TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah. Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East. A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Eventually I suspect a modest dry/coolish-continental background state takes over around/after the solstice..but not an overwhelming one. Moisture advection with respect to climo declines with time, and is much reduced over the West when compared to 2019. Hot/dry theme in the SW and South-Central US (and perhaps the Intermountain West as well) with a tight thermal gradient over West-Central Canada and the PNW region, possibly a -NAO/Aleutian Ridge tandem as well. But in a bizarre way, this might be a low pass signal that is only “weak” because it’s merely conveying the general MJO-driven instability, if it continues beyond the Asian monsoonal inception. I suppose the results could be interpreted a few different ways. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East. A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here. It can be cool everywhere, in theory. See the summers of the 1960s. Wavelengths work differently during the warm season, and they’ll be shortening significantly over the next month (though at the moment they’re very winter like, possibly owing to the powerful vortex that is only now breaking down). In the summer, a west-coast ridge often correlates to a plains/midwest trough and an east-coast ridge and/or SW flow/high humidity here. Our cool/dry summer patterns have historically featured a broad/flat ridge centered over NM/TX with a low over Newfoundland/Ontario. A trough over the Plains/Midwest just pumps in Gulf Moisture like a firehose. A jackpot would be something like the summer of 1964, which was chilly everywhere and had low humidity in most places. I’d love to experience the weather from that decade again..-NAO/-PNA almost every winter, retracting Hadley Cells, a circulo-convective regime that likely produced a systemic radiative deficit/cooling, irrespective of current analyses, etc. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Phil is bored today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it. 05/04/2017 was a nice little outbreak, well not little at all actually NWS Medford issued their 2nd ever Tornado Warning that day for a storm near Crater Lake. The first one they put out was wayy back in Aug 2005. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Some mixed thoughts on tomorrow's action. Surface temp for the time of year can definitely be on the warmer side. Probably not gonna have the kinds of storms we had in May 2013 in this area. Still I should get my cameras charged up if there happens to be a little surprise. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Can we pls pin this, Fred? 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 That’s some shitbox ATF thinking right there. Drop and give me 50.Well that’s pretty much all he said. Which is fine by me. I’m down with some ridges as long as we get some cooler and wetter periods in between. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Nice... 7 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Always been a fan of Tiger. His personal issues in the late 2000s still make me laugh and yet I genuinely feel bad for the guy for going through it. Him winning the Masters last year was one of my favorite sports moments ever.Fan of him too, best golfer of all time. You could say his libido has helped him on the field but got him in trouble off of it . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Even though it doesn’t do it in quite the same manner as the operational, the 12z EPS wants to break the ridge down by days 9-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.Looking forward to this!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Looking forward to this!!! Same here, could be pretty interesting. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Up to 63 now...high clouds have been slowly increasing. Looking forward to what should be the most interesting weather we’ve had in some time. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 Storm for tomorrow looks convective on satellite. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 1, 2020 Report Share Posted May 1, 2020 The 18z HRDPS shows a nice squall line tomorrow afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Wow, high temps actually underachieved by a couple degrees today. Good note to start the month on! 62/37 here today. Sunny morning turning mostly cloudy by early afternoon with some light rain showers at times. Have picked up .02” so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Port orchard area pretty much always gets strong thunderstorms in these set ups. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 63/39 today...no rain here yet. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Quarantine brain and a few sleep poor nights due to work has made today feel more like April 31st than May 1st.I thought it was March 62nd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Storm for tomorrow looks convective on satellite. Look south of Bothell closer to Tacoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Look south of Bothell closer to Tacoma I am looking at the system still well offshore that will be bring the chance for thunderstorms tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 I am looking at the system still well offshore that will be bring the chance for thunderstorms tomorrow.Something big out there 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Nice... I like the chances of thunderstorms west of the Cascades 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 The 18z HRDPS shows a nice squall line tomorrow afternoon. Impressive would see strong gusts with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Something big out thereAre you sure it’s not december? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 00z NAM looking a little more favorable for something to pop late morning, shows some pretty strong convection along the front. Good dynamics with the unusually strong low, would be great if we had a little more warm air and surface based instability to work with ahead of it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Quarantine brain and a few sleep poor nights due to work has made today feel more like April 31st than May 1st.Good day tomorrow to lay in bed and enjoy the soaking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 00z NAM looking a little more favorable for something to pop late morning, shows some pretty strong convection along the front. Good dynamics with the unusually strong low, would be great if we had a little more warm air and surface based instability to work with ahead of it. 00znam050220.png Hope for some clearing in the AM...could be interesting. First week of May looks more interesting than 4 out of the last 5 years. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Looks like a Sou'wester! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Hope I can break my not seeing a lightning bolt streak that stretches all the way back to...December. Yup. Prior to that it was August, 2006. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 It's pouring here....none of the models even advertised showers at this time. Maybe I'm just trying to put meaning where there isn't any but I feel that the atmosphere is certainly energized in advance of the front tomorrow...could see some fun gusty winds and strong downpours. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 It's pouring here....none of the models even advertised showers at this time. Maybe I'm just trying to put meaning where there isn't any but I feel that the atmosphere is certainly energized in advance of the front tomorrow...could see some fun gusty winds and strong downpours.We call that “crapvection” out here. Overturns and stabilizes the atmosphere before the best forcing arrives. Though I guess that comparison only applies in a highly CAPE dependent situation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 00z NAM looking a little more favorable for something to pop late morning, shows some pretty strong convection along the front. Good dynamics with the unusually strong low, would be great if we had a little more warm air and surface based instability to work with ahead of it. 00znam050220.png That image reminds me of the March 2011 squall line. That one did stretch all the way down to Eureka, CA and it all formed over the waters in the late AM. It held together for hours and triggered marine warnings. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2020 Report Share Posted May 2, 2020 Here comes the upwelling wave: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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