April 2nd-4th Storm system (both waves)

[Geos]

Yeah, the NAM is excessive as usual.

 

Really loads on the rain in the local region.

 

 

Would push a lot of river into flood stage.

[tim the weatherman]

Yeah, the NAM is excessive as usual.

 

Really loads on the rain in the local region.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/04/01/18/NAM_221_2014040118_F84_PCPIN_84_HR.png

 

Would push a lot of river into flood stage.

of course geos that many rivers and creeks will be out of their banks.

[Money]

NAM bufkit for Oshkosh

 

140403/2200Z 52 08017KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.14|| 0.16 0| 0|100
140403/2300Z 53 09016KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.14|| 0.18 0| 0|100
140404/0000Z 54 09015KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.16|| 0.19 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0100Z 55 08014KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.16|| 0.20 0| 0|100
140404/0200Z 56 09013KT 31.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.17|| 0.20 0| 0|100
140404/0300Z 57 09013KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.17|| 0.21 0| 0|100
140404/0400Z 58 08013KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.18|| 0.22 0| 0|100
140404/0500Z 59 08013KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.18|| 0.23 0| 0|100
140404/0600Z 60 07013KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.19|| 0.23 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0700Z 61 07013KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.20|| 0.24 0| 0|100
140404/0800Z 62 06015KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.21|| 0.25 0| 0|100
140404/0900Z 63 06016KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.079 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.29|| 0.33 0| 0|100
140404/1000Z 64 06016KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.179 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.48|| 0.51 0| 0|100
140404/1100Z 65 05018KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.138 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.62|| 0.64 0| 0|100
140404/1200Z 66 05018KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.125 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.75|| 0.77 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1300Z 67 05020KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.079 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.83|| 0.85 0| 0|100
140404/1400Z 68 05019KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.036 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.87|| 0.88 0| 0|100
140404/1500Z 69 05016KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.122 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.00|| 1.01 0| 0|100
140404/1600Z 70 04016KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.023 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.03|| 1.03 0| 0|100
140404/1700Z 71 04015KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.03|| 1.04 0| 0|100
140404/1800Z 72 03015KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.04|| 1.04 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1900Z 73 02016KT 31.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.05|| 1.05 0| 0|100
140404/2000Z 74 02017KT 31.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.07|| 1.07 0| 0|100
140404/2100Z 75 36018KT 30.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.023 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.09|| 1.10 0| 0|100
140404/2200Z 76 35018KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.024 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.12 0| 0|100
140404/2300Z 77 34019KT 28.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.14 100| 0| 0
140405/0000Z 78 33019KT 27.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 8:1| 0.5|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.17 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140405/0100Z 79 33020KT 26.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 8:1| 0.7|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.18 100| 0| 0
140405/0200Z 80 33021KT 26.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 0.9|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.20 100| 0| 0
140405/0300Z 81 33021KT 25.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 1.0|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.21 100| 0| 0
140405/0400Z 82 32021KT 24.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 9:1| 1.1|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.21 100| 0| 0
140405/0500Z 83 32020KT 23.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 10:1| 1.1|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.22 100| 0| 0
140405/0600Z 84 32019KT 23.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 1.2|| 0.01|| 1.12|| 1.22 100| 0| 0

 

 

1.22 QPF

 

1.12 FZR  

 

Green Bay:

 

140403/2100Z 51 07017KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.05|| 0.13 0| 0|100
140403/2200Z 52 07017KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.005 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.06|| 0.13 0| 0|100
140403/2300Z 53 08017KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.14 0| 0|100
140404/0000Z 54 08016KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.11|| 0.18 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0100Z 55 08015KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.15|| 0.22 0| 0|100
140404/0200Z 56 07014KT 31.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.023 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.17|| 0.24 0| 0|100
140404/0300Z 57 07013KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.19|| 0.26 0| 0|100
140404/0400Z 58 07013KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.21|| 0.28 0| 0|100
140404/0500Z 59 06015KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.23|| 0.29 0| 0|100
140404/0600Z 60 06015KT 29.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.24|| 0.31 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0700Z 61 06015KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.26|| 0.32 0| 0|100
140404/0800Z 62 06016KT 29.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.013 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.27|| 0.33 0| 0|100
140404/0900Z 63 06018KT 29.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.28|| 0.35 0| 0|100
140404/1000Z 64 06019KT 29.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.078 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.37|| 0.43 0| 0|100
140404/1100Z 65 05020KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.222 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.60|| 0.65 0| 0|100
140404/1200Z 66 05021KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.178 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.79|| 0.83 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1300Z 67 05023KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.161 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.95|| 0.99 0| 0|100
140404/1400Z 68 05024KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.047 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.00|| 1.03 0| 0|100
140404/1500Z 69 05023KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.05|| 1.08 0| 0|100
140404/1600Z 70 04022KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.197 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.26|| 1.28 0| 0|100
140404/1700Z 71 04022KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.037 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.30|| 1.32 0| 0|100
140404/1800Z 72 03021KT 30.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.32|| 1.33 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1900Z 73 03021KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.33|| 1.34 0| 0|100
140404/2000Z 74 02021KT 30.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.34|| 1.36 0| 0|100
140404/2100Z 75 02021KT 29.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.36|| 1.38 0| 0|100
140404/2200Z 76 01020KT 28.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019 3:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.39 0| 0|100
140404/2300Z 77 36020KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 4:1| 0.4|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.41 100| 0| 0
140405/0000Z 78 35019KT 27.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 5:1| 0.6|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.44 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140405/0100Z 79 34020KT 26.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 5:1| 0.7|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.45 100| 0| 0
140405/0200Z 80 34021KT 25.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 6:1| 0.9|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.47 100| 0| 0
140405/0300Z 81 33022KT 24.3F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 6:1| 1.0|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.48 100| 0| 0
140405/0400Z 82 33021KT 23.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 6:1| 1.1|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.49 100| 0| 0
140405/0500Z 83 33020KT 23.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 1.2|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.49 100| 0| 0
140405/0600Z 84 33019KT 22.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 7:1| 1.3|| 0.05|| 1.38|| 1.50 100| 0| 0

 

1.50 QPF

1.38 FZR

0.05 IP

1.3 SN

[Money]

The four things going for a big ice storm in C/NE and maybe East-Central Wisconsin

 

1. Most of the precip happens during the overnight-early morning hours before switching over to snow on Friday.

2. Evaporated cooling could occur with dew points hovering around 30 

3. Lake Michigan is still iced over in some spots which will cut down on the warmer temps near LM

4. The strong high to the north

 

This is going to be a very, very tough forecast especially for the northern parts of the MKE forecast areas and the southern-eastern parts of the GB forecast area where one degree could mean the difference between a potentially big ice storm or just a cold rain. 

 

NAM has temps in the 30-32 range while 12z GFS is about 32-33 here. 

 

The track is still to be determined and the system isn't even onshore yet. I'll give a full detailed forecast for areas after the 0z runs tomorrow night. 

[Geos]

Point three is a little weak, Lake Michigan is starting to warm up now, except for the very northern part and Green Bay.

 

 

Point 4 - not really. 1030mb is run of the mill.

 

LSE and GoSaints almost out of the snow on the latest GFS.

 

[Money]

OUR BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE POTENTIAL OF AN ICE STORM FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IS THE
MOST CHALLENGING. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD CAUSE FREEZING RAIN...RAIN OR SLEET.
THE BIG ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AND
DRY AIR TO PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND PREVENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING. LAKE MICHIGAN STILL HAS SOME ICE SO IT
WILL NOT CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE. SO WE ARE THINKING THERE
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE BUT IT
ALL DEPENDS ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

[tim the weatherman]

was looking around and according to storm central that we have a 2 day severe weather event with thursday being the worst with tornadoes(a few ones being strong heading into friday as well)(also hail big as softballs and damaging winds up to 70miles per hourand also the spc is considering to up grade to moderate risk on thursday).

[james1976]

18z NAM with an insane defo band over me. no way it happens.

[gosaints]

Geos is willing this storm west

[Geos]

Geos is willing this storm west

 

Haha - Intense WAA FTW!

 

0z NAM is pretty far along... will see what that does.

[Money]

Yes he is, and it gets annoying.

[gosaints]

I am definetly leaning left as well

[gosaints]

Nam is gonna be left

[Money]

NW trend is the way to go right now. Big FZR event from LSE to GB and Fox Valley. Cold rain here (33 or so) 

[james1976]

tad west. weaker qpf. no surprise.

[Geos]

Haha, 30" for Ashland, WI!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

 

What amount are you in GoSaints? Really sharp cut off in SE MN.

[james1976]

yup......finally getting in line with other models.

[th_snow]

Haha, 30" for Ashland, WI!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

 

What amount are you in GoSaints? Really sharp cut off in SE MN.

Quite the NAM run there. Most likely overdone though.

[Money]

It's been awful most of winter but euro ftw 

[Money]

yeah writing is on the wall for this thing.

 

GFS takes the L to DBQ pretty much. Minnesota gets crushed. 

[Geos]

13" or so for MSP at hour 69. GFS

[East Dubzz]

I don't want another SLP to track through my area, I hate dry slots!!'

[gosaints]

System pretty close to shore. If we are gonna see anything major as far as changes should be today.

[Geos]

6z NAM was still at it with the high amounts.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

 

Still over an inch of rain for the area.

 

[gosaints]

Sref plumes ticking up here but I have my doubts

[Geos]

Sref plumes ticking up here but I have my doubts

 

Looks like the GFS mainly misses you - barely.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075

[gosaints]

Ya GFS dry slot barely.  NAM is gonna be super juiced again.  If it were january i would toss the amount of moisture it produces, but this time of the year possible.  

[gosaints]

NAM is borderline nasty ice

[Geos]

NAM is borderline nasty ice

 

Day 2 and 3 from the HPC

 

 

 

Surface low predictions.

 

 

Early in the morning/late evening is when I'd be the most concerned about ice accumulations causing issues.

[gabel23]

Day 2 and 3 from the HPC

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif

 

Surface low predictions.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

Early in the morning/late evening is when I'd be the most concerned about ice accumulations causing issues.

 

 

Classic snowstorm track for us in Neb. if only it was in the middle of winter. I'm just hoping we get a nice long soaking around these parts, any shift to the NW and I'm in the dry slot so hope to avoid that. 

[Geos]

Classic snowstorm track for us in Neb. if only it was in the middle of winter. I'm just hoping we get a nice long soaking around these parts, any shift to the NW and I'm in the dry slot so hope to avoid that. 

 

Hey at least the NAM is giving you guys something over there!

 

[gosaints]

NAM still pretty nice on the backside after alot of rain and temps between 30 and 34

[james1976]

12z NAM looks more realistic. I see winter storm watches are only a couple counties to my north. Looks like another barely miss for me.

[Geos]

Haha - realistic!? Not for NW WI I don't think. 

 

[gosaints]

Wanna talk about an amazing winter. NW wiscosin has been ground zero.  NAM really is agressive with precip tonight compared to other models.  So it Hi res NAM.  Think its onto something GEOS?

[Geos]

Wanna talk about an amazing winter. NW wiscosin has been ground zero.  NAM really is agressive with precip tonight compared to other models.  So it Hi res NAM.  Think its onto something GEOS?

 

Could be. But I think due to the higher sun angle and compaction issues, the amounts won't be over 20"... let alone 30"!

 

Very juiced up storm though, should really put down a lot of rain as well.

 

[gosaints]

RGEM every looks about like the NAM

[Geos]

Wow, intense convection.

 

[gosaints]

GFS basically all rain here

[tim the weatherman]

Day 2 and 3 from the HPC

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif

 

Surface low predictions.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

Early in the morning/late evening is when I'd be the most concerned about ice accumulations causing issues.

the good news that this is not a moster ice storm like money said so that means this is going to be mainly a severe weather and possibility a blizzard and a rain event(less than quarter of an inch about3-8)(mainly 4 to 8 incher of snow).