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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion

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#1
Niko

Posted 14 July 2020 - 04:15 PM

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Hope it is acceptable w the mods by starting this topic in July.

 

I have been hearing lately about a lot of "Polar Vortex" visiting our nation next Winter and a lot more snow for many. Last year it never unleashed its fury, until late Winter and into Spring, where snows were falling in April and in May. This upcoming Winter will be different. Lake Effect snows also will be amazing as well, since there is a lot of warm water available. Upper Midwest will freeze as P.V visits are much more frequent and stronger. Michigan likely to see major snowstorms. Again, it is very early to predict what will happen, but it is looking very good for many. Lets discuss...........

 

 


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#2
Tom

Posted 15 July 2020 - 01:59 AM

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Thanks Niko!  I was debating on when to fire up this thread but I'm glad you did.  While we are at the mid point of Summer, it's not to early to start thinking about Autumn and cooler thoughts.  Based on what I'm seeing at this range, things are indeed looking much more interesting this season.  Last year, I busted badly and I hope that my intuition for this season is right.  We need that blocking to rock this year!


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#3
Niko

Posted 15 July 2020 - 06:26 AM

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Thanks Niko!  I was debating on when to fire up this thread but I'm glad you did.  While we are at the mid point of Summer, it's not to early to start thinking about Autumn and cooler thoughts.  Based on what I'm seeing at this range, things are indeed looking much more interesting this season.  Last year, I busted badly and I hope that my intuition for this season is right.  We need that blocking to rock this year!

You bet! B4 ya know it, August will be here and the countdown to "Meteorological" Autumn will be upon us. Funny how time flies by.

 

We all have to bust in our lifetime to learn from our mistakes, so don't let that concern you. In the meantime, looking forward in reading your thoughts on this upcoming, excited "Winter Season."

 

Btw: What the heck happened to our buddies, Jaster and Clinton??!! We need them on here. :wacko:
 


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#4
james1976

Posted 15 July 2020 - 06:33 AM

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When you start hearing the locust and seeing the sun set earlier its hard to not think about Autumn. I'd love for an early fall after such a hot/humid July.

#5
snowstorm83

Posted 15 July 2020 - 10:40 AM

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You bet! B4 ya know it, August will be here and the countdown to "Meteorological" Autumn will be upon us. Funny how time flies

Btw: What the heck happened to our buddies, Jaster and Clinton??!! We need them on here. :wacko:


Clinton probably hibernates in the summer haha
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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#6
Sparky

Posted 15 July 2020 - 06:03 PM

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Clinton probably hibernates in the summer haha


I’m more likely to do that in the winter, kind of like some wildlife. Haha
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#7
FAR_Weather

Posted 15 July 2020 - 06:33 PM

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Hope it is acceptable w the mods by starting this topic in July.

I have been hearing lately about a lot of "Polar Vortex" visiting our nation next Winter and a lot more snow for many. Last year it never unleashed its fury, until late Winter and into Spring, where snows were falling in April and in May. This upcoming Winter will be different. Lake Effect snows also will be amazing as well, since there is a lot of warm water available. Upper Midwest will freeze as P.V visits are much more frequent and stronger. Michigan likely to see major snowstorms. Again, it is very early to predict what will happen, but it is looking very good for many. Lets discuss...........



Just from looking at the thumbnail, that Winter prediction gives me deja vu feelings. Kind of like that's the same map from last year. And the year before that. And the year before that.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#8
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 16 July 2020 - 01:48 PM

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Last winter was a complete bust on the west coast. We are experiencing our 3rd straight much driest than normal water year. With -ENSO emerging it seems likely we will have an active storm season at the very least. The past three winters here have also had essentially nothing in December and January. February and March have been a big more interesting however. 

 

We are probably due for a wet October-January period more than anything. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#9
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 July 2020 - 04:05 PM

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Just from looking at the thumbnail, that Winter prediction gives me deja vu feelings. Kind of like that's the same map from last year. And the year before that. And the year before that.


I thought the same thing.

#10
Tom

Posted 19 July 2020 - 04:36 AM

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"Alright, Alright, Alright..."...it's that time of year when I start thinking about "cooler" thoughts and the Autumn season ahead along with a glimpse at what the models are showing for the upcoming cold season.  Is anyone else thinking the same???  While we are enduring what most of us can say are the "dog days of summer", it won't be long till we are enjoying Labor Day weekend and the unofficial end to Summer.  The question is, will the wx pattern in Sept present the same theme we have seen for several years in a row, whereby summer weather continues into Sept???  Let's see what the models have to say about this.

 

I looked at the JMA/CFSv2/Euro/UKMET seasonal runs and the common feature from all of them is the development of some sort of ridge out west and across eastern Canada, perhaps near Greenland if you believe the CFSv2.  This such 500mb pattern would "flip the script" of the string of warm to hot Sept's in recent years.  Do I believe them???  Well, my gut says Yes, but then the voice in my head says..."don't fall for it!"  It's interesting to see the majority of the models agree with a very similar 500mb pattern.  What about temps/precip patterns???

 

The JMA shows this...

 

Y202007.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

 

Y202007.D0500_gl0.png

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been rather consistent with the overall pattern and showing near normal temps east of the Rockies, similar to the JMA.  The Euro seasonal is not as cool and holds onto the idea that warmer conditions will prevail, however, with the aforementioned 500mb pattern it is showing I'd be cautious of this scenario.

 

What about the UKIE???  Well, I don't get access to the individual runs but the public site allows you to see multi-month runs and they show the same signal for a ridge out west and off the coast of eastern Canada.

 

2cat_20200701_z500_months24_global_deter

 

 

 

Temps...seasonal central, warm west and east....

 

 

2cat_20200701_temp2m_months24_global_det

 

Precip...very wet eastern 2/3rd's of the nation...

 

2cat_20200701_prec_months24_global_deter

 

 

 

 

In short, I'm looking forward to seeing the trends in the models over the coming weeks to come.  Will they continue to show consistency as we move along???  I will be pondering on these ideas during the remaining days/weeks of Summer.  Later this week I'll dive deeper into the Autumn season as a whole and what could be a winter season that shall finally have some real deal blocking.

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#11
james1976

Posted 20 July 2020 - 10:25 AM

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NOAA issued a LaNina Watch as of July 12th. That could bode well for many of us.
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#12
westMJim

Posted 22 July 2020 - 06:07 AM

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I know it is only July 22nd but today Accuweather came out with their fall outlook. So for what it is worth here is their fall 2020 outlook.

Fall 2020 Highlights:

Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – There will be a mix of dry and some wet periods. It will be warm overall, but a quick change in November can bring chilly periods. Fall foliage colors can be good, but delayed by one to two weeks with some early drop in areas due to mid- and late-summer dryness. Tropical moisture can spread along New England coast, especially in October leading to flooding (moderate confidence).

Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast – Tropical impacts can lead to flooding and damaging winds Gulf states and Carolinas; it will be warm and rather humid much of the time, perhaps cooling in late fall with drier weather. Fall foliage in the interior should be good and vibrant, but any storm can bring early drop of leaves (moderate confidence).

Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, northern Plains – Warm overall, perhaps some record warmth in September. A few strong thunderstorm events can occur across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Harvest looks good in eastern areas with enough dry periods to be on time or early. Some delays are possible from frequent showers in the northern Plains. Fall foliage will be good, but delayed, in eastern and northern areas. Southern areas will be a bit duller due to mid- and late-summer heat and dryness (lower to moderate confidence).

Based on their guess it could be warm and dry this fall season.



#13
Tom

Posted 31 July 2020 - 03:16 AM

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Hmmmm, this is looking like a different start to September compared to recent years.  Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies showing somewhat of a central or eastern CONUS trough.  Will this be a warm or cool Labor Day weekend this year???

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#14
Tom

Posted 01 August 2020 - 03:32 AM

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The forecasted La Nina is starting to show its face across the the central Pacific ocean.  Colder waters have shown to be up welling first across the eastern PAC, but now more so in the central PAC.

 

 

The last 30- days...

 

 

ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

 

 

 

Notice the Sub Surface waters in the west PAC have cooled and seemingly appear to be cooling the entire basin....

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

With that being said, the majority of the global models are showing a massive area of the central and portions of the southern PAC to cool over the next 30-60 days.  Both the CFS and CanSIPS are in agreement.

 

glbSSTMonInd2.gif

 

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_2.png

 

 

 

 

In fact, the CanSIPS is suggesting the La Nina to become a mod/strong central-based Nina by Oct/Nov...???  The trend off this model has been colder and more widespread cooling when comparing to previous runs.  For instance, look at the last 5 runs for December...interesting to say the least.

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_3.png

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_4.png

 

 

 

 

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#15
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 August 2020 - 05:13 AM

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Hmmmm, this is looking like a different start to September compared to recent years. Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies showing somewhat of a central or eastern CONUS trough. Will this be a warm or cool Labor Day weekend this year???


Ooohh.... PLEASE!!
This will be one of the most "classic" and beautiful autumns ever here.

With respect to your 2017 comments in another post, while I do agree with that particular look that day, this next 6 weeks won't be anything like the last 5 years have been. :)

If that map verifies, you folks need to come down to the Ozarks and Boston Mountains this fall. It's going to be phenomenal.

Tree fatigue or stress this year is the lowest on August 1 since probably 2008 in my memory. Very little blemishes or even yellowing on any trees.
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#16
Tom

Posted 01 August 2020 - 05:19 AM

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Ooohh.... PLEASE!!
This will be one of the most "classic" and beautiful autumns ever here.

With respect to your 2017 comments in another post, while I do agree with that particular look that day, this next 6 weeks won't be anything like the last 5 years have been. :)

If that map verifies, you folks need to come down to the Ozarks and Boston Mountains this fall. It's going to be phenomenal.

Tree fatigue or stress this year is the lowest on August 1 since probably 2008 in my memory. Very little blemishes or even yellowing on any trees.

That sounds like a great idea!  BTW, I only used Aug '17 as an analog for this Summer and not so much for the upcoming Autumn.  Like you said, there is more interesting data that I"m seeing which lead me to believe it will be different.



#17
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:27 AM

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That sounds like a great idea! BTW, I only used Aug '17 as an analog for this Summer and not so much for the upcoming Autumn. Like you said, there is more interesting data that I"m seeing which lead me to believe it will be different.


Yes sir. I agree with your point in that regard. Spot-on actually.

#18
james1976

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:52 AM

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When was the last mod-strong La Nina?

#19
Tom

Posted 01 August 2020 - 08:59 AM

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When was the last mod-strong La Nina?


I’d have to look that up unless someone else can chime in.

#20
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 August 2020 - 10:48 AM

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When was the last mod-strong La Nina?


2010-11?
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#21
Tom

Posted 02 August 2020 - 02:24 AM

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When was the last mod-strong La Nina?

Did a quick search and it appears to have been in 2017-18 where it reach moderate category (-1.0C)  during NDJ and just below during winter DJF with a 0.9C reading.  I remember that winter was dubbed "Dakota Special".  We lacked the blocking ALL season long.  The PAC NW and N Rockies got pummeled with snow early and often.

 

https://origin.cpc.n...tuff/ONI_v5.php

 

 

Edit: @OK mentioned 2010-11 as the last borderline mod/strong Nina and it looks like it was.


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#22
james1976

Posted 02 August 2020 - 07:58 AM

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Thanks for the find! Now if we can get some blocking we could be in business.
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#23
gabel23

Posted 02 August 2020 - 08:29 AM

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Did a quick search and it appears to have been in 2017-18 where it reach moderate category (-1.0C) during NDJ and just below during winter DJF with a 0.9C reading. I remember that winter was dubbed "Dakota Special". We lacked the blocking ALL season long. The PAC NW and N Rockies got pummeled with snow early and often.

https://origin.cpc.n...tuff/ONI_v5.php


Edit: @OK mentioned 2010-11 as the last borderline mod/strong Nina and it looks like it was.


2000-2001 was a cold brutal winter in our area; I know the Great Lakes region did even better! Was that a weak La Niña?
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#24
Tom

Posted 02 August 2020 - 08:37 AM

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2000-2001 was a cold brutal winter in our area; I know the Great Lakes region did even better! Was that a weak La Niña?


Yup, looks like a weak Niña (-0.7C) transitioning out of a strong Niña the year prior.
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#25
Beltrami Island

Posted 02 August 2020 - 06:58 PM

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Did a quick search and it appears to have been in 2017-18 where it reach moderate category (-1.0C) during NDJ and just below during winter DJF with a 0.9C reading. I remember that winter was dubbed "Dakota Special". We lacked the blocking ALL season long. The PAC NW and N Rockies got pummeled with snow early and often.

https://origin.cpc.n...tuff/ONI_v5.php


Edit: @OK mentioned 2010-11 as the last borderline mod/strong Nina and it looks like it was.


2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.
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#26
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 August 2020 - 01:02 AM

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2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.


If you're me, Dakota Special has been every year from 2015-2020. Lol. Half-decade of Suckville anywhere not named the Northwest or coastal New England. :lol:

#27
Tom

Posted 03 August 2020 - 01:43 AM

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2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.

Ahh, yes...I got my years screwed up...thanks for the correction.  That year the ENSO was neutral and remember how warm our winter was bc of that consistent GOA Low.  Back in 2017-18 was the year OMA had a record snowfall if I remember correctly and the Upper MW/GL's did phenomenal.  Every single system literally tracked over head around here.  You guys up north had a banner second half of Winter into Spring.



#28
FAR_Weather

Posted 03 August 2020 - 06:13 AM

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Ahh, yes...I got my years screwed up...thanks for the correction. That year the ENSO was neutral and remember how warm our winter was bc of that consistent GOA Low. Back in 2017-18 was the year OMA had a record snowfall if I remember correctly and the Upper MW/GL's did phenomenal. Every single system literally tracked over head around here. You guys up north had a banner second half of Winter into Spring.


2018-19 was the awesome Winter for Nebraska. 2017-18 was near average, and lacking any appreciable snowfall.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#29
Tom

Posted 03 August 2020 - 06:59 AM

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2018-19 was the awesome Winter for Nebraska. 2017-18 was near average, and lacking any appreciable snowfall.


Crap, got that one wrong! Seems like all these years blend into one for me bc of all the misses and Low’s tracking right over me. ‘17-‘18 was the Upper Mw/N GL’s year for sure. I remember storm after storm dumpin’ 6-12” and building a flavor. Our member Brian sent pics of a 3’ Base in N Wisco! Crazy times. Let’s get something similar this year but farther south and share the wealth!

#30
james1976

Posted 03 August 2020 - 07:05 AM

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18-19 was great. It snowed into April. Waterloo set a snowfall record of 60.0" that season.

#31
FAR_Weather

Posted 03 August 2020 - 03:00 PM

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Crap, got that one wrong! Seems like all these years blend into one for me bc of all the misses and Low’s tracking right over me. ‘17-‘18 was the Upper Mw/N GL’s year for sure. I remember storm after storm dumpin’ 6-12” and building a flavor. Our member Brian sent pics of a 3’ Base in N Wisco! Crazy times. Let’s get something similar this year but farther south and share the wealth!


I'll take another 2016-17 up here

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#32
Niko

Posted 05 August 2020 - 10:09 AM

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A 2013-14 Winter pls!!....... and that is an order!! ;)


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#33
Beltrami Island

Posted 05 August 2020 - 10:51 AM

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I'll take another 2016-17 up here

I think you'd be disappointed with 2016-17 overall in Fargo.  November through Mid December was way above normal temps.  Mid December to Mid January was a good stretch of winter temps and snow.  Second half of January was a huge meltdown.  First half of February recovered just enough winter to be satisfying before another meltdown the second half.  Presidents day weekend brought a large rainstorm to the entire region that was pretty much the end of winter.

 

The dakota special train of cutters dumped snow primarily on central ND (Bismark) from late November through mid January.  But Mid January was the end of that train. 

There was a freak snowstorm mid november that dumped 2 feet of snow in central and ne minnesota, but even that melted due to the warm temps by the end of November.     


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#34
Stacsh

Posted 06 August 2020 - 09:03 AM

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I'm just here for all the cold and snowy wishforecasting.    13-14-15 spoiled everyone.   :D


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