June 2014 Observations and Discussion

[6789]

Absolutely devastating tornado in Nebraska. Live feeds show complete destruction of towns. This maybe an EF-5... 

[Tom]

It looks like there was a twin tornado producing super cell that produced that damage in NE.

 

James is about to get hit hard with severe storms in NC IA...

[tim the weatherman]

just heard there is 1 fatality in neb by today's tornadoes source weather.com

[james1976]

getting rocked here. i had rotation right over my house a while ago before the rain hit. and since then its been heavy rain, 60-70mph wind and small hail. didnt see any funnels though. however a few miles east of me there were reports of funnels. if it lets up ill go check rain gauge. im a bit concerned with flooding tonight. storms are training right over me and the line goes out to neb, s. dakota.

[james1976]

a lot of damage in a town about 20 miles north of me.

[Tom]

Looks like E IA is in the line of fire now...East Dubbz about to get hit by a cell that was producing a Tornado Warning...

[Madtown]

about to get bumpy here

[Tom]

S Wisco getting rocked!  Surprised there is a Tornado Warning south of Madison...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

S Wisco getting rocked!  Surprised there is a Tornado Warning south of Madison...

 

Apparently there was a TDS (tornado debris signature) visible on radar.

[Hawkeye]

Got a bad storm last night and lost power until this morning.  There are trees down in the neighborhood.  I got 2.86 inches of rain.

[Tom]

New June JMA run for this upcoming Summer, Fall and Winter.  Summer looks to end up above normal in our region with a pocket of cooler air over the Rockies.  Autumn still looks very chilly for the eastern 1/2 of the nation and above normal precip in the center of the U.S.  JMA still showing a cooler east coast which is a text book El Nino look, but not as cold near the lakes.  IMO, this will change as it is still showing a warm pool of water in NE Pacific that will create ridging in Alaska/Western Canada similar to the Fall Outlook.  The sea surface set up is very similar in both the Autumn and Winter months, yet the Dec-Feb period is warmer than the Sep-Nov period.  It also has a textbook -NAO look to it as well.  That's why I'm skeptical the model isn't forecasting the Dec-Feb period as well YET.

[Tom]

Euro pumping the heat into the region over the weekend...been showing this over the last several runs.  Next week looks absolutely superb with low humidity's and tranquil weather in the 70's.

[Tom]

14z HRRR model has storms firing up in N IA around 3:00-4:00pm CST, S WI around 5:00-7:00pm...

[Madtown]

well made it through round one. First time I headed to the basement in a long time. Tornado Warning popped right over head. missed us by 5 miles or so.  School collapsed and homes destroyed. We'll see what tonight brings

[Tom]

19z HRRR...storms should be poppin' soon...

[Tom]

Storms not really blossoming yet, the rain from last night might the factor here...looking at the regional satellite imagery, it shows a cloud deck right over the general area where heavy rains were yesterday in IA...the atmosphere may need more time to destabilize as these clouds clear up.

[6789]

Storms not really blossoming yet, the rain from last night might the factor here...looking at the regional satellite imagery, it shows a cloud deck right over the general area where heavy rains were yesterday in IA...the atmosphere may need more time to destabilize as these clouds clear up.

I hope, I've been waiting patiently for a good storm. Seems Cape is high enough, just need to get a good trigger and erode the cap a bit more.

[Madtown]

plenty o sun here 83 with 67 dew

[james1976]

got really cloudy mid afternoon and has been that way since. absolutely nothing on radar. wondering if this is gonna be a bust. we had plenty of action last night though.

[Tom]

Some storms starting to fire in N IL...one just hit ORD

[6789]

Large, maybe another EF-4/EF-5, tornado on the ground in NE. Coleridge NE may be completely destroyed 473 people in the town. 

[Tom]

That is a monster super cell in northeast NE...slow mover as well...most likely producing enormous damage.  I feel sorry for those that are in the way of this storm.

[East Dubzz]

Third night in a row with storms as I go to bed. Two of those nights now have caused power outages. Man I love night storms

[East Dubzz]

Man it has been soooo dang muggy out this week. But again, that's why we're getting all these storms. Pretty decent shot at some good rainfall again today/tonight, so I guess we'll see what happens there. Certainly don't need any more, but I will take some more rain for the yard.

[james1976]

storms are just parading over my area.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like tonight will be more of a light to moderate rainfall, which with almost 7" already this week, is just fine. Still coming down pretty good at times, and it's better for the yard that way. Great week to put fertilizer on.

[james1976]

over 6" here for the week......another line moving through right now.

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing a cool start to Autumn, chilly October...clearly showing that west coast ridge that was last winter's signature pattern.

[East Dubzz]

I hope the middle of August is chilly. Football camp starts the 13th, and nothing is worse than major heat during football camp.

[Hawkeye]

Got almost an inch of rain yesterday.  My week total is 3.86".

 

It has been muggy, but not especially hot.  I'll take low to mid 80s and muggy over upper 90s and dry anytime.

[East Dubzz]

Got almost an inch of rain yesterday. My week total is 3.86".

 

It has been muggy, but not especially hot. I'll take low to mid 80s and muggy over upper 90s and dry anytime.

Gonna have to disagree with you there. I hate muggy weather, unless it storms like it did this week of course. But as for doing stuff during the day in that weather, I hate hot and humid. It's the worst.

 

Dubuque recorded 7.43" of rain this week.

[Tom]

The only thing that sucks about having a lot of rainfall is Mosquito season...I remember being up in Castle Rock Lake Wisconsin and mosquito's were the size of friggin' quarters!

[Tom]

Looking out towards 4th of July weekend, there may be a heat wave in the works...

[Tom]

I did a comparison of the SST Anomalies for mid June in 2013 and 2014.  Last year you can see the pool of warm water in NE Pacific with pockets of cooler water here and there in the GOA and in the Bearing straights.  However, this year we are seeing much above normal departures in NE Pacific (Bullseye of off the charts warmth due south of Alaska with similar placement as last year) and in the GOA and the Bearing straights.  If this trend continues, it will certainly promote sustained ridging in the Fall/Winter months next season.

 

One other key point I see are the cooler waters off the shores of East Asia this year.  This suggests a stormy East/Asian connection that we all know can transpire to storminess in the Eastern U.S.  Trends are looking very interesting for this upcoming winter.

[Tom]

12z Euro run indicating some sustained heat building in the Plains late next week and propagating into our region.  Right now it looks like Sat-Mon look hot and steamy!

[tim the weatherman]

12z Euro run indicating some sustained heat building in the Plains late next week and propagating into our region.  Right now it looks like Sat-Mon look hot and steamy!

looks lika a mini heat wave in the making.

[Niko]

I did a comparison of the SST Anomalies for mid June in 2013 and 2014.  Last year you can see the pool of warm water in NE Pacific with pockets of cooler water here and there in the GOA and in the Bearing straights.  However, this year we are seeing much above normal departures in NE Pacific (Bullseye of off the charts warmth due south of Alaska with similar placement as last year) and in the GOA and the Bearing straights.  If this trend continues, it will certainly promote sustained ridging in the Fall/Winter months next season.

 

One other key point I see are the cooler waters off the shores of East Asia this year.  This suggests a stormy East/Asian connection that we all know can transpire to storminess in the Eastern U.S.  Trends are looking very interesting for this upcoming winter.

Tom, can you imagine we have a repeat next winter of what we experienced this past one?! Yikes! I still cannot believe my area broke the old time record snowfall ever of 94.5". Just incredible. I remember last Autumn when forecasters were predicting 50-60" and I was thinking to myself, wow, that's a lot of snow this winter. Who would have known that all time records were going to be broken. Also, so many nights of record low temperatures. Other records were having record low high temperatures for the day too. It was a winter of records. Plain and simple.

[Tom]

Indeed Niko's, I wish we would have had our Snowfall Forecast predictions back in October from the old forum and see who had snowfall even near to the actual amounts that fell.  I had a feeling it would be a snowy winter, but no way near record territory here in N IL, let along S MI where you live.

 

As for next winter, with an active sub tropical jet stream from a building "weak" El Nino, and with similar SST's setting up like last year...could we have another record breaking winter in the making???  Remember, last year the weather pattern was fairly progressive with a consistent +NAO.  If we can get some more blocking up near Greenland this winter, I can see deeper intrusions of the PV and longer lasting severe cold outbreaks if snow cover is deep enough.  Last year systems didn't really wind up into monsters or go neg tilt.  This year it may be a lot different.  I'm very curious to see how the LRC sets up in October/November.

 

One more key element regarding the SST, check out the very warm waters up near Bermuda.  Could another year of a consistent Bermuda High be setting up as well???  SE ridge???  These are all important elements setting up for next winter.  A lot of us on here were saying last season that winters of the late 70's may be heading our way...I sure hope so because last year was amazing and I will never forget.

[Tom]

Just saved a buddy of mine from riding his Harley into a Tornado Warning!!!   I warned him about 30 min ago when storms started blossoming around WI/IL border and he was at Famous Freddy's with a crew of friends with Harley's.  That storm blew up and now its producing a Tornado in Lake County!

[james1976]

Tom, can you imagine we have a repeat next winter of what we experienced this past one?! Yikes! I still cannot believe my area broke the old time record snowfall ever of 94.5". Just incredible. I remember last Autumn when forecasters were predicting 50-60" and I was thinking to myself, wow, that's a lot of snow this winter. Who would have known that all time records were going to be broken. Also, so many nights of record low temperatures. Other records were having record low high temperatures for the day too. It was a winter of records. Plain and simple.

Here in Iowa we were only 1.5" from setting the all-time record. Hoping for a snowy winter 14-15!