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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

Can our luck change?
* * * * * 2 votes

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#1
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:05 PM

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I'm sure a lot are storm thread weary after such a dis-heartening bust with this weekend's storm but here we are with models agreeing on energy for another system with the complete array of p-types being advertised for this Sub. Models are bouncing around with strength of SLP and cold air mass in place prior to the system forming east of the Rockies. 12z suite took a favorable colder step for those further south but it looks like this will be another nail-biter for many of us. Let the model mayhem begin..

 

12z EC ENS would be a win for many of us south of 43N

 

Attached File  20200112 12z EC ENS_snowfall_h186.png   504.1KB   1 downloads


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 21.6"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 6.7 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#2
hlcater

Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:17 PM

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rain


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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 19.7"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7) (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn


#3
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:29 PM

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rain

 

18z ICON certainly is a Hot mess

 

Attached File  20200112 18z ICON h120.png   226.13KB   2 downloads


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 21.6"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 6.7 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#4
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:33 PM

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18z ICON certainly is a Hot mess

attachicon.gif20200112 18z ICON h120.png

ICON for the win. Lock it in.
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#5
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:51 PM

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Oops on my post above..forgot ICON does not resolve/reflect any ZR/IP, so some of that over IA might be frozen messiness?

 

 

Disclaimer- 24hr maps below at h138 to eliminate contamination prior to this system.

 

Looking at the warmer, less favorable 18z GFS and comparing SLR to KCH for here, they both indicate about 5" (24 hrs to focus this event). That should mean 10:1 ratio "thump" snow. Then it rises above freezing and rains for some hours. 

 

Attached File  20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr SLR snow.png   337.05KB   3 downloads

Attached File  20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr KCH snow.png   335.75KB   2 downloads

 

Can clearly see on the KCH map how the colder air to the north fluffs up ratios and amounts nicely. 


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 21.6"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 6.7 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#6
Hawkeye

Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:51 PM

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I'm just not confident there will be enough cold air to allow for a solid thump here before it changes to mix/rain.


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season snowfall: 21.4"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#7
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:09 PM

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12z GEM also portrayed a similar 4-5" front-ender before it brings a massive batch of rain. Not the best scenario, but in this lack-luster season I'd still take it for the few hrs of decent flakes. 

 

Attached File  20200112 12z GEM SLR 24hr Snowfall h138.png   147.65KB   0 downloads


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 21.6"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 6.7 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#8
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:11 PM

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I'm just not confident there will be enough cold air to allow for a solid thump here before it changes to mix/rain.

 

Yeah, per trends SMI's actually in a better position as that HP sinks SE in Canada keeping the cold around here just long enough (so far)


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 21.6"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 6.7 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#9
dubuque473

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:18 PM

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Not in the bullseye this far out so at least I have that working for me.


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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#10
Niko

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:24 PM

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Oops on my post above..forgot ICON does not resolve/reflect any ZR/IP, so some of that over IA might be frozen messiness?

 

 

Disclaimer- 24hr maps below at h138 to eliminate contamination prior to this system.

 

Looking at the warmer, less favorable 18z GFS and comparing SLR to KCH for here, they both indicate about 5" (24 hrs to focus this event). That should mean 10:1 ratio "thump" snow. Then it rises above freezing and rains for some hours. 

 

attachicon.gif20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr SLR snow.png

attachicon.gif20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr KCH snow.png

 

Can clearly see on the KCH map how the colder air to the north fluffs up ratios and amounts nicely. 

I'll take this! :D


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#11
Niko

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:27 PM

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My take is that it might go to briefly rain or drizzle early saturday morning b4 changing back to snow as much colder air rushes in.  But b4 that, several inches of snowfall falls. We will see!


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#12
TOL_Weather

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:27 PM

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Oh yay, another January rainstorm. Maybe we'll even get a dusting of snow.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 11.4"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#13
Tom

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:34 PM

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I'm sure a lot are storm thread weary after such a dis-heartening bust with this weekend's storm but here we are with models agreeing on energy for another system with the complete array of p-types being advertised for this Sub. Models are bouncing around with strength of SLP and cold air mass in place prior to the system forming east of the Rockies. 12z suite took a favorable colder step for those further south but it looks like this will be another nail-biter for many of us. Let the model mayhem begin..

12z EC ENS would be a win for many of us south of 43N

20200112 12z EC ENS_snowfall_h186.png


If there was a time you would pick a pattern that had a chance to seed cold air into a system it would be this one. A 1040mb or greater HP to our norther may do the trick for our region. I’m sure we will see some shifts in the coming days. Need that High to not slide east so quickly.
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#14
james1976

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:38 PM

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Not feeling too confident being on the south edge right now
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#15
Grizzcoat

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:39 PM

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Not really concerned about surface temps; I think they will remain just above 32F or so for max on FRI here in C.IA. It's the 850 temps that are bit concerning and if guidance holds it would be another L over Iowa. Imagine that.


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#16
Niko

Posted 12 January 2020 - 05:47 PM

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Oh yay, another January rainstorm. Maybe we'll even get a dusting of snow.

:lol:



#17
Madtown

Posted 12 January 2020 - 07:54 PM

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F this winter
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#18
Grizzcoat

Posted 12 January 2020 - 07:59 PM

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Dont know if it will make a difference or not this run of the GFS- but through HR 99- 850mb 0C line is further S than previous runs


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#19
Madtown

Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:01 PM

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'nope still F this winter😁💩

#20
Money

Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:06 PM

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Amazing how consistent the models have been with this one
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#21
Grizzcoat

Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:12 PM

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^^ they will go all different directions on Thursday.... :D


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#22
Madtown

Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:14 PM

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not watching weather this week
...if it starts snowing Fri I'll stop in ad see what the hell is going on. if it starts raining I'll start laughing.
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#23
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:25 PM

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13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!)

 

Attached File  20200113 0z GFS h132 24hr KCH snow.png   347.84KB   14 downloads


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 21.6"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 6.7 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#24
Stormhunter87

Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:01 PM

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Still showing a major ice event bleh.

#25
Stormhunter87

Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:04 PM

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Interesting oax is going with snow likely Thursday night through Friday.

#26
Hawkeye

Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:26 PM

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*
POPULAR

00z Euro is much colder, keeps many of us all snow.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

sn10_024h.us_mw.png


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season snowfall: 21.4"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#27
james1976

Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:29 PM

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13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!)

20200113 0z GFS h132 24hr KCH snow.png

Dear God that is a tight gradient over here
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#28
ToastedRavs

Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:30 PM

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Please let this one go the European way. Rather be pummeled by snow than all the ice the GFS has!

#29
snowstorm83

Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:34 PM

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Seems like it doesn't really get going until it's west of the Missouri 


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 6.8" (so far)  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#30
Tom

Posted 13 January 2020 - 01:42 AM

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As Hawkeye posted, the Euro is certainly coming in much colder as that strong 1042mb HP across Ontario is seeding a lot more colder air across the MW/GL's region.  This system sorta has that look of a classic CO Low but the pressure pattern is stretched out up into the Upper MW.  Now, if this thing would come out more tightly wrapped up we would be seeing another version of GHD-2 Blitz (2015 analog).  Let's see where the models take this system.

 

 

 

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#31
Tom

Posted 13 January 2020 - 02:33 AM

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Taking a look deeper into the GEFS/EPS, I'm seeing many members shifting South as the strength of the Canadian HP seems to be "pressing" as we get closer.  Positive trends over the past few runs.

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_162.png

 

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_168.png

 

 

 

Woah, there was a significant southerly shift in the EPS members with about 50-70% of its members showing all snow from IA/N IL/N IN on north.  That's a pretty big sign that the models were under playing the strength of the Canadian HP just a couple days ago.  Hopefully these trends continue as we are getting inside 5 days.

 

We haven't seen to many systems where there is a massive Hudson Bay/Ontario Block in place to deliver and drive the cold, dense, arctic air into a system.  Took a glance at the EPS MSLP mean and it looks like its trying to "tighten" up the SLP as it ejects out of CO and takes a track almost due west/east towards the Lower Lakes.

 

00z EPS Snow mean trending S and also showing some very nice hits for the MW/GL's peeps.  I don't have access to Hourly snowfall total maps for the Euro Control like WxBell has, but I'll tell you that it is showing a widespread significant snowfall from E NE, IA, N/C IL, N/C IN, MN, WI and all of MI.  It even snows into N MO which is a big shift to a colder look.

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#32
Tom

Posted 13 January 2020 - 02:38 AM

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06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#33
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2020 - 02:41 AM

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DMX buying into the Euro?.


Beyond this, all eyes are on the large storm system slated to
affect the region at the end of the week. Confidence in the
overall timing and general track of this system have increased
steadily over the last couple days, and it is fair to now say that
precipitation is very likely from late Thursday night into Friday
night, and relatively robust precipitation amounts are also
becoming more likely. What is less certain is precipitation type,
although the trend has certainly been toward colder/snowier
solutions, and also the portion of the region most likely to see
the heaviest precipitation. Thus while it is still difficult to
message the finer details, and certainly too easy to forecast
location-specific snowfall amounts with any confidence whatsoever,
what can be stated is that the potential for a winter storm to
affect parts, if not all, of Iowa around Friday is increasing. In
wake of this storm strong winds are likely to push in Friday
night/Saturday morning, potentially reaching advisory levels and
causing blowing/drifting in any areas that do receive significant
snowfall, and colder temperatures are again likely for the weekend
and into early the following week.

&&
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#34
Tom

Posted 13 January 2020 - 03:14 AM

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06z GEFS...another run where more members showing snow farther south...

 

 

 

 

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#35
dubuque473

Posted 13 January 2020 - 03:32 AM

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I like what DVN is saying but with 4 days out....a big one has to pan out eventually right?


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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#36
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2020 - 03:33 AM

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06z GEFS...another run where more members showing snow farther south...

Wow I didn't think I could get in the game here, keep sinkin south baby!


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#37
MIKEKC

Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:38 AM

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Clinton,

OMG...what just happened at Arrowhead yesterday? I think you said you were going to that game. I didn’t go but I will be going next week.

Spot a team 24 points and then go on a 51-7 run.....what? How??
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#38
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:18 AM

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Clinton,

OMG...what just happened at Arrowhead yesterday? I think you said you were going to that game. I didn’t go but I will be going next week.

Spot a team 24 points and then go on a 51-7 run.....what? How??

Insane I'm still trying to recover!  How much snow did you end up with?


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#39
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:20 AM

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6z EC trending colder and further south.

1579413600-Jwb7PjlQBBo.png


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#40
MIKEKC

Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:40 AM

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Insane I'm still trying to recover! How much snow did you end up with?



#41
MIKEKC

Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:41 AM

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2.1 inches
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#42
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 January 2020 - 06:00 AM

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Such an expansive precip shield with this. That should allow for a decent hit for many regardless of where the low actually tracks.
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#43
East Dubzz

Posted 13 January 2020 - 06:18 AM

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Oh wow, nice to see this on the horizon!

 

Already a 90% of precipitation on Friday?? Wow.


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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 34.84"

September rainfall total: 11.92"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 3.21" (9/15)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3


#44
Niko

Posted 13 January 2020 - 06:41 AM

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13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!)

 

attachicon.gif20200113 0z GFS h132 24hr KCH snow.png

Beautiful map. Near a foot for mby!!! :D


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#45
gimmesnow

Posted 13 January 2020 - 07:33 AM

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Hope this thing cools off. I rather have less snow for myself if that means fewer people get ice. Ice is really bad news for everyone and you can't even have any fun with it.

 

Just a casual observation, but I noticed when we get precip and it gets warm after, we're in a bad pattern, and when it gets cold after we're in something good. The last few years have seen precip and then warmth to burn off all the snow. After this forecasted event, forecasted temps look to plummet. This reminds me of the 13/14 winter where we got snow, then brutal cold, then more snow. Hopefully, we can get some of that back.


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#46
bud2380

Posted 13 January 2020 - 07:34 AM

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Even the ICON is coming in colder!  

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png


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Season Snowfall 13.2"


#47
james1976

Posted 13 January 2020 - 07:45 AM

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Having a snowstorm during daylight would sure be something for a change
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#48
Stacsh

Posted 13 January 2020 - 07:54 AM

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Even the ICON is coming in colder!  

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

 

And then turns into a rain storm for SMI of course. 



#49
bud2380

Posted 13 January 2020 - 07:55 AM

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GFS looking further south and colder thru 90 hours. 


Season Snowfall 13.2"


#50
bud2380

Posted 13 January 2020 - 08:01 AM

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Solid front end thump on the GFS, but the low does still track pretty far north and turns this to freezing rain/drizzle in Iowa.

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


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Season Snowfall 13.2"