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April 13-14th Spring Storm System


Geos

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A strong wave or waves will eject out of the Rocky Mountains next Sunday and it could bring severe weather heavy rains and even some snow to areas of the sub forum.

 

Discuss.

 

0z NAM showing widespread 1" + amounts.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Sunday continues to look like a pretty good soaker for Iowa on the nw side of the main wave.  It's less clear how the Saturday evening storms will play out.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z run of the NAM and GFS backed off any idea of a large scale snowfall for the region.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075

 

You'll probably have to be lucky (or unlucky) to get accumulation out of this setup. Cold air seems to chase out/push the moisture ahead like a snowplow and not actually mix with it very much.

 

Extensive area of heavy rain from convective storms though.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Nothing will beat the night I got 15"..

 

Wow, when was this?

 

One night I had about 7" in about 8-9 hours.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Wow, when was this?

 

One night I had about 7" in about 8-9 hours.

Late July in 2011. Dubuque received 14.33" and the town to my east, Galena, received over 15"... Mudslides all over, roads completely wiped out, major flooding, it looked like total devastation is much of the town. It's a small town of only about 2,000 residents I live in, so one of the links ill post talks about FEMA aid and how we didn't have enough damage, but just think about how small our town is so the damage was quite extensive. Anyway, here are two little articles about it:

 

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/07/28/282008/dubuque-flooded-by-14-inches-of-rain-in-12-hours/

 

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/No-FEMA-Funds-For-East-Dubuque-131101323.html

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At Dubzz - yeah now I remember that event there! I've been to Galena several times and know that the area is prone to mud/rock slides. I'll have to look when I get home to see how much I got from that.

 

NAM really shoves the snow area west on this run.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Local mets hitting at the possibility of flooding late Sunday into Monday. Caplan showed a model spitting out 2-4.5" of rain for far northern and southern WI!

 

 

Good chance some flood watches/flash flood watches/warnings will go up during this storm.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Late July in 2011. Dubuque received 14.33" and the town to my east, Galena, received over 15"... Mudslides all over, roads completely wiped out, major flooding, it looked like total devastation is much of the town. It's a small town of only about 2,000 residents I live in, so one of the links ill post talks about FEMA aid and how we didn't have enough damage, but just think about how small our town is so the damage was quite extensive. Anyway, here are two little articles about it:

 

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/07/28/282008/dubuque-flooded-by-14-inches-of-rain-in-12-hours/

 

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/No-FEMA-Funds-For-East-Dubuque-131101323.html

 

I had 4.98" of rain in about a 24 hour period here (27-28th). Thing of it was there was another extreme rainfall event the 22-23rd. 10.45" of rain that month.

I remember the mold spores were bad that month/summer.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Severe t-storm roaming northern IL and WI this morning. Some of prolific hail producers.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That first one will miss me to the north, second (larger) one headed toward me. We'll see how much energy it has left once it gets here. 1.5" hail reported near Cherry Valley/Rockford.

 

Either my eyes are playing tricks on me, or the radar seems to indicate rotation.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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That first one will miss me to the north, second (larger) one headed toward me. We'll see how much energy it has left once it gets here. 1.5" hail reported near Cherry Valley/Rockford.

 

Either my eyes are playing tricks on me, or the radar seems to indicate rotation.

could be a tornado warning at any time meichel that the storm might be producing walnut to pingball size.

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could be a tornado warning at any time meichel that the storm might be producing walnut to pingball size.

These are elevated storms so rotation down near the ground is going to be pretty hard, that's why there hasn't been any tornado warnings if you are seeing rotation on the storm relative velocity scans

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Receiving some pea sized hail here, but mainly big rain drops. A lot of C-G strikes. No wind.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Had very little in the way of wind here when it passed through. 15mph gust max. Not much rain either. It's weakened considerably since heading east. Found a coupla pieces of hail closer to 2", and a majority of the pieces were around 1".

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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Had very little in the way of wind here when it passed through. 15mph gust max. Not much rain either. It's weakened considerably since heading east. Found a coupla pieces of hail closer to 2", and a majority of the pieces were around 1".

 

Near 2" is pretty impressive! Any damage?

 

It just stopped raining here and the sky is brightening up.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Up to 72 here now.

 

Excuse me for not knowing this, I haven't been paying a ton of attention except for today's stuff... Is tomorrow expected to just be more of a widespread rain event?

 

Yeah, although there could be thunder mixed in.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Near 2" is pretty impressive! Any damage?

 

It just stopped raining here and the sky is brightening up.

 

That 2" piece was mushroom shaped (as about 1/3 of all the pieces were) and looked to be 3 or 4 pieces fused together. Biggest piece that was smooth/round was 1.5"

 

Dents on vehicles for sure, haven't checked the roof or aluminum siding. The storm chaser contractors will be out in full force here next week.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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Just hit 60° here... again. Was that when I got up at 9am.

 

Upper 70s already showing up in NE IL to the south of here. Someone is going to hit 80° at this pace. Will be interesting to see if there are hail producers tomorrow as well.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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