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Late Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion


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I thought I would start a thread that can cover medium to long range discussion regarding the back half of winter. 

 

Anything beyond day 7 I would consider medium range and anything after about 14 days - long range. 

 

We've definitely have a cold looking pattern the remainder of January, but what about February? Henry M. today was discussing the possibility of a split flow and milder pattern in February that could start a stormy pattern. With storms that would come off the Pacific and traverse the country, instead of them originating in Canada.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Henry was saying that rising SOI values will help to flattened out the Pacific jet towards February and hopefully drive moisture into the West Coast from top to bottom. The result in this region would be bigger storms sweeping up from the west and southwest.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The system poised to hit the PAC NW end of January and develop over the Plains may be the kick start to that stormier pattern.  The LRC will be reaching its stormiest part of the cycle so it will be interesting if we can get some juicy storms to dump heavy moisture where some have not seen this whole winter.  JB touched on the fact that Feb may turn out to be a country divided from north to south in terms of cold/warm.  He used the winter analogs of '17/'18 and during that winter the severe cold pattern took a break in February except for the northern half of the country.

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Wonder if the changing MJO has anything to do with this sudden change?

 

If the EURO sways this way, then maybe it will be more noteworthy.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Wonder if the changing MJO has anything to do with this sudden change?

 

If the EURO sways this way, then maybe it will be more noteworthy.

The ridge sitting out of the east coast will move into the Eastern U.S. and as a result will shift the PV over to Western Canada, thus dropping the jet stream into the west coast and push the ridge that is currently over the western U.S. into the Aleutian Islands.
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What a difference between the GFS and Euro in the 7-10 Day.  GFS sends a more zonal flow...meanwhile, Euro keeps the cold coming through the extended.  GFS is having its typical problems.  Euro/GGEM have the right idea IMO.

 

GGEM has an intense Clipper ripping through the Midwest in the 9-10 Day and so does the Euro but not as strong.  Keep the Clipper train coming!

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18z GFS still has a pattern change coming after next weekend. I can see it happening if the NE Pacific ridge breaks down and ridge off the East Coast moves westwards. 

 

AO and NAO forecast to go positive now.

 

 

+PNA

 

 

All this would suggest a shift in the pattern with an unsettled West and Midwest, mild SE and East Coast. Most forecasters were saying February would be different and it definitely looks like that right now.

 

Colder areas shift from the Hudson Bay and Great Lakes region towards the Canadian Rockies.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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EURO starting to show a more seasonable pattern as we get past next weekend.

 

Showing the Polar vortex making a brief visit.

 

 

But then the ridge in eastern Pacific starts to shrink with an Aleutian Low building in.

 

 

SE ridge starts to flex it's muscles by Day 10.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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No matter which way you look at it, its going to be a brutal finish to the month.  IMO, the GEFS 500mb map above is off and there will be more of a SW Flow developing end of the month into Feb just like the set up in December with a SE ridge developing in February.  The fun and games tracking big storms will start end of January and through the month of February.  It's going to be a wild finish to winter with 4-6 weeks of exciting times.

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Where did you get these maps?

 

Weatherbell.

---

 

EURO shoving the core of the polar vortex still towards the St. Lawrence River Valley and pretty much recurves it towards the Labrador.

 

 

Total reversal of the mid-continent flow by mid week.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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If the pattern does break, it will be only for a couple days as a transition in the jet stream will evolve and create a SW Flow.  The jet stream will be at its peak in intensity during the early later parts of January and early February.  I don't see a prolong period of warmth in our region. Depending on of course if a storm tracks to our north ushering in warmer temps.  Overall, I expect the main storm track nearby or just to our south.  Early Feb I see another push of colder air.  We are in a pattern that Ol' Man Winter just keeps on giving, don't see that changing anytime soon.

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I don't see where we would go back to our current pattern after this flip occurs. Sure I can see it staying wintry, but it seems once lows get established off the west coast they usually stay awhile. Have to factor in the awakening of the MJO, which is supposed to loop within phases 6-7. Time will tell whether we see anymore Polar air in the Great Lakes.

 

Euro ensembles really shows the demise of the +PNA

 

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geo's, I didn't say we would be locked into the NW Flow we are currently in.  Maybe you misunderstood but what I said is we are going to change the overall jet stream pattern and instead of coming out of the NW, it will be coming out of the SW with systems hitting the PAC NW and bringing much needed moisture into Cali (esp northern half).  I see a lot of storms coming out of CO/4 Corners region beyond 10 days from now.  This is when we will start seeing bigger/juicier storm systems hitting the Plains/Midwest/GL.

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Geo's, I didn't say we would be locked into the NW Flow we are currently in.  Maybe you misunderstood but what I said is we are going to change the overall jet stream pattern and instead of coming out of the NW, it will be coming out of the SW with systems hitting the PAC NW and bringing much needed moisture into Cali (esp northern half).  I see a lot of storms coming out of CO/4 Corners region beyond 10 days from now.  This is when we will start seeing bigger/juicier storm systems hitting the Plains/Midwest/GL.

 

O, I passed over your SW flow comment somehow. my bad.

 

Yes, I can see that type of pattern evolving for February.

 

In fact this is my idea between February 1st and March 10th roughly.

 

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Nice map.  That's exactly what I was thinking and how the pattern looked like in December overall.  I don't see the Polar Vortex making a visit into the GL like this month but pieces may break off of it from time to time after storm systems pass on by.

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MJO, AO, PNA update.

 

MJO spiking into Phase 6 now.

 

 

PNA leveled off, but not for long. Today's value: 1.21

 

 

Looks to cross 0 around the 27th or 28th.

 

And the AO...

 

Went from 2.4 to 1.99 overnight.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z EURO showing the evolution of the low south of Alaska.

 

 

 

By 240 a deep trough is carving out in the West.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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What does the future hold for the plains? Do you all still think it is possible for some storms coming out of the four corners? I dont have access to maps myself so curious as to what you who know quite a bit about weather think? I am hoping maybe a couple of the LRC predicted dates may pan out for us in the middle of the country. What are your thoughts?

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What does the future hold for the plains? Do you all still think it is possible for some storms coming out of the four corners? I dont have access to maps myself so curious as to what you who know quite a bit about weather think? I am hoping maybe a couple of the LRC predicted dates may pan out for us in the middle of the country. What are your thoughts?

 

The Plains - I think the most active weather of the winter will come shortly into February as the models try to carve a trough in the west and string out the jet stream from the southwest to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. I think you'll have some good storms into March also.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS starting to show that active west/east storm track that is giving the Plains much needed moisture that was expected.  February could bring some blockbuster storms across the Plains/Midwest/GL region.  With a -PNA, not sure if the east coast gets too many snow storms in this type of pattern.  Interior locations will probably do better.

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MJO, AO, PNA update.

 

MJO spiking into Phase 6 now.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

 

 

 

MJO is actually entering the Western Hemisphere (7-8) currently, but only the upper level wind signal remains due to less convection over the Western Hemisphere. The strengthening MJO signal you see above is a convective kelvin wave which originated over the west Pacific. As this Kelvin wave shifts east and dies off, the lack of convection over the tropical pacific will cause the currently extended north pacific jet to retreat back to east Asia. This is when the PNA ridge breaks down and the west finally has a chance at a stormier and cooler pattern. Not to mention, a sign of relief hopefully for those in California. MJO looks to reach the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions in 3-4 weeks (mid Feb), at which point I believe the cold will once again focus over the west.

 

While the QBO won't help initiate the MJO anytime soon, we are on the rise as far as climo has to say when it comes to MJO activity. Given the current SST's along the equator, seems as though Maritime Continent and Western Pacific regions may be favored if we see a decent MJO wave develop. This lines up with the what others have been saying about a late winter rally for the west. Only time will tell!

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2empxu0.jpg

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MJO is actually entering the Western Hemisphere (7-8) currently, but only the upper level wind signal remains due to less convection over the Western Hemisphere. The strengthening MJO signal you see above is a convective kelvin wave which originated over the west Pacific. As this Kelvin wave shifts east and dies off, the lack of convection over the tropical pacific will cause the currently extended north pacific jet to retreat back to east Asia. This is when the PNA ridge breaks down and the west finally has a chance at a stormier and cooler pattern. Not to mention, a sign of relief hopefully for those in California. MJO looks to reach the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions in 3-4 weeks (mid Feb), at which point I believe the cold will once again focus over the west.

 

While the QBO won't help initiate the MJO anytime soon, we are on the rise as far as climo has to say when it comes to MJO activity. Given the current SST's along the equator, seems as though Maritime Continent and Western Pacific regions may be favored if we see a decent MJO wave develop. This lines up with the what others have been saying about a late winter rally for the west. Only time will tell!

 

 

I hope that pans out!

 

Joe Bastardi using these analogs for next month.

 

 

 

About the time the PNA drops to 0.

 

 

Troughiness into the West by the 30th.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Teleconnections today.

 

AO: -0.05

NAO: 0.72

PNA: 0.99

 

MJO: Phase 7

 

 

GGEM really warms the mid-section of the country up in 7 days.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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As I alluded to before, if blocking starts to develop over Greenland towards the end of Feb/beginning of March...look out.  March can come rolling in like a Lion.  For the first time this season, CFSv2 has been consistently showing a -NAO developing and this can be the so called "hand off" with respect to teleconnections for the eastern CONUS later on.  If that blocking does in fact develop, I don't see any signs of a warm up.  In fact, more cold and storminess may start targeting the east coast and persistent cold from the eastern half of the nation and the GL region may get involved in a "Clipper Train" and/or pacific storms riding the ridge and sliding SE along the thermal boundary.  In my opinion, if this does develop, winter wont be over in March.

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As I alluded to before, if blocking starts to develop over Greenland towards the end of Feb/beginning of March...look out.  March can come rolling in like a Lion.  For the first time this season, CFSv2 has been consistently showing a -NAO developing and this can be the so called "hand off" with respect to teleconnections for the eastern CONUS later on.  If that blocking does in fact develop, I don't see any signs of a warm up.  In fact, more cold and storminess may start targeting the east coast and persistent cold from the eastern half of the nation and the GL region may get involved in a "Clipper Train" and/or pacific storms riding the ridge and sliding SE along the thermal boundary.  In my opinion, if this does develop, winter wont be over in March.

You do realize this is mainly a western forum right? Saying "winter won't be over in march" when you're referring to the east isn't exactly how I'd word it.

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You do realize this is mainly a western forum right? Saying "winter won't be over in march" when you're referring to the east isn't exactly how I'd word it.

Good thing he was referring to the eastern half of the nation, in a long range topic for the entire US.

 

Besides that, you're the only one from the West who has posted in this topic, so I wouldn't call it a mainly western forum. Overall, heavily western, this topic... Applies to all, including us from the Midwest and GL.

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This forum is for the entire country, hence all the separate regional sub forums.

 

I can see how this pattern does shift towards something more normal and milder about the time frame Larry Cosgrove has been pointing at - the 13th.

 

We've lost the -NAO, the +PNA/ west coast ridge all the way to Alaska, and the AO is now forecasted to rise highly positive. 

 

Both the GFS and EURO are showing a shift of some sort beyond next weekend.

 

GFS goes from this...

 

 

To this...

 

 

The cold anomalies in Canada and the southeast continue to part as Pacific air intrudes into the country further towards the 12th-17th part of the month. Look out in Alaska, below normal pool organizing near the Gulf of Alaska on this run.

 

 

 

Beginning to think this month might end up being bi-polar for areas especially east of the Rockies with the exception of near the Canadian border and up towards New England.

 

I see the way it could stay cold longer, but I can see how the pattern breaks down too.

 

Edit: 0z EURO showing the cross-polar flow getting severed around the 10th or should I say redirected into AK.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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this was one of the things I think Phil was warning about as well that a change in the pattern that was giving us the -epo could mess up the great pattern cold snow wise it appearls Phils concern maybe verifing here.

 

Fixed a few maps above. That cross-polar flow is key at this point. If it wasn't there the eastern US would be warming up as we speak. 

 

By the time it starts shifting; when it does, then met spring will only be two weeks away. Can't really complain the rest of the winter has been very wintry. Of course I can't stand these temperatures near zero anymore, lol.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's been cooling off here for sure. This has been a pretty impressive break in the weather, first a crazy inversion and now it's kind of back to winter. Wondering if we'll get any snow in this transition. Usually when we get a ridge in the Yukon the models will show us getting a decent overrunning event in the 7 day range and then as that time comes the event just keeps getting pushed back. 

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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If you're interested in the outlook for late February and spring, read this detailed take on the upcoming predicted pattern change from the DVN office.

 

 Of significant note, this meteorologist accurately predicted the pattern for this winter back in the autumn. 

 

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST
MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE
MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST
I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS
OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND
SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS
AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY
RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED
LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST
WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN
TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME
CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE
ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM
PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE
IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY
CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN
TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE
EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH
PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH

 

LONG TERM...NICHOLS

 

Looking at the EPO and WPO forecasts, they both flip eventually.

 

 

With the PNA negative and the NAO positive, the change in the teleconnections above will likely help break this cold pattern towards the last 10 days of the month.
 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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If you're interested in the outlook for late February and spring, read this detailed take on the upcoming predicted pattern change from the DVN office.

 

 Of significant note, this meteorologist accurately predicted the pattern for this winter back in the autumn. 

 

 

Looking at the EPO and WPO forecasts, they both flip eventually.

 

 

With the PNA negative and the NAO positive, the change in the teleconnections above will likely help break this cold pattern towards the last 10 days of the month.

 

:wub:  :wub:

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DVN continues with their prediction. 

 

 

GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING AFTER TUESDAY WITH MILDER 
TO MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BY DAY 10...PROBABLY LASTING MUCH LONGER. 
SEE YESTERDAY PM LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION AS TO WHY...THE 
RATE OF WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WILL TAKE 
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO BETTER (GAGE. )STILL FAVORABLE FOR MAJOR 
CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS RUN TO RUN AS THIS SHIFT IN REGIMES OCCURS. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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