd do it again in a heartbeat

 

That doesn't look even remotely fun to me.  I like cold and snow...destruction not so much.

 

We had damage like that just a couple of miles from here that resulted from a mountain wave wind event several years ago.  I was glad the worst of it missed us.

[BLI snowman]

High clouds about to clear.   They are breaking up offshore.

 

Temperature is actually going up slowly here right now... was 45 now 46.

 

Suspect that trend will reverse itself when the high clouds move away.

 

I'm on the edge of my seat!

[TT-SEA]

Apparently it's asking too much to have a clear night when we have a cool / dry air mass in place.  Have I made it abundantly clear how much I detest this climate?

 

I don't know what has changed for me over the past few years, but I just can't stand it here much of the time now.

 

 

Over the last 2 years... I have gone the opposite way.     There has been more sunshine overall and the summers of 2012 and 2013 were very nice.     Give me a decent summer and fall here and I can tolerate much more the rest of the year.  

 

2010 was the worst weather year I have ever experienced anywhere in my life.   And the 3 days of cold in November meant nothing to me at that point... plus that cold event froze my pipes and flooded the house and garage!    Worst... year... ever.     

 

But I am sure there is another 2-3 year period of complete crap coming up soon!

[TT-SEA]

The latest progs look really interesting for Friday night.  Chilly air mass with some continental flavor to it.

 

 

Don't look at the WRF total cloud cover map for Friday night.   Clouds roll in Friday... and then focus over the central Sound Friday night.

 

The skies finally clear around 8 a.m. Saturday per that model.   The ECMWF takes until about noon Saturday.

[GHweatherChris]

39 at Forks already.  I really hope they have their crops covered and prepared.

 

Perfect evening in Seaside.

[Guest Monty67]

Tim will like this long range, others not so much, and some people will ***** that Brett loves his red crayon more than his blue one. Personally, I would love to see a Very warm dry summer.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-computer-model-monthly-outlooks-through-summer-2014-1/25487519

[TT-SEA]

Tim will like this long range, others not so much, and some people will ***** that Brett loves his red crayon more than his blue one. Personally, I would love to see a Very warm dry summer.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-computer-model-monthly-outlooks-through-summer-2014-1/25487519

 

 

Love it!

 

And both models show the same thing for us.    Not just warm... very warm.  

[Black Hole]

I like that outlook too. Pretty hot spring and early summer, but lots of monsoonal action for me later in the summer.

[Jesse]

PDX had their warmest summer on record five whole years ago!!! And SEA had theirs ten months ago. We are so due for a warm and dry summer around here!!! :(

[Phil]

Tim will like this long range, others not so much, and some people will ***** that Brett loves his red crayon more than his blue one. Personally, I would love to see a Very warm dry summer.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-computer-model-monthly-outlooks-through-summer-2014-1/25487519

The ECMWF has been running on average about 0.3K too warm (globally) out to 2 months, and 0.5K too warm out 4 months..just FWIW

 

The NMM ensemble is useless..might be a good model for Venus..but definitely not Earth..

[Jesse]

The ECMWF has been running on average about 0.3K too warm (globally) out to 2 months, and 0.5K too warm out 4 months..just FWIW

 

The NMM ensemble is useless..might be a good model for Venus..but definitely not Earth..

 

Yeah, those maps are an utter joke. Not a single cold anomaly forecast anywhere from the Arctic Ocean to Central America for an entire three month period. I'm sure that will verify with flying colors.

[Jesse]

Love it!

 

And both models show the same thing for us.    Not just warm... very warm.  

 

Too bad both of those maps are complete garbage. And what does it matter that they show warmth over us? They show it everywhere. Apparently a hot ridge of high pressure will cover the entire Western Hemisphere this summer.

[Phil]

Yeah, those maps are an utter joke. Not a single cold anomaly forecast anywhere from the Arctic Ocean to Central America for an entire three month period. I'm sure that will verify with flying colors.

Yep. These climate models cannot predict "cold" anomalies in the extended ranges due to some of the spectral/transfer physics incorporated into them to account for CO2 increase. Any modeler will admit that..I know several..unfortunately it's "procedure" to apply the consensus equations into the modeling.

 

Here's what the ECMWF was predicting for this winter, back in September.. :lol:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-computer-model-forecast-through-february-2014/17586203

[Jesse]

Yep. These climate models cannot predict "cold" anomalies in the extended ranges due to some of the spectral/transfer physics incorporated into them to account for CO2 increase. Any modeler will admit that..I know several..unfortunately it's "procedure" to apply the consensus equations into the modeling.

 

Here's what the ECMWF was predicting for this winter, back in September.. :lol:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-computer-model-forecast-through-february-2014/17586203

 

 

What a joke. I wish people would refrain before posting complete trash maps like those and peddling them as fact.

 

Our "very dry" February sure worked out! Same with our blowtorch December with seasonable to mild weather all winter across the northern tier.

 

Brett Anderson is a global warming alarmist hack.

[Phil]

Here's the NNME forecast for winter 2013-14. Really, it might be the worst model ever..worse than the monthy ECMWF. The only reason Brett posts it is because it loves to torch the globe.

 

What occurred was actually the EXACT opposite of it's forecast...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/very-warm-and-humid-start-to-the-week-in-the-east/15176236

 

http://catchmypicture.com/ePfhuW.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Over the last 2 years... I have gone the opposite way.     There has been more sunshine overall and the summers of 2012 and 2013 were very nice.     Give me a decent summer and fall here and I can tolerate much more the rest of the year.  

 

2010 was the worst weather year I have ever experienced anywhere in my life.   And the 3 days of cold in November meant nothing to me at that point... plus that cold event froze my pipes and flooded the house and garage!    Worst... year... ever.     

 

But I am sure there is another 2-3 year period of complete crap coming up soon!

 

Weather grades by year:

 

2008: A

2009: B+

2010: D

2011: D

2012: C-

2013: B-

 

2008 was probably the best year since 1985.

 

1999 and 2001 sucked the biggest balls here.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yep. These climate models cannot predict "cold" anomalies in the extended ranges due to some of the spectral/transfer physics incorporated into them to account for CO2 increase. Any modeler will admit that..I know several..unfortunately it's "procedure" to apply the consensus equations into the modeling.

 

Here's what the ECMWF was predicting for this winter, back in September.. :lol:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-computer-model-forecast-through-february-2014/17586203

I think the only forecast from that model run that actually verified was the warmth and dryness for the West Coast in January.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Too bad both of those maps are complete garbage. And what does it matter that they show warmth over us? They show it everywhere. Apparently a hot ridge of high pressure will cover the entire Western Hemisphere this summer.

 

If El Nino develops later this spring and summer, the western portion of the country especially the Southwest will probably be warmer than average, while the eastern part of the country, especially the Midwest and Northeast, will probably be cooler than average for the summer months. That kind of pattern often sets up with a developing El Nino. Just like you said, the entire Western Hemisphere will not be warmer than normal and there is WAY too much red on those maps!