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May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

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#2801
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:17 PM

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SEA going from 100 to 103 was partly due to 100 being low hanging fruit for them and partly due to the enhanced UHI/land use changes seen at that location.

 

The Portland area has topped 102 in June or very early July as far back as the early 1940s, so I'd say that's more due to fall.

 

Nah.

 

Sand Point actually hit 105 that day. Suburban Monroe hit 102. Paine Field hit 100. That airmass was just legit. 


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#2802
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:19 PM

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The bolded is demonstrably false. There’s no correlation between ENSO and US temperatures. The warming of the tropical stratosphere relative to the polar stratosphere thanks to the SO^2 spike strengthened the thermal winds/developed a super PV which coupled to the troposphere during winter 1991/92.

And by your logic/timeline, if it “began in 1992”, then the effects of the ongoing stratospheric temperature spike would not manifest until next winter. Can’t have it both ways.

I don’t think you understand the multi-dimensional nature of these processes. Both the it’s no coincidence that the winters during each of the last three stratospheric temperature spikes were ALL warm across the CONUS (1982/83, 1991/92, and 2019/20). There are multiple reasons for that. And it has nothing to do with global temperature anomalies.

 

 

Might want to tell NOAA that.



#2803
TacomaWaWx

Posted Today, 08:22 PM

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It’s warm still...70 degrees at 9:30.
Warm Season Stats (Since 4/1) Rainfall-3.89”(80+)days-2 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 May rainfall-1.86”

#2804
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:22 PM

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Nah.

 

Sand Point actually hit 105 that day. Suburban Monroe hit 102. Paine Field hit 100. That airmass was just legit. 

 

Sand Point is actually further away from the water and has a much shorter period of record.

 

Of course the air mass was legit. But 100 was low hanging fruit for SEA...especially modern day SEA.


Low. Solar.


#2805
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:25 PM

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Fact is, you were so caught up in global anomalies and the warm winter of 2019-20, you failed to notice the past couple years weren't actually all that warm for the U.S. Certainly not "frying".

 

2018 was 1.5 degrees above the long term average. Good enough for the 14th warmest back to 1895.

 

2019 was 0.65 degrees above the long term average. Only 34th warmest!

 

Major progress over 2017, which is the 3rd warmest year. 2016, which is the 2nd warmest year. And 2015, which is the 4th warmest year.

 

The warmest? Way back in 2012! 

 

Of course January-April 2020 was the 10th warmest on record, so we seem to be getting back on track after our frigid year last year!



#2806
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:28 PM

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Sand Point is actually further away from the water and has a much shorter period of record.

 

Of course the air mass was legit. But 100 was low hanging fruit for SEA...especially modern day SEA.

 

I agree it was low hanging fruit, but you wouldn't be diminishing the historic nature of such an event if it were something on the cold side.

 

Simply a fact that the 2009 heat wave is the greatest on record for the Puget Sound. Hardly something that was exclusive to SEA.


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#2807
Deweydog

Posted Today, 08:28 PM

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Seems to me it’s actually cooling off out here right now... so......
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#2808
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:31 PM

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Also worth noting that SEA hasn't even topped 96 since that 2009 event. So if land use changes alone were making things so much worse there, you'd think they'd be able to at least get close to that benchmark in some of these hot recent summers.

 

They are probably dew now.


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#2809
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 08:31 PM

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We had a few drops of rain fall here around mid morning. Then it quickly cleared out and the temp topped out at 81F this afternoon

#2810
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 08:36 PM

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SEA going from 100 to 103 was partly due to 100 being low hanging fruit for them and partly due to the enhanced UHI/land use changes seen at that location.

The Portland area has topped 102 in June or very early July as far back as the early 1940s, so I'd say that's more due to fall.

They both will fall soon. With clear skies and no smoke, Portland can reach 110.

#2811
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 08:41 PM

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Nah.

Sand Point actually hit 105 that day. Suburban Monroe hit 102. Paine Field hit 100. That airmass was just legit.

It was my first summer in Portland. Summers are getting hotter here.

#2812
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 08:45 PM

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Still 73F in downtown Springfield. Warm night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

24


#2813
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 08:45 PM

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I agree it was low hanging fruit, but you wouldn't be diminishing the historic nature of such an event if it were something on the cold side.

Simply a fact that the 2009 heat wave is the greatest on record for the Puget Sound. Hardly something that was exclusive to SEA.

It was also great in Portland. Where would you rank it for here?

#2814
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:49 PM

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Also worth noting that SEA hasn't even topped 96 since that 2009 event. So if land use changes alone were making things so much worse there, you'd think they'd be able to at least get close to that benchmark in some of these hot recent summers.

 

They are probably dew now.

 

There have been hot summers, but not not a lot of extreme individual events.


Low. Solar.


#2815
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:50 PM

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I agree it was low hanging fruit

 

Cool (hot).


Low. Solar.


#2816
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:51 PM

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It was also great in Portland. Where would you rank it for here?

 

Probably would say numero 2 for our area. August 1981 was definitely a smidge hotter.


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#2817
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:51 PM

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Also worth noting that SEA hasn't even topped 96 since that 2009 event. So if land use changes alone were making things so much worse there, you'd think they'd be able to at least get close to that benchmark in some of these hot recent summers.

 

They are probably dew now.

 

"Worse" is subjective, of course. But there's been plenty of evidence shared on here about how warm season anomalies have changed there since 2005. It's a real thing.

 

OLM is a national treasure.


Low. Solar.


#2818
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:53 PM

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They both will fall soon. With clear skies and no smoke, Portland can reach 110.

 

Maybe. I'd shoot for 108 first.  :P


Low. Solar.


#2819
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 08:55 PM

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There have been hot summers, but not not a lot of extreme individual events.

 

Coming soon to a PNW airport near you!

 

Also worth noting that a lot of our mega heat wave years were actually followed by winters with decent arctic airmasses (2009, 2006, 1998, 1988, 1981, 1961, 1956, 1942, 1941). We definitely want them.


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#2820
Phil

Posted Today, 08:57 PM

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Might want to tell NOAA that.


To be clear, we’re talking about the national temperature anomaly, not the distribution of regional anomalies within the country.

Figured you’d pick that up.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#2821
Phil

Posted Today, 09:00 PM

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Check out Portland, Maine. The majority of top-tier 850mb airmasses are very recent.

Nov, Dec, Jan.

2T0rPYQ.jpg
DdP2boU.jpg
W0OLq4H.jpg
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#2822
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 09:02 PM

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Maybe. I'd shoot for 108 first. :P

Sounds fair enough

#2823
GHweatherChris

Posted Today, 09:03 PM

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Good lord...

#2824
Phil

Posted Today, 09:07 PM

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Where is the reanalysis and ranking of every 500mb airmass for everyone in the country? We'd all love to see it!

And also

http://mp1.met.psu.e...1983/us1224.php

Pretty sure that nothing has sniffed that in this century. LOOK AT THAT MAP!


Right here: https://www.spc.noaa.../soundingclimo/

Though 2020 data hasn’t been added yet.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#2825
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:12 PM

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Coming soon to a PNW airport near you!

 

Also worth noting that a lot of our mega heat wave years were actually followed by winters with decent arctic airmasses (2009, 2006, 1998, 1988, 1981, 1961, 1956, 1942, 1941). We definitely want them.

 

Yeah, but then you have those annoying 1949, 1955, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1983, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2008, 2010 years.

 

So definitely maybe.


Low. Solar.


#2826
Omegaraptor

Posted Today, 09:13 PM

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HIO is already down to 71. This really feels more like a 90 degree day in the mountains of central/eastern Oregon or northern California than a typical 90 degree day in the valley. The massive diurnal range is wonderful and the temperature actually dropped quickly as the sun went down. Honestly, pretty much my ideal summer weather.

#2827
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:15 PM

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Check out Portland, Maine. The majority of top-tier 850mb airmasses are very recent.

Nov, Dec, Jan.

2T0rPYQ.jpg
DdP2boU.jpg
W0OLq4H.jpg

 

 

WRONG PORTLAND.


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Low. Solar.


#2828
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 09:16 PM

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Yeah, but then you have those annoying 1949, 1955, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1983, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2008, 2010 years.

 

So definitely maybe.

 

 

2008, 1990, and 1972 had some pretty good heat events at least. And the famed cold summer of 1955 actually topped out at 100 in Seattle with the big early June event.



#2829
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 09:18 PM

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Coming soon to a PNW airport near you!

Also worth noting that a lot of our mega heat wave years were actually followed by winters with decent arctic airmasses (2009, 2006, 1998, 1988, 1981, 1961, 1956, 1942, 1941). We definitely want them.

Yes we do.

#2830
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:19 PM

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2008, 1990, and 1972 had some pretty good heat events at least. And the famed cold summer of 1955 actually topped out at 100 in Seattle with the big early June event.

 

Meh. I've just never seen a real correlation between summers and following winters in the PNW.

 

That was a helluva event in early June 1955, though.


Low. Solar.


#2831
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 09:21 PM

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Good lord...

The hot weather got everyone fired up heh

#2832
GHweatherChris

Posted Today, 09:29 PM

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The hot weather got everyone fired up heh


You mean perfect weather, it really didn't get hot anywhere today.

#2833
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 09:35 PM

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You mean perfect weather, it really didn't get hot anywhere today.

wink wink
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#2834
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 09:41 PM

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Meh. I've just never seen a real correlation between summers and following winters in the PNW.

 

That was a helluva event in early June 1955, though.

 

There's not a huge correlation, but it is fun when we can pair up significant events in a single year. I had a 101 degree spread in 2009. Hottest and coldest temps of the century still that year here.



#2835
GeorgeWx

Posted Today, 09:42 PM

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WRONG PORTLAND.

Can you blame him? When I was living in Florida I only knew of a Portland Maine hehhe

#2836
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:47 PM

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Can you blame him? When I was living in Florida I only knew of a Portland Maine hehhe

 

Portland, ME is half the city of Portland, OR (city of my birth).

 

But seriously, it's way bigger and has a TV show.


Low. Solar.