2020 - 2021 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Models showing another ULL over southern California next week. MML may need some xanax.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The rain stopped earlier this morning here in Orange, but it appears we may get some shower activity this afternoon before the storm begins to wind down later this evening.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Models showing another ULL over southern California next week. MML may need some xanax.

Not supposed to have as much rain, yet.

[Reg]

Still raining here this afternoon, approaching 1" since midnight alone.

 

The entire Inland Empire has now exceeded their entire season averages for the year, something we all thought was very unlikely to happen just over a month ago. This now being our second consecutive above-average rainy season, is something that hasn't happened since 2009-2010 + 2010-2011.

[Reg]

The eye of the low is over Orange County and just passing over the Santa Ana Mountains now, but it's still pouring here in Murrieta. I'm starting to see breaks in the clouds far to my west, though.

 

Only 0.22" more is needed for my to surpass last year's total for me.

[Reg]

I see patches of blue sky over the Santa Ana Mountains, but it's still raining here. Now we have street flooding, I almost couldn't get home from the store just now because one of the streets to my house was partially submerged.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cloudy but no rain here right now and no rain since this morning. The low should finally move out tonight if it behaves itself, but remember a cutoff low is a weatherman's woe.

[Reg]

Cutoff low looks like it just moved back towards the coast again. Cloudy and still raining (lightly) here, I'm at 1.15" for today.

[Dan the Weatherman]

All the rain late morning and this afternoon has been well to the south and east of me here in Orange. It hasn't rained a drop here since earlier this morning. EDIT: I looked out my window and realized that it has rained a little bit during the last 15 minutes or so, but not enough to entirely wet the driveway, though.

 

I do see some shower activity approaching my area on the latest radar imagery, so I may see a few showers before this storm departs.

[Jesse]

All the rain late morning and this afternoon has been well to the south and east of me here in Orange. It hasn't rained a drop here since earlier this morning. EDIT: I looked out my window and realized that it has rained a little bit during the last 15 minutes or so, but not enough to entirely wet the driveway, though.

 

I do see some shower activity approaching my area on the latest radar imagery, so I may see a few showers before this storm departs.

 

Hope you are able to score some more rainfall.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just got another very light shower, although the clouds seem to be breaking up for the most part. Still lots of flooding in my backyard.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Raining again. This is the hardest it's rained since sunrise this morning.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Hope you are able to score some more rainfall.

Unfortunately it didn't rain anymore here at my place today, but the long duration of the rainfall here in Orange over the past several days have been nothing short of impressive for April. I will post a storm total sometime tomorrow.

[Reg]

My six-day total in Murrieta is 4.14".

 

Only .09" away from my 2018-2019 season total.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Our infamous cutoff low is spinning over Arizona this morning. The moon was out last night.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Storm total for Lake Forest was 3.97" at the Foothill Ranch station.

[Anti Marine Layer]

So how long do you think our hills stay green after all of this rain? Will they be brown by June?

[Reg]

So how long do you think our hills stay green after all of this rain? Will they be brown by June?

 

Most likely they will be brown by June, I can't think of any year they were still green by that point, not even 2004-2005. I remember we had an unusually strong, cold storm in late May of 2008, and that didn't phase them either.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It is raining in Phoenix.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Most likely they will be brown by June, I can't think of any year they were still green by that point, not even 2004-2005. I remember we had an unusually strong, cold storm in late May of 2008, and that didn't phase them either.

 

There were several spells of very warm to almost downright hot weather in both April and May of 2008 in coastal and inland coastal Socal due to the abnormally early end of the rainy season that year, which likely helped to dry out the hills. There was one last storm that brought some shower activity, which I believe is the same one you are referring to.

 

Even during the wettest of winters, the last rains of the season are usually sometime in April or May, and rain in June is very rare. With the rising sun angle and warmer and dry weather, the hills usually do begin to turn brown during June as the winter season annual grasses die off, even if the marine layer may be more dominant than usual.

[Dan the Weatherman]

For this past week's storm, I picked up a total of 2.80" here in Orange, making this the wettest April in quite a long time for this area. Even though April isn't usually nearly as wet of a month as January and February, it has been abnormally dry in recent years since around 2008 or so with the exception of 2010 and 2012, so we were overdue for a wet April.

[Reg]

There were several spells of very warm to almost downright hot weather in both April and May of 2008 in coastal and inland coastal Socal due to the abnormally early end of the rainy season that year, which likely helped to dry out the hills. There was one last storm that brought some shower activity, which I believe is the same one you are referring to.

 

Even during the wettest of winters, the last rains of the season are usually sometime in April or May, and rain in June is very rare. With the rising sun angle and warmer and dry weather, the hills usually do begin to turn brown during June as the winter season annual grasses die off, even if the marine layer may be more dominant than usual.

 

2008 was bizarre for temperatures here. Spring was mostly dry and littered with unusually high-amplitude heat waves every couple of weeks or so like you said, although that late May storm was much wetter in my area than LA (produced an inch of rain in Temecula and hail at my house, also two weak tornadoes near March AFB). Summer was uneventful, but then Fall was dominated by constant episodes of offshore flow all the way into early December.

 

http://www.climatestations.com/images/stories/los-angeles/LACV2008.GIF

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nothing like some early May Gray for Easter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Orographic event is helping with this ma-rain layer event. Not just the typical morning drizzle. Most likely the John Wayne Airport will not get anything measurable.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Low clouds are starting to leak into the Coachella Valley. Talk about a deep marine layer.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Good thing about today's trough is it finally kicked that cutoff low to the east.

[Anti Marine Layer]

0.01" so far in Lake Forest.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phoenix could have their latest day to reach 90 this year since 1999.

 

Global warming?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Here's where we stand as of today. Basically below normal ever since the pandemic was declared.

 

 

 

 

[Reg]

Some sprinkles here but no real rain tonight. I'm curious Mr Marine Layer, where did you obtain those graphs for Fullerton?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Winter started at Spring Forward this year. This may be helping to flatten the curve by keeping less people outside. Looks like we could get a few warm days after today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Some sprinkles here but no real rain tonight. I'm curious Mr Marine Layer, where did you obtain those graphs for Fullerton?

I made my own program to generate the graphs.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like yesterday's steroid-enhanced 4000 thick cloud deck has thinned out.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It thickened back up. Darker at midday than at sunrise.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hard to imagine all this stuff being pushed offshore tomorrow.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Reverse clearing has begun. It started around sunset. Just imagine a day without rain in Southern California.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Here in Orange, we seem to be getting into our May Gray / June Gloom pattern as of now, only that the temperatures are a few degrees cooler than they would be during this pattern going into May.

 

However, a brief Santa Ana is forecast sometime tomorrow afternoon and evening, with highs forecast to be 75-80, so the winter pattern is not quite done yet. It looks as if we have at least two more chances for at least some light rain, one around Friday-Saturday, and possibly another about the middle of next week.

 

I wonder if we are going to have any additional showers in May this year like we have had in recent years? May has actually been wetter for the last several years than it used to be.

[Dan the Weatherman]

0.02" fell here in Orange with the light rain / drizzle that fell yesterday.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Low clouds are still here this morning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

What's that bright thing up in the sky?