May 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Getting close to May now. About time to discuss what May might hold for the region.

[Tom]

Frist week of May looks to open way below normal so far....

[Tom]

CFSv2 keeps showing a below normal regime through the next 10-20 days.  No sustained warm ups in site.

[Geos]

EURO sure disagrees with the CFS regarding the week of the 5th. Model builds a heat ridge in the central part of the country with highs approaching 100° from Kansas to Texas.

18z GFS agrees that except for the north Plains the 5th-10th will be very warm in the central US and Southeast.

[Tom]

Ya, I saw that, but I wouldn't be surprised if it corrects itself.  Especially when the MJO is going to be in Phase 1 which is a cold phase across the country from the Rockies east.

 

Edit: It also fits with the LRC when we opened March with record breaking cold.  Now, those extremes won't happen given the season but it will be May's version of this cycle.

[Tom]

00z GFS now correcting itself and digging a major trough over the Great Lakes region as the month opens up and what I'm seeing is the model begin to show what could be a nasty set up for some real chilly air for May standards.  You can see massive ridging developing over Alaska and a resurging shot of cold air coming down from Canada around the 4th/5th.  This fits in line with the LRC when we saw a major arctic outbreak to open up the month of March.

[Tom]

The EPO/WPO were the main teleconnections that drove our winter season's cold this past winter.  I'm wondering if this holds true in May because if it does, this region may be very chilly and stuck in this below normal pattern for quite some time.  The AO/NAO are forecasted to stay negative during the 1st week of May.  The WPO just falls off the charts...

 

I could see the models doing some quirky things in the coming days as they digest the amount blocking and changes in the atmosphere.

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

this is what noaa is saying for may of this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

[Tom]

12z GGEM showing signs of a major cold outbreak for this time of year around the 4th/5th into the Plains, then eastward.  GFS hinting at it, but not as deep, most likely will get colder during this time frame.  Teleconnections setting the table for some serious below normal temps.  Fits the LRC pattern quite well.  Let's see if the 12z Euro shows the same.

[Geos]

It can only get so cold in May. Upper 40s is pretty darn cold for highs.

Teleconnection influences in May side with the summer regime - and that the teleconnections don't mean as much as they do between November - April.

 

I could see May having some chilly days, especially if you live close to one of the Great Lakes.

[Tom]

Sometimes you can get blocking over central Canada in May and especially in the summer months that hooks up and connects with ridging in the Central U.S.  Maybe we see that happen late month to bring sustained warmth.

[Tom]

00z Euro trying to bring upper 70's/low 80's close to N IL next week...Day 8-10

[Tom]

CFSv2 trying to pump a huge ridge around May 8th thru the end of the month.  Maybe this is the flip that we have been waiting for. 

[Tom]

CPC 6-10 Day temp outlook....stubborn cold still wants to hang on.  I'd take a mental snap shot of this cold pool because the JMA model and the Analogs for the upcoming summer (Jun-Aug) are very similar to the placement of this image.

[Geos]

00z Euro trying to bring upper 70's/low 80's close to N IL next week...Day 8-10

 

That would really bring the leaves out on the trees. Probably would need to cut the lawn for the first time then.

[james1976]

how long will this pattern last? im concerned that if it holds through the summer that by next fall/winter it will turn mild and dry, leaving us with a lame winter. that would suck!

[Tom]

Not necessarily James, we saw this same type of pattern back in 1917/18 1918/19, very similar oceanic water temps in the Pacific with the consistent warm pool of waters in NE Pacific and ENSO regions.  I'm not seeing a lame winter next year buddy.  Expect a real fast start and moisture laden storms with a very active subtropical jet stream (from the El Nino).

[james1976]

Not necessarily James, we saw this same type of pattern back in 1917/18 1918/19, very similar oceanic water temps in the Pacific with the consistent warm pool of waters in NE Pacific and ENSO regions.  I'm not seeing a lame winter next year buddy.  Expect a real fast start and moisture laden storms with a very active subtropical jet stream (from the El Nino).

that would be awesome!

[Tom]

Mid May is looking more likely of a pattern flip to above normal conditions for our entire area.  Looks like a good 2-3 week period is in the cards.  CFSv2 is showing this run after run.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Tom, even next week is looking solid on many of the gfs ensembles. Comfortable highs in the 60s look possible anyway.

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles on board with a warming trend around the 10th and beyond.  This should feel real nice after this miserable week in the Lakes/Midwest.  My parents have been visiting Chicago over the past 2 weeks and they have had enough of this weather.  So depressing they say...

[Geos]

Anyone thinking that there may be a May snow event this year?

 

Maybe across the upper Midwest. Things are trending warmer for May now.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Maybe across the upper Midwest. Things are trending warmer for May now.

 

Next week looks warmer and stormier, at least on the GFS Ensembles.  Maybe a nice ring of fire type of setup with parts of the Plains baking with the heat ridge?

[Hawkeye]

Last night's Euro has +20C @ 850mb on day 8, with a generally much milder pattern starting this weekend.  I need to get all my plants hardened off and planted in the next couple weeks go mild weather is what I'm hoping for.

[Tom]

Accuweather's take on this Summer....

 

[Tom]

Looks like there is a system that is taking shape for the Upper Midwest mid week next week that will pump up temps into upper 70's/low 80's.  Wed/Thu look like nice summer like days.

[james1976]

i want THUNDERSTORMS! and big ones at that. DMX talking about that system as well Tom and saying there could be severe potential.

[tim the weatherman]

just looked at my forecast that abc 7 chicago has a 71 in my forecast and it's on tuesday of nextweek.

[Geos]

Accuweather's take on this Summer....

 

I'll take typical with a chance of strong storms!

[FiNsTa]

Accuweather predicted the winter of 2011-2012 to be "extremely brutal", and they also predicted the summer of 2012 to be cool and wet.

[tim the weatherman]

Accuweather predicted the winter of 2011-2012 to be "extremely brutal", and they also predicted the summer of 2012 to be cool and wet.

they were totally wrong about the winter 2011 2012 being the worst because they said the people in the windy city want to move on that one that we had a mild one by the =epo/wpo +ao +nao that caused the jet stream to go zonal flow.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Accuweather predicted the winter of 2011-2012 to be "extremely brutal", and they also predicted the summer of 2012 to be cool and wet.

 

Yeah, Accuweather is extremely hit or miss it seems (slightly more often miss), but I think the smart money says their summer forecast this year actually makes decent sense, so I'll give them credit for that.

[Geos]

Looks like the NAO and AO are forecasted to rise back up as the PNA falls back down.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

47° predicted tomorrow will be a bit chilly. Will feel a lot better once the sun comes back.

[East Dubzz]

43 degrees currently, with a wind chill of 35. Great first day of May and get day to play some baseball

[Tom]

CPC May outlook...this month may turn out about the same as April which ended up near normal, but not quite at ORD (-0.4F).  CPC didn't do a bad job with April's outlook.

[Geos]

Not bad looking... Skilling posted this a bit ago.

 

 

[Geos]

Hopefully this is the real deal warmth in the medium range.

 

[Tom]

I think the models are going to battle amongst each other for week 1-2.  The MJO is forecasted to enter Phase 1,2 and 3 which are all cool phases in the east.  GFS long range has had very cool runs and some near average.  My guess is we see below normal temps in the long range given the pattern we have been in.  Next week when temps spike, enjoy it while you can.  I'll most likely be baking here in the desert southwest when 100's start popping up.  2 or 3 days of warmth here and there sound like that may be the story this month.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think the models are going to battle amongst each other for week 1-2.  The MJO is forecasted to enter Phase 1,2 and 3 which are all cool phases in the east.  GFS long range has had very cool runs and some near average.  My guess is we see below normal temps in the long range given the pattern we have been in.  Next week when temps spike, enjoy it while you can.  I'll most likely be baking here in the desert southwest when 100's start popping up.  2 or 3 days of warmth here and there sound like that may be the story this month.

 

How long are you staying in the Desert Southwest?

[East Dubzz]

Looks like tomorrow is going to end up being pretty nice. Have prom, so was hoping for a nice day. In the 60s and partly cloudy sounds perfect.