May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[Dave]

I need vitamin D. Please send help.

[GeorgeWx]

OT, but be thankful we live in the PNW. This behemoth fell in Texas today.

 

Goliath hail! Thank God I never saw it get that big in Florida

[jakeinthevalley]

A part of me really misses the challenge of producing the best possible product for the golfers. I do not miss the daily stress of it however.

Was sad seeing the course that I spent nearly 10yrs at ending up looking like this. Both pics are me standing on 7 green looking back towards the fairway. 2005 just two months before leaving the course, and July of 2019!

I remember you posting those pics earlier. Amazing that we can tame nature to suit our needs but whether it's a sudden event or just a case of neglect, nature does what it does.

 

BTW, I know that stress but on a slightly lower level as I never had your level of responsibility.

 

Imagine being a Super in WA this spring with no income, few employees and still having the responsibility to keep the turf under control and healthy enough to resume play.

[GeorgeWx]

Euro seems to be on board the watering down train for this potential heat event too...for now. Things just never get very amplified on tonight’s runs.

Thunderstorms looking more likely on Saturday

[TT-SEA]

Nice ECMWF run. Some thunderstorms next Saturday night between two warm days. No extreme heat either. Steady warmth is better.

[GeorgeWx]

Nice ECMWF run. Some thunderstorms next Saturday night between two warm days. No extreme heat either. Steady warmth is better.

Steady warmth is not better

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I know it sounds crazy but he was with 2 other dudes and they all took turns. A dad and daughter took ten hours to land this tuna so it’s possible

https://www.foxnews.com/great-outdoors/massachusetts-teen-catches-700-pound-tuna

Tuna is good eating, I'd spend hours trying to reel in a big one. Goliath Grouper not so much.

[MossMan]

I remember you posting those pics earlier. Amazing that we can tame nature to suit our needs but whether it's a sudden event or just a case of neglect, nature does what it does.

 

BTW, I know that stress but on a slightly lower level as I never had your level of responsibility.

 

Imagine being a Super in WA this spring with no income, few employees and still having the responsibility to keep the turf under control and healthy enough to resume play.

It would have been a very interesting time at the course for sure. The only positive would have been if I could have kept my crew working, or at least a few of them we could have gotten some projects done while there were no golfers on the course. We could mow greens every other day instead of every day, and all the other turf once a week instead of twice a week. No course setting either so I am just envisioning having lots of time for projects like thinning trees, adding sand to the bunkers, aerifying everything without having to have unrealistic timeframes as to get the course back to 100% an so on!

[TT-SEA]

Steady warmth is not better

Most definitely. More sustainable and pleasant. Better than going back and forth from too hot to too cold in my opinion.

[GeorgeWx]

Tuna is good eating, I'd spend hours trying to reel in a big one. Goliath Grouper not so much.

Grouper taste good. I had it before

[GeorgeWx]

Most definitely. More sustainable and pleasant. Better than going back and forth from too hot to too cold in my opinion.

Give me more of a mix. Steady warmth is too dry

[TT-SEA]

Give me more of a mix. Steady warmth is too dry

Not always... southerly flow can produce periods of showers and thunderstorms that can dump a bunch of rain in a short time.

[GeorgeWx]

Not always... southerly flow can produce periods of showers and thunderstorms that can dump a bunch of rain in a short time.

[jakeinthevalley]

It would have been a very interesting time at the course for sure. The only positive would have been if I could have kept my crew working, or at least a few of them we could have gotten some projects done while there were no golfers on the course. We could mow greens every other day instead of every day, and all the other turf once a week instead of twice a week. No course setting either so I am just envisioning having lots of time for projects like thinning trees, adding sand to the bunkers, aerifying everything without having to have unrealistic timeframes as to get the course back to 100% an so on!

That is the positive side for sure!!

 

Imagine keeping the turf health, aesthetics and overall maintenance to your standards without having to worry about golfers!!

 

Sounds like a dream job unless you had to do it all yourself.

[TT-SEA]

 

Not always... southerly flow can produce periods of showers and thunderstorms that can dump a bunch of rain in a short time.

Looks like it could happen next weekend. Might get some impressive rain totals quickly. Many times that can be a better rain producer than cold troughs.

[TT-SEA]

But the EPS keeps showing that ULL washing out over CA before it gets here... this is next Sunday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I need vitamin D. Please send help.

Yeah 10 out of the past 11 days had rain here. Quite a switch from the last couple Mays.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah 10 out of the past 11 days had rain here. Quite a switch from the last couple Mays.

And the satellite this morning looks like November...

 

[MossMan]

And the satellite this morning looks like November...

 

Feels like November as well.

[Jesse]

Feels like November as well.

Yet this month will end up well above average throughout the region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny and nice today

[Jesse]

It appears the first day of the long weekend will begin with a thick overcast here. 51 currently after a low of 47.

[ShawniganLake]

This November has been exceptionally nice. Probably time for an old school other shoe to drop type situation.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 48...mostly cloudy and 53 currently.

[Jesse]

This November has been exceptionally nice. Probably time for an old school other shoe to drop type situation.

First November I’ve ever recorded with an average high a few degrees shy of 70.

[Phil]

Yeah, but that drywall is pretty much how my soul would look after enduring a couple hours of drizzle on Memorial Day. I’ll take the deadly hail.

[Phil]

Yet this month will end up well above average throughout the region.

The super Niña can’t start soon enough.

 

Looking forward to this place freaking out after one cooler than normal summer in a sea of torches. Even if it ends up torching here, I’ll derive enough satisfaction from the Timplosion to survive.

[TT-SEA]

The super Niña can’t start soon enough.

 

Looking forward to this place freaking out after one cooler than normal summer in a sea of torches.

 

 

Please tell us more about how we should judge our weather based on your weather 3,000 miles away.    

[TacomaWaWx]

Speaking of November...we only had 1.83” of rainfall in November 2019....1.76” so far this month so it’ll likely be wetter than last November!

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of November...we only had 1.83” of rainfall in November 2019....1.76” so far this month so it’ll likely be wetter than last November!

 

 

Almost there at the Cedar Lake station as well... last November had 5.21 inches there and this month is just about to 5 inches now.

[Phil]

FWIW, the cool summer folks shouldn’t throw in the towel just yet. Quite to the contrary. There are a lot of cool PNW summer analogs that featured warm patterns in late May/early June thanks to wavetrain seasonality and similarly timed intraseasonal oscillations.

 

This warm period is also intraseasonal. It’ll flip around again sometime in early June.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs and the euro look similar now in terms of precipitation...this month looks like it’ll finish warm but not scorching for now on the models. Doesn’t look like much rainfall for western WA from this system this weekend...bit more at the end of the run.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the cool summer folks shouldn’t throw in the towel just yet. Quite to the contrary. There are a lot of cool PNW summer analogs that featured warm patterns in late May/early June thanks to wavetrain seasonality and similarly timed intraseasonal oscillations.

 

This warm period is also intraseasonal. It’ll flip around again sometime in early June.

 

 

I mentioned earlier that extreme heat in late May around here is a bad sign for summer.   Hoping to avoid extreme heat this time around.

[TacomaWaWx]

FWIW, the cool summer folks shouldn’t throw in the towel just yet. Quite to the contrary. There are a lot of cool PNW summer analogs that featured warm patterns in late May/early June thanks to wavetrain seasonality and similarly timed intraseasonal oscillations.

This warm period is also intraseasonal. It’ll flip around again sometime in early June.

Last May and June were warm and dry and last summer ended up being decently cooler and wetter than what we’ve seen over the past several years.

[Phil]

I mentioned earlier that extreme heat in late May around here is a bad sign for summer. Hoping to avoid extreme heat this time around.

I don’t know much about the patterns that produce extreme surface heat there. I just look at the wave-form and forcing tendencies across the ASM inception period and yeah, late-May ridging/+TNH-like patterns are pretty common signal in cooler summers, probably thanks to seasonality and homogenous tropical/subtropical budgets.

[Timmy Supercell]

I mentioned earlier that extreme heat in late May around here is a bad sign for summer.   Hoping to avoid extreme heat this time around.

 

I do remember heat in late May into first week of June 2009, and July was one of the hottest. It hit 106-109 degrees in the Portland-metro area that summer.

 

Of course there still was a mid-June gloom, it seems to happen almost any year. Unfortunately just about all of summer that year was without t'storms west of the mountains. One of a few aspects I did not like.

[Timmy Supercell]

Not always... southerly flow can produce periods of showers and thunderstorms that can dump a bunch of rain in a short time.

 

Yup remember 2014. I had about two months straight of a primed monsoonal flow environment, and had the hottest July on record at my place. Also a near record # of thunders.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

MJVentrice

@MJVentrice

A strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has pushed into the eastern Pacific. This ocean wave will generate cooling at the surface.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Grouper taste good. I had it before

What does it taste like? What I mean is the bigger the fish, the less good tasting it is. A fish that gigantic does not taste good. Generally the smaller the fish in a particular species, the better tasting it is.