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June 2020 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 26 May 2020 - 05:41 AM

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As we just had the unofficial kick off to Summer this past weekend, met Summer officially begins in less than a week as June is knocking on our doorstep.  I'm pretty certain its going to get hot and humid for a lot of you as we open the door to a new month and a "well timed" heat wave looks to build across the Plains states and lobes of this heat will push east into the MW/GL's.  I'm sure many of you are already in Summer mode and I think based on recent trends in the models this month should end up warmer and remain active.

 

Who's ready for some summer heat???

 

Trends in the CFSv2 are warmer...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202006.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202006.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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#2
MIKEKC

Posted 26 May 2020 - 05:56 AM

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KC did finally get some rain to help get things watered. We certainly have had some bad luck in April and May. I scored 1.35 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. The grass loves it. We actually had yards turning brown in areas of KC north with mid to upper 80’s on Saturday and Sunday. Rained just in time.

Hopefully we can get a few more rounds this week before heat shows back up that Tom is mentioning.

Before the potential warm-up, Friday through Sunday look beautiful here in KC, cool mornings in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s.

Looks like KC will finish meteorological spring with below average temps and below average moisture. (Unless we get 2+ inches more this week)
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#3
Tom

Posted 27 May 2020 - 04:39 AM

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@BAMWx is on board with what I had envisioned as the seasons first "Ring of Fire" pattern.  The Euro has been advertising some intense CAPE values across the central ag belt states later next week.

 

 

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#4
james1976

Posted 27 May 2020 - 08:48 AM

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@BAMWx is on board with what I had envisioned as the seasons first "Ring of Fire" pattern. The Euro has been advertising some intense CAPE values across the central ag belt states later next week.

Bring on the storms! Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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#5
Tom

Posted 27 May 2020 - 01:26 PM

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Bring on the storms! Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

June 2nd is my target period for your backyard to be in line to get some big time storms.  The Upper MW near the Dakotas will start a day earlier and shift south the following day.  That'll be the seasons highest potential up that way and in your neck of the woods.


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#6
Hawkeye

Posted 27 May 2020 - 02:07 PM

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As we head into June, I don't think we have had a single widespread thunderstorm (MCS) event across my area.  June is typically our big month, so I hope it doesn't disappoint.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#7
Niko

Posted 27 May 2020 - 08:29 PM

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June will enter in SEMI on a very cool note. Temps Monday morning will be in the nippy 40s (low 40s that is w even a couple of upper 30s in spots).



#8
snowstorm83

Posted 27 May 2020 - 09:42 PM

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Looks like GFS has joined the cranking the heat and humidity by Tuesday. We're about to hop straight into summer. 


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#9
Tom

Posted 28 May 2020 - 04:39 AM

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Well, looks like the N Atlantic blocking pattern will negate any real sustained warmth and humidity if you live closer to the GL's next week.  Last nights Euro showing a wave of storms Wed/Thu across the eastern MW states and GL's as the first wave of the "Ring of Fire" pattern sets up.  I'm starting to think the warmest temps will hold across the central Plains and Upper MW but allow a lobe of it to head east for a few days.  DP's drop off dramatically later next week across the northern and eastern Sub as a refreshing Canadian airmass takes place.



#10
Tom

Posted 28 May 2020 - 04:52 AM

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The JMA weeklies pretty much showcase the center of the June heat across the SW/Rockies/Plains while storm clusters form on the periphery of this ridge.  Temps overall are much AN for those in NE and near normal across the eastern Sub.

 

 

Y202005.D2712_gl2.png



#11
Tom

Posted 28 May 2020 - 04:59 AM

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As we head into June, I don't think we have had a single widespread thunderstorm (MCS) event across my area.  June is typically our big month, so I hope it doesn't disappoint.

While a MCS might not be in play, early indication off the Euro is that the middle of next week would be the best chances of the season for your area to get hit with strong storms.  The Euro is showing some very high levels of CAPE and the way this season has started off, I'm sure we'll see some intense storm clusters Wed/Thu.



#12
Tom

Posted 29 May 2020 - 04:18 AM

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Yikes, the last couple runs off the Euro suggest a major heat wave to inundate the entire Sub Forum later next week all the way from the GOM to the Canadian border!  By next Friday, the Plains could be flirting with the Century mark as the seasons 1st 100F temps are in the cards.  Very high humidity is possible with DP's in the low/mid 70's across the MW/GL's/OHV starting late next week and continuing into the following week.  Looks like this heat wave may have some legs.  Gear up for some real Summer time HEAT!

 

The signal for multiple storm clusters/MCS's mid next week are increasing as we get closer in time.  The seasons 1st "Ring of Fire" pattern should spell some trouble for our members across the central Sub.


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#13
james1976

Posted 29 May 2020 - 05:07 AM

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Yeah DMX goin widespread 90s Tuesday and multiple MCS chances next week. Could be a lot of moisture to work with dew points up there.

#14
Sparky

Posted 29 May 2020 - 06:44 AM

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I’m hoping for a strong enough storm from the west so it rains onto the plants that are sheltered beneath the eaves on the west side of the house as need to water them occasionally. Looks a little damp under there now though. Just haven’t had much of any west winds during rain events for a long time!

#15
Tom

Posted 30 May 2020 - 05:09 AM

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Blazing Heat is still looking likely for parts of NE/KS and the central/southern Plains later next week as lower DP's (relative to the others on here) are blown in from the deserts of the SW into the Great Plains. I wouldn't be surprised if @CentralNeb records his first 90F & 100F temp of the season all in one week.



#16
CentralNebWeather

Posted 30 May 2020 - 10:20 AM

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Blazing Heat is still looking likely for parts of NE/KS and the central/southern Plains later next week as lower DP's (relative to the others on here) are blown in from the deserts of the SW into the Great Plains. I wouldn't be surprised if @CentralNeb records his first 90F & 100F temp of the season all in one week.


This typically is when we get a heat wave it seems like in the last 10 years or so. With all the rain we’ve had recently, I’m fearful that dew points will be higher than typical. We usually have higher dews when irrigation gets going and the crops release more moisture. Won’t have that worry yet. Not a fan of extreme heat. We have had a wonderful spring and have loved having windows open. The A/C bill will start going up.
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#17
Niko

Posted 31 May 2020 - 06:05 AM

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Nice warm-up coming next week for SEMI, but nothing extraordinary. Back to near normal or maybe slightly above or below. Lots of sunshine though, but some t'stms are in the forecast for Tuesday. Lets see if they will be severe.



#18
james1976

Posted 31 May 2020 - 09:31 PM

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Locals with 80s (90s Tuesday) and storm chances for the next 7 days. Typical summer pattern.

#19
Tom

Posted 01 June 2020 - 04:11 AM

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Fires are burning early this season and there were some that were sparked by lighting last weekend.

 

https://www.azcentra...eek/5303809002/

 

I don't recall ever seeing 30 days straight of a spotless Sun...Zzzzzz

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 30 days
2020 total: 121 days (79%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)


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#20
Stormhunter87

Posted 01 June 2020 - 05:22 AM

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Going to get toasty here.

#21
westMJim

Posted 01 June 2020 - 05:27 AM

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Welcome to the first day of meteorological summer. Looking back at May 2020. At Grand Rapids. The mean temperature was 57.7° that is a departure of -2.0. The high for the month was 90 on the 26th and the low for the month was 26 on the 9th  There was a reported 4.22” of precipitation. There was a trace of snow fall and for the season the total will be 53.5” There was a reported total of 5 thunderstorms (I can not recall that many) There we 3 records reported at Grand Rapids. 1. A new record high of 90 was recorded on May 26th 2. A new record rain fall was recorded of 1.62” was recorded on May 18th and 3 a new snow fall record of a trace was recorded on May 8th


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#22
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 June 2020 - 06:49 AM

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High of 93 forecasted today. South winds of 30 mph and dews in the mid 50’s so it won’t be bad. We got back to Weight workouts this morning with our high school football team. Beautiful weather. Kids were pumped to see each other and interact. Most hadn’t all been together since March 16th. Nebraska allows groups of 25 to work out together, though our head coach is having no more than 12 in a group for now per coach and we have multiple places to workout in stations.
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#23
Niko

Posted 01 June 2020 - 06:53 AM

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Sunny skies w temps at 63F



#24
Niko

Posted 01 June 2020 - 06:56 AM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
453 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-020900-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
453 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after midnight and
north of I-69. The storms are not expected to reach severe limits but
could produce pea size hail and heavy downpours while moving west to
east at 40 mph. Localized rainfall total could approach 1 inch by
sunrise Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a slow moving cold front approaches from the
west. There is a marginal risk for these storms to reach severe
limits with damaging wind the primary hazard. Hail near 1 inch and
locally heavy rainfall are also possible.

The Tues-nite storms have a better chance for my area, so we will see how that pans out. Once this CF rolls on through, drier, cooler air arrives.



#25
Niko

Posted 01 June 2020 - 06:57 AM

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Nice cooldown coming by the upcoming weekend as temps drop into the 50s at night w a few 40s in the colder areas and highs mainly remaining in the 70s w low humidity. Great weather for June.



#26
Sparky

Posted 01 June 2020 - 04:13 PM

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NW. Iowa is in the middle 90°s while I'm only at 78°. Even nw. Minnesota is warmer.

#27
Hawkeye

Posted 02 June 2020 - 04:27 AM

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The euro has consistently shown tonight's storms skipping over my area, but some models do show us getting something.


season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#28
westMJim

Posted 02 June 2020 - 05:41 AM

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It looks like we are in store for some nice warm summer weather.  I love it when there are high temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's and lows in the upper 50's to low 60's. If I have my way that is the kind of weather we would have that all year long. But at this point I would settle for that all summer long. At this time it is sunny and 78 here at my house.


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#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 June 2020 - 07:06 AM

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Already 85F at 10am, heading up to 92 today. Dew point is only 60F but that should be increasing soon. Enhanced risk of severe storms just south of here. I'm hoping we get some rain. My lawn is looking real good, finally. 


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#30
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 10:26 AM

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Just hit 90. And it feels all of it.
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#31
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 11:01 AM

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Nice line of storms firing in MN back into SD.
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#32
Hawkeye

Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:01 PM

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We wanted some heat and we got it.  It is currently 91/68 in Cedar Rapids.  My body is not used to it.

 

This it the first time Cedar Rapids has hit 90º since last July.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#33
bud2380

Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:18 PM

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99 degrees currently in Clarion, IA.  Tiffin is reporting 93 with a dew point of 69, heat index of 98.4


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#34
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:24 PM

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90F here but the dew point has fallen from 62 to 52 as the storms approach. The storms in that sagging line to the north are producing an incredible amount of lightning. 


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#35
bud2380

Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:36 PM

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The GFS is 15 degrees colder than the Euro for highs on Saturday in Iowa.  UK is in the Euro camp.  GFS has temps around 70 where the Euro has mid 80s.  


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#36
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 June 2020 - 01:56 PM

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Temp went from 90 to 71 in a matter of 20 minutes with the first storm cell. Good stuff.
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#37
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 01:59 PM

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100° actual temp in Sheldon.....far NW Iowa!
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#38
snowstorm83

Posted 02 June 2020 - 02:02 PM

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Upper 90s are pretty common this afternoon in Northeast NE. 99 in Wayne and 98 in Sioux City


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#39
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 June 2020 - 02:12 PM

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Tornado otg south of Mankato, MN. Good looking cell on radar.

#40
Tom

Posted 02 June 2020 - 02:19 PM

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94F at ORD...setting a record for the date...



#41
FAR_Weather

Posted 02 June 2020 - 02:25 PM

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Hot hot hot. 90.9*F.

 

I'm not liking the severe weather setup this far North tomorrow. PWAT looks good enough to maybe fire general storms up here, but I'm not liking the CAPE/DP setup for up here. I think the target zone for a good setup will be along a Lima-Canton-Youngstown line and then South of there.

 

2020060218_NAM_027_41.66,-83.83_severe_m


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#42
FAR_Weather

Posted 02 June 2020 - 02:27 PM

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Sounding for Lima tomorrow. Way better setup for damaging wind.

 

2020060218_NAMNST_025_40.59,-84.15_sever


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#43
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 03:08 PM

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Storms are really getting going across S MN. I can actually see the high clouds blowing off the storms way off to my north. I love the anticipation. Sitting out on the deck with a cold one and chops on the grill. 93 degrees
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#44
Sparky

Posted 02 June 2020 - 03:23 PM

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I could also see an overshooting top an hour ago in the FAR, FAR northern horizon. Not much to see from this far away though.

#45
Niko

Posted 02 June 2020 - 03:57 PM

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A hot, sunny day and a tad humid w temps being well into the 80s. Looks like some wild weather moving in here by daybreak. Currently, this batch of severe storms situated north of Minneapolis and making a bee-line towards MBY. My area could be increased in the "Enhanced Risk" category. So far, in the "Slight Risk."

 

More severe weather on Friday as another CF rolls on through. Sunny, cooler, drier air follows afterwards w 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for low temps.



#46
Niko

Posted 02 June 2020 - 03:57 PM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
427 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-030830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
427 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely tonight in the primary time window of
midnight to 6 AM. There is a slight risk outlook for storms to
maintain severe levels while moving through southeast Michigan. The
primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Large
hail near 1 inch is also possible along with heavy rainfall that
could lead to localized flooding. Storms are projected to move west
to east at 45 mph.


#47
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 03:59 PM

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Those must be some tall storm tops cuz the mid and high clouds are getting here but the actual storms are up by the border yet. And its actually looking a bit dark off that way. Pretty amazing. Love these kind of evenings.

#48
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 04:01 PM

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It's one of those things where it looks like the storm is almost here but its actually not.

#49
james1976

Posted 02 June 2020 - 04:09 PM

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A darkening sky to the NW and slowly moving in is one of my favorite things to watch during anytime of the year.
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#50
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 June 2020 - 04:52 PM

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Picked up 1.3” of rain in about 20 minutes. Minor flooding on my property due to a clogged storm drain. Whoever answers the phone tomorrow morning at the city office is going to wish they hadn’t answered.
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