Tom Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Alright guys, as we gear up for a Big sporting event this weekend, will we also be gearing up for a potential snowstorm early next week??? After a brief spike in temps across the majority of our Sub this coming weekend, the pattern will turn more wintry as cold air will begin to press its way south coupled with energy that will eject out of the Rockies and the Baja of California. The models are struggling if the energy that comes out of the Rockies in one piece or if its a weaker piece and a secondary more potent wave develops a couple days later. The GFS is the only model that is suggesting a more progressive pattern and has the energy come out quicker while the GGEM/EURO hold back and develop a stronger second wave a couple days later. Let's dive in... 06z GFS.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 06z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Glad you got a thread up bud! Perfect timing. I think we sit well for once. Go Chiefs! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 I got the Chiefs in the Superbowl and a storm to track, this is better than Christmas! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Doesn’t look like thermals will be a problem in SMI. We just need the energy to materialize as the front looks to be south of at least my area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 My office is keeping it short and sweet this morning. Super Bowl weekend will feature near zonal flow aloft withsouthwesterly low level flow bringing in warm temperatures with50s and 60s likely on Sunday, a cold front will setup across farnorthern Missouri so cooler readings possible up north.Models continue to show a potential winter storm on the horizon forlate Monday through Wednesday. Still too early to get into thedetails. This could impact any potential Super Bowl celebrationsacross the Metro area early next week. Stay Tuned... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 I got the Chiefs in the Superbowl and a storm to track, this is better than Christmas! IF both "Big Dance" and models trend favorably, indeed it will be! Best of luck on both buddy! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 From OAX forecast: TuesdayA slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. From the OAX discussion: Monday through Wednesday:The strong shortwave will strengthen and move from the PacificNorthwest over the central CONUS. Confidence is low on exactdetails beginning on Monday. It is likely there will be asignificant cool down Monday with high temperatures about 20degrees cooler than the day before. The system should producesignificant precipitation somewhere in the central CONUS, butmedium term guidance varies greatly in timing and location. Cooltemperatures should be long lived as temperatures should moderateat the end of the forecast period. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Euro with a "Beast" just to my east! Slams SEMI and Niko/Matt. Could be a little bit NW for kismet here. Verbatim tho, it would be an excellent deja-vu event for the 2004-05 analog. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 So we're looking at yet another nice upper trough ejecting into the central US, but then gets sheared out. What's new. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 20200130 0z Euro Snowfall h216.png Euro with a "Beast" just to my east! Slams SEMI and Niko/Matt. Could be a little bit NW for kismet here. Verbatim tho, it would be an excellent deja-vu event for the 2004-05 analog. 15inches for mby Well, I am not going to get excited just yet! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 20200130 0z Euro Snowfall h216.png Euro with a "Beast" just to my east! Slams SEMI and Niko/Matt. Could be a little bit NW for kismet here. Verbatim tho, it would be an excellent deja-vu event for the 2004-05 analog. All the misses north and west this year, this is going to go south for me. Pun intended. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Being this far out, I don't think LOT could hav written their AFD any better. Not worth spending too much time talking about the post Mondaytime frame. The possibilities run the gamut from no storm systemaffecting the area in the GEM, to a potential shovel-able snowmaker, to icy mix, to maybe just rain. There is some clusteringin the ECMWF ensembles for a surface low in eastern IL/western INby Tuesday night, so the GEM`s nothing solution seems unlikely.Beyond that, really no sense in getting into potential details.No changes made to NBM which has chance pops through thepotentially problematic time frame with some transition from rainto snow. Certainly the Tuesday/Wednesday time period bearswatching next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Looks like someone will get a good snowfall. How far south does the cold air sink? What will be the axis of the 500mb trof? Will the main energy come out all at once or in two pieces? Eating our heart out in the Mid-Atlantic..... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Keeping an eye on this system but not looking much more 1-3 inches. Edit: not looking like more than 1-3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Keeping an eye on this system but not looking much more 1-3 inches. Famous last words.., 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Someone let me know if you can see my post. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Famous last words..,Yeah left out a key word "than." Which to be honest is fine. Do I want a blizzard yes but I'll just take getting more snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sorry, got a like. Shadow banding exist. It's a Twitter thing. Looking forward to the 12Z runs... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 06Z GFS looks very good. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 GFS trend is to hold more energy back. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Should I have been banded, probably. When I get board, I listen to music.... Love this pattern. Pivot point looks south of lake Erie. Is this the final sullusion. No. 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12Z ICON gives Nebraska a 3-6" snow depending on location. Heavier in the west and southwest according to Tropical Tidbits. Looks like my area is a general 3-4". There is going to be a stripe of snow someplace across the plains, question as always is where does it set up and does it want to split apart. Many questions remain in imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Should I have been banded, probably. When I get board, I listen to music.... Love this pattern. Pivot point looks south of lake Erie. Is this the final sullusion u. No. GFSUS_prec_snow_153.pngThin stripes of snow like that this far out tend to not end well 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12Z ICON gives Nebraska a 3-6" snow depending on location. Heavier in the west and southwest according to Tropical Tidbits. Looks like my area is a general 3-4". There is going to be a stripe of snow someplace across the plains, question as always is where does it set up and does it want to split apart. Many questions remain in imo. ICON has a major amplification bias outside 60hrs.... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 All the misses north and west this year, this is going to go south for me. Pun intended. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 What???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12Z CMC is wild but I like it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 216 hrs. Give us a break,.... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z GFS mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 216 hrs. Give us a break,....If you look actually looked at the run you would see it splits the storm in several pieces weird run forsure. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 If you look actually looked at the run you would see it splits the storm in several pieces weird run forsure. Good egg... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z Ukie showing multiple waves out ahead of the main energy that holds back in the 4 corners on Wednesday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 ^^^ I'm not savvy wrt the 500 mb Vort maps, but that looks potent as h*ll to my untrained eyes! Meanwhile, GRR coins a new term for our model woes.. -- A signal remains for some snow mid next week --The system for mid next week remains in the models both thedeterministic and the ensembles. The shortwave in question is inthe middle of the Pacific Ocean with a long way to go before itinteracts potentially with our area. Models will continue tobobble north and south with a swath of snow before it zeros in ona location. The time frame of concern is next Tuesday andWednesday. The operational GFS is quicker and further north withthe snow and the Euro is slower and south. Bottom line is we havemany model runs to go before this is a concern. Some of the modelsare trying to merge the northern and southern streams which wouldlead to a deeper slower low like the Euro. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 If you look actually looked at the run you would see it splits the storm in several pieces weird run for sure. Well, maybe we are about to see the 2014 analog trotted out? Seems like whichever model takes whatever trajectory, they mostly converge to a decent hit for SMI. Too far out to count on much, but as posted earlier, I think we sit well with this one (ORD > DTW crew). 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Zzzzzzz.......Another nickel and dimer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Well, maybe we are about to see the 2014 analog trotted out? Seems like whichever model takes whatever trajectory, they mostly converge to a decent hit for SMI. Too far out to count on much, but as posted earlier, I think we sit well with this one (ORD > DTW crew).I think you do also. You seem to get at least a descent hit no matter how the run goes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Well, maybe we are about to see the 2014 analog trotted out? Seems like whichever model takes whatever trajectory, they mostly converge to a decent hit for SMI. Too far out to count on much, but as posted earlier, I think we sit well with this one (ORD > DTW crew).Thats right and take that to the bank!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12Z CMC is wild but I like it.Wat a crusher that is for SMI. Dang! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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