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May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW


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That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.

 

Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here.   ;)

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Eventually I suspect a modest dry/coolish-continental background state takes over around/after the solstice..but not an overwhelming one. Moisture advection with respect to climo declines with time, and is much reduced over the West when compared to 2019. Hot/dry theme in the SW and South-Central US (and perhaps the Intermountain West as well) with a tight thermal gradient over West-Central Canada and the PNW region, possibly a -NAO/Aleutian Ridge tandem as well. But in a bizarre way, this might be a low pass signal that is only “weak” because it’s merely conveying the general MJO-driven instability, if it continues beyond the Asian monsoonal inception. I suppose the results could be interpreted a few different ways.

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Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here. ;)

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

It can be cool everywhere, in theory. See the summers of the 1960s. Wavelengths work differently during the warm season, and they’ll be shortening significantly over the next month (though at the moment they’re very winter like, possibly owing to the powerful vortex that is only now breaking down).

 

In the summer, a west-coast ridge often correlates to a plains/midwest trough and an east-coast ridge and/or SW flow/high humidity here. Our cool/dry summer patterns have historically featured a broad/flat ridge centered over NM/TX with a low over Newfoundland/Ontario. A trough over the Plains/Midwest just pumps in Gulf Moisture like a firehose.

 

A jackpot would be something like the summer of 1964, which was chilly everywhere and had low humidity in most places. I’d love to experience the weather from that decade again..-NAO/-PNA almost every winter, retracting Hadley Cells, a circulo-convective regime that likely produced a systemic radiative deficit/cooling, irrespective of current analyses, etc.

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Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

 

05/04/2017 was a nice little outbreak, well not little at all actually :P 

 

NWS Medford issued their 2nd ever Tornado Warning that day for a storm near Crater Lake. The first one they put out was wayy back in Aug 2005.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Some mixed thoughts on tomorrow's action. Surface temp for the time of year can definitely be on the warmer side. Probably not gonna have the kinds of storms we had in May 2013 in this area. Still I should get my cameras charged up if there happens to be a little surprise.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Can we pls pin this, Fred?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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That’s some shitbox ATF thinking right there. Drop and give me 50.

Well that’s pretty much all he said. ;)

 

Which is fine by me. I’m down with some ridges as long as we get some cooler and wetter periods in between.

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Nice... 

 

pHR9mQI.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Always been a fan of Tiger. His personal issues in the late 2000s still make me laugh and yet I genuinely feel bad for the guy for going through it. Him winning the Masters last year was one of my favorite sports moments ever.

Fan of him too, best golfer of all time. You could say his libido has helped him on the field but got him in trouble off of it .

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Up to 63 now...high clouds have been slowly increasing. Looking forward to what should be the most interesting weather we’ve had in some time.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Wow, high temps actually underachieved by a couple degrees today. Good note to start the month on!

 

62/37 here today. Sunny morning turning mostly cloudy by early afternoon with some light rain showers at times. Have picked up .02” so far.

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00z NAM looking a little more favorable for something to pop late morning, shows some pretty strong convection along the front. Good dynamics with the unusually strong low, would be great if we had a little more warm air and surface based instability to work with ahead of it.

 

00znam050220.png

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00z NAM looking a little more favorable for something to pop late morning, shows some pretty strong convection along the front. Good dynamics with the unusually strong low, would be great if we had a little more warm air and surface based instability to work with ahead of it.

 

attachicon.gif00znam050220.png

Hope for some clearing in the AM...could be interesting. First week of May looks more interesting than 4 out of the last 5 years.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Hope I can break my not seeing a lightning bolt streak that stretches all the way back to...December.

 

Yup.

 

Prior to that it was August, 2006.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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It's pouring here....none of the models even advertised showers at this time. Maybe I'm just trying to put meaning where there isn't any but I feel that the atmosphere is certainly energized in advance of the front tomorrow...could see some fun gusty winds and strong downpours.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It's pouring here....none of the models even advertised showers at this time. Maybe I'm just trying to put meaning where there isn't any but I feel that the atmosphere is certainly energized in advance of the front tomorrow...could see some fun gusty winds and strong downpours.

We call that “crapvection” out here. Overturns and stabilizes the atmosphere before the best forcing arrives.

 

Though I guess that comparison only applies in a highly CAPE dependent situation.

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00z NAM looking a little more favorable for something to pop late morning, shows some pretty strong convection along the front. Good dynamics with the unusually strong low, would be great if we had a little more warm air and surface based instability to work with ahead of it.

 

attachicon.gif00znam050220.png

 

That image reminds me of the March 2011 squall line. That one did stretch all the way down to Eureka, CA and it all formed over the waters in the late AM. It held together for hours and triggered marine warnings.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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