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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

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#1
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:54 PM

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Not sure why the other thread got locked.


  • Timmy_Supercell likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#2
Guest_LaPineLurker_*

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:55 PM

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Ya. What happened?

#3
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:56 PM

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I almost wonder if we got hacked.  The forum acted really weird for a bit.


  • Timmy_Supercell likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#4
Requiem

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:57 PM

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Hmm...weird. Anyways, hoping that both Seattle and Portland do well!


  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 0" :(


#5
KeVamgedon

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:58 PM

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I had to put everyone on lock down. The non-snow event and talk of spring was getting out of control

#6
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:58 PM

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At any rate...

 

I noticed a big flaw in the ECMWF.  Monday evening it has Bellinham at 14 degrees while Seattle is just around freezing with northerly surface pressure gradients and winds.  That will not happen.  If Bellingham is really that cold and winds are blowing down the Sound Seattle would be much colder.


  • DJ Droppin likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#7
HighlandExperience

Posted 11 January 2020 - 05:59 PM

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Not sure why the other thread got locked.

 

Not sure but sure hope the 00z shows good & health CZ over King County. 



#8
Guest_LaPineLurker_*

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:00 PM

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The impending snowstorm locked it up.
  • DJ Droppin likes this

#9
Jesse

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:02 PM

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Not sure why the other thread got locked.


iFred works in mysterious ways.

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.
  • Memer likes this

#10
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:02 PM

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I could kick myself for not thinking more about the Bellingham to Seattle connection in these things.  I've been so focused on the big picture that I totally forgot to take it down to a more focused level when looking at the question of cold.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#11
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:02 PM

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Currently 43F.  Going to be a +2.2F departure which will actually bring our avg down from the +6.1F it's currently at.

 

Now 16 straight days without a negative temp departure.  I feel like that's somewhat uncommon.

 

Probly several more in the pipe down this way as we will be too far south to get in on any action.  I expect us to get to 40F every day for the remainder of the cold season.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

24


#12
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:03 PM

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iFred works in mysterious ways.

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

 

The thread was getting big and bogged down anyway.  Just as well.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#13
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:04 PM

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Currently 43F.  Going to be a +2.2F departure which will actually bring our avg down from the +6.1F it's currently at.

 

Now 16 straight days without a negative temp departure.  I feel like that's somewhat uncommon.

 

Probly several more in the pipe down this way as we will be too far south to get in on any action.  I expect us to get to 40F every day for the remainder of the cold season.

 

We have fared a lot better up here.  Sounds awful.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#14
wxmet

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:04 PM

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Great c-zone setup on the NAM 00z starts up north shifts down to Seattle maintaining intensity.
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#15
Guest_LaPineLurker_*

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:06 PM

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Looks like the front is moving in faster than modeled. Maybe a shift in the next 24-36 hours coming?
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#16
iFred

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:07 PM

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Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge
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#17
hawkstwelve

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:09 PM

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00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

Attached Files


  • Skagit Weather and kokaneekidz like this

#18
TT-SEA

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:09 PM

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iFred works in mysterious ways.

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.


Jesse should be perma-banned. Spends most of time obsessing about other members.
  • luvssnow_seattle likes this

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#19
hawkstwelve

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:10 PM

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iFred works in mysterious ways.
Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

  

Jesse should be perma-banned. Spends most of time obsessing about other members.


Take it to PMs, ladies.
  • iFred and kokaneekidz like this

#20
Rubus Leucodermis

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:11 PM

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Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge

 

Thanks for all you do to keep this forum running!


  • iFred, Jesse, Skagit Weather and 1 other like this
It's called clown range for a reason.

#21
GHweatherChris

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:12 PM

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Overperformance with snow on the table now!
  • kokaneekidz likes this

#22
GHweatherChris

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:12 PM

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Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge


Doucche Bag Cleanup?
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#23
HighlandExperience

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:13 PM

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00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

 

looks like it is right over U District and NorthGate. Would be nice to see that continue dropping south.


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#24
iFred

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:13 PM

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I almost wonder if we got hacked. The forum acted really weird for a bit.


Not hacked
  • kokaneekidz likes this

#25
TT-SEA

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:13 PM

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Take it to PMs, ladies.


I don't constantly bring up his name. I never do actually.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#26
Rubus Leucodermis

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:13 PM

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I could kick myself for not thinking more about the Bellingham to Seattle connection in these things.  I've been so focused on the big picture that I totally forgot to take it down to a more focused level when looking at the question of cold.

 

Yes, but Seattle doesn’t always get a share of the arctic goodies that Whatcom County gets.


It's called clown range for a reason.

#27
HighlandExperience

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:14 PM

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00z 3K NAM appears to drop the CZ south until it hits northern Pierce and than fizzles out. I'm not sure though. 



#28
MossMan

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:18 PM

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00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

Goes to show you how things keep changing. Now shows my old place getting more snow than me. Might have to just wait until the first flakes fly!
  • kokaneekidz likes this

#29
nwsnow

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:18 PM

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We have fared a lot better up here.  Sounds awful.

 

Rooting for you guys to all get a couple inches of snow up there. Hopefully the CZ and the arctic front offers some pleasant surprises.


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#30
Requiem

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:19 PM

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Rooting for you guys to all get a couple inches of snow up there. Hopefully the CZ and the arctic front offers some pleasant surprises.

 

Feeling a little better about our chances too!


  • nwsnow likes this

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 0" :(


#31
Jginmartini

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:19 PM

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Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge

Reset.....all ahead winter mode!


Layman’s terms please 😁

#32
Randyc321

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:20 PM

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I haven't seen any mention of GFS MOS guidance so I thought I would post some locales.

(Notice the sharp temp diff between Kelso and Olympia)  (Also, Bremerton is colder than at Olympia hours earlier)

Attached Files

  • Attached File  Eve.PNG   63.2KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  Sea.PNG   61.43KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  Kel.PNG   61.43KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  Oly.PNG   62.84KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  Brem.PNG   65.32KB   0 downloads

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#33
hawkstwelve

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:20 PM

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Per 00z NAM..

CZ starts off the Strait around 2PM and makes its way to the King/Sno border around 5PM. It intensifies there until it starts dropping south again around 11PM, albeit in a weakened form, and fizzles in Pierce around 7AM.

Seems like a reasonable progression to me, if we can get the north wind going. Monitoring the Fraser outflow gradient will be one of the keys for tomorrow.
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#34
TacomaWaWx

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:20 PM

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42 here in Tacoma. 0.03" of rain today. Been breezy this afternoon and evening...gusting 35-40mph out of the SW. Funny that the nws was predicting windy conditions yesterday and it's actually a lot breezier today than yesterday.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-0.00”(80+)days-2 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 June Rainfall-0.00”

#35
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:23 PM

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00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

 

Looking better.


  • kokaneekidz likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#36
GHweatherChris

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:24 PM

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I think I should see 0-15" of this coming week!

#37
TacomaWaWx

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:25 PM

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Per 00z NAM..
CZ starts off the Strait around 2PM and makes its way to the King/Sno border around 5PM. It intensifies there until it starts dropping south again around 11PM, albeit in a weakened form, and fizzles in Pierce around 7AM.
Seems like a reasonable progression to me, if we can get the north wind going. Monitoring the Fraser outflow gradient will be one of the keys for tomorrow.

Seems like none of the models have the details figured out and it's a little less than 24 hours out.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-0.00”(80+)days-2 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 June Rainfall-0.00”

#38
Deweydog

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:26 PM

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New thread, same shitty models!
  • DJ Droppin likes this
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#39
Guest_LaPineLurker_*

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:27 PM

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Temps running a good 4-6 degrees colder over here as opposed to last night. Upper levels are most likely colder. Bodes well for spots 500-1000'for Sunday night over there I would think.

#40
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:27 PM

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Yes, but Seattle doesn’t always get a share of the arctic goodies that Whatcom County gets.

 

That's why I clarified the surface winds will be northerly.  A direct connection to the cold pool.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#41
bainbridgekid

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:28 PM

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Seems like none of the models have the details figured out and it's a little less than 24 hours out.

I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the point where models can nail down the exact location and strength of small scale features like the CZ.

Large scale synoptic storms are are a completely different animal.
  • kokaneekidz likes this

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 


#42
TacomaWaWx

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:32 PM

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I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the point where models can nail down the exact location and strength of small scale features like the CZ.
Large scale synoptic storms are are a completely different animal.

more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-0.00”(80+)days-2 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 June Rainfall-0.00”

#43
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:41 PM

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233 pages for the 1st topic

#44
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:41 PM

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We have fared a lot better up here. Sounds awful.


Yep. We call it fallspring since we never have sub-freezing highs anymore. We also almost never have any January snow. I think Jan 2017 is the only one this decade.
  • kokaneekidz and El_Nina like this

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

24


#45
Guest_LaPineLurker_*

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:41 PM

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What is the c-zone?

#46
Jesse

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:42 PM

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Some healthy looking showers moving onshore. Down to 43, DP 35.

Cascades are gonna get walloped tonight.
  • Requiem likes this

#47
bainbridgekid

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:43 PM

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Interesting Seattle Zone Forecast for tomorrow night:

Sunday Night
Breezy. Rain at times in the evening. Snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Snow level near sea level. Snow accumulation of 1 to 5 inches. Lows near 30. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 


#48
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:43 PM

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more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.

 

I can see it.  100 years in the future weather models have been perfected and are always right except the bloody c-zone!


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#49
snow_wizard

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:45 PM

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What is the c-zone?

 

The Puget Sound convergence zone.  SW winds come around the south end of the Olympic Mountains and NW winds come around the north end of the Olympics and meet over the Central Puget Sound.  There are dozens of variations depending on many factors.


  • kokaneekidz likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#50
hawkstwelve

Posted 11 January 2020 - 06:46 PM

hawkstwelve

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  • LocationMaple Valley, WA
Pretty easy to see why the NAM thinks the CZ will slide south so easily. Nice northerly flow down the Sound by Sunday night. Euro doesn't even start outflow until around this time.

Here's the link to monitor the Fraser gradient tomorrow for anyone interested.

http://wxweb.meteost...hoice=KBLI CYWL

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