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PacNW May 2014 Discussion

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#551
Chris

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:12 AM

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Never said that at all.  

 No, you didn't.  So what mechanism do you think will limit the "solid marine layers in the next few months?"



#552
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:14 AM

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Just for comparison... late spring of 2009 and now:

 

2009:

anomnight.6.22.2009.gif

 

 

2014:

anomnight.5.19.2014.gif

 

 

 

Compare that to the very cold late spring like 2008 (these years tend to have heat spikes and lots of chilly weather in between):

 

anomnight.6.16.2008.gif

 

 

 

Whatever the cause/effect might be... I like where we are now for this summer.    Should be above normal for the next 3-4 months.    



#553
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:16 AM

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 No, you didn't.  So what mechanism do you think will limit the "solid marine layers in the next few months?"

 

 

I have no idea.     And whatever I say will be mocked.    Clearly I don't understand the physics.    

 

But yet I am sure it will happen (a sunnier and warmer than normal summer) and that is all I care about.

 

You guys can argue all summer about the cause and how simple-minded I am being... but in the end the result will likely be the same.  I have a strong feeling that I am going to love this summer... probably as much as I loved 2004, 2009, and 2013.  



#554
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:18 AM

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Also the spring of 2004:

 

anomnight.5.29.2004.gif



#555
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:45 AM

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Maps! Rationalizing!

#556
Deweydog

Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:08 PM

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Don't want to debate chicken and egg.    

 

I will bet there will be very few solid marine layer days in the next few months.    The opposite of 2010 and 2011 when almost every break we had between systems was filled with endless gunk and damp cold.     Pretty sure I will be told that I am wrong but I know it will work out that way.    In other words... when there is a huge area of warm water off our coast then spring/summer weather is much more enjoyable for me personally.     Very similar feeling now to 2004 and 2009... and 2013.    

 

Oh my god...


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#557
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:11 PM

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Oh my god...

I knew that was coming.

Bet I am right about the summer of 2014. Maybe for all the wrong reasons... but I would rather be right about this than understand why. :)

#558
Deweydog

Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:14 PM

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I knew that was coming.

Bet I am right about the summer of 2014. Maybe for all the wrong reasons... but I would rather be right about this than understand why. :)

 

K.


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#559
iFred

Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:24 PM

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Another nice day in Bothell. I'm a big fan of being able to take a walk without sweating.
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#560
brody

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:06 PM

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Well this cant be good, possible 1997 type El Nino brewing in the Pacific

 

http://science.nasa....4/19may_elnino/



#561
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:15 PM

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Well this cant be good, possible 1997 type El Nino brewing in the Pacific

 

http://science.nasa....4/19may_elnino/

 

"We can't yet say for sure that an El Niño will develop in 2014, or how big it might be," cautions Mike McPhaden of NOAA's Pacific Environmental Research Laboratories in Seattle.

 

Direct quote from the article.

 

Anything beyond that is either an educated guess, speculation, or hype. I would assume this article contains more of the last one. :)



#562
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:16 PM

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Well this cant be good, possible 1997 type El Nino brewing in the Pacific

 

http://science.nasa....4/19may_elnino/

 

 

Might be some hype in there... I trust Phil on this one.

 

I hope its not like 1997.     I would rather it fail again and we stay as close to neutral as possible.


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#563
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:16 PM

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Who needs extreme heat when you can have days like this? Great for anyone who enjoys outdoor activities that involve something besides lounging motionlessly in or near water.

 

I had planned to hike after work last Wednesday but it was just too bloody hot. This Wednesday should be much better.



#564
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:19 PM

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Who needs extreme heat when you can have days like this. Great for anyone who enjoys outdoor activities that involve something besides lounging motionlessly in or near water.



We don't lie motionless in water!

And heat is great for variety and gives us a chance to do water activities. If we lived in a place where where we could never do any water activities... that would suck.

Thankfully that is not the case. Silly wishing on your part. Move to Juneau.

#565
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:28 PM

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"We can't yet say for sure that an El Niño will develop in 2014, or how big it might be," cautions Mike McPhaden of NOAA's Pacific Environmental Research Laboratories in Seattle[, ...]
 
Direct quote from the article.


.. Let's be fair. (?)

The "Watch", referred to within the fuller quote. @
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/141-2014-enso-thread/?p=27237
 
... cross-reference.


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#566
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:29 PM

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Had a thunderstorm last couple hours. Still occasionally hear some rumbles in the vicinity but its mostly over. Lightning every 30 seconds during the brunt of the storm an hour ago. Now its every 5 minutes or so.

 

Some pictures of the storm earlier. The main precip core missed me by a few miles but it was close enough where I got some loud thunder out of it.

 

9qdb47.jpg

 

1115t9w.jpg


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.00" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 2
04/02 - Vicinity
04/19 - TSTM
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.00" (02/28/2012), 8.00" (01/01/2011)
 
T'storm Days: 2 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#567
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:29 PM

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We don't lie motionless in water!

And heat is great for variety and gives us a chance to do water activities. If we lived in a place where where we could never do any water activities... that would suck.

Thankfully that is not the case. Silly wishing on your part. Move to Juneau.

 

Actually we live in a great climate overall for people who don't like extreme heat. Western Washington has one of the coolest summer time climates in the lower 48. I don't need to wish. :)



#568
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:31 PM

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.. I trust Phil on this one.

 

.. I'll go the other way. Whatever way, that is. 


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#569
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:34 PM

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Actually we live in a great climate overall for people who don't like extreme heat. Western Washington has one of the coolest summer time climates in the lower 48. I don't need to wish. :)

 

 

Right.

 

Wishing for highs in the mid to upper 60s all summer is silly in our climate.

 

The average high in Portland is around 80 and in Seattle the average high is in the upper 70s in the middle of summer.   And there will be many days above the average each summer.    

 

This is typical May weather... not July or August weather.      Move to Juneau if you want 60s all summer.   Not going to happen here.  



#570
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:37 PM

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Right.

 

Wishing for highs in the mid to upper 60s all summer is silly in our climate.

 

Exaggerating a bit much?  :D

 

And I've heard from a bunch of other people around the country that they too prefer PNW summers. 


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.00" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 2
04/02 - Vicinity
04/19 - TSTM
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.00" (02/28/2012), 8.00" (01/01/2011)
 
T'storm Days: 2 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#571
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:48 PM

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Exaggerating a bit much?  :D

 

And I've heard from a bunch of other people around the country that they too prefer PNW summers. 

 

 

I think summer is great as well in the PNW... even an average summer is plenty warm for water activities.   Even a below normal summer still has many days for water activities.

 

He is wishing for 10-15 degrees below our climate normal the entire summer.     That is not going to happen and its silly to talk about.   


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#572
Deweydog

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:53 PM

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Mommy, why doesn't everyone feel exactly the same about everything???


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#573
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 03:57 PM

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Alright, well I've had my fun for the afternoon. Time for some homework!


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#574
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 04:06 PM

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Alright, well I've had my fun for the afternoon. Time for some homework!

I wish it could be 60 all winter. Seems like it could happen here. About as likely as 65 all summer. What else can talk about?

Thrilling topic Jesse. Going to be a fun summer for me. :)

#575
Phil

Posted 19 May 2014 - 04:14 PM

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Well this cant be good, possible 1997 type El Nino brewing in the Pacific

http://science.nasa....4/19may_elnino/

NASA should stick to forecasting the Cosmos instead of meddling in ENSO, which they obviously know nothing about.

They predicted a Super Niño for 2011-12, and in 2006-07.

2006-07:

SUPER EL NINO IN 2006-2007? We suggest that an El Nino is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a ‘super El Niño’, rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the ‘El Nino of the century’ as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years (Fig. 1 of Fedorov and Philander 2000). Further, we argue that global warming causes an increase of such ‘super El Ninos’. Our rationale is based on interpretation of dominant mechanisms in the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, examination of historical SST data, and observed Pacific Ocean SST anomalies in February 2006.

2011-12:

JUL2011
Sometimes it is interesting to make a bet that looks like it is high risk, but really isn’t. Such a bet can be offered at this point. The NOAA web pages giving weekly ENSO updates predict a return to ENSO–neutral conditions by mid–summer with some models suggesting a modest El Nino to follow. We have been checking these forecasts weekly for the past several years, and have noted that the models almost invariably are biased toward weak changes. Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.


They literally have a 0% track record in climate science.
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#576
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 04:42 PM

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NASA should stick to forecasting the Cosmos instead of meddling in ENSO, which they obviously know nothing about.

They predicted a Super Niño for 2011-12, and in 2006-07.


They literally have a 0% track record in climate science.


.. I seem to remember the term "laughable" being thrown around by you a while back and if where regarding a different theme. Perhaps by a "parallel" set of criteria (more basic.), it might apply here, too.


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#577
Phil

Posted 19 May 2014 - 04:49 PM

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.. I seem to remember the term "laughable" being thrown around by you a while back and if where regarding a different theme. Perhaps by a "parallel" set of criteria (more basic.), it might apply here, too.


Can you be a bit more specific please?

#578
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 05:32 PM

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.. yeh. A bit, I guess. (I thought what I'd said had been fairly plain leastwise.)

 

Perhaps before submitting something, and where also being ready to use words like "laughable" where regarding input by others, whether here or elsewhere, you might try looking at whatever you do, through eyes other than your own. In the case above, working to see beforehand what might be appreciable, as "laughable", in and where considering it. 

 

More clear. ?


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#579
Phil

Posted 19 May 2014 - 05:55 PM

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.. yeh. A bit, I guess. (I thought what I'd said had been fairly plain leastwise.)

Perhaps before submitting something, and where also being ready to use words like "laughable" where regarding input by others, whether here or elsewhere, you might try looking at whatever you do, through eyes other than your own. In the case above, working to see beforehand what might be appreciable, as "laughable", in and where considering it.

More clear. ?


If I think something is "laughable", I'm going to go out and say it. If you're asking for more evidence (put forth by myself) before I make a claim, I'll certainly do so.

There are a lot of "laughable" claims being made today in the field of climate science..I'm sure that most of the board would agree with me there.

#580
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 06:53 PM

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.. Enjoy.
 

NASA ... literally ha[s] a 0% track record in climate science.

 
But again, and if only inferred more above (?), I'd think twice, before posting something like this quoted, isolated here, more specific, just above.
 
Which "of course" presumes that you've read "literally" "everything" that they've both predicted, or even said, more "Climate Science" related or focused.  (Yes. / No. ?)
 

If I think something is "laughable", I'm going to go out and say it.

Already know this. Hence my comment above.
 

... If you're asking for more evidence (put forth by myself) before I make a claim, I'll certainly [provide it].

I'll be watching.


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#581
weatherfan2012

Posted 19 May 2014 - 06:58 PM

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NASA should stick to forecasting the Cosmos instead of meddling in ENSO, which they obviously know nothing about.

They predicted a Super Niño for 2011-12, and in 2006-07.

2006-07:

2011-12:


They literally have a 0% track record in climate science.

there enso forecasts certainly can't be taken to seriously when they keep forecasting something that has not verified in over about 15 years.

#582
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:20 PM

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There are a lot of "laughable" claims being made today in the field of climate science..I'm sure that most of the board would agree with me there.


.. This a statistical claim of yours then. ?

I've said before, I don't like the more pronounced attitude "put forth" connected to the idea; wherever, whenever, or by whomever. Certainly not, minus whatever more specific reasoning being attached to whatever might warrant it, according to whomever; .. and where all this [then only] implication, works only, to muddy up the whatever more academic views possible minus it. .. Is "this" more clear for you. ?


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#583
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:04 PM

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Very colorful sky at our house this evening for about 5 minutes right at sunset...

 

10329224_639097116158500_261211389733719



#584
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:54 PM

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You can see part of the illumination on this web cam site... watch the loop for the last hour.   We are to the east and therefore to the right of this image.    The loops reset at dawn tomorrow.

 

http://www.northbend...om/wxwebcam.php



#585
iFred

Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:55 PM

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Another nice and calm evening. A slight breeze that makes sitting on the deck enjoyable.

On the topic of summer, I am hoping to see spring finish with some more cool days. I honestly want to see a June day in the fifties (I would be amazed to see a sub 60 day in July or August) but I also would like to see a mild and dry Summer.

#586
snow_wizard

Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:56 PM

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.. This a statistical claim of yours then. ?

I've said before, I don't like the more pronounced attitude "put forth" connected to the idea; wherever, whenever, or by whomever. Certainly not, minus whatever more specific reasoning being attached to whatever might warrant it, according to whomever; .. and where all this [then only] implication, works only, to muddy up the whatever more academic views possible minus it. .. Is "this" more clear for you. ?

 

:huh:

 

This is totally over my head.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#587
snow_wizard

Posted 19 May 2014 - 09:58 PM

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Another nice and calm evening. A slight breeze that makes sitting on the deck enjoyable.

On the topic of summer, I am hoping to see spring finish with some more cool days. I honestly want to see a June day in the fifties (I would be amazed to see a sub 60 day in July or August) but I also would like to see a mild and dry Summer.

 

 

I remember one incredibly cool August in the 90s that had a lot of days in the 60s and probably a few 50s.  I'll have to look at my records for that one.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#588
snow_wizard

Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:01 PM

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Exaggerating a bit much?  :D

 

And I've heard from a bunch of other people around the country that they too prefer PNW summers. 

 

 

Our summers are the absolute best.  This is my climate of choice for mid May through October.  Too bad the winters aren't better and the springs are horrible.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#589
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:02 PM

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:huh:
 
.... totally over my head.

 
All things (or whichever.) more "laughable", that people other than cousin "Phil" have to say. ?
 
There's a "context" involved. (?)


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#590
snow_wizard

Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:04 PM

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I think summer is great as well in the PNW... even an average summer is plenty warm for water activities.   Even a below normal summer still has many days for water activities.

 

He is wishing for 10-15 degrees below our climate normal the entire summer.     That is not going to happen and its silly to talk about.   

 

The summers of 1954 and 1955 were about as close to that as we will ever get I bet.  That was such a ridiculously cold period for us.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#591
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:09 PM

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Steve Pierce says we will have a hot summer....


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#592
snow_wizard

Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:21 PM

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Steve Pierce says we will have a hot summer....


:o

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#593
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 10:44 PM

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Steve Pierce says we will have a hot summer....

 

I wonder whose official forecast he's piggybacking off of for this one.



#594
Jesse

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:05 PM

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Looks like the Euro just jumped in with the GFS camp regarding the holiday weekend.

#595
BLI snowman

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:19 PM

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I remember one incredibly cool August in the 90s that had a lot of days in the 60s and probably a few 50s.  I'll have to look at my records for that one.

 

August 1995 was pretty chilly. 2000 was the last really cool one.



#596
richard mann

Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:37 PM

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I wonder whose official forecast he's piggybacking off of for this one.

 

Member here, Right. ? (Used to be at "Western".)

 

What tells you that what he's projected isn't more his own work up. ?


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#597
TT-SEA

Posted 20 May 2014 - 05:36 AM

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Sunrise over Mt. Si this morning...

 

Untitled.jpg



#598
TheBigOne

Posted 20 May 2014 - 06:05 AM

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So who gets better summers?  Olympia or London,Reading,Brighton UK areas as both have similar climates surrounded by bodies of water and both have mild winters yet rainfall never gets really heavy which is why Seattle floods a lot when strong storms come thru.

 

So who gets the better summers in terms of sunshine?  Olympia Washington or anywhere in Southern Britain?    

 

Believe it or not Southern Britain has been up to 100F before and gets what's called Spanish Plumes which air from Spain will collide with a cold front coming from the north and moisture from the SW creating severe thunderstorms that wreck havoc and sometimes flood The Underground rail.



#599
Jesse

Posted 20 May 2014 - 06:26 AM

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Low of 46 out here. 53 at PDX.

#600
Jesse

Posted 20 May 2014 - 06:33 AM

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August 1995 was pretty chilly. 2000 was the last really cool one.

 

We are way way overdue for a cool August.