(.. No sub-heading for "the Tropics" set up—as yet, leastwise—Fred. So I posted this here.)
Relative to the both broader scope and longer ranging colder air mass movement and distribution projections that I post here about twice per month, and where also considering my longtime interest with and study of broader colder air mass and how it contributes to the weather more in general, .. one idea that I've noted, where looking more at the tropics, and with this idea at things taking place more during the main more active period—note for tropical "disturbances" where looking more at the northern hemisphere, and that I've thought to mention here, .. is that more specifically where and when main colder air mass (Only in fact more cool during the period.) is, per my different projects in the process of general regress more northward as a whole—following a period of general expansion, or movement and spread more southward, each daily more, .. different disturbances are far more likely to develop.
— This, with there quite often beginning to do so very soon after main colder air has begun to recede northward, and with also fairly often, whatever more initial activity being caused / allowed to develop further, with colder air's continued further regress.
.. With this general premise outlined here above, note with checking the animation that I've included access to here below, set along together with also the most recent cold air mass focused projection of mine submitted quoted tacked in just below it, .. that what I've suggested more broadly here above, has in fact turned out to have been the case where looking at the initial tropical disturbance this year.
14051400z 14052800z usrfan
— In this case, a Pacific sector hurricane. And if of more incidental note here, of course in fact preceding the main initial date marking the beginning of "hurricane season" by a few days.
Note more specifically, with checking the main animation above, that with colder air's recession daily more northward as I'd projected, and, in this case a set of main low-centers have formed—if with the earlier season five days into colder air's general recession—beginning on the 20th of May, … that following this storms more initial development, one of of a pair of two lows, with moving more northward and somewhat more westward over the next seven days, has in fact been what developed more significantly, into again, this year's initial hurricane. — Initially classified as such on the morning of the 24th.
— This with this hurricane earlier today leastwise, appearing to have been stifled somewhat where regarding any, more free, further movement north, or development, with its having met with some residual cold having been steered south down along the greater Coast.
.. Let me just add to this idea more general here above, that in fact this general recession of colder air had been the case where considering, both, "hurricane Katrina" (At peak pretty much as cold had reached its fullest recession.), together with also "hurricane Rita", that followed it about a month later (At peak at about two and half days previous to colder air's fullest recession.) ….