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June 2020 Observations and Discussion

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#651
Tom

Posted 28 June 2020 - 04:50 AM

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Just a quick update on what's happening in the equatorial PAC, the recent westerly burst warmed temps in the central PAC, while the eastern PAC SST's continue to stay quite cold.

 

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Taking a look at the subsurface anomalies, we can see a general trend here as the coldest waters are staying put over the eastern central PAC closer to South America.  IF, your thinking about next Winter, this could be a good sign for a better chance of a colder eastern CONUS winter.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#652
Stacsh

Posted 28 June 2020 - 04:59 AM

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Well, so much for that "one off" run that showed comfy temps around the GL's from the Euro the other night. Last night's Euro showing blazin' heat for much of the GL's region for the 4th of July weekend, esp the lower peninsula where temps top out in the upper 90's! The saving grace will be the relatively drier air with DP's in the 60's rather than 70's.


Looks like a good old fashioned Omega block. Here in Michigan I’ll take a mini-drought right now. Lakes need to drop a bit(well a lot) Our beaches are disappearing!

#653
Tom

Posted 28 June 2020 - 05:13 AM

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July thread has been posted...

 

http://theweatherfor...and-discussion/

 

 

Looks like a good old fashioned Omega block. Here in Michigan I’ll take a mini-drought right now. Lakes need to drop a bit(well a lot) Our beaches are disappearing!

I agree!  It seems every year I see Skilling post a stat that Lake Michigan is 6" or 7" higher than a year ago...I mean, at this rate, we'll see the water levels reaching the streets of Lake Shore Drive in a few years!  I can't imagine what the beach front property owners are thinking who are likely very anxious about these rising water levels.  



#654
Niko

Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:59 AM

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Nothing but sunshine until further notice in my extended w temps approaching near 90F everyday starting Wed (which means, a incoming heatwave). Loads of sunshine and NO STORMS in sight for the foreseeable future.



#655
Niko

Posted 28 June 2020 - 07:00 AM

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Attm, its 77F w tons of sunshine.



#656
Niko

Posted 28 June 2020 - 07:03 AM

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Dont forget to check out Venus which will be visible in the eastern sky by dawn on Monday. Weather will certainly be permitted.



#657
Bryan1117

Posted 28 June 2020 - 08:55 AM

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I'm surprised nobody was talking about the line of severe storms that ripped through S NE last night. After looking at the radar loop, there was a rather large bowed line that tracked towards LNK. Seems to me a lot of you in NE got some beneficial rains overnight.

Picked up about a quarter inch of rain as my area got clipped by the northern part of the line. The strongest storms were once again off to the south. It was nice to get a quick thundershower here but we need a lot more moisture than what we got this morning.

And of course, today’s severe threat and best chance of rain will be to the north and east of us.
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#658
Niko

Posted 28 June 2020 - 09:07 AM

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Just thinking while I look at the hazy dusty sky today, I guess the Sahara helped fertilize parts of the Ozarks as well. Pretty neat, but you can definitely see and know youre breathing dust after a couple hours.

I've read a few obs from the 60s and late 70s here reporting haze in June and July. I'd imagine I know another possibility as to why now.

Hopefully, dust does not develop IMBY. Looks annoying.


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#659
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 June 2020 - 10:16 AM

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I'm surprised nobody was talking about the line of severe storms that ripped through S NE last night. After looking at the radar loop, there was a rather large bowed line that tracked towards LNK. Seems to me a lot of you in NE got some beneficial rains overnight.


Not much around here. Hit and miss. Starting to get very dry and future forecasts just show heat. I would bet that areas that don’t have irrigation are going to start seeing stressed crops in the coming 2 weeks if the hot pattern continues. Yards in my town are struggling, even with sprinkler systems. The hot and windy last month has just sapped the moisture even after a rain. Things look like early August not late June.
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#660
Niko

Posted 28 June 2020 - 12:26 PM

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Attm, 82F under mostly sunny skies. Been in my homeoffice all day, but from looking at my windows, it looks gorgeous outside.



#661
snowstorm83

Posted 28 June 2020 - 12:49 PM

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Saharan dust is here. Along with heat and humidity, it’s really an ugly day. Nebraska City has reported a dew point of 79.
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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#662
FAR_Weather

Posted 28 June 2020 - 03:12 PM

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Dew point of 74°F here in Galena, IL. Not pleasant.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#663
Niko

Posted 28 June 2020 - 04:20 PM

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Dew point of 74°F here in Galena, IL. Not pleasant.

Oppressive man, geez! Good luck w that kinda dew. :blink:



#664
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:33 PM

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    Advanced Member

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Getting pummeled tonight with storm after storm. They keep forming off of boundaries from previous storms. 69/68 currently.
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#665
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:46 PM

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Saharan dust is here. Along with heat and humidity, it’s really an ugly day. Nebraska City has reported a dew point of 79.


Whoa. We got to 71 dew here. I usually forget how much I hate humidity until we get to days like this. I’m not looking forward to my electric/water bill in the next 2 months.
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#666
james1976

Posted 28 June 2020 - 07:11 PM

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Just got home from St Paul. Dumped out 0.90" from my gauge that I got from the weekend.
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#667
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 June 2020 - 07:12 PM

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After this summer, I’m hoping for a cold and snowy winter. Next 10 days highs 92-99 and lows around 70 with minuscule rain chances. I guess that is the definition of a heat wave. Unfortunately, local forecasts say we might be over 100 at times and this may extend longer than 10 days. I will be watching for drought monitors to be expanding. Not good for the agricultural sector.
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#668
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:29 AM

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Well, last night was one for the ages. I think I slept about 2 hours total. I counted at least 6 different thunderstorms last night.Not sure if it’s done raining just yet with more stuff out west that might move this way. But my current total is 5.1”. Reports in the area of 6-8”.
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#669
james1976

Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:42 AM

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Well, last night was one for the ages. I think I slept about 2 hours total. I counted at least 6 different thunderstorms last night.Not sure if it’s done raining just yet with more stuff out west that might move this way. But my current total is 5.1”. Reports in the area of 6-8”.

Wow just overnight? Impressive. Radar looks active up there yet.
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#670
james1976

Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:44 AM

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Classic summer weather for the foreseeable future. 91/73 humid and scattered storms
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#671
westMJim

Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:51 AM

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Dry and very warm looks to be the rule for the next week or more. With light winds this week the lake shore has a good chance of being cooler than the inland areas so if you have a chance if you get too hot and you do not have AC then the lake shore may be where you want to go. So far Grand Rapids has had 83% of total possible sunshine for the month of June. I have not found a lot of information on the percentages of sunshine records, but this should be one of the most sunny June’s if not the highest sunshine here in much of west Michigan. The information I have is the average sunshine for June at Grand Rapids is 62.1% and the record is reported as 81.7% in 1963. While that may or may not be true I can say that the driest June’s at Grand Rapids were in 1988, 1959, 1984 and 1908.


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#672
Tom

Posted 29 June 2020 - 05:03 AM

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Well, last night was one for the ages. I think I slept about 2 hours total. I counted at least 6 different thunderstorms last night.Not sure if it’s done raining just yet with more stuff out west that might move this way. But my current total is 5.1”. Reports in the area of 6-8”.

The vortex spin on radar looked fascinating....

 

http://mesonet.agron...ur=17&minute=45


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#673
Tom

Posted 29 June 2020 - 05:10 AM

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A similar pattern the one St Paul is experiencing is in the cards for folks across parts of IA & IL as another spinning upper level vortex tracks up from the south.

 

 

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#674
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 June 2020 - 05:24 AM

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With as gloomy and rainy as it is now it doesn’t even seem like some impressive heat will arrive by afternoon. Heat Advisory posted for the TC (criteria for the TC is slightly different than for other areas due to the UHI from 2 close cities).

#675
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 June 2020 - 05:25 AM

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The vortex spin on radar looked fascinating....
 
http://mesonet.agron...ur=17&minute=45


Good stuff Tom! Thanks for posting this.
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#676
Niko

Posted 29 June 2020 - 08:41 AM

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Gorgeous day today. Temp at 81F w tons of sun. Great looking week coming up.



#677
james1976

Posted 29 June 2020 - 09:10 AM

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With as gloomy and rainy as it is now it doesn’t even seem like some impressive heat will arrive by afternoon. Heat Advisory posted for the TC (criteria for the TC is slightly different than for other areas due to the UHI from 2 close cities).

Gonna be a muggy one after all that moisture. What's your total so far?

#678
james1976

Posted 29 June 2020 - 09:13 AM

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@St Paul Storm btw was all this rain in the forecast?

#679
BMT

Posted 29 June 2020 - 10:01 AM

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Just went for a walk on my lunch break, it is HOT.  I currently have 88 degrees on my weather station with a dew point of 76.  


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#680
Tom

Posted 29 June 2020 - 10:53 AM

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The tropics have arrived back home...

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
.meCIMG0284x_bigger.jpg
 
Tropical air has surged into northern Illinois this A.M., resulting in Chicagoland’s most humid day of 2020. 10AM Dew Points are higher in Aurora (77°), Joliet (77°), and Morris (79°), than they are in Miami (75°). #ILwx #INwx
 

 

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#681
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 June 2020 - 11:04 AM

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@St Paul Storm btw was all this rain in the forecast?


The forecast last night had 1-2” of rain. The training storms were modeled to be south of here around I-90. I added a few tenths of an inch since my last post. I’m up to 5.3”. And yes, if the skies clear a bit this afternoon it’s gonna get nasty out there.

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#682
Niko

Posted 29 June 2020 - 11:35 AM

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I'm definitely taking advantage of my pool this week as it will be stunning weatherwise. Noone is allowed in my home ( i.e., friends and or relatives )until further notice, at least until maybe the Autumn season. Taking precautions! I can tell the sun index is at least an 9 or 10. Have to watch out for any burns.



#683
Niko

Posted 29 June 2020 - 11:36 AM

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Temp now is 84F w loads of sunshine. Humidity is noticeable.

 

Thinking of grilling some fish (shark type), along w Greek salad and some wine, or cold lemonade :D



#684
Beltrami Island

Posted 29 June 2020 - 12:47 PM

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Something to help cool everyone down, snow is falling in Wyoming.  That's about 8500' so its not crazy high elevation either.

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#685
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 June 2020 - 03:19 PM

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93 feels like 104 with a 70 dew at 6:15 pm. I’m sick of this weather already. Took the trash out and sweat is pouring down. No relief in site and very dry.
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#686
Hawkeye

Posted 30 June 2020 - 04:24 AM

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I was hoping the meso low down in the Burlington/Quincy area would lift north through eastern Iowa, but models are backing off of that scenario.


season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#687
james1976

Posted 30 June 2020 - 04:31 AM

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Yup it's pounding down there

#688
Tom

Posted 30 June 2020 - 04:35 AM

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Most CAM's are developing a possible significant line of storms over E NE later tonight...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_23.png


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#689
Bryan1117

Posted 30 June 2020 - 06:05 AM

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Most CAM's are developing a possible significant line of storms over E NE later tonight...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_23.png

Most of the local mets around here think we are going to be missed again to the north tonight (imagine that, LOL)... I really hope this model is correct and we can cash in on some much needed rainfall and storms.


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#690
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 08:52 AM

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Sunny and beautiful outside w temps in the 80s and not too humid. It will get more muggy by weeks end as the 90s approach.


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#691
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 08:53 AM

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No storms came make it here IMBY due to blocking. Have to wait till next week (hopefully by midweek). UGH! F- bummer!



#692
Hawkeye

Posted 30 June 2020 - 10:42 AM

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This pattern has not panned out well at all for my area, but it would be nice if we could get a couple tenths to fill my rain barrel before the dryness sets in.  The problem with this pattern is these slow-moving meso lows dump big rain over small areas, but away from the lows there's nothing.  This morning's meso low down by Burlington will actually hurt me because it will cause tonight's eastern NE/western IA line to dive southeast into Missouri.

 

The Euro sure doesn't like Iowa.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#693
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 June 2020 - 11:16 AM

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Oh man....sun is coming out and suddenly 88/76 with a heat index of 99.  Swampy soup. 


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#694
FAR_Weather

Posted 30 June 2020 - 11:29 AM

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*
POPULAR

Oh man....sun is coming out and suddenly 88/76 with a heat index of 99. Swampy soup.


I'm on your turf today. Indeed it is miserable.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#695
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 June 2020 - 11:38 AM

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I'm on your turf today. Indeed it is miserable.

 

Passing through on the way to Fargo? Enjoy the brief stay. The humidity is like a punch in the face. I'll take a wind chill of 0F any day over this junk. 


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#696
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 12:54 PM

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Mostly sunny skies and not too extreme in terms of humidity levels. As a matter of fact, dew is in the mid 60s range, which is considered "Noticeable." Stepped outside and went to Ace Hardware store to buy a few things and thinking to myself, Quote: A nice t'stm would be sOOOOoooooo nice now, even if it were for 1 min to pour. But noOOOOOO, that stubborn "HP" to my north has to block the weather pattern in MI and prevent anything from moving towards my area. UGH!



#697
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 12:56 PM

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@FAR_Weather

 

Safe travels! ;)


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#698
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 01:01 PM

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I don't think I have seen a forecast for my area b4 where it shows "Sunny Skies" for 9 straight days in a row! Wow!

 

Btw: last year all Summer long, the amt of times that my area hit 90 or better was 10X. Looks like after this week and next week, we will have surpass that number easily. Average 90 degree days in the Summer is 12X.



#699
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 01:09 PM

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Saharan dust is here. Along with heat and humidity, it’s really an ugly day. Nebraska City has reported a dew point of 79.

Wow..now that is extreme! Most likely hard to breathe in that type of air.


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#700
snowstorm83

Posted 30 June 2020 - 06:48 PM

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Lincoln might be too far south and get missed by the line of the storms in Central NE. At least I'm on the north edge of town so there might be some hope. 


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"