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2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter

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#1
Tom

Posted 09 February 2020 - 12:47 AM

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It's starting to look like the models may be converging on a developing winter storm later this week.  A complex situation is evolving where we have 2 pieces of energy potentially phasing somewhere across the MW and wrapping up into a potent storm system with arctic air in toe.

 

Let's discuss...

 

So, we have the Euro, which has been steadfast in ejecting a closed off ULL from the desert SW into the S Plains/MW while a northern piece drives south into the Upper MW/Plains.  Confidence in this particular is solution is growing as we have the GFS and other models starting to latch onto this idea.

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

I can't help but think back to earlier this week when we had a similar storm track up from the deep south Gulf states and up into the App's.  It's been one of the dominant storm tracks since way back in October where we have lacked any cold air to tap.  Is it finally going to change this go-around???  The 00z GEFS animation below looks like a golden track for those in the MW/Lower Lakes region.

 

This map off the 00z EPS is a classic illustration of a direct arctic air connection from the North Pole into the CONUS....it's nice to see for a moment the block over the Pole.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_5.png

 

 

 

Once the system departs, there will be an impressive shot of arctic air....possibly the seasons coldest which will likely ignite the GL's.  Some of the models have a significant backside LES potential for those in MI.  Lot's of moving parts with this storm and an interesting system to track. 


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#2
Tom

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:07 AM

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Last night's 00z GEFS/EPS took a big step towards a wrapped up storm cutting up the OHV....

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_150.png

 

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_108.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_144.png

 

 

 


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#3
Tom

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:24 AM

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00z Euro Control...

 

 


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#4
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:28 AM

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It's a safe bet...
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#5
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 February 2020 - 04:34 AM

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06Z Euro- (trending SE)

ecmwfued---conus-90-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#6
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 February 2020 - 04:36 AM

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compared to 00Z - I can only go out 90 hours on 06Z- but not a good trend and this thing has so much potential to phaseecmwfued---conus-96-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#7
Clinton

Posted 09 February 2020 - 05:33 AM

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6z GFS mean

1581681600-yGtfLplafyE.png


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#8
Stacsh

Posted 09 February 2020 - 05:50 AM

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Doesn’t look good once again. Just not the year for a good wound up GL storm.

#9
MIKEKC

Posted 09 February 2020 - 06:01 AM

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I don’t know about those accumulations that high on some models, temps are forecasted to be 32-35 while this storm tracks NE.

#10
Clinton

Posted 09 February 2020 - 06:45 AM

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12z NAM trending colder and stronger.


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#11
MIKEKC

Posted 09 February 2020 - 06:46 AM

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12z NAM has the storm falling Tuesday night in KC, that would help accumulations. Temps on this run still warm, 32-34 at night!!

Shows 3-4 inches for most of MO on this run.

#12
Niko

Posted 09 February 2020 - 07:17 AM

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Wow..this storm looks like a really good hit for SEMI. Still couple days away, but it looks impressive, especially w a great track.


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#13
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 February 2020 - 07:21 AM

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Icon no bueno.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#14
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 February 2020 - 07:55 AM

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GFS no bueno. Way S.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#15
Clinton

Posted 09 February 2020 - 08:31 AM

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CMC gives a little hope in mby, but need some colder temps.


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#16
Niko

Posted 09 February 2020 - 09:10 AM

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DCT_SPECIAL102_1280x720.jpg


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#17
Hawkeye

Posted 09 February 2020 - 10:21 AM

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Euro is holding fairly steady, with a bit of a south drift.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#18
Tom

Posted 09 February 2020 - 12:19 PM

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12z Euro...

 

 


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#19
Niko

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:07 PM

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NOAA:

 

A more complex and possibly impactful pattern evolution emerges
within the late Wednesday through Thursday periods. The forecast
details derived from this evolution largely governed by how a closed
low fixated over the southwest conus ejects northeast and the degree
this system interacts or phases with amplifying northern stream
energy. Model solution space unsurprisingly unsettled and quite
sensitive to degree of pv interaction, lending to a lower confidence
forecast for this period. With that said, worth acknowledging the
potential for a meaningful accumulating snowfall
, resulting from an
initial period of mid level warm air advection and/or a deeper mid
level dynamic response. There does seem to be general model
consensus for the northern stream system to carry more of an arctic
flavor - currently projected to bring 850 mb temperatures below
-20C by Friday morning.


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#20
Stacsh

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:12 PM

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GRR is confident this will be a decent storm for Southern Michigan
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#21
uticasnow

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:39 PM

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Alot can, and always does change between now and then. Keep our fingers crossed.  We need a good one!


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#22
Clinton

Posted 09 February 2020 - 01:42 PM

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18z NAM

1581552000-NUaacYVZR2o.png



#23
Clinton

Posted 09 February 2020 - 02:02 PM

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18z GFS is warmer and much flatter,

1581660000-8I8m2l9RSYI.png



#24
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 February 2020 - 03:57 PM

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Hope something trends toward a pleasant surprise for you folks up there.
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#25
jaster220

Posted 09 February 2020 - 04:07 PM

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CMC gives a little hope in mby, but need some colder temps.

 

Story of 2019-20


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#26
jaster220

Posted 09 February 2020 - 04:09 PM

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Hope something trends toward a pleasant surprise for you folks up there.

 

I appreciate that OKwx. If we are struggling to be cold enough, it goes without saying this isn't the winter you were hoping for!  :(


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#27
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 February 2020 - 04:24 PM

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I appreciate that OKwx. If we are struggling to be cold enough, it goes without saying this isn't the winter you were hoping for! :(


I know it buddy. It's all good though. I've just had to find other things to focus on this year or I'll get frustrated.

I gripe and complain like everyone else does, but "this, too, shall pass". Winters will come back here. Trends still say sooner rather than later so after 5 years, what's one more? Lol.
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#28
snowstorm83

Posted 09 February 2020 - 04:28 PM

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Not the winter most us were hoping for. Except I think MN and parts of IA have done well.
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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#29
Niko

Posted 09 February 2020 - 08:05 PM

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We need this to phase w the northern energy, otherwise, it will be no good. Timing is everything.


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#30
Hawkeye

Posted 09 February 2020 - 10:21 PM

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00z Euro has expanded the show nw, but it's weak.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#31
Tom

Posted 10 February 2020 - 12:49 AM

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While there is some consistency among the models of trying to phase both streams, the trough being positively tilted is keeping this from becoming a major storm.  Nonetheless, looks like another "stat" padder is in the works.

 

00z Canadian...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Ukie...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Euro...


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#32
Tom

Posted 10 February 2020 - 01:20 AM

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00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_108.png

 

 

00z Euro control...

 

 


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#33
Tom

Posted 10 February 2020 - 01:29 AM

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06z NAM came a bit NW this run...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#34
Tom

Posted 10 February 2020 - 02:12 AM

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06z GFS....

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#35
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 03:33 AM

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3z SREF 

1581616800-fxk7RRzNzOM.png



#36
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 03:34 AM

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06z NAM came a bit NW this run...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

NAM is a little quicker with the cold air and makes all the difference.


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#37
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 03:40 AM

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6z GFS mean looks a little better

1581616800-yLeqRcUu7BU.png

1581616800-HEbhC0yna9Y.png



#38
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 February 2020 - 04:41 AM

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06Z Euro trying to phase a tad more-- but too far E for many members. But Windy City , MI peeps do decent. ecmwfued-null--conus-90-C-kucheratot.png


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#39
Niko

Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:32 AM

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NAM trying to do the phase......

 

F70B0D54-BC2F-4FF0-8B08-61F225CCAC7E.thu


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#40
Tom

Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:45 AM

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12z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#41
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:49 AM

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NAM trying to do the phase......

 

F70B0D54-BC2F-4FF0-8B08-61F225CCAC7E.thu

Has big hit potential for ya bud.


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#42
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:54 AM

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3km NAM sure wish this snow would fall at night.

1581552000-CNbdfg46DN4.png



#43
Niko

Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:56 AM

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Has big hit potential for ya bud.

Hopefully...... :unsure:

 

Otherwise, it will be another small event.


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#44
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:08 AM

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Hopefully...... :unsure:

 

Otherwise, it will be another small event.

I like the direction the 12z ICON is headed.


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#45
bud2380

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:11 AM

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Sure would be nice if this could phase just a touch quicker.  


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#46
Hawkeye

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:16 AM

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I like the direction the 12z ICON is headed.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#47
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:20 AM

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12z ICON looks good for many

1581638400-5nLXv4Qm2Dw.png


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#48
Niko

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:22 AM

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I like the direction the 12z ICON is headed.

Not a bad look, that's for sure.....


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#49
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:22 AM

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Will need the snow cover but strongest cold of the year for me

icon_T2m_us_33.png


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#50
bud2380

Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:39 AM

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ICON qpf

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_25.png


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Season Snowfall 23.2"