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Clippers/LES January 20th-January 23rd


Scott26

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Grahpic has me almost borderline with 6-8 inches. It will be interesting how this evolves tonight. I am hoping ORD can squeeze at least 2-3 inches from sypnotic event and some lake enhancement but band might be to east.

22Z RAP slams ORD with a heavy band of LES snow for 3-4 hours. If that ends up occurring ORD will do just fine. Dominic, you shouldn't be worried you're in one of the best spots for this event. At this time you're definitely looking good for 6 plus especially if  you can get the band to park over you.

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WGN's RPM has the lake plume sitting ORD also for a few hours and then shifts towards the city and keeps pounding central/southern Cook county till 1:00pm tomorrow.  It never ends up going into IN.  If that's a trend, I think LOT may pull some Lake Snow Watches in NW IN.

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WGN's RPM has the lake plume shitting ORD also for a few hours and then shifts towards the city and keeps pounding central/southern Cook county till 1:00pm tomorrow.  It never ends up going into IN.  If that's a trend, I think LOT may pull some Lake Snow Watches in NW IN.

Is that a new form of precip lol

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Friend's dad has over 2 inches in Kenosha, WI so far and snowing pretty good.

 

That's a little high. I'd say about an inch there as I drove through at 5pm. He must be measuring where it is drifting.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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LOT update. If you're by Midway, you're sitting pretty. If you're by O'Hare, enjoy a little new layer.

 

FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...ORD AND MDW ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ONE

HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 03Z. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE

AT ORD AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. FOR

MDW...AN ADDITIONAL AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES IS FAVORED...WITH THE

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 6...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 12 INCHES. GYY IS

SIMILAR TO MDW FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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Geo's, you may even get in on some lake enhancement and it looks like one of those bands is about to hit your area.  Flake size over here has increased in size over the last 10-15 minutes.  I just took a trip to the store and its snowing so nicely outside right now and the roads are snow covered with the wind whipping up small ground blizzards.

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Everything is covered here definitely. Somewhat easy to spot the linear patterns over the lake and one right on the shoreline east of here.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Drove home from Madison from 6-8 pm and toward the end the roads were getting really bad, and the wind made visibility low. Haven't been able to track the models a ton today for the LES potential but have been hearing about it. Any chance Buffalo Grove can get under this band and squeeze out a couple inches?

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Bill Bellis just showed his future cast and it had the band sitting in N Cook county through about 1:00am!  Band definitely farther west than earlier forecasted.  I wouldn't be surprised if ORD picked up 4" or more from this.  It's snowing gang busters downtown right now, less than 1/4 mile visibility.

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Officially above average for the season now. 44.3" to date.

 

New disco from LOT.

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
905 PM CST

WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE COUNTY AND
REORIENTING THE FORECAST SNOW MAXIMA SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWEST...INCLUDING MORE OF EASTERN COOK COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SETUP ALREADY HAS TAKEN SHAPE WITH -22C AIR AT 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING PROGRESSING QUICKLY DOWN THE LAKE. SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY UNFOCUSED...ARE MOVING INTO THE NE IL AND THE LAKE
COUNTY IN SHORE AT THIS HOUR...WHILE A WELL-DEFINED BAND IS SEEN ON
THE MKE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR OVER MID-LAKE...WITH UP TO 30 DBZ
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW. THE TREND ON THIS BAND HAS BEEN
TO EVOLVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST AND TRAJECTORIES WOULD INDICATE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY SHORE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY SHORE BY
10-11 PM.

OBSERVATIONS ON LAND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD BETTER
CONVERGENCE...LIKE THERE PRESUMABLY IS OVER THE LAKE...BUT IS STILL
SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED ON SHORE. SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ON
HOW LONG THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TREND TO GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS MORE SO INTO COOK COUNTY BY THE MIDDLE
OF OVERNIGHT. BUT EVEN SO WITH THE RADAR TRENDS AND THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY MENTIONED IN PREV AFD STILL SEEN ON LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...FEEL THAT A QUICK BURST OF THREE PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY
COULD BE SEEN IN SOUTHEAST LAKE.

AS FOR EASTERN COOK COUNTY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DIRECTED INTO CHICAGO FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IF NOT THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT OF
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS HAS LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT NOT BY MUCH SIMPLY DUE TO THE WIDTH OF THE BAND BEING
VERY NARROW AND UNDULATIONS REMAINING LIKELY.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WATCH FOR PORTER COUNTY AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR EAST THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL MOVE TUESDAY.

AS FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE INTO
OVERNIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND AN INCH.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Mike Caplans post just now on Facebook:

 

"Latest high resolution models have shifted the "blast zone" for heaviest lake-effect snow to the west. City of Chicago right in the crosshairs for a possible white nightmare. Consequently a Lake Effect snow advisory has been hoisted for Lake county IL. Main risk area THERE would be southeast 1/3 or so of the county. i.e. Deerfield would get much more than Fox Lake. But if trends are correct, eastern Cook county and parts of the city will get buried. Stay with ABC for the latest. LES is notoriously tricky and even slight shifts in trajectory can mean the difference between one community getting next to nothing and a nearby one getting a foot."

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Thinking 10-12" within 5-6 miles of the lake from Highwood southwards to the Skyway tonight.

 

Epic winter locally.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Mike Caplans post just now on Facebook:

 

"Latest high resolution models have shifted the "blast zone" for heaviest lake-effect snow to the west. City of Chicago right in the crosshairs for a possible white nightmare. Consequently a Lake Effect snow advisory has been hoisted for Lake county IL. Main risk area THERE would be southeast 1/3 or so of the county. i.e. Deerfield would get much more than Fox Lake. But if trends are correct, eastern Cook county and parts of the city will get buried. Stay with ABC for the latest. LES is notoriously tricky and even slight shifts in trajectory can mean the difference between one community getting next to nothing and a nearby one getting a foot."

Hmm...as much as I love snow, I'm digging the term "White Nightmare." Almost sounds like a name for a pro wrestler.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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That's a great Disco from LOT!  I had a feeling they would mention SE Lake County would get in on the action.  Eastern Du Page is getting in on the action now as well.

 

ChiTownWx, I think BG will pick up some decent snow out of this band.  Maybe a few inches if this band sets up just right.

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