January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

While we were all focusing on our back yards, this past weekend's storm was treating the northlands even better. NMI is touting a more respectable snow cover which is good for winter economy and our "Let's Winter" tourism campaign here in the Mitt. 

 

For comparison here's Christmas Day vs today:

 

 

[Niko]

And ofc, the following week, the GFS has to say "hold my beer". Man that's some wicked cold plunging in..

 

gfs_T850_us_fh330-378.gif

Dang buddy, hope this verifies w a GOM low at the same time. Idk, but that would be a heck of a timing, if that were to happen.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Clinton]

ICON has the storm for next week. Rain then snow for Nebraska. Only 170 hours out, what could possibly go wrong?

It's gonna wash all the salt off the roads for me lol.  Hope it can get colder!

[Niko]

Attm, 17F under sunny skies. A few clouds around.

[Niko]

Did not know it was this cold in Miami, FL recently......

 

Also, Forecasters there warns of falling Iguanas.....

 

FL, US, National Weather Service,

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Wind chills are forecast to range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. * WHERE...Across South Florida. * WHEN...Tonight into Wednesday Morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors, make sure you wear a hat and gloves. &&

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids now has had for the first time this winter 3 days in a row of highs in the 20's and lows in the teens. Could this be the coldest 3 to 4 days of the winter of 2019/20? We shall see. At this time it is 19 and cloudy here at my house and there is 6" of snow on the ground here.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings mentions the storm for next week.  Euro, ICON and GFS show it, though with differences on rain/snow which is understandable 6 days out.  It is the type of low that this area does well with if it verifies.  A low coming out of SE Colorado that goes across Central Kansas usually produces some exciting weather around here.  

 

Next week things get more interesting as a west coast trough
makes its way across the mountains bringing the chance for more
widespread precipitation back to the region Tuesday or Wednesday.
Still significant variance in model data and stuck with blended
model forecast for the time being.

[Clinton]

MJO looks to move neutral maybe this will help us in Feb.

[Hawkeye]

MJO looks to move neutral maybe this will help us in Feb.

 

So the MJO swings strongly through the warm phases, then, just as it is headed toward 8, it slams on the breaks and turns back? lol

[Niko]

Looks like (hopefully) after Feb 5th or so, some colder air moves back in. Lets see how that goes. Folks, time is running out. Once Feb finishes, then, March can only do so much up to a point.

[gimmesnow]

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2019-20.gif

 

I thought this was interesting. While this winter has felt below average and disappointing, Southern Wisconsin is actually above average for snowfall. Did not expect to see that. There's around a two month gap of hardly any snow, yet we're still above average.

[Stacsh]

Looks like (hopefully) after Feb 5th or so, some colder air moves back in. Lets see how that goes. Folks, time is running out. Once Feb finishes, then, March can only do so much up to a point.

 

Got a feeling we will get cold for about a 5-8 day stretch in Feb and that's all folks.  Doesn't mean it won't snow some without the cold, but this is the coldest time of year and I have a couple 40 degree days showing up next week to end January.  

 

I've almost forgot what a Clipper is!!!!! I miss the 2-3" at a time snowfalls.  

[Niko]

Got a feeling we will get cold for about a 5-8 day stretch in Feb and that's all folks.  Doesn't mean it won't snow some without the cold, but this is the coldest time of year and I have a couple 40 degree days showing up next week to end January.  

 

I've almost forgot what a Clipper is!!!!! I miss the 2-3" at a time snowfalls.  

Same here. Pathetic Winter. Very bad pattern. I did not have highs being brutal not once this Winter. I'm surprised I have 27.0" of snowfall thus far.

 

I know right....good ole' clippers that gave us a couple of inches followed by frigid airmasses. Where did that go.......

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian and Euro still have the storm for next week, Tuesday/Wed.  Temperatures again look very marginal.  Been a lot of that this winter.

[gimmesnow]

Does it really matter if we're in this warm pattern where we get some snow, then two days later it's in the 40s? Even if there's enough snow to open the snowmobile trails around here, with those conditions you'll get a few days out of the snowfall before they're closed again.

[Andie]

Mid 40’. Slow drizzle rain through till morning. Foggy.

Well, at least we’re getting rain.

[Yerf]

Looks like (hopefully) after Feb 5th or so, some colder air moves back in. Lets see how that goes. Folks, time is running out. Once Feb finishes, then, March can only do so much up to a point.

Cold air showing up

[CentralNebWeather]

From BAM Weather Twitter.  US Blowtorch.  Hope this doesn't come true.

 

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1220094543955218432?s=20

[Madtown]

^sucks

[Stormhunter87]

OAX has dropped the temps for next week's storm and shifted to more snow.

[Niko]

Cold air showing up

83762112_10157799503846760_4529693211551072256_o.png

Hopefully that verifies.

[Niko]

Currently at 28F under mostly cloudy skies. Looks and feels like its going to snow outside.

[Niko]

Miami, FL dipped down to a nippy 39F this morning. Hasn't been that cold since 2010, December. Wow!

[Stacsh]

No offense but anyone thinking GFS longe is accurate is insane. It has failed for 2 months.

[Minny_Weather]

Miami, FL dipped down to a nippy 39F this morning. Hasn't been that cold since 2010, December. Wow!

Wind chills got down to 30 there.

[Beltrami Island]

No offense but anyone thinking GFS longe is accurate is insane. It has failed for 2 months.

I would be fine with a rule against posting any model map, ensemble or otherwise past 240 hours. Even 240 hours may be to far out...

Year after year the models have shown that at best they get a broad pattern correct at day 10.

[Niko]

Wind chills got down to 30 there.

Crazy. My uncle and aunt are freezing down there. Flurries were seen in Palm Springs, FL.

[Niko]

Attm, 26F under cloudy skies. Beautiful snowpack as well.

[IowaWX82]

I would be fine with a rule against posting any model map, ensemble or otherwise past 240 hours. Even 240 hours may be to far out...

Year after year the models have shown that at best they get a broad pattern correct at day 10.

You must be new here

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Beltrami Island]

You must be new here

Not really that new. Sometimes you just gotta say your piece to be able to move on...

[IowaWX82]

Not really that new. Sometimes you just gotta say your piece to be able to move on...

I’m just playing, man. I actually agree with you ... and wonder why no models previous to 240 hours are being posted/talked about. This is a weather forum, right?

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

Euro continues to show another slop fest for middle of next week.

[Clinton]

Euro continues to show another slop fest for middle of next week.

Yes it does and it also has a strong clipper coming down at the end of the run.  Maybe that cold will actually hang around because we should have another storm due in around the 3rd of Feb.

[Stacsh]

Yes it does and it also has a strong clipper coming down at the end of the run.  Maybe that cold will actually hang around because we should have another storm due in around the 3rd of Feb.

 

I would love a clipper to mix up the pattern a bit, establish some colder air and flip back into this stormy pattern.  

[Clinton]

I would love a clipper to mix up the pattern a bit, establish some colder air and flip back into this stormy pattern.  

Me too but that seems to be to much to ask for this year.

[Niko]

Currently at 25F under cloudy skies.

[Grizzcoat]

The GFS has the clipper also. But both EURo and GFS have very little , if any, below normal air behind said clipper.