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#51
richard mann

Posted 20 July 2014 - 11:03 PM

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According to the laws of radiative transfer. This is pretty much agreed upon, if I'm not mistaken...

http://www.middlebury.net/nicol-08.doc

 

.. You did this before. I ask a straight-forward according to whom, general question, the broader theme then, as with this idea, obviously having to do with "Physics", ....

 

And you plop down "According to the laws of Physics". If in this case more pointing to some of them more specific. 

 

I've simply asked you to point to where you've seen what you've suggested, pointed to elsewhere / asserted otherwise .. if it hadn't been something that you've arrived at more yourself alone.

 

.. Before I check the document that you've routed to above, .. does what it contains work to demonstrate what you've suggested above. ?


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#52
Phil

Posted 21 July 2014 - 01:08 AM

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Yes, the document is written by a physicist who has reached the same conclusion as I have.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#53
richard mann

Posted 21 July 2014 - 01:18 AM

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Clear enough.
 
.. Where, within it more specifically. ?

 

Perhaps you could quote some of what you've noted that does so.


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#54
Chris

Posted 22 July 2014 - 02:42 PM

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I've no idea how they got these numbers from 1600 AD, but here you go -

Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg



#55
Phil

Posted 22 July 2014 - 04:10 PM

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A lot it is derived via isotope analysis via ice core data. It's a fairly reliable method.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#56
richard mann

Posted 22 July 2014 - 04:36 PM

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... And, as to this then. ?
 
http://theweatherfor...-stuff/?p=30146


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#57
Phil

Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:05 PM

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If you're searching for a few precise snippets of mathematical dialogue, you're not going to find anything of interest when studying radiative transfer.

You'll find the explanations you seek throughout the paper. You can't summarize all the aspects of radiative forcing and resulting emergent phenomenon in just a few equations/paragraphs..or so we think we know..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#58
richard mann

Posted 22 July 2014 - 10:40 PM

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If you're searching for a few precise snippets of mathematical dialogue, you're not going to find anything of interest when studying radiative transfer.

You'll find the explanations you seek throughout the paper.


I've simply asked you to point to where you've seen what you've suggested, pointed to elsewhere / asserted otherwise .. if it hadn't been something that you've arrived at more yourself alone.
 
.. Before I check the document that you've routed to above, .. does what it contains work to demonstrate what you've suggested above. ?


You can't summarize all the aspects of radiative forcing and resulting emergent phenomenon in just a few equations/paragraphs..or so we think we know..

 

You can't, one can't, ... So "no" then.
 

AGW theory requires the intercepted IR to be thermalized in the upper troposphere before that heat can go anywhere. If the upper troposphere isn't warming, then they have a problem.


Anyone else. ? ... perhaps reading this, able to illuminate, substantiate this thinking, any better than its author here. ?
 

... the document is written by a physicist who has reached the same conclusion as I have.


[And] I see. Perhaps (only.) you could summarize your's more specific for me.


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#59
Phil

Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:11 AM

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Everything you need has been linked to you. If you don't want to read, that's fine.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#60
richard mann

Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:05 PM

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If you say so "Phil". ... Though, in this case, and with this attitude and response of yours above looked at more in particularly, I'm certainly inclined to go along with Jesse.
 

... He's just so gosh darn smart! He can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!

 

... For anyone else's benefit.

http://www.middlebury.net/nicol-08.doc

Merely scroll down to ...

"Conclusion"

$ .... It's the same as "Phil's".


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#61
Chris

Posted 06 August 2014 - 01:54 PM

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Phil, or anyone else -

 

Have you seen any graphs that compare tropical cloud cover with the solar cycles?



#62
Phil

Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:26 PM

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Phil, or anyone else -

Have you seen any graphs that compare tropical cloud cover with the solar cycles?


I know of spectral data that reveals strong coherence on several timescales, but it's in raw format. I'd have to plot it myself.

Cloud cover is actually very low right now (-3%, +/- 1% within a 95% confidence window from 2013) which I did not anticipate. But the IR data from July suggests we're recovering, finally
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#63
Chris

Posted 10 September 2014 - 03:19 PM

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Another X flare today, heading straight at the Earth. 

 

From spaceweather.com "Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a powerful X1.6-class solar flare (Sept. 10 @ 17:46 UT). The source was active sunspot AR2158, which is directly facing Earth...Ionizing radiation from the flare could cause HF radio blackouts and other communications disturbances, especially on the day-lit side of Earth. In the next few hours, when coronagraph data from SOHO and STEREO become available, we will see if a CME emerges from the blast site. If so, the cloud would likely be aimed directly at Earth and could reach our planet in 2 to 3 days



#64
Phil

Posted 10 September 2014 - 03:31 PM

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Not good, could really deplete polar O^3 and strengthen the PV if it continues.

With a Niño circulation in the NPAC, PNW desperately needs blocking to avoid getting pineappled.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#65
richard mann

Posted 10 September 2014 - 03:34 PM

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With a Niño circulation in the NPAC, PNW desperately needs blocking to avoid getting pineappled.


Once again Phil, here I am requesting elucidation.

Perhaps you could expand a bit with respect to your more general thinking here above. ?

 

".. a .. Nino circulation in the NPAC" ... "blocking to avoid". (?)


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#66
Phil

Posted 10 September 2014 - 05:03 PM

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You're just relentless. Maybe clarify your questions, specifically?

- Niño circulation?

- Blocking?

- Pineapple Express?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#67
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 September 2014 - 08:57 PM

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Not good, could really deplete polar O^3 and strengthen the PV if it continues.

With a Niño circulation in the NPAC, PNW desperately needs blocking to avoid getting pineappled.

How much longer do you think this Solar max will continue before we begin to trend downward toward the next minimum?



#68
Phil

Posted 10 September 2014 - 09:04 PM

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We've got another 1-3 years. Around 2016-2018 is when I'm anticipating the drop.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#69
richard mann

Posted 10 September 2014 - 09:09 PM

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http://theweatherfor...-stuff/?p=32606
 
First, I don't know WT[ ] you're talking about where considering your suggestion that I'm (being.?) relentless.  

(As in, bullsh*t someone else.)

 

Where considering what. ?  ".. discussion, forum". .. Are you in fact familiar with the concept. ?
 
One possible scenario, ... Someone drops up a statement. Unclear to someone other having read it. And with this idea, that other person asks the person who posted the statement, to clarify it.  ("relentless". ?)
 
.. Specify what I don't understand. ?  Fine.  More essentially, your more esoteric twists along with inferences (that go nowhere.) attached (liberally.) to portions, of meteorological ideas. But with this idea let's look more specifically, at your post submitted above, isolated quoted here again just below. 


With a Niño circulation in the NPAC, PNW desperately needs blocking to avoid getting pineappled.

 
What is ....... (? ) "a Niño circulation". ? - @

And with this, with looking at where and how you've used this phrase here above (?), .. what does, "With .. a Niño circulation .. in the NPAC", mean exactly. ?
 
And then (?), with these questions more specific, answered, ...
 
What is your more expanded reasoning / thinking, where having connected this odd statement, to the more general idea that you've suggested, following it. ? "... [the ?] PNW desperately needs blocking to avoid getting pineappled."

I'll leave alone the idea of just how this (if more obscured.) thinking of yours here, ties in with what you'd suggested pointed to proceeding it. Or Solar activity more generally. .. Probably too much to ask, I'm guessing.


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#70
Chris

Posted 11 September 2014 - 06:53 AM

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Brewer-Dobson Cells transport heat/O^3 from the tropical stratosphere to the polar stratosphere/PV domain. Stronger, more efficient cells = weaker PNJ/PV, stronger vertical eddys/wave breakers, and a poleward EPF vector.

 

 

Stronger Sun electromagnetically accelerates O^3 photodissociation in the stratosohere, warms the top of the Hadley Cells, slows the Brewer-Dobson Cells, strengthens the PNJ/PV (which further destroys O^3), pushes the EPF vector equatorialward, warms the tropical tropopause, weakens the MJO, hence weakening MT/PW amplitude, hence strengthening the belly of the PV through the polar troposphere, etc.

A lot to go through. :)

 

Copied from another thread



#71
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 11 September 2014 - 09:26 PM

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We've got another 1-3 years. Around 2016-2018 is when I'm anticipating the drop.

Thanks. I didn't realize that we could have that much longer to go.



#72
richard mann

Posted 11 September 2014 - 09:34 PM

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.. Of course what's most important, is that you know what you've meant. Right. ? 
 
 
Let me just drop in my formal "Never mind", in here, ok .. "Phil". ?

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#73
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 September 2014 - 08:36 PM

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Thanks. I didn't realize that we could have that much longer to go.

phil I believe predicted this period we are in 2013 -2017 would be a transition period with alot of variability. and then around 2017 would be the beginning of the drop.it will be interesting to see how this all progress.geos and F Guimaraes have very slimmuler thoughts on this as well.

#74
Chris

Posted 02 December 2014 - 02:51 PM

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The global climate through most of the 1800s was a very different animal, relative to the climate of the early 20th century.

There was likely a relatively abrupt expansion/poleward migration of the Hadley Cells between 1900-1950, along with a jump in global temperatures during that time. Reanalysis indicates strengthening subtropical highs and a poleward biased westerly belt/ferrel domain..this is probably responsible for the decline in the frequency of Arctic events..

The Dalton Minimum is thought to have significantly altered the tropical circulations and the dynamics of the systematic wave trains..lots of strange anomalies noted in the 19th century. When solar activity spiked later in the 1800s, the response was clear and abrupt..



#75
Chris

Posted 18 February 2015 - 10:52 AM

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Activity is dying down.

 

hmi1898.gif


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#76
Chris

Posted 29 June 2015 - 07:33 AM

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Article in Nature about chances of a solar minimum and its impact on our weather.  A lot of it sounds like something Phil would have written.   http://www.nature.co...ncomms8535.html

 

"

Northern hemisphere winter response

In our experiments, while cooling is evident year round, the largest and most coherent anomalies are in the northern hemisphere in boreal winter and spring. Much of this structure can be explained by a relative change in atmospheric circulation. During December to February, a negative AO/NAO-like mean sea-level pressure pattern is seen in both experiments (Fig. 3a,e). Over the North Pacific, the deepened Aleutian low is consistent with the observed pressure response to changes in solar activity10, 21, 22. In the Atlantic sector, EXPT-B has a stronger and more significant response, showing a weakening in the NAO (defined for the model as the difference in sea-level pressure between gridpoints nearest to the Azores and southwest Iceland) of 1.8hPa, which is a notable proportion of the interannual standard deviation of 7–8hPa. Again, the NAO pattern is consistent with the observed response associated with the 11-year cycle over the recent re-analysis period11, which has been found to be significant and maximizes at a lag of ~3–4 years for the period 1870–2010 (ref. 10)."

 

and also - "As a result of the decrease in solar irradiance, both experiments show widespread cooling with respect to CTRL-8.5 (Fig. 2). The relative annual global mean near-surface temperature change for the period 2050–2099 is a cooling of 0.13 and 0.12°C for EXPT-A and EXPT-B, respectively. This offsets or delays the global warming trend by ~2 years and is small compared with the modelled global warming."