Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I think its time for nowcasting. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 DTX office being very conservative w this storm as usual, but as usual, they will be wrong. W the last storm, I am shocked that they nailed it spot on. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z GFS with impressive lake enhanced totals for Chicago. 3 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Good luck, I think the 3-6 will verify hope you get more. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z GFS Your maps give more snow..thx bud! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Good luck, I think the 3-6 will verify hope you get more. Thx! I'm up for some last-minute good surprises after this ride, haha. Revenge of Winter! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Good luck, I think the 3-6 will verify hope you get more.Thanks amigo! Your area looks to get a couple of inches. Btw: have fun at the parade tomorrow! Seeing the flakes falling along w the Chiefs winning is a nice combo. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Good luck to all of you in the snow path. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Based on all the data, it's no wonder LOT hasn't pulled the trigger yet on a weather headline/advisory. I'm wondering if they will just include the lakeside counties and points south in their next AFD coming up in a couple hours. Needless to say, here are the raw numbers off the various models... 00z UKIE... 00z Canadian... 06z NAM... 06z NAM 3km... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 The 00z Euro still giving us near the lake some hope for a decent snow event and definitely agreeing with the GFS/UKIE of some potential Lehs... @Toledo, might end up being the winner after all sudden done... I also posted the 00z Euro Control... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z EPS...chasing the "weenie band"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looks like LOT neglected to issue any headlines for Chicago and lakeside counties and will leave it for later today. It appears the Lehs/LES signal is looking better but not entirely impressive. I think they are under estimating the set up but who am I to say. 06z GFS a bit weaker overall but still highlighting the LES signal for NE IL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 03z SREF mean for ORD is about 4", DTW 4", GRR 3"... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 If it is a dusting I hope it completely misses us. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 03z SREF mean for ORD is about 4", DTW 4", GRR 3"... [img=https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/03/sref_namer_087_snow_total_mean.gif Nice pinks...either side of us Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looks like snow starts earlier than expected. Not sure why no headline has been posted. Typical NOAA! All local TV Mets are calling 4-7" for mby. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 CLE going very, VERY conservative with this WWA. Surprised DTX hasn't issued one considering every neighboring office has. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Cleveland OH342 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020OHZ003-006>009-017>019-051900-/O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0006.200205T2300Z-200206T1500Z/Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,Fremont, Sandusky, Findlay, Tiffin, and Norwalk342 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO10 AM EST THURSDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulationsof 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.* WHERE...Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, Erie, Hancock, Senecaand Huron counties.* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardousconditions could impact the morning commute.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to begin as allsnow during the early evening, but transition to a wintry mixtoward midnight. Precipitation will be tapering off or changingover to snow mid morning Thursday. Temperatures will remain ator below freezing.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling.The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I’n right on the line this morning. Ice and snow is about 10-15 miles west. We’ll see later this morning. I’m in far SW Tarrant Co (Ft Worth) 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Light snow falling, looking like a 3-5 inch event for mby much less for KC. Looking at the radar central MO is going to get pounded today. Good luck everybody! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Light snow falling, looking like a 3-5 inch event for mby much less for KC. Looking at the radar central MO is going to get pounded today. Good luck everybody!Let the fun begin....... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Look at all that Moisture coming straight to MI from the S. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Look at all that Moisture coming straight to MI from the S.I'm liking the look of that radar. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'm liking the look of that radar.Me too. Very impressive. Also, you can see some darker blue colors, indicative of hvy snow moving in. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 3km NAM crushes the downriver. Also crushes my dreams. Normie NAM is even worse for me, as it bullseyes downtown Detroit. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 3km NAM crushes the downriver. Also crushes my dreams. Normie NAM is even worse for me, as it bullseyes downtown Detroit. The " Detroit Magnet" 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Northern Maine is going to be crushed by this storm. They are going to get 24 hours of moderate snow totaling 8-12", and then the heavy stuff moves in. They may end up with 2-3 feet. This is the kind of scenario I dream of... several inches of snow well out ahead of the main system, then the event climaxes with a strong, wound-up storm that dumps another 8-12". You'd think something like that would happen once in my life. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Moderate to at times heavy snow here with a temp of 26. Had a little excitement on the parade rout as some idiots tried to run from police and got on the parade route in a old Taurus. Great work by the KCPD in getting them off the streets with no one getting hurt. Great job by the Chiefs fans for singing Bad Boys Bad Boys while the police were cuffing them. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Moderate to at times heavy snow here with a temp of 26. Had a little excitement on the parade rout as some idiots tried to run from police and got on the parade route in a old Taurus. Great work by the KCPD in getting them off the streets with no one getting hurt. Great job by the Chiefs fans for singing Bad Boys Bad Boys while the police were cuffing them. Awesome..bring on some here pls.... They are a bunch of "White Trash Losers" 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 By looking at the latest trends, a headline should be posted for DTX Metro by the 4pm package. Accumulations looking like a 3-6inch event on the way. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 The WRF's are trying to show waves of LES showers all day Thu into Fri morning's commute. Not sure what to think of it as the GFS has backed off the LES signal somewhat. 12z GFS... 12z GGEM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 12z Ukie... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 LES on this side of the lake is always a tough call as the parameters almost have to be a perfect setup for us to get any decent snowfall. Don't know what to expect but I would rather go with the unknowns then any modeling at this point. Just looking forward to snow flying for the next couple days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Can't help but think if we had stronger blocking and not the raging +AO/+NAO pattern...this has a remarkably similar path of the GHD-1 Blizzard...just watch, as the jet slows down in Mar & Apr all of these storms that were stretched out waves will end up cycling into monster storms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I have about 2 inches in mby snowfall rates have been just under an inch per hour on average. Lake of the Ozarks region has to be getting pounded. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Can't help but think if we had stronger blocking and not the raging +AO/+NAO pattern...this has a remarkably similar path of the GHD-1 Blizzard...just watch, as the jet slows down in Mar & Apr all of these storms that were stretched out waves will end up cycling into monster storms. Thats been the story of the winter "what might have been" However I am now over my season average for snowfall so I can't complain but it could have been so much more. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Seems like most areas in OK and TX got under forecast. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I have about 2 inches in mby snowfall rates have been just under an inch per hour on average. Lake of the Ozarks region has to be getting pounded.Kinda wanted this to be all in one storm, instead of separate waves and breaks in between. But I guess we have to accept any snow in this type of Winter this year. Got a good friend of mine in Montreal, CA and he told me just now that they are expecting more than a foot of snow from this same storm system. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I have about 2 inches in mby snowfall rates have been just under an inch per hour on average. Lake of the Ozarks region has to be getting pounded. Congrats amigo! My office says hours-n-hours of pixie dust at moderate rates or less. You've had a hot hand this winter compared to many of us. Enjoy it and the parade! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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