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April 26th-27th Possible Severe Weather Outbreak

Thunderstorms Severe Weather Outbreak Hail Tornados Strong Winds Heavy Rain Nebraska Kansas Texas
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#1
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 April 2014 - 05:19 PM

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There is the strong possibility of a Severe Weather Outbreak across the great plains this Saturday and Sunday.  CAPE is high and shear will be high as well.  This possibility comes with a very strong low pressure system that will come out of the desert southwest.

 

It appears there will be a strong Cap during the day on Saturday, which may help to limit thunderstorm initiation.  If the cap breaks on Saturday, severe storms are a high possibility.  It appears Texas to Kansas will be the area of highest risk.

 

Moisture is progged to be sufficient for good storm development and severe weather.  It could be a very interesting weekend of weather!  Thoughts?



#2
NEJeremy

Posted 24 April 2014 - 07:28 PM

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Right now it looks like Saturday will probably be a no show. The main energy is way far back in the Southwest still at 0Z Sunday. The upper level low is back over northern AZ. Tornadoes look unlikely with the moisture return not being enough in time. The LCL's are going to be sky high with dews in the low 60s and highs in the 80s. A few days ago the surface winds were more southeast than what the models have been showing lately with them now showing southerly. Therefore convergence is much lower along the dryline too. If something can pop, it will probably be a beautiful LP high based storm that could produce monster hail.

Sunday looks somewhat more appealing with low topped sup's possible across Kansas and eastern Nebraska. It looks like there could be a couple of waves of severe storms on Sunday as the upper level low slowly ejects out onto the plains. I worry though because there will be almost no cap on Sunday so there could be lots of clouds and storms ruining any instability.

Things looked so much more better a couple of days ago. Saturday would have been a huge day and then on Sunday things could have still been good but further east into Missouri, Iowa, etc. Now Saturday looks like a potential no show and Sunday could be a huge mess of non severe storms that start at 10 oclock in the morning.



#3
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 April 2014 - 07:56 PM

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Right now it looks like Saturday will probably be a no show. The main energy is way far back in the Southwest still at 0Z Sunday. The upper level low is back over northern AZ. Tornadoes look unlikely with the moisture return not being enough in time. The LCL's are going to be sky high with dews in the low 60s and highs in the 80s. A few days ago the surface winds were more southeast than what the models have been showing lately with them now showing southerly. Therefore convergence is much lower along the dryline too. If something can pop, it will probably be a beautiful LP high based storm that could produce monster hail.

Sunday looks somewhat more appealing with low topped sup's possible across Kansas and eastern Nebraska. It looks like there could be a couple of waves of severe storms on Sunday as the upper level low slowly ejects out onto the plains. I worry though because there will be almost no cap on Sunday so there could be lots of clouds and storms ruining any instability.

Things looked so much more better a couple of days ago. Saturday would have been a huge day and then on Sunday things could have still been good but further east into Missouri, Iowa, etc. Now Saturday looks like a potential no show and Sunday could be a huge mess of non severe storms that start at 10 oclock in the morning.

 

Yeah, the Cap will be the big concern on Saturday and the low instability with clouds will be the concern on Sunday.  There will definitely be enough ingredients present to get big storms going, just have to hope the hindrances don't outweigh.

 

I agree that things looked better for this a couple days ago.  Now some of the recent models are bringing dry air in from the southwest.  If that happens I think we get screwed.



#4
NEJeremy

Posted 24 April 2014 - 07:58 PM

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the 0Z runs of the NAM and GFS broke out ZERO precip along the dry line and the GFS was the driest I've seen it for any precip on Sat afternoon and even Sat night. not liking the trends here



#5
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 April 2014 - 08:08 PM

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the 0Z runs of the NAM and GFS broke out ZERO precip along the dry line and the GFS was the driest I've seen it for any precip on Sat afternoon and even Sat night. not liking the trends here

 

Still gives Omaha about 1 inch of rain.  Much less to the west.  I'm not liking the trend either.  This dang thing might end up being a bust.



#6
NEJeremy

Posted 25 April 2014 - 05:21 AM

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Oh, we'll definitely get rain, but the severe weather aspect of this is what is looking questionable. Such a shame too with such nice wind profiles, that the timing of the energy is bad on Saturday and then too many storms on Sunday keeping the threat way down



#7
FarmerRick

Posted 25 April 2014 - 09:59 AM

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SPC just updated the Convective outlook for saturday:

 

day2otlk_1730.gif



#8
Illinois_WX

Posted 25 April 2014 - 10:59 AM

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Hatched area includes Lincoln on Sunday. I think that will be our day, I just want one severe storm from this and I'd be happy!

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#9
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 April 2014 - 12:51 PM

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Man I just don't know how I feel about this weekend.  Saturday has insane instability, but almost nothing to help force development.  There will also be a strong Cap.  Sunday sees much better forcing but very little instability.  We need the forcing and instability to be there on the same day.



#10
TakemetoMontana

Posted 25 April 2014 - 04:03 PM

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So are we just doubting that there will be severe storms or any storms at all. Will we see moisture and just maybe not severe storms

#11
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 April 2014 - 05:16 PM

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So are we just doubting that there will be severe storms or any storms at all. Will we see moisture and just maybe not severe storms

 

I'm doubting thunderstorm development in general.  I think Saturday has the best potential for severe storms, but it's going to be very difficult getting storms to fire.  Sunday would be amazing if the instability was higher.  Sunday still may work out though.  Right now I would shoot for storms on Sunday.  How much sun and instability we see Sunday will be the determining factor as to whether they end up being severe.



#12
NEJeremy

Posted 25 April 2014 - 05:46 PM

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I'm increasingly optimistic about a storm or two firing right near the north central KS/ south central NE border tomorrow around 6pm or so. The cap is at it's weakest then, there's enough pooling of moisture, and the warm front is close by. It might be enough to pop a monster cell or 2. The models have been showing some isolated activity right around that time in the same area for several runs now. Hopefully something can go and if it does would have a good chance of becoming tornadic an hour or 2 before sunrise as the LCL's drop.



#13
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 April 2014 - 05:55 PM

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I'm increasingly optimistic about a storm or two firing right near the north central KS/ south central NE border tomorrow around 6pm or so. The cap is at it's weakest then, there's enough pooling of moisture, and the warm front is close by. It might be enough to pop a monster cell or 2. The models have been showing some isolated activity right around that time in the same area for several runs now. Hopefully something can go and if it does would have a good chance of becoming tornadic an hour or 2 before sunrise as the LCL's drop.

 

Yep, tomorrow definitely has the potential to be big for someone.  If that dang cap can break, someone will get hammered.



#14
NEJeremy

Posted 26 April 2014 - 10:14 AM

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Latest 15Z rapid refresh has a lone supercell blowing up southwest of Lincoln right around 6pm tonight and moving northeast through Lincoln and towards Omaha. Tomorrow looks AMAZING in eastern Nebraska if the 4km NAM is to be believed. Has all kinds of discrete supercells blowing up in the afternoon along the dryline with the warm front draped right across E central Nebraska too. Tomorrow could be dangerous!



#15
clintbeed1993

Posted 26 April 2014 - 10:29 AM

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Latest 15Z rapid refresh has a lone supercell blowing up southwest of Lincoln right around 6pm tonight and moving northeast through Lincoln and towards Omaha. Tomorrow looks AMAZING in eastern Nebraska if the 4km NAM is to be believed. Has all kinds of discrete supercells blowing up in the afternoon along the dryline with the warm front draped right across E central Nebraska too. Tomorrow could be dangerous!

 

I definitely think you guys in Eastern Nebraska have a much better shot at storms.  I'm not too confident in where I'm sitting for this.



#16
gabel23

Posted 26 April 2014 - 12:03 PM

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I'm thinking we might see a high risk tomorrow where the moderate risk is and the moderate risk expanding into our area. Tomorrow could be very interesting; ULL passing over us, dry line and warm front also in our area. Could be a big day tomorrow. 



#17
NEJeremy

Posted 26 April 2014 - 04:50 PM

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Sitting in York, NE looking at nothing on the radar. Pretty disappointed as the runs of the HRRR kept showing a couple of monster cells forming this evening, and I've had plenty of luck with that model being dead on. Will head back to Omaha soon and prepare for what should be a really active day tomorrow!



#18
clintbeed1993

Posted 26 April 2014 - 05:29 PM

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Sitting in York, NE looking at nothing on the radar. Pretty disappointed as the runs of the HRRR kept showing a couple of monster cells forming this evening, and I've had plenty of luck with that model being dead on. Will head back to Omaha soon and prepare for what should be a really active day tomorrow!

 

The cap ruined any chance of good storms this evening.  I had a feeling this would happen.



#19
gabel23

Posted 27 April 2014 - 10:52 AM

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Sun is out and further distablization is under way. Storms are starting to form along the stationary/dry line in south central Nebraska. Storm motion will be flying off to the north/northwest and if storms start to fill in on that line we could see some tornadoes on the eastern edge. Let the waiting game begin, here is an update out of Hastings they brought in extra staff...

 

 



.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE COLD FRONT CURRENT EXTENDS FROM LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT KS.

TOR WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS N OF THE FRONT.

AND WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT THE FRONT IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MORNING TSTMS OVER ERN NEB/KS HAS RAPIDLY
THINNED. THE STATIONARITY OF THE FRONT MEANS A LONGER WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT. WE HAVE ALREADY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP. MUCAPE IS
CURRENTLY 500-1000 J/KG AND FURTHER INSOLATION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 50S MEANS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE 17Z RAP SUGGESTS
CAPE WILL PEAK 1200-2000 J/KG. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS.

BE ALERT FOR ABNORMAL STORM MOVEMENT IN OUR WARNINGS /TO THE N OR
NW/. THESE STORMS WILL BE RACING 45-55 MPH. THAT MEANS YOUR
OPPORTUNITY TO RESPOND TO THREATENING WX WILL BE REDUCED.

ADDITIONAL STAFFING HAS ARRIVED.

PLEASE FOLLOW ALL WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE AND WE WILL
CONT TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE UPDATES VIA THIS PRODUCT AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS...TIME PERMITTING.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOW BE ACTIVATED.


#20
clintbeed1993

Posted 27 April 2014 - 11:59 AM

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Looks like Central Nebraska is going to end up being the best place to be for severe weather today.  Who whouldda thought?  Tornado has been confirmed on the ground out by Minden, heading towards Kearney.



#21
gabel23

Posted 27 April 2014 - 12:28 PM

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Looks like Central Nebraska is going to end up being the best place to be for severe weather today.  Who whouldda thought?  Tornado has been confirmed on the ground out by Minden, heading towards Kearney.

Couple cells just popped up just to your south, would expect them to go warned soon. You might get lucky and see a spin up! That tornado was on the ground just to the east of Central Neb's location in Holdrege. 



#22
gabel23

Posted 27 April 2014 - 12:36 PM

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That lone cell between York and Hastings has a decent shot of going tornado warned. Showing signs of rotation, if it stays together I might jump in the car and catch up to it as it gets closer to my county. 



#23
gabel23

Posted 27 April 2014 - 06:15 PM

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Ended up catching up to that cell and sure enough it went tornado warned about 20 minutes after I got there! I snapped some pics of the massive super cell. I missed out snapping a pic of the elephant trunk funnel cloud, also was two brief touch downs from this super cell. I was surprised to see all the chasers out and about! 

 

 

Attached Files



#24
gabel23

Posted 27 April 2014 - 06:59 PM

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This pic was snapped by some chasers from the Hastings NWS office. Same storm I was on. 

Attached Files



#25
clintbeed1993

Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:47 PM

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I bet the people in Omaha and Lincoln are super pissed.  This was suppose to be their day.



#26
Illinois_WX

Posted 27 April 2014 - 10:03 PM

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I bet the people in Omaha and Lincoln are super pissed.  This was suppose to be their day.

Shafted again. Used to it :/


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#27
Bryan1117

Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:51 AM

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I bet the people in Omaha and Lincoln are super pissed.  This was suppose to be their day.

Yeah its just more of the same story. At least we got a few rumbles of thunder and a good half inch of rain... very exciting stuff compared to the weather of the last 9-10 months around here. :rolleyes:



#28
NEJeremy

Posted 28 April 2014 - 06:13 PM

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I chased the storms in central Nebraska yesterday. I really thought that there was going to be a pretty good outbreak across eastern Nebraska and for the first outlook of Day 1, eastern Nebraska was in a 10% hatched risk. The longer the rain persisted though on Sunday morning, the lower my optimism became. I wanted to chase somewhere and decided against going over into Iowa or down into western Missouri, when I saw the clearing happening back along the dry line and low pressure in southwest Nebraska. Headed west on I-80 and was about 30 minutes too late to see the Upland tornado. Made it to Hastings, when a new cell was forming back to the southeast. This cell was all alone away from the line that had formed along the dry line so I went after this cell. I was paralleling the storm along Hwy 81 heading back north. About 20 miles southwest of York the storm suddenly and rapidly formed a large wall cloud within a couple of minutes. The wall cloud started to rotate slowly but then fell apart. Thereafter though the storm continued to have wall clouds and some rotation. I was in York looking at the storm as it was very near Bradshaw and saw a brief tornado. Stayed with the storm where I saw another tornado about 5 miles west of Osceola. This tornado appeared suddenly out of the rain and disappeared a minute or 2 later. Overall not a bad chase!



#29
gabel23

Posted 01 May 2014 - 07:36 PM

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I chased the storms in central Nebraska yesterday. I really thought that there was going to be a pretty good outbreak across eastern Nebraska and for the first outlook of Day 1, eastern Nebraska was in a 10% hatched risk. The longer the rain persisted though on Sunday morning, the lower my optimism became. I wanted to chase somewhere and decided against going over into Iowa or down into western Missouri, when I saw the clearing happening back along the dry line and low pressure in southwest Nebraska. Headed west on I-80 and was about 30 minutes too late to see the Upland tornado. Made it to Hastings, when a new cell was forming back to the southeast. This cell was all alone away from the line that had formed along the dry line so I went after this cell. I was paralleling the storm along Hwy 81 heading back north. About 20 miles southwest of York the storm suddenly and rapidly formed a large wall cloud within a couple of minutes. The wall cloud started to rotate slowly but then fell apart. Thereafter though the storm continued to have wall clouds and some rotation. I was in York looking at the storm as it was very near Bradshaw and saw a brief tornado. Stayed with the storm where I saw another tornado about 5 miles west of Osceola. This tornado appeared suddenly out of the rain and disappeared a minute or 2 later. Overall not a bad chase!


I had to of ran into you then, were you at the junction of highway 92/39 west of Osceola? That's where I saw the funnel cross.....





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