Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Cloud]

Do you mind posting a pic or pointing me in the direction to take a look? Thanks!

For future reference, this is where you can go to get to the UW-WRF maps.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/gfsinit.html

[luvssnow_spokane]

This entire event is becoming highly disappointing, and the satellite dish debacle and crisis about through me over the edge. I feel sad and need a hug. 

[MossMan]

God I love where I live...Need another inch of snow and a degree colder...just walk up through our property to our friends/neighbors 50 acres that is 150’ higher. (Middle pic) It was very interesting, south wind whipping at my house, snow already mostly off the trees, walk up there and hardly any wind, no melting yet, trees still caked, and you could feel the difference in temp. All in a 5 minute walk from the house to the top of their property.

[Esquimalt]

I agree, I think models are underestimating precip amounts for Sunday. As it stands now, the GFS and NAM have shown a decent amount of snow and have increased the totals a little bit the past few runs (slight step back on the 12z GFS, but not that much). Even the 06z Euro looked better for some places.

 

Seems the WRF is on it's own showing next to nothing.

However the RGEM and HRDPS show the low tracking way north.  

[runninthruda206]

However the RGEM and HRDPS show the low tracking way north.

Obviously a noob here but wouldn’t that Arctic high/blocking push the low more south? Or is that not how it works haha

[TT-SEA]

God I love where I live...Need another inch of snow and a degree colder...just walk up through our property to our friends/neighbors 50 acres that is 150’ higher. (Middle pic) It was very interesting, south wind whipping at my house, snow already mostly off the trees, walk up there and hardly any wind, no melting yet, trees still caked, and you could feel the difference in temp. All in a 5 minute walk from the house to the top of their property.

 

 

You have sun???

[Esquimalt]

Obviously a noob here but wouldn’t that Arctic high/blocking push the low more south? Or is that not how it works haha

Its that they're handling the overall trough differently. The bulk of the moisture on the RGEM/HRDPS/ICON/GEM is to the north east--so would be much less of an event for south VI and the puget sound.  GFS shows a heavy low tracking right through Seattle which is much more favourable for all. 

[TacomaWaWx]

God I love where I live...Need another inch of snow and a degree colder...just walk up through our property to our friends/neighbors 50 acres that is 150’ higher. (Middle pic) It was very interesting, south wind whipping at my house, snow already mostly off the trees, walk up there and hardly any wind, no melting yet, trees still caked, and you could feel the difference in temp. All in a 5 minute walk from the house to the top of their property.

I'd love to live somewhere nearby a big hill/mountain in the future. Orcas island or Bellingham would be the places I choose. Can go from sea level at eastsound or Bellingham and go up over 2000' at both locations during those marginal situations. That is extremely cool and fascinating to be able to be able to go way up in elevation close to home.

[Deweydog]

Starting to look like PDX may struggle to drop to 26 with this. Front loaders (and skid steers) rejoice!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Taking a closer look at the WRF, it shows temps (850, 925, and surface) all being cold enough to support snow around 4PM Sunday. The problem is precip dries up incredibly fast, to the point where by 7PM it's pretty much done.

 

Sometimes these cold fronts with dry Canadian are become unstable on the leading edge and the models will have trouble moddling this. Depending how much moisture is in the atmosphere in front of the arctic front will have a huge effect on how the front gets it's act together.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Taking a closer look at the WRF, it shows temps (850, 925, and surface) all being cold enough to support snow around 4PM Sunday. The problem is precip dries up incredibly fast, to the point where by 7PM it's pretty much done.

 

Sometimes these cold fronts with dry Canadian are become unstable on the leading edge and the models will have trouble moddling this. Depending how much moisture is in the atmosphere in front of the arctic front will have a huge effect on how the front gets it's act together.

God I love where I live...Need another inch of snow and a degree colder...just walk up through our property to our friends/neighbors 50 acres that is 150’ higher. (Middle pic) It was very interesting, south wind whipping at my house, snow already mostly off the trees, walk up there and hardly any wind, no melting yet, trees still caked, and you could feel the difference in temp. All in a 5 minute walk from the house to the top of their property.

I can look up at the mountain at probably just 200 feet higher than I am and see a winter wonderland. Looks like about 4 inches up there. We only got a little here. I drove west about 4 miles closer the the canal and there was a few inches out there. It's switching back to snow here and 34 degrees

[luvssnow_spokane]

Reporting in with light rain and 40 here in the swamp highlands. Excited about what is to come.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sometimes these cold fronts with dry Canadian are become unstable on the leading edge and the models will have trouble moddling this. Depending how much moisture is in the atmosphere in front of the arctic front will have a huge effect on how the front gets it's act together.

This will probably be an event that the models don't have a handle on at all even right before. Probably will just have to wait til Sunday night and actually see it unfold in real time to actually know. Kind of like the December 1990 surprise c-zone that caught the area off guard.

[MossMan]

You have sun???

No that was from my LED flood light bulbs that are awesome!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If I had my choice of places to relocate in western Washington it would be at lake cushman. When I had a place up there I was shocked at the amount of snow that falls there.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sometimes these cold fronts with dry Canadian are become unstable on the leading edge and the models will have trouble moddling this. Depending how much moisture is in the atmosphere in front of the arctic front will have a huge effect on how the front gets it's act together.I can look up at the mountain at probably just 200 feet higher than I am and see a winter wonderland. Looks like about 4 inches up there. We only got a little here. I drove west about 4 miles closer the the canal and there was a few inches out there. It's switching back to snow here and 34 degrees

You live near that gold mountain area in central Kitsap I'm assuming...very interesting spot that is. That would be another place I'd consider living by... especially farther west of it towards seabeck to get those hood canal snowfalls. I've hiked that mountain several times definitely a good place to go in a marginal snow situation.

[TT-SEA]

No that was from my LED flood light bulbs that are awesome!!

 

 

Must be... they can mimic sunlight!  

 

I need to get about 10 of those.   

[El_Nina]

If I had my choice of places to relocate in western Washington it would be at lake cushman. When I had a place up there I was shocked at the amount of snow that falls there.

My favorite part of WA is Tokeland.

[TT-SEA]

The lowest possible total through D16 on the 12z GEFS members for Bellingham is 8 inches. The average crosses 10 inches by Friday.

 

I'd be feeling pretty good if I was living up there.

 

Has to be mostly on Sunday.

[GHweatherChris]

The lowest possible total through D16 on the 12z GEFS members for Bellingham is 8 inches. The average crosses 10 inches by Friday.

 

I'd be feeling pretty good if I was living up there.

 

Is there one for Hoquiam?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You live near that gold mountain area in central Kitsap I'm assuming...very interesting spot that is. That would be another place I'd consider living by... especially farther west of it towards seabeck to get those hood canal snowfalls. I've hiked that mountain several times definitely a good place to go in a marginal snow situation.

Yeah I live on the outer edge of the hood canal snow zone. I'm very sheltered from the sw winds so there are many times even Bremerton and Shelton are rain and 36 degrees and I have a few inches of snow. Pretty crazy area over here for microclimates.

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Snizzle and 33 here. Getting messy.

[GHweatherChris]

My favorite part of WA is Tokeland.

Da fuq?

[MossMan]

If I had my choice of places to relocate in western Washington it would be at lake cushman. When I had a place up there I was shocked at the amount of snow that falls there.

We almost put in an offer on a place east of Big Lake back when we were looking that had 22 acres of property that went way up in elevation...I was drooling about the prospect of how much snow we could get...But it would have been a 20min drive for my wife just to get to I-5 and then another 30min drive (with no traffic) to her job in Everett so she wanted to keep looking. I was bummed. But our place now feels Ike we are way out yet only 5min from I-5!

[MossMan]

Must be... they can mimic sunlight!

 

I need to get about 10 of those.

They are very easy on the eyes and give off a very nice light, really lights up the yard and snow at night.

[jakerepp]

Rapidly approaching 10000 posts here and it's only the 10th!

[GHweatherChris]

Thanks dude!

[TT-SEA]

Rapidly approaching 10000 posts here and it's only the 10th!

 

 

And so far... its pretty much Randy, Andrew, and myself with a little slushy snow.   The usual suspects.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty good chance at some point most of us will see snow. I like my odds...don't really care if it's 1" or 6". Just want some snow and cold. I like my chances at getting atleast some snow on the ground and having it stick around for a few days.

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z ECMWF does not show any snow for even Bellingham yet through 4 p.m. on Sunday.   

[TacomaWaWx]

And so far... its pretty much Randy, Andrew, and myself with a little slushy snow. The usual suspects.

Was unusual for me to see a 1/2" of snow while lots of others didn't yesterday. Especially since my house is one of the last places to usually see snow in a marginal situation.

[TT-SEA]

Snow finally shows up between 4-7 p.m. on Sunday.    And the c-zone behind the low is forming at that time.

 

[jakerepp]

And so far... its pretty much Randy, Andrew, and myself with a little slushy snow.   The usual suspects.   

Gotta get caught up on names...Randy is MossMan? 

[MossMan]

New 12Z ECMWF does not show any snow for even Bellingham yet through 4 p.m. on Sunday.

That’s not good.

[Bryant]

The lowest possible total through D16 on the 12z GEFS members for Bellingham is 8 inches. The average crosses 10 inches by Friday.

 

I'd be feeling pretty good if I was living up there.

 

I'm threading the needle with my location at the Whatcom/Skagit line.

[TT-SEA]

C-zone looks a little farther north between 7-10 p.m. on the ECMWF compared to the 00Z run.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And so far... its pretty much Randy, Andrew, and myself with a little slushy snow.   The usual suspects.   

I'm invisible

[bainbridgekid]

EURO is way stronger with the CZ Sunday evening than the WRF.

 

Good news.