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2020 Weather Mid Atlantic/Gulf Coast.

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#1
Phil

Posted 06 January 2020 - 07:02 PM

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Let’s get the new year started off right.

Winter weather advisory issued for 1-3” of slush tomorrow. Looks like a quick thump during peak heating in a marginal airmass, but at this time of year I’m betting on rates wherever they do occur. Will be happy with 1” at the rate things have been going of late.

Burst of 45-50mph W/NW winds on Thursday could also produce some blowing snow conditions in the AM hours.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#2
Phil

Posted 07 January 2020 - 04:10 PM

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Got ~ 1” of chowder today. Wasted a lot of precip on cold rain early on but we were ripping real good after 230pm.

Awaiting the wall of 45mph NW winds that will drop temps into the teens over the next 24-36 hours.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3
Phil

Posted 08 January 2020 - 06:50 AM

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Wind advisory for gusts to 50mph today.

Gonna get loud in a few hours. Sun is out and Dolly Sods is already hitting 58mph.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#4
weatherfan2012

Posted 08 January 2020 - 06:51 AM

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Wind advisory for gusts to 50mph today.
Gonna get loud in a few hours. Sun is out and Dolly Sods is already hitting 58mph.

apparently there are reports of snow thunder squalls this morning.

#5
Phil

Posted 08 January 2020 - 08:47 AM

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About to mix out here, I think. Roaring out west.

Wintergreen just reported a 66mph gust. Still rough out in Dolly Sods as well, with a gust to 61mph at ~ 1030AM.

ph9ajwD.jpg
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#6
Phil

Posted 08 January 2020 - 08:28 PM

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Snow cover and the lack of a sharp pressure surge probably kept gusts down today. Around 35mph for the most part..just a typical winter day, really.

Could drop into the teens tonight before the blowtorch pattern commences tomorrow night.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#7
weatherfan2012

Posted 09 January 2020 - 06:50 AM

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Snow cover and the lack of a sharp pressure surge probably kept gusts down today. Around 35mph for the most part..just a typical winter day, really.
Could drop into the teens tonight before the blowtorch pattern commences tomorrow night.

looks like another winter where the cold comes the second half February and March seems to be the trend the last few years.March has been colder and snower then December.a few years ago it even snowed in April :lol:

#8
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 11 January 2020 - 01:21 PM

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2.5 inches with the last storm in Baltimore. Getting Ready for the Titans...


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#9
Phil

Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:46 AM

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That blowtorch the other night was something else. Easily warmed into the low 70’s. Hovered in the mid/upper 60s most of the night with a roaring south wind (LLJ topped 70kts) then a summer-like squall blew through with sideways rain. Absurd. Still mild now but at least it’s 48*F rain instead of 68*F rain. Good lord.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#10
Phil

Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:47 AM

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That said, we finally a decent pattern upcoming from January 20th and onwards if you want more than an inch or two of chowder at a time.

The cyclone next weekend brings in the pattern change, though the cold advection behind the Thursday front might allow for a brief wintry start here this weekend before we transition to rain under the intense WAA/isentropic lift.

Thereafter, the long wave pattern improves markedly. Just need to get a storm in here at the right time.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#11
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 January 2020 - 02:18 AM

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2.5 inches with the last storm in Baltimore. Getting Ready for the Titans...

that was certainly a Bust of a game they completey went away from what brought them the success all year really head scratching to say the least but still an exciting season.weather was very warm felt like spring lol.
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#12
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 15 January 2020 - 10:17 AM

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Believe it or not the trees are starting to bloom here.  I think the Saturday event is still suspect. Every run has placed surface low further NW. The Canadian high stronger still.

 

CADs can result in a lot of nowcasting..... 


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#13
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 15 January 2020 - 10:29 AM

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Two things I have never seen. A winter that started cold and stayed cold. A winter that started warm and stayed warm. Good times are coming. 

 

 

 

Attached Files


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#14
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:02 PM

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Two things I have never seen. A winter that started cold and stayed cold. A winter that started warm and stayed warm. Good times are coming.

I seen it happen with crap winters 97-98 started warm and remained warm and wet the super strong East basin El nino 2001-2002 was crappy from start to end 2011-2012 another crappy winter pretty much from start to end.2013-2014 2002-2003 may have been the closet winters where it was cold from start to end with very few exceptions.

#15
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:16 PM

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I seen it happen with crap winters 97-98 started warm and remained warm and wet the super strong East basin El nino 2001-2002 was crappy from start to end 2011-2012 another crappy winter pretty much from start to end.2013-2014 2002-2003 may have been the closet winters where it was cold from start to end with very few exceptions.

 

Thank you for removing all hope. In that sense I must give some hopium. 12z tropical tidbits NAM snowfall forcast.

 

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_29.png   150.02KB   0 downloads


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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#16
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:32 PM

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Euro trending south...


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#17
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 15 January 2020 - 01:58 PM

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https://youtu.be/jQHLD5Vvpzo


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#18
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 15 January 2020 - 01:59 PM

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https://youtu.be/jQHLD5Vvpzo


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#19
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 January 2020 - 02:30 PM

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Thank you for removing all hope. In that sense I must give some hopium. 12z tropical tidbits NAM snowfall forcast.

attachicon.gifnamconus_asnow_neus_29.png

but on the flip side I seen many cases where we saw warm first hafe of winters then cold very cold seacond half so there is in fact still hope 😉

#20
Phil

Posted 16 January 2020 - 11:29 AM

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Looks like Dulles gusted to 51mph with the CAA today.

So far adiabatic compression/downsloping is offsetting it, though. Hovering around 50*F with a persistent 35-40mph W/NW wind.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#21
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 03:31 AM

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Looks like Saturday will be a North and West of I-95 event. Most models go snow to sleet then freezing rain till 0Z Sunday. This trend is colder last few runs. If you like sleet, this storm is for you. This will not be a weak CAD.

GFS is blinking Sleet/Snow. 06Z run, more snow. 06Z NAM, sleet storm...

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_8.png   140.36KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#22
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 03:46 AM

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Joe Cioffi, gets ripped again. Maybe not. A great guy nevertheless....

I recommend his YouTube channel.

https://youtu.be/rT1rtgP97Xo

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#23
Andie

Posted 17 January 2020 - 04:29 AM

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So far adiabatic compression/downsloping is offsetting it, though.

I love it when you talk tech!

How's it going?


PS - Finished the series... 3 books - 400,000 words. But info keeps flowing in. What d'ya goona do?.
May have a 4th, but taking a break and working on a separate novel. Is this crazy or what?.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#24
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 04:39 AM

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Had a dusting of snow overnight in the hills west of Baltimore. Didn't know it till sunrise revieled it. Patches of snow on the ground and rooftops.

Phil was monitoring last night's wind gust. It was a wind storm indeed. He should monitor the developing CAD. He is on the border of a Winter Storm....
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#25
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 07:06 AM

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12z NAM cut it in half..

,
Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_13.png   142.75KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#26
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 07:10 AM

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Looks like a rainy night in Georgia..,

https://youtu.be/cAA_LUCb0QE

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#27
Phil

Posted 17 January 2020 - 08:09 AM

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Had a dusting of snow overnight in the hills west of Baltimore. Didn't know it till sunrise revieled it. Patches of snow on the ground and rooftops.

Phil was monitoring last night's wind gust. It was a wind storm indeed. He should monitor the developing CAD. He is on the border of a Winter Storm....


Roared all night here. Would get waves of wind each time a snow squall died east of the BR and the remnant clouds would move overhead. Residual evaporative cooling/circulation, I guess.

As for the CAD..it’s debatable given the 70kt southerly LLJ at 850mb. I suppose this event might depend on the intensity of that first wave of morning precip. It should be mostly snow, and if it’s intense enough, it could dynamically cool/saturate the boundary layer early enough (and increase albedo enough) to establish the wedge before LLJ/insolation can mix it out.

If it’s a broken up mess, then I’m bearish. This feels like an AM thump for the folks near/north of the Mason-Dixon with scattered snow showers to the south, followed by a quick ice to rain transition with the second wave even as highs end up colder than the NWS forecast (mid/upper 30s), but I’ve been wrong with CAD before. It tends to be stubborn.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#28
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 08:35 AM

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Roared all night here. Would get waves of wind each time a snow squall died east of the BR and the remnant clouds would move overhead. Residual evaporative cooling/circulation, I guess.
As for the CAD..it’s debatable given the 70kt southerly LLJ at 850mb. I suppose this event might depend on the intensity of that first wave of morning precip. It should be mostly snow, and if it’s intense enough, it could dynamically cool/saturate the boundary layer early enough (and increase albedo enough) to establish the wedge before LLJ/insolation can mix it out.
If it’s a broken up mess, then I’m bearish. This feels like an AM thump for the folks near/north of the Mason-Dixon with scattered snow showers to the south, followed by a quick ice to rain transition with the second wave even as highs end up colder than the NWS forecast (mid/upper 30s), but I’ve been wrong with CAD before. It tends to be stubborn.


We get to the part where Goldie locks meets the bears...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#29
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 09:17 AM

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https://youtu.be/cAA_LUCb0QE

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#30
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 10:01 AM

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https://youtu.be/h1g36CXfQ00

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#31
weatherfan2012

Posted 17 January 2020 - 11:29 AM

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Thank you for removing all hope. In that sense I must give some hopium. 12z tropical tidbits NAM snowfall forcast.

attachicon.gifnamconus_asnow_neus_29.png

no one removes all hope like the clowns on Americanwx forum they are all winter cancel right now :lol: even with an impending winter threat. I agree with you those I think there is still hope things can turn around for a bit.this was always a challenging winter to pin down in my mind alot of mix indications this year.

#32
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 January 2020 - 12:37 PM

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Forecast. 1-2 inches of snow. A period of sleet. Then freezing rain. Maybe a rain shower with frontal passage..

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#33
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 January 2020 - 02:01 AM

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Best squall I've seen in years..

Attached File  20200118_095317_BREF1_gray.png   362.22KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#34
Phil

Posted 18 January 2020 - 01:58 PM

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Got 1/2” of snow with the morning squall, then sleet/freezing rain from midday onwards. Glaze on the trees with scattered patches of snow remaining.

Seasonal total up to 2.6”. Pathetic winter so far.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#35
weatherfan2012

Posted 18 January 2020 - 06:10 PM

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Got 1/2” of snow with the morning squall, then sleet/freezing rain from midday onwards. Glaze on the trees with scattered patches of snow remaining.
Seasonal total up to 2.6”. Pathetic winter so far.

no question this winter is up there so far with the sucks as donkey balls winters of 2001-2002 2011-2012 kind of suck.I don't think anyone thought this winter would be this lame so far.even the true pro mets are scratching there heads I have notice.of course the typical man made climate change blame always gos berzark doing these kind of winters.I think it just a cycle.I think we tend to forget this low solar cycle phase is following what was one of the strongest solar maximum cycles in recorded history so how that would play out with this low cycle was always a unknown and I suspect more surpises awaits with this cycle.It is certainly possable that the heat from the oceans that was built up from the strong solar maximum cycles in the 80s and 90s are now being released from the low cycle.It will be interesting to see if we have a more pronounced cooling once the ocean heat release completes.
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#36
weatherfan2012

Posted 19 January 2020 - 05:09 AM

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Americanwx forum can say what they want about Larry Cosgrove but the Truth is he has been more right then wrong this winter.as he was strongly against the cold and snowy winter forecasts being put out by the likes of Judah Cohan and Dave Tolleris and Joe Bastardi I got to so far anyway give the man his dues for seeing this pattern clear back in september or October really.Dave Tolleris and Judah Cohen has been way off the past few winters.

#37
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 January 2020 - 08:43 AM

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Just getting over depression. Got about 20 minutes of light snow. Visibility dropped to one mile. To call it a dusting would be a stretch. Had a 30 minute break then heavy sleet for about 10 minutes, then freezing rain. About a tenth of an inch of ice accretion. At about 10 pm the warm air came in. When ice starts to melt it really glistens. It was washed away overnight.

My forecast was a bust.
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#38
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 January 2020 - 08:53 AM

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Skies are black North and West of Baltimore. Snow showers of unknown intensity clearly visible.

Attached File  20200119_164311_BREF1_gray.png   396.6KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#39
weatherfan2012

Posted 19 January 2020 - 09:00 AM

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Just getting over depression. Got about 20 minutes of light snow. Visibility dropped to one mile. To call it a dusting would be a stretch. Had a 30 minute break then heavy sleet for about 10 minutes, then freezing rain. About a tenth of an inch of ice accretion. At about 10 pm the warm air came in. When ice starts to melt it really glistens. It was washed away overnight.
My forecast was a bust.

it was a bad storm track really and lack of blocking it should have been easy to see how this would be a meh event.I think we want to keep hope but in this winter it seems hope is hard to come by so far.but we still got February and March and the last few years March has been producing better then December and January combind :lol:
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#40
weatherfan2012

Posted 19 January 2020 - 09:13 AM

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Just getting over depression. Got about 20 minutes of light snow. Visibility dropped to one mile. To call it a dusting would be a stretch. Had a 30 minute break then heavy sleet for about 10 minutes, then freezing rain. About a tenth of an inch of ice accretion. At about 10 pm the warm air came in. When ice starts to melt it really glistens. It was washed away overnight.
My forecast was a bust.

the blame for this warm and lack of snow of course will be put on man made climate change but in truth its factors like a weak but still west qbo in a over all nino like regem a positive iod causing bad mjo phases.hopefully next winter we get a moderate nino because the qbo will be well into the East phase which is a good phase to get blocking negative Nao.
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#41
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 January 2020 - 09:39 AM

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We will have a slight chance 5-7 days out. CMC and Euro keep NW flow. GFS is off the chain warm. Maybe the old man is on to something.

Marginal at best.

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png   180.42KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#42
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 January 2020 - 10:30 AM

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120 hr Euro shows CAD signatures. Marginal at best.

Attached File  prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png   245.49KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#43
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 January 2020 - 11:02 AM

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150 hr Euro, bringing it home. Hope is fliting.,

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#44
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 January 2020 - 11:05 AM

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150 hr Euro, bringing it home. Hope is fleeting.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#45
Phil

Posted 19 January 2020 - 12:46 PM

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The LLJ scoured out enough of the inversion last night to mix down the NW surge right after sunrise... ~ 40mph gusts today. Awaiting the reinforcing shot of CAA due to move in overnight tonight.

Should see teens/low 20s for lows, with wind chills in the single digits to ~ 10*F at times. Finally some more typical midwinter conditions as opposed to that torch crap.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#46
Phil

Posted 19 January 2020 - 12:47 PM

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March and/or April will do something weird this year. Some kind of strong cyclone, severe weather outbreak, or late season snowstorm.

Calling it now.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#47
Phil

Posted 22 January 2020 - 01:07 PM

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Low was 18.3F today. Hilarious that’s the coldest we’ve seen all winter, but alas..

Late winter climax is probably in order. Typical.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#48
weatherfan2012

Posted 22 January 2020 - 01:24 PM

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Low was 18.3F today. Hilarious that’s the coldest we’ve seen all winter, but alas..
Late winter climax is probably in order. Typical.

I would not be surprised if we had are biggest snow storm this winter in March this year :lol:
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#49
weatherfan2012

Posted 22 January 2020 - 05:24 PM

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Febuary looks active and we have gotten some very good storms from none super cold patterns.and with Only an inch of snow so far I feel something is going to happen snow wise at some point.give me an active pattern with regular cold around over a super cold pattern where it's suppressed city.
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#50
weatherfan2012

Posted 23 January 2020 - 06:00 PM

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Pretty Comerica we had some decent cold this week yet tommore night into saterday we are watching another rain event :lol: the story of 2019-2020 winter so far.I still wouldn't be surprised if our biggest snow storm this winter happens in febuary or March the pattern projected in febuary is not dislike 2006 and 83 cases where temperatures pattern wise we're not to cold but the pattern was active which brought us a big storm it remains to be seen if that happens but can envision something that pops up that is decent in that time periold.