January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

Many of us are waking up to the season's coldest air of the season.  Interestingly, there are no record low's being reported at this time in our Sub.  I'm hearing popping/cracking around the house and on my deck outside.  I haven't heard those noises since last January!    ORD is down to a balmy +2F (WC -16F), cloudy skies are providing natures blanket and keeping temps from really plunging.  This sorta set up reminds me of the PV intrusions in '13-'14 that were very windy and cloudy which mitigated from temps tanking even farther.  In other words, like Skilling says "Dirty Highs" are producing more clouds than clear skies.  Nonetheless, it's a frigid morning out there and takes your breath away when you venture outside!  Brrrr!!

 

 

Overnight runs are dialing in our next storm threat....more than likely, I'm going to start a Storm Thread later today after our 12z runs...our next  cross country slow mover???

 

 

 

 

http://coolwx.com/record/records.daily.usa.large.png

[Tom]

00z Canadian...

 

 

 

 

00z Euro/EPS...

 

 

 

[Tom]

In regards to the storm later this week, I believe the GFS is running to warm and will eventually cool as we get closer.  IMO, the models are under playing the departing arctic HP which will incorporate any residual cold/dense air in place while the storm takes shape.  Not only that, but when you get a low pressure system to deepen and then occlude, it generally has enough strength to produce its own pocket of colder 850's that would support more snow than rain.  I'm monitoring how the models are trending in terms of handling the 2 pieces of energy and the Euro/Ukie/Canadien all are showing what happened in previous cycles, whereby, 2 separate pieces of energy N stream/S stream  try to phase right across the MW/GL's region due to the blocking pattern setting up.  In previous cycles, there wasn't a lot of blocking but now there is an ample amount of blocking to make things interesting.  This pattern should prevail over the next couple weeks and I'm starting to get very confident that the Southern Stream storm track is going to verify.

 

00z GEFS continue to show more wintry solutions for a lot of members in the central/eastern Sub....

 

 

 

 

06z GEFS...

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Thanks fir the update Tom. Looks like another interesting week.

 

Big day in KC, let’s go Chiefs! I’m going to the game, going to be a cold one.

[Clinton]

Tom, I'm very excited about this storm.  The 6z Euro looks like its gonna phase and the EC hammers you.

[Clinton]

6z Euro ensembles don't get the whole thing but they get enough to show some good hits.

[Mi_Matthew]

Sure would be nice if the operational GFS and Canadian met right in the middle. This situation reminds me of many of our spring snows. Slow moving cut-off lows can be big around here but many times any accumulations are rate dependent and diurnally dependent.

 

The 7 inches of snow from yesterday have melted/compacted down to almost half that, hopefully a refresher 1 or 2 inches is on the way with the secondary arctic front today.

[Clinton]

Thanks fir the update Tom. Looks like another interesting week.

 

Big day in KC, let’s go Chiefs! I’m going to the game, going to be a cold one.

Lets get it done today buddy. I'm 41 and have never seen the Chiefs in the Superbowl I think it's time!

[Minny_Weather]

Kept a lot of the snow on the ground, which is good for this freeze the next few days. 13.6°F and falling.

[SE Wisconsin]

NWS in Milwaukee going with a rain/snow mix transitioning to mainly rain for a time for next weekend's system.  Unfortunately, I think this is the right call.  The cold air mass in place now will be stale by that time and without a reinforcing shot, WAA will likely prevail.  At this time of year, you can never underestimate the power of WAA to shove a stale, cold air mass completely aside.  I would love to be wrong about this though.  Another few inches of snow would be very welcome, but I just don't think it's in the cards for SE WI with this next system.  

[jaster220]

Sure would be nice if the operational GFS and Canadian met right in the middle. This situation reminds me of many of our spring snows. Slow moving cut-off lows can be big around here but many times any accumulations are rate dependent and diurnally dependent.

 

The 7 inches of snow from yesterday have melted/compacted down to almost half that, hopefully a refresher 1 or 2 inches is on the way with the secondary arctic front today.

 

It was nice to see snow rip, wasn't it? But with all these systems running north of us, the temps are killing any snow cover efforts. Gonna remember this as the "plow pile winter" lol. Whatever remains depth-wise out there, certainly will be a rock hard slab tho. Not like one sunny day in the 30's is going to wipe it out. Have to look for a silver lining. 

 

@ Tom - I know it was at least as warm/wet over your way. How much snow survived yesterday's warm-up at your place? Did you get the same 3.1" that ORD reported?

[jaster220]

Kept a lot of the snow on the ground, which is good for this freeze the next few days. 13.6°F and falling.

 

  MI_Matt just posted he lost 50% of his, and he's several counties north of Toledo. 

[SE Wisconsin]

Lets get it done today buddy. I'm 41 and have never seen the Chiefs in the Superbowl I think it's time!

It was 50 years ago when the Chiefs were in the Superbowl.  Would love to see a GB vs.KC Superbowl this time around.  That would be epic!

[Minny_Weather]

MI_Matt just posted he lost 50% of his, and he's several counties north of Toledo.

Had 4" when I woke up yesterday (after it began compacting) and the grass is still mostly covered.

[Clinton]

It was 50 years ago when the Chiefs were in the Superbowl.  Would love to see a GB vs.KC Superbowl this time around.  That would be epic!

I would love that, I'm also rooting for the Packers today, gotta pull for all of us in the midwest!

[jaster220]

Had 4" when I woke up yesterday (after it began compacting) and the grass is still mostly covered.

 

'grats on doing better with this than it looked like a few days out. And yeah, that's why I prefer the low-ratio stuff, it holds up better and what did survive is even more dense glacier berg stuff now. 

[jaster220]

I would love that, I'm also rooting for the Packers today, gotta pull for all of us in the midwest!

 

My exact thoughts bud!

[jaster220]

Tom, I'm very excited about this storm.  The 6z Euro looks like its gonna phase and the EC hammers you.

 

Meanwhile, my office is in their usual "nothing to see here" mode..

 

No change to previous thinking. Details on precipitation type

depends on the positioning of the associated surface low, which

still has limited predictability at the time range. Regardless, this

does not look to be an impactful system.

[GDR]

It was 50 years ago when the Chiefs were in the Superbowl. Would love to see a GB vs.KC Superbowl this time around. That would be epic!

chiefs yes packers heck no

[BrianJK]

NWS in Milwaukee going with a rain/snow mix transitioning to mainly rain for a time for next weekend's system. Unfortunately, I think this is the right call. The cold air mass in place now will be stale by that time and without a reinforcing shot, WAA will likely prevail. At this time of year, you can never underestimate the power of WAA to shove a stale, cold air mass completely aside. I would love to be wrong about this though. Another few inches of snow would be very welcome, but I just don't think it's in the cards for SE WI with this next system.

Most probable and realistic outcome at this point.

[james1976]

cloudy with flurries and -1 right now. love winter mornings like this

[Niko]

19F attm under mostly cloudy skies. Wcf at 3F. Snowsqualls later should amt to an inch at most.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[St Paul Storm]

6F with a chill of -8F and snow showers. Perfect day to stay inside and watch football.

 

Meanwhile, looks like some decent snowmelt across a good portion of the sub later this week.

[Mi_Matthew]

It was nice to see snow rip, wasn't it? But with all these systems running north of us, the temps are killing any snow cover efforts. Gonna remember this as the "plow pile winter" lol. Whatever remains depth-wise out there, certainly will be a rock hard slab tho. Not like one sunny day in the 30's is going to wipe it out. Have to look for a silver lining.

 

@ Tom - I know it was at least as warm/wet over your way. How much snow survived yesterday's warm-up at your place? Did you get the same 3.1" that ORD reported?

Yeah, always good to see snow rates over an inch/hour! I see way out in Euro lala land the chance for a clipper. That's the pattern we can't seem to get into. I'd much rather see a clipper or two every couple weeks versus the half foot+ every couple months...oh well, gotta take whatever we can get.

[dubuque473]

-15 chill, headed out to play with the dogs for a few minutes.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian, for the next storm, is pretty much the GFS with snow instead of rain.

[Clinton]

GFS ensembles seem colder than the op.  Here we go!

[westMJim]

Officially at GRR the snow fall for yesterday was 6.3" That is about what I had yesterday. The totals (not including what fell after midnight) for Grand Rapids for January 8.8" for meteorological winter 23.1" for the season 29.9" Here at my house I had 6" of new snow overnight and with the compacting I have 8.5" on the ground at this time. It is now 26° the snow has now stopped and there are some breaks in the clouds.

[Stacsh]

 

Officially at GRR the snow fall for yesterday was 6.3" That is about what I had yesterday. The totals (not including what fell after midnight) for Grand Rapids for January 8.8" for meteorological winter 23.1" for the season 29.9" Here at my house I had 6" of new snow overnight and with the compacting I have 8.5" on the ground at this time. It is now 26° the snow has now stopped and there are some breaks in the clouds.

Pretty much the same on the NE side here. 9” depth average but I don’t get any wind with the woods to my west

[Niko]

GFS ensembles seem colder than the op.  Here we go!

Give me #19 and 20 pls. They are good hits!!!

[Madtown]

Anyone worried about thr warm air showing up for this week and beyond? Looks like starting Thurs we have daytime highs above freezing (34-35) for a week plus?

[Hawkeye]

12z UK has the same initial plume of moisture up through the region, but this run is much farther east with the main low... keeps it east of Iowa.

[Tom]

It was nice to see snow rip, wasn't it? But with all these systems running north of us, the temps are killing any snow cover efforts. Gonna remember this as the "plow pile winter" lol. Whatever remains depth-wise out there, certainly will be a rock hard slab tho. Not like one sunny day in the 30's is going to wipe it out. Have to look for a silver lining.

 

@ Tom - I know it was at least as warm/wet over your way. How much snow survived yesterday's warm-up at your place? Did you get the same 3.1" that ORD reported?

I was surprised how well the snow survived. It must have been the thick layer of ice from the freezing rain that fell overnight. I have about 2.5”-3” of a frozen glacier OTG. It almost looks like you can skate on top of the snow pack and the sunshine causes a beautiful glaze. I’m ready to hopefully stack up more snow later this week!

[Tom]

cloudy with flurries and -1 right now. love winter mornings like this

Right before I pulled up to the gym earlier this morning, there was a brief snow shower that blew through. I experienced one of those moments you described.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Good to see a snow pack in the Midwest...

 

[St Paul Storm]

Stacking some nice fluff today with the returns that keep regenerating over the Cities. Must be 20:1 or higher.

[Clinton]

12z Euro comes together right over my back yard.  Should be a nice hit from KC to Chicago up through the Mitt and points west.

[Clinton]

12z Euro stayed flatter than I thought it would but still good for many.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro stayed flatter than I thought it would but still good for many.

Not a fan of this for our area. Hoping for GFS