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Global Warming

climate change solar co2 agw ice age

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#301
snow_wizard

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:31 PM

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I'm not forgetting about the solar aspect, I just don't it's going to have much of an impact on global temps. The next solar minimum will be a small, short term blip down in a climate that has been, and will continue to steadily warm over the long term.

 

And globally, the mid 80s weren't cold at all compared to what we saw pre-1980. 

 

 

The point was there is usually a strong reversal of global temps after a very strong Nino.  That alone should easily cool the globe to pre 2014 levels for a while at least.  The mid 1980s were pretty cold.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#302
James Jones

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:35 PM

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I think that's pretty silly. Regardless of the next century's trend, it's not going to be a runaway process and we'll see some peaks and valleys and ENSO of course plays a big part in that. We will certainly see another major La Nina event in the future that will significantly cool things for a year or two.

 

It's easy to forget that the 20th century warming saw a complete halt and in some multi-year instances a reversal of course between 1950 and 1980. It's likely that that same scenario will play out again to some extent at some point during the 21st century. It wouldn't take much to get to 2012 level temperatures again in our lifetimes.

We'll see.

 

And yeah, there will be relatively long stretches of years where global temps will stagnate - we just came out of one. 



#303
Phil

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:38 PM

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I'm not forgetting about the solar aspect, I just don't it's going to have much of an impact on global temps. The next solar minimum will be a small, short term blip down in a climate that has been, and will continue to steadily warm over the long term.

And globally, the mid 80s weren't cold at all compared to what we saw pre-1980.


Steadily warming, eh? Well, let's look at some DO^18 isotope ratios, to gauge the significance of the modern warming (ice core proxies for hemispheric temperatures based on the differential weight ratios, just FYI).

Here's the instrumental record spliced into the proxy data. Looks like temperatures today are the warmest in ~1000 years, which isn't very noteworthy:

95CEBCBA-7E0B-404C-BD53-64D8EF4B3E7F_zps

Zooming out a bit, note how insignificant even the most prolific Holocene temperature variations are compared to those within the ice age:

94724F0B-0D91-452A-BF68-BEFC303A4F11_zps

Zooming out a bit farther, note the cyclical nature of the ice age cycles, that arise via differences in orbital eccentricity, as well as obliquity and precession:

E014803C-B58E-4E94-A01F-5EC91A485DD5_zps

Now, for perspective, zooming even father out, looking at the transition into the Pleistocene:

070C01B7-536E-4358-835B-FDE6BEC2C679_zps

Humans are just ignorant crybabies sometimes. There's nothing unusual of unprecedented about today's climate.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#304
BLI snowman

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:39 PM

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The point was there is usually a strong reversal of global temps after a very strong Nino.  That alone should easily cool the globe to pre 2014 levels for a while at least.  The mid 1980s were pretty cold.

 

1985 was cooler globally than 1941 and 1993 was cooler than 1944. 

 

We're always going to see individual outliers going forward. The past couple years have been very anomalous and fed by a major El Nino and globally warm SSTs. Clearly a unique combination. It seems probable that even with a steadily warming baseline, an outlier year 40 or 50 years from now could be colder than these recent warm outliers. 



#305
Phil

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:41 PM

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The surface datasets tell a different story.

But anyway, I shouldn't have started this. It's a tired discussion that never leads to anything productive.


The satellite data measures a larger portion of the atmosphere, where GHG-induced warming should be amplified, if anything, given thermodynamic/radiative transfer processes in the upper troposphere.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#306
ShawniganLake

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:45 PM

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cfsr_t2m_2005.png



#307
Phil

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:45 PM

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In the very recent past, the global climate has warmed and cooled by 6-10 degrees centigrade very rapidly (in a decade or less). Here we humans are whining about less than one degree centigrade over 150yrs, oblivious to what could (and eventually will) happen again.

http://science.scien...nt/321/5889/680

The younger dryas was one of dozens rapid climate excursions to occur in the recent past.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#308
Phil

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:56 PM

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Also, orbitally speaking, we're right at the "stage" where every interglacial appears to terminate. Eccentricity maximum, rapidly falling obliquity from geographic north, and precession just past perihelion.

It's almost ice time again.

632E5DD5-D5DE-4124-AC7B-ACB8022781FB_zps

895746CA-10D6-4684-8C12-933B172952D0_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#309
snow_wizard

Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:58 PM

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In the very recent past, the global climate has warmed and cooled by 6-10 degrees centigrade very rapidly (in a decade or less). Here we humans are whining about less than one degree centigrade over 150yrs, oblivious to what could (and eventually will) happen again.

http://science.scien...nt/321/5889/680

The younger dryas was one of dozens rapid climate excursions to occur in the recent past.

 

The global warming freaks have no concept of natural cycles.  An even better example is how sea level has risen over 50 feet since the last ice age, and yet now we have alarm bells going off about a 1 inch rise! :lol:


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#310
Phil

Posted 29 September 2016 - 11:00 PM

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The global warming freaks have no concept of natural cycles. An even better example is how sea level has risen over 50 feet since the last ice age, and yet now we have alarm bells going off about a 1 inch rise! :lol:


Sea levels have risen between 350-400ft since the end of the last ice age, actually, with periods where it was rising 7-10ft per century. After the termination of the younger dryas, it rose up to one foot per year.

http://noc.ac.uk/new...nd-last-ice-age

And yeah, we're a bunch of crybabies. The global climate is just about perfect right now. It can only get worse from here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#311
TT-SEA

Posted 03 October 2016 - 07:45 PM

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New post from Cliff on CO2 levels...

 

http://cliffmass.blo...m-you-will.html



#312
Phil

Posted 03 October 2016 - 08:10 PM

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CO^2 at 400ppm? Yikes, sounds like a global scale catastrophe of unprecedented proportions, especially considering the theorized 3.1C/per doubling from the IPCC. That'd be a warming of 30C by 4000ppm. 😖

Except for the fact CO^2 and temperature are negatively correlated over geologic time..seems like solid science.

910D1E82-594F-4D79-A52E-9DC856DA6F0C_zps

0BB03790-5C7E-4B55-9378-CDF091C8BD9F_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#313
TT-SEA

Posted 03 October 2016 - 08:14 PM

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CO^2 at 400ppm? Yikes, sounds like a global scale catastrophe of unprecedented proportions, especially considering the theorized 3.1C/per doubling from the IPCC. That'd be a warming of 30C by 4000ppm.

Except for the fact CO^2 and temperature are negatively correlated over geologic time..seems like solid science.


 

 

 

Snowball Earth at 12,000ppm!   


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#314
Phil

Posted 03 October 2016 - 08:20 PM

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This is the trend I'm more worried about, in regards to our long term future on this planet. We've got ~100yrs of fossil fuels left to burn. Hopefully these guys have their science right (positive feedback loops and all), and it delays the inevitable long enough for us to find a solution and/or plan ahead.

This stable climate won't last forever.

E9692480-5A44-4EEF-9E28-0CDBA6D75351_zps

A074EBBE-60B7-4ABD-9A37-8C3195D5DC57_zps

0DA4B7A3-050E-4B00-B73F-E339C511BB56_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#315
Phil

Posted 03 October 2016 - 08:26 PM

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Snowball Earth at 12,000ppm!


The Sun was ~25-30% dimmer then, assuming our physical understanding of stars is adequate (big question). If this is true, then if anything, Earth was warmer than it should have been, all else considered.

It's usually referred to as the "faint sun paradox".
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#316
Phil

Posted 03 October 2016 - 08:40 PM

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Ed Berry created a very interesting graphic to show just how insignificant the recent small increase in CO2 really is. He is brilliant when it comes to understanding the atmosphere and he thinks this all a bunch of BS.


There's a measurable radiative forcing from CO^2. I think it's more likely (given the paleoclimate data and satellite derived spectrography) that the feedback aggregate is moderately to strongly negative. Most of the predicted warming arises via positive, self-reinforcing feedback loops. In a way it's quite self defeating.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#317
Andie

Posted 05 October 2016 - 05:19 PM

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The sun has gone spotless for the 4 th time this year. That's got to indicate some serious cooling here.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#318
richard mann

Posted 05 October 2016 - 05:42 PM

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The sun has gone spotless for the 4th time this year. That's got to indicate some serious cooling here.

 

.. Likely you've meant "... got to be indicative of the idea, that there has been."
 
— But you haven't said where.
 
— This nor, to whom, or with what other reasoning set juxtaposed or along side, what you've suggested here above. 
 
... Perhaps you could re-phrase what you've suggested, differently—for better clarity. 
 
".. got to", being the chief idea that I'm having trouble with, minus the better clarity that I've suggested "here".


---twitter_logo-t12.png

#319
Tom

Posted 20 October 2016 - 08:36 PM

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I thought I'd share this article from a NASA study regarding Mass Gains of Ice on the Antarctic Ice Sheet:

 

http://www.nasa.gov/...ter-than-losses



#320
weatherfan2012

Posted 29 October 2016 - 10:49 AM

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Robert filex posted a great Article about the difference between global warming and cooling https://iceagenow.in...global-cooling/

#321
Andie

Posted 30 October 2016 - 07:35 AM

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Summary of an article on ice age intervals and CO2 being trapped and released. Cardiff Univ.

http://www.futurity....medium=webfeeds
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#322
weatherfan2012

Posted 17 November 2016 - 10:35 PM

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Robert filex is on coast to coast tonight on now actually https://iceagenow.in...ar-coast-coast/

#323
weatherfan2012

Posted 21 November 2016 - 07:47 PM

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Robert filex on coast to coast from last Thursday night https://youtu.be/i3YgumJ3cpA

#324
Andie

Posted 27 November 2016 - 08:47 AM

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MIT Climatologist disagrees with US winter forecast.

Early Cold Winter.

http://www.bloomberg...d-winter-in-u-s
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#325
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 December 2016 - 01:53 PM

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Interesting article that Robert posted on his blog https://www.iceageno...al-temperatures

#326
Andie

Posted 21 May 2017 - 02:17 PM

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Mini ice age here to stay

Attached File  IMG_2459.JPG   174.11KB   0 downloads
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.





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