Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Friday the 13th Winter Storm???

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 06:32 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Don't be fooled by the early warmth this month, "The Ides of March" are showing signs of the volatility this month can showcase, esp over the Great Plains.  The models are latching onto a late season snowfall across the Plains and into parts of the MW.

 

Let's discuss...

 

00z GEFS members showing some big hits across NE/S IA...

 

GEFSCGP_prec_snens_096.png

 

 

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_102.png


  • gabel23, jaster220, CentralNebWeather and 1 other like this

#2
snowstorm83

Posted 11 March 2020 - 07:57 AM

snowstorm83

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 703 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Looks like the NAM keeps just about everything to the south and west of OMA/LNK. GFS not great either. I wouldn't jump on the Euro train since it's been garbage this year. 


  • Bryan1117 and IowaWX82 like this

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 11.3"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#3
IowaWX82

Posted 11 March 2020 - 08:27 AM

IowaWX82

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 25 posts

Looks like the NAM keeps just about everything to the south and west of OMA/LNK. GFS not great either. I wouldn't jump on the Euro train since it's been garbage this year.


The best model is the one that shows the most cold and snow. That is the only way “history” can be made 😂

#4
FarmerRick

Posted 11 March 2020 - 08:50 AM

FarmerRick

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 247 posts
  • LocationWest Central Omaha

Looks like the NAM keeps just about everything to the south and west of OMA/LNK. GFS not great either. I wouldn't jump on the Euro train since it's been garbage this year. 

 

 

ALL of the models have been garbage even 3 days out this winter.


  • jaster220, Bryan1117 and snowstorm83 like this

#5
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 08:50 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The best model is the one that shows the most cold and snow. That is the only way “history” can be made 😂


That’s such an immature and uneducated statement. Following ensemble trends are the way to go.
  • Stormhunter87 likes this

#6
Stormhunter87

Posted 11 March 2020 - 08:53 AM

Stormhunter87

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1270 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE
Hmm Nam riding pretty far south. It has been staying that way for the past 24 hours. Is this storm on shore yet?

#7
bud2380

Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:02 AM

bud2380

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3205 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

hard to believe that in mid March a snow storm may miss me to the south.  Northern MO looking like the place to be east of Nebraska.  Most of Nebraska looks good per the Ukie.  

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png


  • jaster220 likes this

Season Snowfall 23.2"


#8
bud2380

Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:04 AM

bud2380

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3205 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GEFS ensemble members further north than the Op model.  

 

Attached File  Capture5.PNG   192.04KB   0 downloads


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#9
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:05 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Hmm Nam riding pretty far south. It has been staying that way for the past 24 hours. Is this storm on shore yet?


By Friday it will be spinning right over the top of me in AZ. We’ll have some more shifts forthcoming I’d imagine. The system is still way offshore and SW of the Baja. I can tell you, the SubTropical connection is deep bc the rains have been torrential here all morning long.
  • jaster220 likes this

#10
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:28 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GEFS...looking more solid...

 

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_102.png

 

 

GEFSCGP_prec_snens_090.png


  • jaster220 and Bryan1117 like this

#11
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:33 AM

OmahaSnowFan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 524 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

The ensembles mean has been too high multiple times too. I GUARANTEE you we're not getting 6-12" of snow like all those members are showing. :rolleyes:

I'm calling for 1-2" of slush that will melt during the day on Saturday.



#12
gimmesnow

Posted 11 March 2020 - 10:32 AM

gimmesnow

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 346 posts
  • LocationSE Wisconsin

It's definitely not going to be that much considering they are using a 10:1 ratio in mid-march.



#13
bud2380

Posted 11 March 2020 - 11:04 AM

bud2380

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3205 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Euro continues to shift further south

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#14
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 11:41 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z Euro...

 

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   316.75KB   1 downloads


#15
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 11:43 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z EPS snow mean...

 

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   243.79KB   0 downloads


#16
jaster220

Posted 11 March 2020 - 12:09 PM

jaster220

    Pure Michigan!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8845 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

That’s such an immature and uneducated statement. Following ensemble trends are the way to go.

 

Only if it was intended as a serious post. 100% certain it was more like a sarcastic "troll" kind of post. Some Peeps like this dude get their kicks in odd ways.  :rolleyes:


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#17
IowaWX82

Posted 11 March 2020 - 12:09 PM

IowaWX82

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 25 posts

That’s such an immature and uneducated statement. Following ensemble trends are the way to go.


And exactly how has that worked out for you this winter, big guy?
  • FarmerRick likes this

#18
gabel23

Posted 11 March 2020 - 12:27 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1654 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Storm watches put out by North Platte. I guess I'll get pulled into one more storm this year. State boys basketball tournament starts tomorrow and the announcement was made that no one can attend except for family. I haven't missed a tournament game in years and was worried about possibly not making it home with the snow coming; I guess that won't be a worry of mine anymore! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...Winter Storm Watch...

NEZ022>026-035>038-056>059-121200-
/O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0001.200313T2100Z-200315T0000Z/
Garden-Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-Custer-
Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Oshkosh, Lewellen, Hyannis, Mullen,
Thedford, Halsey, Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Arthur, Tryon,
Ringgold, Stapleton, Broken Bow, Chappell, Big Springs, Ogallala,
Paxton, Grant, and North Platte
306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 /206 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches
or more possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, panhandle,
southwest and west central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.



#19
Tom

Posted 11 March 2020 - 12:32 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

And exactly how has that worked out for you this winter, big guy?


My local back home had to fight warm ground temps, marginal temps and precip type. A lot of others on here did fairly well following ensembles, not so much individual op runs.
  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#20
MIKEKC

Posted 11 March 2020 - 01:00 PM

MIKEKC

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 189 posts
Tom,

I know what you mean, marginal temps and warm grounds cost KC about 15 inches of accumulation. Not to mention when it was way warm, we had big rain storms.

Your call for an active storm track for the winter was perfect, dang temps didn’t work out. What could have been...
  • Tom, jaster220 and Clinton like this

#21
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 11 March 2020 - 04:34 PM

OmahaSnowFan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 524 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

Looks like my call of 1-2" of slush was pretty spot on...

 

https://www.weather..../SitReport1.pdf


  • Sparky likes this

#22
snowstorm83

Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:54 PM

snowstorm83

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 703 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

GFS already has the lowest temp at 35 (LOL) during the heart of the storm. Yeah, I trust the models about as much as I trust a sketchy fart. 


  • Sparky and OmahaSnowFan like this

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 11.3"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#23
Tom

Posted 12 March 2020 - 03:46 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

00z Euro still showing a widespread snowstorm for NE....

 

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   327.68KB   0 downloads


#24
Tom

Posted 12 March 2020 - 04:02 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

0z GEFS very similar to the EPS mean across NE...looking good for Gabel/Clint/CentralNeb...this system has a lot of moisture to play with out of the PAC.  I can confirm that the downpours here in AZ yesterday were almost tropical in nature.  Crazy to see in the desert.

 

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_084.png

 

GEFSCGP_prec_snens_084.png


  • gabel23, CentralNebWeather, Sparky and 1 other like this

#25
FarmerRick

Posted 12 March 2020 - 04:18 AM

FarmerRick

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 247 posts
  • LocationWest Central Omaha

NAM is quite juicy... (10:1)

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png


  • jaster220, Clinton and Stormhunter87 like this

#26
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2020 - 04:28 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Winter Storm Watches for parts of the area.  5-8" in spots.

 

From NWS Hastings:

 

https://www.weather..../SitReport1.pdf


  • gabel23, Clinton and Stormhunter87 like this

#27
Stormhunter87

Posted 12 March 2020 - 06:29 AM

Stormhunter87

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1270 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE
Local Mets going 1-2, OAX thinking the same. Hopefully that's a little low.

#28
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2020 - 06:38 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

12Z NAM is a nice hit for my area.

Attached File  12Z NAM 1.png   118.09KB   0 downloads

 

 


  • Tom, Hawkeye, jaster220 and 1 other like this

#29
mlgamer

Posted 12 March 2020 - 07:20 AM

mlgamer

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 181 posts
  • LocationTopeka, KS

I gotta laugh...the models always have the same look for me no matter what month it is.  Middle of January, middle of March doesn't matter. Always on the rain/snow line before the snow trends away. I hope some of you guys score a late season hit, but I get tired of the SSDD. Bring on spring and summer already...sheesh.


  • jaster220 and NH4NU like this

19-20 snowfalls >= 3":  Dec 15/16: 4.5"      Season total: 11.7" (70% of normal 16.8" as of 3/14)


#30
jaster220

Posted 12 March 2020 - 08:29 AM

jaster220

    Pure Michigan!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8845 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Looks like my call of 1-2" of slush was pretty spot on...

 

https://www.weather..../SitReport1.pdf

 

With so many "mushy" events during this warm winter, it brings the point to mind that the map of "Total snow accumulation" might be more aptly named "Total snow fall". Have had numerous systems the past two years when 6" fell, but didn't accumulate anything close to that. Even on elevated surfaces in a couple instances (sad fact, I know). 


  • OmahaSnowFan likes this

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#31
snowstorm83

Posted 12 March 2020 - 09:49 AM

snowstorm83

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 703 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

OAX has the snow hitting a brick wall between York and Lincoln. Looks silly, but probably accurate. 


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 11.3"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#32
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2020 - 10:45 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Winter storm warnings and advisories are now being hoisted for the area.  Looks like a general 3-8" of snow for much of the region.  We'll see what temperatures and melting does to these totals.  Looks like much will fall at night which should limit some of the melting.


  • jaster220 likes this

#33
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 12 March 2020 - 11:01 AM

OmahaSnowFan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 524 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

The GFS has been pretty consistently showing that scenario

 

OAX has the snow hitting a brick wall between York and Lincoln. Looks silly, but probably accurate. 


  • Bryan1117 and snowstorm83 like this

#34
BrianJK

Posted 12 March 2020 - 11:19 AM

BrianJK

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 568 posts
  • LocationElmhurst, IL / Eagle River, WI

With so many "mushy" events during this warm winter, it brings the point to mind that the map of "Total snow accumulation" might be more aptly named "Total snow fall". Have had numerous systems the past two years when 6" fell, but didn't accumulate anything close to that. Even on elevated surfaces in a couple instances (sad fact, I know).


Bingo! That’s been the story around here all “winter”. Regardless of what our official seasonal snowfall stat is this year, I can confirm only about half (if that) accumulated and only needing to shovel 2x.
  • jaster220 likes this

#35
Tom

Posted 13 March 2020 - 03:53 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Both 00z GEFS/EPS targeting C NE near the epicenter of the heaviest snows???

 

00z GEFS...8-10" mean near S/C NE???

 

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_048.png

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   247.89KB   0 downloads

  • jaster220 and CentralNebWeather like this

#36
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 March 2020 - 06:24 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Both 00z GEFS/EPS targeting C NE near the epicenter of the heaviest snows???

00z GEFS...8-10" mean near S/C NE???

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_048.png


We’ll have to see how much melting occurs. Since it will be happening overnight it may help totals some. I will be home to enjoy it.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#37
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 March 2020 - 11:54 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Heavy snow started here an hour ago.  32 degrees and the ground is already covered.  Local apps say 1-3" today, 3-5" tonight, 1" tomorrow morning.  All right.


  • Tom, Hawkeye, jaster220 and 1 other like this

#38
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 March 2020 - 12:04 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

I was just upped to a Winter Storm Warning.

 

Here is the local camera.

 

https://nebraska.tv/...etwork/holdrege


  • jaster220 and Bryan1117 like this

#39
bud2380

Posted 13 March 2020 - 12:05 PM

bud2380

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3205 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

18z NAM coming in much further north in Iowa

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png


  • Hawkeye likes this

Season Snowfall 23.2"


#40
bud2380

Posted 13 March 2020 - 12:08 PM

bud2380

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3205 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

sn10_acc.us_mw.png


  • Hawkeye and Bryan1117 like this

Season Snowfall 23.2"


#41
gabel23

Posted 13 March 2020 - 03:19 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1654 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Good ole dry air winning out so far in my area. @centralneb. has some real good snow going on in his area. Good returns are showing up so hopefully the column gets saturated earlier than later.......


  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#42
snowstorm83

Posted 13 March 2020 - 03:46 PM

snowstorm83

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 703 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Snow has started in Lincoln

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 11.3"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#43
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 March 2020 - 04:14 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Good ole dry air winning out so far in my area. @centralneb. has some real good snow going on in his area. Good returns are showing up so hopefully the column gets saturated earlier than later.......


Verified reports of 4” and still snowing hard. It is now accumulating on streets and highways. Local Sheriff tweeted that roads are becoming treacherous. With the sun setting it will only get worse. Visibility has been as low as an 1/8th of a mile at times.
  • Hawkeye, gabel23 and jaster220 like this

#44
gabel23

Posted 13 March 2020 - 04:23 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1654 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE
Flurries are starting to sneak in… It’s crazy I can totally see the snow above us in the sky but it’s not saturated enough to get to the ground. Should be just a matter of time before we start to see some action.

#45
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 March 2020 - 06:06 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3609 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
Snow let up for a bit now increasing again. Streets are ice and slush covered. Would think the highways aren’t great with temp around 30.

#46
gabel23

Posted 13 March 2020 - 07:33 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1654 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Hastings upped my totals which is kind of a surprise. Radar doesn't look that impressive and snow rates are the same. With that being said ground is covered in snow so we shall see. 

Attached Files


  • Hawkeye likes this

#47
snowstorm83

Posted 13 March 2020 - 08:53 PM

snowstorm83

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 703 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Steady light snow for the past several hours but unfortunately it’s above freezing. There’s been an outrageous amount of precipitation this winter at 33-35 degrees.
  • jaster220 likes this

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 11.3"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#48
Stormhunter87

Posted 13 March 2020 - 09:28 PM

Stormhunter87

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1270 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE
Finally some fat flakes with the rain. Hopefully.we get lucky.

#49
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 13 March 2020 - 11:36 PM

OmahaSnowFan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 524 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE
Fatties coming down and the grass is already white here.

#50
Tom

Posted 14 March 2020 - 05:11 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 20737 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I was just upped to a Winter Storm Warning.

Here is the local camera.

https://nebraska.tv/...etwork/holdrege


Looks like a winter scene this morning out by you. How much did you score?