It's starting to look like the models may be converging on a developing winter storm later this week. A complex situation is evolving where we have 2 pieces of energy potentially phasing somewhere across the MW and wrapping up into a potent storm system with arctic air in toe.
So, we have the Euro, which has been steadfast in ejecting a closed off ULL from the desert SW into the S Plains/MW while a northern piece drives south into the Upper MW/Plains. Confidence in this particular is solution is growing as we have the GFS and other models starting to latch onto this idea.
I can't help but think back to earlier this week when we had a similar storm track up from the deep south Gulf states and up into the App's. It's been one of the dominant storm tracks since way back in October where we have lacked any cold air to tap. Is it finally going to change this go-around??? The 00z GEFS animation below looks like a golden track for those in the MW/Lower Lakes region.
This map off the 00z EPS is a classic illustration of a direct arctic air connection from the North Pole into the CONUS....it's nice to see for a moment the block over the Pole.
Once the system departs, there will be an impressive shot of arctic air....possibly the seasons coldest which will likely ignite the GL's. Some of the models have a significant backside LES potential for those in MI. Lot's of moving parts with this storm and an interesting system to track.