Jump to content

December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter


clintbeed1993

Recommended Posts

December has been a major DUD to all our chagrin. Can we close it with a bang? Unfortunately temps remain marginal with very little cold air available for this storm to work with.  For a lot of you it's looking like a rain event.  However, some further west could see heavy snow as has been consistently depicted on the GFS for several days. EURO took a step towards it tonight after having a much weaker solution for days.  Will we see this bad boy phase into a powerhouse?  Will the GFS finally score a coup and regain lost confidence?  High drama is what it's all about in storm tracking and we have it in spades here! Should be a fun one to track the next few days.  At least there's something to track during this blowtorch of failure Christmas period. Discuss

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even though the GFS has its flaws, it has done a good job in the Day 5+ range of sniffing out a storm.  Just like the last system that hit the Plains/S MW/OHV region, the GFS/GEFS were the first to jump on the storm system.  Obliviously, track and intensity did not play out exactly but the model got the general idea of a storm threat.  IMO, it is doing the same thing and has sniffed out this storm potential and to see the Euro/EPS trending that way we have to give the American model some credit.  Inside Day 5, the King is money so eventually I'd put more stock into that model and the higher rez.

 

With that being said, looks like some of our members out west and up into MN/WI are in-line to cash in...

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_156.png

 

06z GEFS...

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_162.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even though the GFS has its flaws, it has done a good job in the Day 5+ range of sniffing out a storm.  Just like the last system that hit the Plains/S MW/OHV region, the GFS/GEFS were the first to jump on the storm system.  Obliviously, track and intensity did not play out exactly but the model got the general idea of a storm threat.  IMO, it is doing the same thing and has sniffed out this storm potential and to see the Euro/EPS trending that way we have to give the American model some credit.  Inside Day 5, the King is money so eventually I'd put more stock into that model and the higher rez.

 

With that being said, looks like some of our members out west and up into MN/WI are in-line to cash in...

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_156.png

 

06z GEFS...

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_162.png

 

LRC is a great tool when the models are crazy like they have been lately.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

LRC is a great tool when the models are crazy like they have been lately.

No doubt about it...I'm hoping the GFS is right and provides a chance for some back-wash snows around here.  I won't get to excited about though just yet.  Hopefully we start seeing some consistency in today's runs but it's nice to see the Euro correct its bias by kicking out the energy quicker.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No doubt about it...I'm hoping the GFS is right and provides a chance for some back-wash snows around here.  I won't get to excited about though just yet.  Hopefully we start seeing some consistency in today's runs but it's nice to see the Euro correct its bias by kicking out the energy quicker.

The AO is taking a quick dive down the next few days maybe that will promote more cold air to work into this storm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the GFS's further SE version works out, I'll have to find a way to intercept some of the white gold in NMI during my holiday stay-cation. Newly amped Euro misses the Mitt completely. Even the UP magnet fails on those Control maps.  :unsure:

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6z EC has the storm ongoing at hr 144 and really beefed up amounts.  More changes to come I'm sujre.

1577685600-Es5f4uITUS8.png

1577685600-1q6q6Xsezz8.png

 

Actually, the SLP placement/strength isn't that different from last night's GFS but the wrap-around depicted by the ICON/GFS/NAM is MIA on the Euro.

 

Intercepting THIS would make my season brighter

 

20191224 0z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_138.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I may have to issue the GFS a formal apology.  Although we have seen it flop many times already this season.  Regardless, it's going to be a depressing storm in eastern Iowa as we are looking at some very heavy rain, while areas to our NW get hit again.  GFS painting widespread 1-2" of rain across a good chunk of Iowa.  Wow.  

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

i think it's safe to say that there will not be enough cold air to work with this far south to give me any hope of appreciable snow.  I appreciate the GFS trying to throw in 2-3" of wrap around snow here, but I can't recall a single wrap around snow event that produced over an inch of snow in my lifetime in Eastern Iowa.  That just doesn't happen here.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian also doing the dumb wrap around snow in Iowa post system, with some heavy totals.  Sorry, not buying that unless it's within 48 hours and models still show that.  I'm not even sure how it's creating this.  All the main energy is shunted well off to the NE, unless there is some inverted trough hanging behind.

 

gem_asnow24_ncus_21.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The UK just caved hard, too.  The rest of the models are suddenly digging the northern stream energy much farther west, just like the GFS, so the northern energy can now dive down into the backside of the southern energy.

 

Wow, congrats, GFS!

  • Like 5

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno, these rapidly deepening and well phased systems can have some serious wrap around sometimes. I wouldn’t count on it, but I wouldn’t sleep on that possibility either.

  • Like 3

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno, these rapidly deepening and well phased systems can have some serious wrap around sometimes. I wouldn’t count on it, but I wouldn’t sleep on that possibility either.

I'd absolute love to see it, i just can't recall it ever happening in Eastern Iowa.  Can you think of one?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd absolute love to see it, i just can't recall it ever happening in Eastern Iowa.  Can you think of one?

There was an instance in Wisconsin a few years back where there was a surprise 8-12” dropped from a deformation band on the backside of a system much like this one. I’ve also seen it happen in western Iowa, but with lesser totals.

  • Like 2

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting kinda tired of the hard cutters. No cold air to press it.

 

Yeah, no kidding! La Nino! When's this going to start acting like the La Nada it's supposed to be? Continuation of last winter's cutter heaven.  :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...