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June 2014 Observations and Discussion


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Only 2 days away from met. summer. Discuss.

 

Looks like Sunday will be very warm to start off the month with storms possible.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Models starting to trend cooler and below normal by next Friday near the Lakes.  Fits in with the MJO in Phase 2. 

 

On a brighter note, this weekend looks absolutely superb!  Hoping the Hawks can pull it off and win this series against the Kings!

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MJO Phase 2 could mean cool, but for June has a fair to poor significance correlation for the local area.

 

 

Looks like seasonable temps all next week in my forecast. T-storms chances aren't that great until Sunday night.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CFSv2 showing a cooler situation for June...from June 5th-15th look very cool in our region.

As I recall, that same model showed May to be significantly cooler than normal, look how that turned out. You always try to work cold weather in every post you make, even in June LOL

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@ FiNsTa, I think your brain is programmed to catch anything that has to do with "cold" "cool", etc buddy, go back and see my posts about May turning out to be the 1st above normal month since last November!  On top of that, I have expressed my warmth opinions to close out May.  Get with the program.

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Prob because BN has been the theme for a awhile now..  why would anyone deviate from their long range forecast anymore than that until sustained above normal temps waterfall down their hanging brain.   

 

about 1/3 the days this spring there were above avg high temps..  Sure would be nice if Summer follows Spring and ideally Mays suit...  Few warm days and moisture action squeezed between a majority of BN days.

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Prob because BN has been the theme for a awhile now..  why would anyone deviate from their long range forecast anymore than that until sustained above normal temps waterfall down their hanging brain.   

 

about 1/3 the days this spring there were above avg high temps..  Sure would be nice if Summer follows Spring and ideally Mays suit...  Few warm days and moisture action squeezed between a majority of BN days.

 

Amen to that wish, it looks to be off to a solid start, some warm days the first week of June, but looks like the warm days will likely be stormy (ie. Sunday and Monday).  However, the last storm chances this week, while successful on the whole in S Wisconsin, pretty much left my locale high and dry.

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CFSv2 showing a cooler situation for June...from June 5th-15th look very cool in our region.

 

-1° - -1.5°C is nothing hardly. Now if the green shades showed up it would be significant. 

 

Skilling said tonight shoreline temps are running +5°F above what they were this time last year. Low 60s right now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Skilling just posted this on FB...very surprised there is a warm pool of water near the southern shore.  Overall, all 5 Great Lakes are colder than last year.  Would be expected after the harsh winter we had.

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just in the nws chicago has issued an air quality alert for the city and surrondingareas from midnight tonight through midnight tomorrow night.

 

Hopefully we can get some rain sometime during the day to wash the atmosphere out!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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thats quite an MCS in south dakota and nebraska.

 

Impressive! Looking forward to something like that tomorrow.

 

CU towers have been firing up off to the west. A slight onshore breeze has kept the warmest air at bay.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Des Moines disco is heavily worded:

VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE  BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN  REASONABLY CONSISTENT AS WELL. GFS SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM  CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. FEEL ITS PCPN AMOUNTS ARE TOO  HIGH...THOUGH THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK TOO BAD. A BIT  NOISY...BUT OVERALL DECENT. H8 WINDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH BOTH NAM  AND GFS SHOWING 75 KTS AHEAD OF THE S/WV...ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 50  KTS...THUS ITS PCPN IS ALSO LOWER. IN ANY CASE...ALL MODELS POINT  TO A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. PWAT VALUES ON ALL RUN ARE IN THE  1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. THESE VALUE ARE NEAR 3 SIGMA ABOVE  NORMAL...AND ARE OF CONCERN. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN  PLACE...SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A BIG  CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE SUGGESTS A MAJOR OUTBREAK  WITH AT LEAST A 50% PROBABILITY. COMBINED 15 MEMBER SHOWS OVER  2200 EVENTS AT THE 48 HOUR POINT FOR ALL DAYS COMBINED WITH OVER  10% OF THOSE SIGNIFICANT. UPSHOT IS...SWODY2 LOOKS VERY GOOD. 
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I'm not too worried about severe wind here in Cedar Rapids.  I expect most of that stuff to remain south.  There should be a nice soaking rain just north of the severe.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So muggy outside now since that t-storm line passed. Upper 70s near 70° dewpoint here in Racine. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NAM showing a strong severe weather setup across Iowa, southern WI and northern IL Wednesday.

 

Showing some pretty high shear values.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like a very chilly day is on tap for Wednesday with a strong wind off the lake.  Lake Michigan water temps in the middle of the lake look very chilly still holding in the middle 30's for this time of year!  This setup tomorrow will most likely pile up some colder water near the shores and cool them off.  Will be interesting to see how much it cools.

 

On a warmer note, I have been paying attention to the Day 10-15 period.  Euro Ensembles/CFSv2 pumping a heat dome into the region for our first possible long duration heat wave.  Could be our first sustained 90's of the summer!

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I said I would post some CFSv2 maps from time to time for the upcoming Fall/Winter season, so here are the latest maps....I have noticed the CFSv2 is trending much colder for November and December is still looking cold along with above normal precip region wide.  Canada would certainly fill up with snow rather quickly if this transpires.  Looks very similar to how last year began.

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it appears that sw to southren iowa is going to get the brunt of the dangerous storms and they are saying that the severe storms will bow out to a derecho that means that winds could be as high 100 mph+ so iowa could be in line for this that will bring down trees and powerlines so it will be days or weeks before people in iowa and illinois will be restored.

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Looks like a very chilly day is on tap for Wednesday with a strong wind off the lake.  Lake Michigan water temps in the middle of the lake look very chilly still holding in the middle 30's for this time of year!  This setup tomorrow will most likely pile up some colder water near the shores and cool them off.  Will be interesting to see how much it cools.

 

On a warmer note, I have been paying attention to the Day 10-15 period.  Euro Ensembles/CFSv2 pumping a heat dome into the region for our first possible long duration heat wave.  Could be our first sustained 90's of the summer!

 

That map is actually contaminated with partial cloud cover (picking up on cloud temperatures partially). This is reality.

 

 

I know as of yesterday there was a few small patches of ice on the south shore of Lake Superior!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Thats crazy.  Was in northern WI over the weekend.  Unlimited sunshine on Friday on Saturday with temps in the mid to upper 80s.  Lakes were all warm enough to dive in.  And an hour away there is still ice on Superior.

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