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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Madtown

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Models are all over the place with next week's storm.  The Euro just jumped north and has rain for most of us again.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last night's 00z EPS definitely showing a lot of spread in the members.  Many of them split the energy with a lead wave tracking across the north and then a second wave developing along the boundary.  Given the state of the teleconnections during this period, that is a viable outcome.  We have seen this pattern play out time and time again over the past several weeks.  Until some durable blocking sets up, this is prob the pattern we should expect.

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Been sometime since I can remember the 7-10+ range of 06Z GFS and 00 EURO be so different. Both show ridges in the W with PAC air but the strength of the ridges is vastly different with EURO showing multiple 1050 Highs while the GFS has them much weaker and allows some pretty good waves to run or cut into the Lakes. The GFS has been crushing the Euro of late in the 5-7 day range. Going to be stuck with PAC air after DAy 8-9 but if the GFS (overall pattern not just one run)  is right - cutters to the Lakes.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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^ actually just saw the raw #'s for the last 5 days or so of the 06 GFS-- actually seasonal to below normal. Also the Euro Control is quite different the OP run-- not only further S with the system early next week (see below) but not as strong as PAC H in the west. It also develops a strong NW flow with a large trough in the E in the  12-15 day range http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfa1ec/00Z/ecmwfa1ec-null--usnc-138-C-frozen1024.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro control day 12 and 15 (another strong push of Arctic air with a clipper like system) not saying this Gospel but the pattern (if right) show winter is far from over. http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfa1ec/00Z/ecmwfa1ec---conus-360-C-mslpthkpcp_white.pnghttp://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfa1ec/00Z/ecmwfa1ec---conus-294-C-mslpthkpcp_white.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Back to clear skies and warming temps.....and waiting for the next front.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Expecting some snowsqualls today. Hopefully they can give an inch or so. Near zero tanite or subzero temps. Coldest air of this Winter season and yet, here we are almost mid February.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gary Lezak and the LRC, he’s on the blog stating we forecasted this storm 55 days ago....yet, on his local forecast on Friday last week, it read, “no major storms through next week” his web forecast said the same. Yet, all along the LRC knew. BS!

 

For years now, all the LRC pushers, I have asked for a week by week forecast for K.C. after the pattern sets up, to date, not one has offered that up! I don’t think it can come in at 35 percent accurate, I think I can guess and score at 35 percent.

 

If the LRC knows like some claim, can you tell me if KC,

 

Will have a wet spring. A cool spring or a warm spring

What will happen on the 4th of July, Memorial Day, Father’s Day, Mother’s d Day,

 

Hot summer?

 

Drought?

 

So many LRC pushers claimed that this would be a cold winter. Why? It was because cycle one had record fall cold in it and if the pattern is cycling, sure enough, it will be much colder when winter is here. Go back and read the comments...

 

What happens when the LRC doesn’t behave? No discussion on that, we just move onto the next match we can find to help satisfy the narrative.

 

Somebody, please, to help verify this LRC tool, will you give me a forecast for KC using the LRC.

 

Warmer weeks

Colder weeks

When will storms hit

How many more snows

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Light snow attm. Temp at 29F. Its gorgeous out there. Approaching ever so slowly to 1.7".

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gary Lezak and the LRC, he’s on the blog stating we forecasted this storm 55 days ago....yet, on his local forecast on Friday last week, it read, “no major storms through next week” his web forecast said the same. Yet, all along the LRC knew. BS!

 

For years now, all the LRC pushers, I have asked for a week by week forecast for K.C. after the pattern sets up, to date, not one has offered that up! I don’t think it can come in at 35 percent accurate, I think I can guess and score at 35 percent.

 

If the LRC knows like some claim, can you tell me if KC,

 

Will have a wet spring. A cool spring or a warm spring

What will happen on the 4th of July, Memorial Day, Father’s Day, Mother’s d Day,

 

Hot summer?

 

Drought?

 

So many LRC pushers claimed that this would be a cold winter. Why? It was because cycle one had record fall cold in it and if the pattern is cycling, sure enough, it will be much colder when winter is here. Go back and read the comments...

 

What happens when the LRC doesn’t behave? No discussion on that, we just move onto the next match we can find to help satisfy the narrative.

 

Somebody, please, to help verify this LRC tool, will you give me a forecast for KC using the LRC.

 

Warmer weeks

Colder weeks

When will storms hit

How many more snows

I think AT BEST, it can be used as an indication of when pieces of energy might cycle through. Where they track and what they turn into all depends on various other indicators and teleconnections.

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I think AT BEST, it can be used as an indication of when pieces of energy might cycle through. Where they track and what they turn into all depends on various other indicators and teleconnections.

That’s about as simple of an explanation as I would have said. I use the LRC more or less in the 2-4 week range, maybe up to 8 weeks. The farther you go out in time, your having to guess what the other atmospheric variables will be, esp when your in different seasons. Maybe in the future Gary will have a formula that will take into account blocking, Jet stream strength, seasonal adjustment, etc. I’m sure he’s been thinking about this. If I am thinking about it, I’m sure he is.

 

 

The knowledge we have in computer programming and coding, I think it’s only a matter of time he can incorporate that tech into his model. I know people who have coded computer programming into stock/day trading and this concept could work in weather models, IMO. I just disclosed a potential project that I’ve been thinking about over the years I’ve used the LRC.

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I think AT BEST, it can be used as an indication of when pieces of energy might cycle through. Where they track and what they turn into all depends on various other indicators and teleconnections.

 

I've been following the LRC discussion for years and I think Brian pretty much nails it.

 

And Tom...I've been pondering the same kind of project myself :) basically a model taking into account Brian's reasoning.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Went to downtown Detroit this morning to try and score Rage Against the Machine tix. Beautiful scene on my drive down with large flakes flying. Can't remember the last time I saw downtown in daylight in snow, probably the auto show several (10+) years ago. Anyways, I did get some good tickets, show is in July, what a difference it will be buying the tix vs. going to the show!

 

I'm holed up at a local brewery now waiting on the developing squall to the west.

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Made it down to -5.9 on my weather station last night. Coldest low of the season. Looking at the airport obs, the lowest windchill I see from last night was -26.

Back up to 9.7 right now with a high in the low teens today, but right back to the 30s tomorrow, 40s Saturday, and then may hit 50 Sunday and Monday.

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Blowing snow and falling light snow attm w temps at 22F. Its quite wintry out there! Lows tanite near 0-5F above. Wcf will be well below zero.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In his blog today, Lezak says yesterday's storm followed a 58 day cycle (Dec 16 storm - Feb 12 storm).

 

If the next storm begins say Feb 17, there was a weak storm in the central plains 58 days earlier on Dec 21 (see image), but it did not produce any precip to speak of in the central states area. This storm then moved southeast to the gulf coast.

 

So on a 58 day cycle, it seems the Dec 21 storm has to be next week's Feb 17-18 storm - if we have one. Interesting that the NAO was about +1 on Dec 21 and will be around +1 on Feb 17. The AO was about -1 on Dec 21, but will be around +4 Feb 17!!!

 

I would favor a farther north track with the much higher AO this time around. It will be interesting to see how the models sort this out.

 

 

dwm500_test_20191221.gif

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Based on what the models are showing (nada for most of us), it's not out of the question that our snow season is nearly over.  I've had years when not much snow fell after mid February.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Based on what the models are showing (nada for most of us), it's not out of the question that our snow season is nearly over.  I've had years when not much snow fell after mid February.

It's certainly possible, but we've been having snow into March the past couple of winters, and a lot in some cases, and late into March as well.  So i don't think it's quite over yet.  

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As of now, next weeks storm looks like a rainer.........Hoping models go towards a wintry solution during the next several days

 

 

NOAA:

The next storm system organizes over the central Plains Sunday
night/Monday and tracking through Great Lakes/Ohio valley in the
Monday night/Tuesday time-frame. The 12z Euro remains strongest and
tracks the low through or west of southeast Michigan, likely
sufficient to change initial snow over to rain with a nice wind pop
late in the day as cold air comes sweeps back in. However, plenty of
other solutions (Ukmet) indicating a flatter and farther south wave
moving through the Ohio Valley, which would argue for colder/wintry
solution. Too much upstream upper level energy diving into the
Western conus early next week to determine the ultimate outcome at
this time, but obviously EURO Carries a good deal of weight, with
support coming from the ICON as well. Thus, a complete changeover to
rain appears likely.


 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 20F w snowshowers, some hvy in and around my area. Should end as the late afternoon nears and drier air moves on in. Very blustery day outside from what I am seeing from my library room window. Ugh, there goes my outdoor jog today! Guess, I;ll stick w a nice hot chocolate, fireplace and some light office work that needs to get done. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 18F w snowshowers. Blowing snow at times as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today was absolutely amazing on the ski hill at Alpine Valley. The sides of the runs had massive drifts, there were a few areas where there were two feet of powder. It is such light, fluffy, nice snow for snowboarding. Half of one of the black diamond runs was left ungroomed, and the biggest run was completely ungroomed. It was awesome, I haven't had a good taste of winter, with it being in the 10s or single digits and fresh powder all year.

 

I really miss this cold and snow. This 30 degrees stuff can piss off.

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Based on what I'm seeing off the models, essentially the 2nd half of Feb is behaving similarly to the pattern we experienced during the 2nd half of Dec minus the blow torch.  I'll show you what I'm seeing and how it really does "fit" the LRC and while similar but different as the saying goes.  Once we get past the storm system early next week, we will enter a Zonal Flow for about 5 days between the 20th-25th just like we did between Dec 20th-25th (roughly 60 days ago).  Back then we had a different approach to the pattern and North America was flooded with warmth as there was a significant Strat warming ongoing across Canada cutting off any Arctic Air.  This time, however, we have Arctic Air that is bountiful and ready to tap once the blocking begins taking shape which the models are all starting to advertising starting around the 25th.  This is when things get real interesting for our central Plains folks.

 

The 18z GEFS from yesterday show the Zonal Flow later next week/weekend....

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_37.png

 

 

 

One of the signature storms of the LRC that produced a Blizzard for parts of the Dakotas in late December and our Halloween storm is showing up rather significantly in the LR among the ensembles.  If there is something to look forward to for those who have been sitting on the sidelines out west, this is your storm and I got a good feeling this won't be the last as we head into March.  The stars seem to be aligning and I got this funny feeling its about to get wild as the jet cuts underneath the blocking that will be taking shape across North America.  I believe strongly he period between the 24th-27th will feature a massive storm across the heartland.  Early indications that a slow moving storm will dig into the SW and eject out into the Plains/MW.  Depending on how much blocking is present, this may cut up towards the W GL's but may not.  Nonetheless, there is a good signal and using some LR forecasting tools I use, we may in fact be finishing off met Winter with a bang for some peeps on here.

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