March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

I can say dry!

 

Yes... another ridiculously dry March here so far as well. That might change pretty significantly during the last week of the month. But it will most definitely be a drier than normal month.

 

April will be very wet... count on it.

April was dry here too last year. Might be due for a wet one this year.

[Jesse]

Good news. The 12Z GFS scaled precip WAYYYYY back for the rest of the month.

 

Significantly less mountain snow too. Probably closer to how things will turn out in reality.

[Jesse]

I have been literally counting down the days until this dry and boring weather ends. Just one more to go now, although sadly the GFS has really gutted what looked like a fun and active pattern to close the month, the past few runs,

[snow_wizard]

Good news. The 12Z GFS scaled precip WAYYYYY back for the rest of the month.

 

Significantly less mountain snow too. Probably closer to how things will turn out in reality.

 

No doubt the trough has been trending more cold and less wet as the time frame narrows.  Nice looking pattern overall if you like below normal temps.

[Jesse]

No doubt the trough has been trending more cold and less wet as the time frame narrows.  Nice looking pattern overall if you like below normal temps.

 

I do. But I also like a green landscape and trees that aren't dying.

[snow_wizard]

33 here too. The streak is broken. 

 

I actually ended up colder than both you and Mossman yesterday.  This spot is pretty decent for cold low temps much of the time.

[snow_wizard]

I do. But I also like a green landscape and trees that aren't dying.

 

True.  It's been a lot wetter up here so my perspective is a bit different.

[TacomaWaWx]

First morning in the 40s here in awhile this morning. March may just slightly end up being my coolest month of the entire cold season which is pretty hard to pull off.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve only had 4 freezes here but lots of mornings in the low to mid 30s this month. Lots of frosty mornings. Haven’t had much rain...only 1.09” and no rain the past 8 days.

[TT-SEA]

True.  It's been a lot wetter up here so my perspective is a bit different.

 

 

Different perspectives based on where its been anomalously wet and where its been anomalously dry... interesting concept. 

[snow_wizard]

We have a good cluster of solidly cold ensemble members around March 29 with several below -6.  Could be in response to the coming PV breakup.  That event will set the stage for a possible significant cold shot.  Even before that time we have a sustained period of sub -4 850s showing up on the mean.

[Jesse]

We have a good cluster of solidly cold ensemble members around March 29 with several below -6.  Could be in response to the coming PV breakup.  That event will set the stage for a possible significant cold shot.  Even before that time we have a sustained period of sub -4 850s showing up on the mean.

 

Looks like a ton of spread in early April. Could be a big ridge or a fairly cold trough. To me that would indicate the potential for an amplified pattern, the models just can figure out whether to put the ridge over us or offshore.

[snow_wizard]

First morning in the 40s here in awhile this morning. March may just slightly end up being my coolest month of the entire cold season which is pretty hard to pull off.

 

I managed to drop to 35 here before the clouds arrived.  Really been an amazing run of cold low temps here with 11 lows of 32 or lower and a number in the 27 to 30 range.  With next week slated to be cold this will be a solidly chilly month.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a ton of spread in early April. Could be a big ridge or a fairly cold trough. To me that would indicate the potential for an amplified pattern, the models just can figure out whether to put the ridge over us or offshore.

 

I'm all in for a 1949 or 1951 type spring.  Years like that had frost deep into the spring with sub 40 lows common in May and June.  I have yet to see a spring like that.

[Jesse]

It does seem like the spring green up got off to an early start, thanks in part to a mild mid-winter, but has since slowed down a lot the last 7-10 days due to the generally cool and dry weather. Any rain we manage to get next week will help things along even if it’s cold rain.

[TT-SEA]

It does seem like the spring green up got off to an early start, thanks in part to a mild mid-winter, but has since slowed down a lot the last 7-10 days due to the generally cool and dry weather. Any rain we manage to get next week will help things along even if it’s cold rain.

 

 

I noticed the same thing... and was thinking that rain will advance things more quickly regardless of the temperature.

[MossMan]

Today is cloudier than I was expecting. Anyway, just like flipping a switch...Our month long -PNA will be making the jump at the first of the month.

[snow_wizard]

I sure wasn't expecting today to be this cloudy and chilly.  Only 43 at 11:30.

[TT-SEA]

I sure wasn't expecting today to be this cloudy and chilly.  Only 43 at 11:30.

 

 

Sunny and nice here... and sunny from the start.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Anyone else noticing the compete lack of contrails today?

[Omegaraptor]

ECMWF is very wet.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Man it really clouded up today. That was kind of a pleasant surprise. Still holding at just 48 here. Could be a good ten degrees cooler than yesterday.

[Timmy Supercell]

Popcorn looking clouds today. Skies have more of a Spring-like vibe now.

 

SPC actually has a thunder boundary going just north of the OR/CA border, but weak chances I think.

[Jesse]

EPS agreed with the operational Euro in setting up a coolish zonal flow pattern days 7-10.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear and 51 here after a low of 35. This shot is looking Northwest. 

 

[TT-SEA]

54 and mostly sunny here... in the yard working all day.

[ShawniganLake]

Not a cloud in the sky here in Victoria at work. Looks like it’s pushing 60 at home.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the euro would put down a bit of snow here around day 8-9.

[Omegaraptor]

New ENSO models are out:

 

[TT-SEA]

New ENSO models are out:

 

Remember last fall when some people on here said we certainly heading towards a Nina.

 

[Deweydog]

Need to flatten that curve.

[Jesse]

I honestly think the only thing that will save us from the virus at this point is avoiding a La Niña.

 

I suggest the coast guard lock down the ENSO regions to prevent any further infiltration of not so warm water.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Remember last fall when some people on here said we certainly heading towards a Nina.

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

Tropics update: We are seeing widespread enhanced trade winds around the equatorial belt to take place over the next couple weeks. Strong trade winds will result in enhanced downwelling in the western Pacific & upwelling in the eastern Pacific. #ENSO

 

Paul Roundy

@PaulRoundy1

·

Mar 17

Replying to

@MJVentrice

The ocean T cross section continues to show a warm downwelling wave superimposed on an anomalously shallow thermocline (cold anomaly under warm anomaly). Suggests when the Kelvin wave exits (w/out new big event), La Niña conditions can begin and grow.

[High Desert Mat?]

Chemtrails were out in full force today.

[Jesse]

Nice day.

 

UGLY 18z run.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day.

 

UGLY 18z run.

 

Some variety would nice... some sunny, dry days and rainy days mixed in with alternating ridges and troughs.

 

Not sure why the only "good" runs are the ones that show 2 week straight of rain.

[El_Nina]

Some variety would nice... some sunny, dry days and rainy days mixed in with alternating ridges and troughs.

 

Not sure why the only "good" runs are the ones that show 2 week straight of rain.

We could really use it.

[ShawniganLake]

Remember last fall when some people on here said we certainly heading towards a Nina.

 

I don’t remember that. I thought we were heading for a nino.

[TT-SEA]

We could really use it.

 

 

Sure... don't need 2 weeks straight though.   That does need to be the only criteria to call it a "good" run.

 

Then you will be right back to complaining when 2 weeks of sun follows the 2 weeks of rain.   It would be nice if nature could mix it up on a shorter time scale.   But that is not how it works most of the time.