Late Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion

[Tom]

March coming in like a Lion this year???  I don't even want to show you how cold the CFSv2 has March this run...you probably won't want to believe it.  It had 1 warm run yesterday, the following runs are down right cold and most runs average out to lots of moisture in the Central/Eastern CONUS and below normal temps.

 

[Geos]

6z CFS showing a torch by this winters standards between the 14th-27th now. Between 4-9° above normal across the eastern US. Warmest near the Ohio River.

 

Latest teleconnection values.

 

AO: 0.51, positive for awhile, then heading slightly negative at least.

NAO: 1.14, staying positive

PNA: -0.72, staying negative, but approach neutral later on.

[Tom]

06z CFS probably has the warmth overdone, a more moderate brand of cold weather maybe slightly above normal will average out late next week into the following week.  The cold will reload to finish off the month.  New JMA came out and Week 3-4 are cold central/east CONUS.

[weatherfan2012]

If you're interested in the outlook for late February and spring, read this detailed take on the upcoming predicted pattern change from the DVN office.

 

 Of significant note, this meteorologist accurately predicted the pattern for this winter back in the autumn. 

 

 

Looking at the EPO and WPO forecasts, they both flip eventually.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-98767400-1391708829.jpg

 

With the PNA negative and the NAO positive, the change in the teleconnections above will likely help break this cold pattern towards the last 10 days of the month.

 

 

DVN continues with their prediction. 

 

    Geos how do you see the El nino that is likey to be forming late this summer and doing fall Phil has been stateing its likey it going to be an unusal forming El nino.Reather or not its a west to centel base one or a centel to east base is very much unclear at this point in time.next winter would likey see us past the solar max and likey the start of the deep fall I would suspect.You and Phil both did great on your forecasts this winter.Was it an easy one to pin down with the many regem changes and lack of singels any where this winter.So really had to look hard and deep to forecast this one.

[Geos]

    Geos how do you see the El nino that is likey to be forming late this summer and doing fall Phil has been stateing its likey it going to be an unusal forming El nino.Reather or not its a west to centel base one or a centel to east base is very much unclear at this point in time.next winter would likey see us past the solar max and likey the start of the deep fall I would suspect.You and Phil both did great on your forecasts this winter.Was it an easy one to pin down with the many regem changes and lack of singels any where this winter.So really had to look hard and deep to forecast this one.

 

If I remember right an El Nino forming during the summer means a warmer than normal autumn in the East. I'm haven't followed what it going on with ENSO, so maybe someone else can chime in. I believe it leads to dryness in the northern tier of the country as you get into autumn, but the mid-Atlantic may swing wet in that type of setup. 

 

That's way off though. Right now I'm concentrating on figuring out what the March and April period will bring. CFS today has flipped almost totally mild now for March. 

Last coldest period February 25 - March 2nd, then you can see below where it goes from there. Looks like New England will be the last to get in on the spring thaw.

 

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

If I remember right an El Nino forming during the summer means a warmer than normal autumn in the East. I'm haven't followed what it going on with ENSO, so maybe someone else can chime in. I believe it leads to dryness in the northern tier of the country as you get into autumn, but the mid-Atlantic may swing wet in that type of setup. 

 

That's way off though. Right now I'm concentrating on figuring out what the March and April period will bring. CFS today has flipped almost totally mild now for March. 

Last coldest period February 25 - March 2nd, then you can see below where it goes from there. Looks like New England will be the last to get in on the spring thaw.

 

 

earlySpring.jpg

Agreed it way to soon to worry about next fall and winter.Alot of times it depends where the El nino sets up.If the El nino is a east to center base it tends to be warmer then normal.But if it sets up as a center to west basen event the winters tend to be cold and very snowey.I'm glad the pattern is breaking.Like Phil said this winter seem to take alot of engery out of alot of people.

[Tom]

Forecasts this far out are to be taken with a grain of salt so having said that, I'll post a comparison JB posted from Dec - Feb 2010 to what current El Nino forecasts are showing for next year.  Kinda similar, ey???

 

 

[Geos]

Had to show the newest EPO forecast this week. Looks to go highly positive in a 2-3 days.

 

 

Teleconnection trends this week off the EURO.

 

AO; positive to neutral

NAO; positive

PNA; negative to neutral

EPO; going highly positive

WPO; negative to positive

[weatherfan2012]

looks winter maybe going out with a bang wenesday night and thrusday if models are to be beleaved.

[Geos]

EURO's take on teleconnetions this morning.

 

AO: + to - to neutral

NAO: + to neutral to slightly +

PNA: neutral to negative

EPO: + to slightly +

WPO: -, rising then wavering within +

 

CFS cooled temps for March, but before then:

 

13-18th: below normal south of I-80. above normal north.

16-21st: above normal

18-23: highly above normal especially south of 43°N

21-26th: above normal

23-28th: below normal NW of a line from Saginaw Bay to Galesburg, IL, + south & east

26-3: below normal NW of a line from Alpena to DBQ, slightly above normal south and east.

28-5th and beyond: below normal.

[Geos]

looks winter maybe going out with a bang wenesday night and thrusday if models are to be beleaved.

 

Well winter within met. winter, definitely next snow in your area will be in March most likely.

[Tom]

CFS has gone from a very cold March to a warmer month (for a few days or so) and now back to it's original cold signal for much of the Lower 48.  Concentrating the cold where it has been cold all season long.  I think the model is now latching on to the riding showing up again near Alaska and I do believe the SSW event will have huge implications as we head into March.  I know JB has been using the analogs of '94 when the pattern flipped in March, but SSW events can be a wildcard and I don't have records of that happening back then.  Not sure if there was a SSW event that occurred back in '94, if it didn't, it makes sense the pattern flipped back then.  This year is different.

 

[East Dubzz]

The thing I wouldn't mind about a below average March... Is that at least it's much better than what we're getting now.

[Tom]

Your right ED, the cold air is more comfortable than the frigid air in we are seeing in February.

[Geos]

CFS back to mild for parts of March.

 

For the Midwest at least:

 

Warm 1st-11th area wide.

Cool west Lakes, warmer east for the 8-16th

Warm north, cool south for the 13-18th.

Then up and down the remaining part of the month.

[Tom]

For those of you who want winter to continue...I have good news for you, March will roar in like a Lion and I'm beginning to see that this wont let up as some believed it would.  Due to the strong SSW event taking place, the PV will be displaced into North America as we head into late Feb and March.  Some of you who follow Wx Bell, Joe D Aleo has been indicating that in low geomagnetic solar cycles SSW events and late season blocking occur in winters like the one's we saw last year.  This year is no different.  For those of us who have been enjoying the cold and snow so far this winter, it will be more of the same as we head into March.  The pattern is locked in this winter and for those in the Midwest/GL/Upper Midwest we will all remember the extreme winter of 2013-14.

[Tom]

From all indications, I'm seeing what could quite possibly become a repeat of March 2013 going forward.  CFS is continuing to illustrate a very cold nation from the Rockies to the east coast.  March is going to open on a wild stretch and there will be a breather maybe around week 2 or 3 but then the cold reloads once again.  I won't be shocked if ORD breaks the all time record of 89.7" of snow.  Same goes for DTX and places in and around the GL/Midwest region.

[Tom]

Latest CFS run for March...that looks brutal for this month...could be some severe late season cold for the 1st 2 weeks of March.

 

[Geos]

That would mean temps averaging -8°- -9°. Average highs in the low 40s, so low to mid 30s for highs around here. Will all depend on how much snow cover is left over.

[East Dubzz]

Honestly, highs in the 30s really don't sound too bad compared to what this winter has been like. Would feel like spring although we'd be well below normal! Lol

[Tom]

I think the 1st 2 weeks of March will have temps in upper10's/20's if it really gets frigid and the PV establishes itself farther south enough.  They key will be how deep the snow cover is obviously but then come mid March we may have a retreat in temps before another late season push of colder air (not nearly as bad as the 1st week in March).  Spring will come, just not sure how soon.  April is looking chilly now as well.  It may be a longggg cool/wet Spring.

[Geos]

Interesting trends are pointing to rerouting of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean around March 7th. The persistent ridge in the northeastern Pacific looks to get under cut by the intensifying jet stream.

 

Clip from the Chicago-Romeoville NWS office discussion today (02/24)

 

 

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IN ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE ALASKA RIDGE LEADING TO A LOWER
AMPLITUDE MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS
THERE MAY BE SOME PHASING OF EXISTING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH
ENERGY FROM THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM. THE DEGREE WITH WHICH
THIS OCCURS IS UP IN THE AIR BUT DO HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER TROUGH COMING DOWN THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM CONNECTION MAY BE KEY IN GETTING ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE PRECIP LATER FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
SHOULD PHASING OCCUR THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER HYBRID
PACIFIC/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH WE HAVE SEEN A FEW TIMES THIS
WINTER. MANY VARIABLES NEED TO PLAY OUT FIRST BUT A SHIFT TO THE
MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS REASONABLE SUPPORTING SOME MODERATING OF TEMPS
BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MDB

 

 

02/28

 

 

03/05, Ridge start to "pinch" away as the jet undercuts further.

 

 

Undercutting complete by the 7th.