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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

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#1
Madtown

Posted 25 January 2020 - 09:22 PM

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Winter will show sometime!!!

#2
Tom

Posted 26 January 2020 - 02:18 AM

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As we count down the days to Super Bowl weekend, a very fascinating wx pattern is setting up over North America as we enter a highly amplified and likely create an extreme temp gradient pattern across our Sub right around the tail end of the Big Football weekend next week.  Let's dive in...

 

I find it interesting that the Euro Op/EPS has been consistent on flipping the EPO regime from the sky high (+) readings towards a neutral/slightly (-) pattern right towards the beginning of the month.  Are the stars aligning and is this the REAL pattern Flip that has been lurking in the model world in the extended but never hit and held???  Numerous variables seem to be coming together with respect to the entire scope of the North American pattern.  Gone will be the zonal flow we are currently experiencing as we welcome a more progressive and active regime to kick start the Final month of Met Winter.  You know, if it wasn't for the non-favorable teleconnections to finish off January, some of us on here would have had an epic finish to the month of January, instead, Mother Nature may be delaying the fun and games for this month.  I don't know about you, but I'm still yearning for the following:

1) Winter Storm Warning (Blizzard would be nice) 
2) Arctic Air (Polar Vortex visit would be nice)

3) Sustained Cold/Storms

 

I've been calling for the cold and it hasn't come to the magnitude I had in mind.  Yes, that is my fault but as I analyze what is happening across the Northern Hemisphere, I can see those LR variables which didn't come into fruition for the 2nd half of January, may finally be aligning to open up Feb and hopefully continue throughout the month of Feb.  In other words, Ol' Man Winter is showing signs of a comeback towards real winter (which we haven't experienced thus far) and deliver the goods.

 

The main problem we have had so far this winter is getting the Blocking to work in tandem with storm systems that have been cycling regularly according to the LRC and the cyclical pattern.  Yes, we have had the storms and moisture but the lack of sustained cold has been all but non existent.  This is about to change and IMO, the EPS has been leading the way and showing run to run consistency of flipping the nature of the pressure pattern across the NE PAC/NW NAMER next week.  This pattern change begins in earnest during Super Bowl weekend as the EPO tanks, Blocking develops near Greenland (which I have opined would happen based on the 10mb Strat pattern I use) and the resurgence of the North American/Polar Vortex (possible split). 

 

Speaking of the PV, last night's 00z GFS Op showed a definite Split just beyond Day 10...interesting to say the least, as the EPS has been showing several members of this happening as well.  Let's see if the trend will continue or if this is a fluke run as has happened this season.  Low Solar suggests that its more than likely to happen this season and has been my pre-season long standing prediction.

 

 

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_24.png

 

 

Storms????  Well, there are plenty on the calendar and with the jet stream reaching peak intensity coupled with high lat blocking, things could really fire up as we open up the month.  Last night's 00z EPS has trended colder and more wintry across the heartland up into the OHV/GL's region by the 4th/5th and pressing arctic air into the pattern alongside an active STJ, that will come to play, all day...esp, with a -PNA....LOL...tryin' hard to bust a rhyme on a dime!

 

Meantime, enough of the LR talk, let's get down to tracking storm systems and seeing what could be on the table for Super Bowl weekend.  Last night's 00z GEFS have come back with some interesting members suggesting some sort of development and interaction of both northern/southern stream waves around the GL's/MW region.  Is the Greenland Block aiding in this pattern??  I believe so.

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_168.png

 

 

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

 

 

 

Last, but not least, I'll show you what the 00z EPS is showing for a 5-day mean at 500mb starting on the 4th.  Compare that to the 00z GEFS and the BIG difference is how the models are handling the NE PAC.  Not to mention, the EPS is leaning towards more blocking near Greenland.  Let's see who wins this battle as it is vital to the significance of "pressing" the cold back into the pattern.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png


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#3
FV-Mike

Posted 26 January 2020 - 04:50 AM

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Thanks for the analysis Tom. Always appreciated 


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#4
MIKEKC

Posted 26 January 2020 - 06:52 AM

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Nice work, Tom.

Let’s finish strong!
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#5
Madtown

Posted 26 January 2020 - 08:04 AM

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Here blizzard blizzard blizzard!
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#6
Clinton

Posted 26 January 2020 - 09:23 AM

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GFS consistent with monster storm around the 10th, we can only hope.


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#7
FAR_Weather

Posted 26 January 2020 - 02:36 PM

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I sooooo wish GFS could be trusted @ 384.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#8
Clinton

Posted 26 January 2020 - 03:22 PM

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I sooooo wish GFS could be trusted @ 384.

You and me both!



#9
jaster220

Posted 26 January 2020 - 08:13 PM

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A couple of Feb 10th snow depth maps I'd love to see repeated:

 

1982 & 2014. Both with 20-24" locally!

 

Attached File  19820210 GLs Snow Depth.JPG   24.63KB   0 downloads

 

(never realized the Bliz of '82 somewhat shafted Chicago. Balanced out Jan '79 for Detroit?)

 

Attached File  20140210 GLs Snow Depth.JPG   24.34KB   0 downloads

 

And yeah, that's 24+ inches OTG due south of here in N Indiana! 


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#10
Tom

Posted 27 January 2020 - 02:53 AM

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It didn't take long, but now the GEFS have trended towards the Euro/EPS as we start the first full week of the month.  The model is now firing up the NE PAC ridge and pressing the Arctic Air down south into the CONUS that has been bottled up in AK/NW NAMER for what seems like weeks.  Not only that, but that lovely blocking pattern just SW of Greenland/NE Canada that has fired up at times this season is begin to take shape.  All of these features, including the SSW event, are seemingly coming together and setting up a fascinating winter pattern for our Sub.

 

 

As far as storm potential, I'm looking for a positive titled trough to set up between the 3rd-5th across the Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region with a possible secondary piece of energy riding up a sharp temp gradient pattern early the following week.  At this time, it doesn't look like there will be a wrapped up storm system but more or less and elongated SLP.  This happened in previous LRC cycles, however, during this period, the NAO dips towards neutral and may slow it down a bit to wrap up.  Last night's 00z Euro showed what may actually end up happening but I think its' hanging the energy in the SW to long.

 

 

Following this system, the period between the 7th-10th has my attention as there will be ample arctic air to tap in the pattern as a storm system should be coming out of the SW.  The pattern will continue to be busy and another storm should be right on its heels a few days later.  IMO, with a neutral to (-) EPO pattern developing, I think we will see many systems forming in the "slot" right around the TX PanHandle region during this month.  I like what I'm seeing and if things work out as I'm thinking they will, there will be a lot of happy faces on here.

 

Lastly, while its only the GEPS that are indicating this at the moment, if there were to be a Stratospheric Polar Vortex Split, this could be one hellova month full of major cold and winter storms.  For the 3rd run in a row, the Canadian is suggesting a PV Split.  Let's see how good this model is in the extended and if its reliable or not.

 

 

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_23.png


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#11
bud2380

Posted 27 January 2020 - 05:19 AM

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Pivotal has added UKMET maps and they have 10:1 snowfall maps. Finally!
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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#12
Snowshoe

Posted 27 January 2020 - 06:56 AM

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Here blizzard blizzard blizzard!

 

At this point I'll settle for a clipper train!  -_-


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WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

#13
FAR_Weather

Posted 27 January 2020 - 08:56 AM

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EPS looks rather torchy thru the run, with the coolest we get being around normal. Plains members MIGHT get a decent cold blast for a day or two during the first week of February.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#14
Stacsh

Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:00 AM

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EPS looks rather torchy thru the run, with the coolest we get being around normal. Plains members MIGHT get a decent cold blast for a day or two during the first week of February.

 

Yep, I've been saying trust the trends, not the fantasy maps. 


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#15
jaster220

Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:13 AM

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Yep, I've been saying trust the trends, not the fantasy maps. 

 

I'm not really eager to track this stat down, partly due to the work involved, and partly due to the depressing topic, but I'd be curious when the last time this region was heading into Feb with such low snow totals?  2011-12 was overall BN and 2009-10 was pretty lame but rescued with an awesome Feb. My gut feeling is it was one of those two seasons. 


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#16
Stacsh

Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:19 AM

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I'm not really eager to track this stat down, partly due to the work involved, and partly due to the depressing topic, but I'd be curious when the last time this region was heading into Feb with such low snow totals?  2011-12 was overall BN and 2009-10 was pretty lame but rescued with an awesome Feb. My gut feeling is it was one of those two seasons. 

 

I'm hoping it's a fast and furiously snowy cold  Feb and then bounce into spring in March.  


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#17
jaster220

Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:49 AM

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On the LR outlook, OHwx chimed-in this past Thur. His take more or less aligns with Tom's post above, tho he includes some caveats wrt the timing..

 

 

So, long story short, the strength of the stratospheric PV is both causing the bad pattern we've been in and making it more resistant to change than normal.  However, climatology, more active Pacific tropical forcing, an increase in momentum in the mid-latitudes due to positive East Asian Mountain Torque events, and shortening wavelengths all suggest that the stratospheric PV should gradually weaken, and in fact the extended range GFS op and EPS, which have both done well with showing a strong PV through the winter, do show some signs of weakening by early February.

I am somewhat in the camp of "I'll believe it when I see it" myself in regards to any sort of change to a substantially colder pattern, but the EPS weeklies and CFS continually show a seasonable to somewhat cold pattern developing during the first week of February and generally continuing through the month (with some ebbs and flows), and if we can ever shake the strong PV and the pattern it has created, the other sub-seasonal forcings don't really argue for warmth...the question is, can we do it in time to salvage a good chunk of February?  I don't know the answer and have gotten burned by being too optimistic on that timing over the last few weeks.

I do think in the next two weeks that we'll see the PNA spike positive at times as the +EAMT extends the Pacific jet, though the AO, EPO, and NAO will be a different story until the stratospheric PV gets knocked back some.  The earliest that can start occurring is 10-15 days from now, though I suspect it's not until at least the second week of February that we see more material changes in those areas, and until that time it will be tough to lock in any sort of cold air.  However, any PNA spikes may give us enough polar influence to make all of this subtropical jet energy running around at least a bit interesting in the meantime.


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#18
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 January 2020 - 10:32 AM

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12Z Euro blowtorch this weekend.  



#19
Stacsh

Posted 27 January 2020 - 10:34 AM

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12Z Euro blowtorch this weekend.  

 

Yeah not a good run so far for winter lovers. 



#20
westMJim

Posted 27 January 2020 - 12:35 PM

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I'm not really eager to track this stat down, partly due to the work involved, and partly due to the depressing topic, but I'd be curious when the last time this region was heading into Feb with such low snow totals?  2011-12 was overall BN and 2009-10 was pretty lame but rescued with an awesome Feb. My gut feeling is it was one of those two seasons. 

At this time Grand Rapids is at 32.5” for the winter season. The last times GR got to February with less snow fall then this year was the winter of 2012/13. At the end of January that winter Grand Rapids only had 24.6” of snow fall but that February had 33.7 and then March had 7.7 and the winter ended up with 66.0”.  The you have to go back to the winter of 1982/83 that year the total going into February was 19.1” the snowiest month that winter was March with 13.2” February only had 2.9” and April added 0.7” for a total of 35.9” in the winter of 2011/12 January had 27.0” and February had 16.2” and in 2009/10 November had 35.4” and of course that is more then GR has had this winter. I do not know the totals for Marshall


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#21
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 January 2020 - 12:39 PM

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Our snow around here took a pounding yesterday.  Basically big piles, some of the larger drifts from Nov. and Dec. storms, yes still around, and snow on the north side of houses/buildings is all that is left.  If we get as warm as the models are predicting, many of us on here will have little to nothing left after the weekend.  



#22
IowaWX82

Posted 27 January 2020 - 04:35 PM

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No changes into mid-February 🤔

Nothing epic or historic about this. Keep leaning on the models weeks out; I’ll keep relying on what has happened all winter.

I am starting to get a little worried, though, that when things finally so shift that we’ll have a delayed spring. I don’t need to be turning my furnace on in the middle of June again 😩

Attached Files


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#23
BrianJK

Posted 27 January 2020 - 05:18 PM

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Just wait... 2 more weeks... big things...

And before you know it, well soon be hearing how this big bad winter of ours (pfff) will hang on through spring (which would suck) and how summer will be short and cool this year (not) and then sometime in August (jumping the gun) we’ll hear about the fast and furious start to next winter....
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#24
jaster220

Posted 27 January 2020 - 06:43 PM

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EPS looks rather torchy thru the run, with the coolest we get being around normal. Plains members MIGHT get a decent cold blast for a day or two during the first week of February.

 

While this winter has blown chunks to date, there were some wicked storms in Ohio's past worth reading about. In case you haven't already found this book, it's a nice way to read about the true historic winters of yore. The link kinda starts mid-way but you can page thru forwards/backwards in time.. 

 

https://books.google...rm 1984&f=false


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#25
jaster220

Posted 27 January 2020 - 07:08 PM

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At this time Grand Rapids is at 32.5” for the winter season. The last times GR got to February with less snow fall then this year was the winter of 2012/13. At the end of January that winter Grand Rapids only had 24.6” of snow fall but that February had 33.7 and then March had 7.7 and the winter ended up with 66.0”.  The you have to go back to the winter of 1982/83 that year the total going into February was 19.1” the snowiest month that winter was March with 13.2” February only had 2.9” and April added 0.7” for a total of 35.9” in the winter of 2011/12 January had 27.0” and February had 16.2” and in 2009/10 November had 35.4” and of course that is more then GR has had this winter. I do not know the totals for Marshall

 

Nice digging for stats there westMJim. As you can see from my signature line, 12-13 was actually snowier down here than 11-12. We also got hit pretty good with the Boxing Day storm on 12-26-12 thus I think end of January's amount was better as well. As for 09-10, while Dec had some decent snow, it was nothing like that total you have for GR which I'm sure includes a bunch of LES since it was cold and windy that month. So, for down this way I still think it's more likely 09-10 or 11-12, but It's close enough I'd need to use KBTL's data set as proxy for KRMY, tho that site also gets much more LES than here so may not be the truest of sources. 


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#26
SE Wisconsin

Posted 27 January 2020 - 08:53 PM

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I'm not buying any sort of talk about any pattern change until it's 2-3 days away and staring us in the face!


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#27
Madtown

Posted 28 January 2020 - 05:54 AM

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Glad I got the title of the thread right..but also disappointed.
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#28
Stacsh

Posted 28 January 2020 - 08:21 AM

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GFS showing a LONG duration event for a lot of the sub 7 days out.  Just be right for once this year a week out...


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#29
Tom

Posted 28 January 2020 - 08:27 AM

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GFS showing a LONG duration event for a lot of the sub 7 days out. Just be right for once this year a week out...


Fits the LRC and something I noted a few days would prob end up becoming an elongated SLP that could wrap up into a formidable storm if the blocking upstream in SE Canada/Greenland strong enough. FWIW, some of the recent ensembles has this idea. Let’s hope it continues a trend.
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#30
Clinton

Posted 28 January 2020 - 08:44 AM

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GFS showing a LONG duration event for a lot of the sub 7 days out.  Just be right for once this year a week out...

GFS and Icon are in general agreement for the 4th and 5th.


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#31
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:02 AM

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My gosh.  If the GFS could verify anywhere near what it is showing, there would be many happy people on here.  Not going to assume anything this winter but fun to look at.


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#32
Hawkeye

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:06 AM

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Haha.... 12z GFS is a weenie run among weenie runs.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_65.png


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#33
jaster220

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:33 AM

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:lol:  ^^^ Gimme my 29" of SLEET!   :lol:


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#34
East Dubzz

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:35 AM

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d**n, can't wait for that to happen.


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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 34.84"

September rainfall total: 11.92"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 3.21" (9/15)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3


#35
Niko

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:41 AM

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:lol:  ^^^ Gimme my 29" of SLEET!   :lol:

:lol:


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#36
Niko

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:42 AM

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At least we now have a "Fantasy Storm" to look forward too. Couple of days ago, we did not even have that. Yayyyyy

 

GO GFS!!!!! ;)


 


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#37
jaster220

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:49 AM

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d**n, can't wait for that to happen.

 

Watch this happen as Tom alluded to a "look alike" pattern to the Feb 2018 snow blitz over here. And per this winter, the torch and flooding afterwards would be easily predictable!  


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#38
GDR

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:52 AM

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A 49er’s win and a snowstorm I’ll take it!!

#39
jaster220

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:54 AM

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I'm not really eager to track this stat down, partly due to the work involved, and partly due to the depressing topic, but I'd be curious when the last time this region was heading into Feb with such low snow totals?  2011-12 was overall BN and 2009-10 was pretty lame but rescued with an awesome Feb. My gut feeling is it was one of those two seasons. 

 

Wow, I didn't know how "lucky" I was in both those seasons compared to some places eastward. Here's some numbers from Toronto for example!

 

In 2011-12 Toronto got 17" and 20.6" in 2009-10

 

:blink: 


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#40
GDR

Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:55 AM

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*
POPULAR

Attached File  2B82D2B1-26F3-4573-8B54-EAFA66CF5257.jpeg   653.42KB   8 downloads
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#41
FAR_Weather

Posted 28 January 2020 - 10:02 AM

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Quick, start a thread.

 

Lol @ Lansing getting 40" by the end of the run.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#42
Tony

Posted 28 January 2020 - 10:10 AM

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Unfortunately this might turn out to be a mixed event again as cold air is hard to find in this event for early next week so would not get my hopes up just yet.


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#43
GDR

Posted 28 January 2020 - 10:16 AM

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Don’t worry it will be gone next run

#44
Niko

Posted 28 January 2020 - 10:18 AM

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I'd say we have Jaster start a thread......The last time Jaster started one, I received 11" outta that storm :lol: ;). Go ahead buddy....start one.....


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#45
Hawkeye

Posted 28 January 2020 - 10:40 AM

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The 12z Euro actually is not that far away from the GFS.  It now also flattens the front and rides a couple waves along it.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#46
Tom

Posted 28 January 2020 - 11:23 AM

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Watch this happen as Tom alluded to a "look alike" pattern to the Feb 2018 snow blitz over here. And per this winter, the torch and flooding afterwards would be easily predictable!  

Minus the Torch!



#47
East Dubzz

Posted 28 January 2020 - 12:01 PM

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Unfortunately this might turn out to be a mixed event again as cold air is hard to find in this event for early next week so would not get my hopes up just yet.

 

Wouldn't get too caught up with that quite yet. At this point, just expect 2+ feet. 


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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 34.84"

September rainfall total: 11.92"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 3.21" (9/15)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3


#48
jaster220

Posted 28 January 2020 - 12:31 PM

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Wouldn't get too caught up with that quite yet. At this point, just expect 2+ feet. 

 

lol, freal??? Hard to tell if that was "hidden sarc" or what?  :lol:


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#49
jaster220

Posted 28 January 2020 - 12:35 PM

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Minus the Torch!

 

Boy oh boy, let's hope so!  The aftermath flooding that began with the heavy rain on the 20th really left a bad after-taste for that otherwise awesome stretch. And, I think I was wrong in saying it's been since Dec of '16 that we had no Watch/Warning here. We certainly got a Warning 2 yrs ago, tho I don't remember the Watch for some reason. 


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#50
jaster220

Posted 28 January 2020 - 12:36 PM

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Sleet contaminated like the TT maps or not?


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967