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PacNW June 2014 Discussion

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#1
iFred

Posted 31 May 2014 - 05:53 PM

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Warm month or a dreary month...

#2
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2014 - 03:35 AM

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Stressful month.

 

SSTA's will dominate. 


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:49 AM

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And as if on cue, 

We begin June,

With gloom.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2014 - 10:15 AM

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And as if on cue, 

We begin June,

With gloom.

 

 

Yep.

 

It was pretty thin up here... I can see the sun through the clouds now.



#5
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 June 2014 - 10:51 AM

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Yep.

 

It was pretty thin up here... I can see the sun through the clouds now.

 

Breaking up to sunshine here now.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2014 - 01:16 PM

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Another beautiful day.



#7
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2014 - 03:10 PM

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Another beautiful day.


We are on Lake Sammamish right now... almost no wind and not a cloud in the sky.

#8
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2014 - 07:26 PM

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We are on Lake Sammamish right now... almost no wind and not a cloud in the sky.

And yet you were convinced today would socked in everywhere.



#9
richard mann

Posted 01 June 2014 - 08:14 PM

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And yet you were convinced today would be socked in everywhere.


.. probably just an "opinion".


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---twitter_logo-t12.png

#10
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2014 - 08:31 PM

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And yet you were convinced today would socked in everywhere.

 

 

Again... was not convinced of anything.   I said it was a tough call.    Are you just screwing with me or do really not read?   :)

 

And in fact... I pointed out last night that the WRF show cleared skies even for you this afternoon.

 

 

:



#11
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2014 - 08:38 PM

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Again... was not convinced of anything.   I said it was a tough call.    Are you just screwing with me or do really not read?   :)

 

And in fact... I pointed out last night that the WRF show cleared skies even for you this afternoon.

 

 

:

I just don't worry about it too much.  Weather is not worth stressing over.

 

Seeing you get riled over it is funny at times.



#12
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2014 - 08:53 PM

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I just don't worry about it too much.  Weather is not worth stressing over.

 

Seeing you get riled over it is funny at times.

 

 

OK... but don't imply that I said something that I did not.



#13
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:14 PM

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OK... but don't imply that I said something that I did not.

And you do the same. 

 

Because you implied something I never said as well, last night.

 

Problem solved.



#14
snow_wizard

Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:26 PM

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I am a huge fan of the pattern the models continue to advertise for the next 10 days. A decidedly unusual arrangement compared to what one would normally expect with a developing (or trying to develop) El Nino. It looks pretty likely we will see a decent clipper this week with an impressive surge of N to NW winds behind it. Could be some pretty chilly low temps behind that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#15
snow_wizard

Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:34 PM

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On another note the solar activity is the lowest it has been in months now. We are already sliding toward the very deep solar minimum that is expected for this cycle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#16
snow_wizard

Posted 01 June 2014 - 10:04 PM

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Pretty interesting to see that most of the CPC analogs for the next couple of weeks are from La Nina years.  That gives me some faith that even if we do have a Nino in place late in the year it will probably not have the usual effects.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#17
TheBigOne

Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:26 AM

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I am a huge fan of the pattern the models continue to advertise for the next 10 days. A decidedly unusual arrangement compared to what one would normally expect with a developing (or trying to develop) El Nino. It looks pretty likely we will see a decent clipper this week with an impressive surge of N to NW winds behind it. Could be some pretty chilly low temps behind that.

Aren't clippers suppose to be an Midwest/East coast phenomena that usually lasts as far as the Appillachian mountains or however the hell you spell them?   I didn't know we could get them here in the PNW.



#18
Phil

Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:55 AM

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Aren't clippers suppose to be an Midwest/East coast phenomena that usually lasts as far as the Appillachian mountains or however the hell you spell them? I didn't know we could get them here in the PNW.


Appalachian mountains. The PNW doesn't get "clippers" in the sense that the Midwest/East does. You get lows riding the periphery of the NPAC ridge, that will then ride into Canada or the PNW.

On the East coast, they're cold, moisture-starved systems that usually make it past the mountains (albeit weakened) and sometimes bomb out and become noreasters along or off the coast. Last winter saw many clippers phasing/bombing into 945mb lows over the NATL.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#19
GHweatherChris

Posted 02 June 2014 - 03:44 PM

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Perfect day for yard work.  Clouds breaking up just a bit and comfortable.



#20
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:07 PM

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Perfect day for yard work.  Clouds breaking up just a bit and comfortable.

 

 

Just for the record... this is why I say you have a coastal climate.   

 

This is a very common low cloud configuration in the summer with a nose of stratus poking through the Chehalis Gap.   

 

Untitled.png

 

 

You can rationalize it all you want and say how comfortable it is to be in low clouds most of the day... but its certainly a different world on days like today in the Seattle and Portland areas where its truly summer-like by most people's definition.   And here where it was sunny from the start and still 75 degrees outside.  

 

This is a very common set-up.   A summer with many days like you had today nearly drove everyone around here crazy in 2010.   Its anti-summer. 

 

The Central Park WA observations were in the upper 50s in the middle of the afternoon with a SW breeze and clouds.   

 

Tomorrow you will spread your low cloud bounty to the rest of us... but we certainly get way more truly nice days in the Seattle area and at my location during summer with a stable pattern in place. 



#21
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:44 PM

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Just for the record... this is why I say you have a coastal climate.   

 

This is a very common low cloud configuration in the summer with a nose of stratus poking through the Chehalis Gap.  

 

 

You can rationalize it all you want and say how comfortable it is to be in low clouds most of the day... but its certainly a different world on days like today in the Seattle and Portland areas where its truly summer-like by most people's definition.   And here where it was sunny from the start and still 75 degrees outside.  

 

This is a very common set-up.   A summer with many days like you had today nearly drove everyone around here crazy in 2010.   Its anti-summer. 

 

The Central Park WA observations were in the upper 50s in the middle of the afternoon with a SW breeze and clouds.   

 

Tomorrow you will spread your low cloud bounty to the rest of us... but we certainly get way more truly nice days in the Seattle area and at my location during summer with a stable pattern in place. 

 

Good lord dude. Seek help.


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#22
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:48 PM

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Pretty much a perfect day. Brief morning clouds, high 75, low 50. I would take this weather all summer if I could. Maybe throw a few t-storm days in there.


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#23
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:53 PM

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Good lord dude. Seek help.


Seek help for continuing a ongoing debate about climate zones... on a perfect day to illustrate my point.   OK.



#24
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:57 PM

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Some decent rain about a week out on the 18z GFS, lets pray to the Lord Maitreya that it comes to fruition.


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#25
iFred

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:59 PM

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Another lovely day in Bothell. I spent the morning out on the deck watching the Apple WWDC presentation while enjoying the mild day. Three more months until cooler weather.


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#26
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2014 - 04:59 PM

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Pretty much a perfect day. Brief morning clouds, high 75, low 50. I would take this weather all summer if I could. Maybe throw a few t-storm days in there.


Today was perfect.
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#27
Tyler Mode

Posted 02 June 2014 - 06:19 PM

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I'll second Jesse and Tim.  Today was really perfect.  Even this evening, the temp is comfy with a nice breeze. 

 

Copy and paste please.

 

Looking at the forecast for the next 7 days, looks like it is copy and paste!



#28
chinook

Posted 02 June 2014 - 08:37 PM

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ditto on the perfection.

I've come to the realization there is Oregon weather...Washington weather ...B.C. weather and then Tim's weather.

Get a grip dude.
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#29
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2014 - 09:04 PM

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ditto on the perfection.

I've come to the realization there is Oregon weather...Washington weather ...B.C. weather and then Tim's weather.

Get a grip dude.

 

I believe I said today was perfection... no?   



#30
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2014 - 09:23 PM

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Models have been unusually chaotic given the quiet time of year.

 

Some runs have been hinting at a deep, cold trough next week and then on the next run it disappears... then it comes back on another model.



#31
TheBigOne

Posted 02 June 2014 - 09:54 PM

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That means as usual it's not going to happen.   I predict things will be right at normal and July slightly warmer then normal and slightly wetter then normal if we get a monsoon pattern to show up.    Lately the PNW has been stuck in a stagnant pattern or I am going crazy wishing for some sort of change.



#32
TheBigOne

Posted 02 June 2014 - 09:55 PM

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Some decent rain about a week out on the 18z GFS, lets pray to the Lord Maitreya that it comes to fruition.

I can't tell if you are trying to imply humor or not.   Sorry but you lost me on that one!



#33
snow_wizard

Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:06 PM

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That means as usual it's not going to happen.   I predict things will be right at normal and July slightly warmer then normal and slightly wetter then normal if we get a monsoon pattern to show up.    Lately the PNW has been stuck in a stagnant pattern or I am going crazy wishing for some sort of change.

 

 

The pattern has fundamentally changed quite a bit from where we were a few weeks ago.  Much higher surface pressure off the coast, less rain, cooler nights.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#34
IbrChris

Posted 03 June 2014 - 01:56 AM

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Looks like a pleasant first couple weeks of June, temps close to or a couple degrees above normal and predominantly dry.


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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#35
GHweatherChris

Posted 03 June 2014 - 03:39 PM

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Once again, the sun is out just as I get home.

 

I am digging the pattern this week.



#36
snow_wizard

Posted 03 June 2014 - 10:07 PM

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Two posts in 24 hours?  Yikes!


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#37
Chris

Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:28 AM

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Two posts in 24 hours?  Yikes!

 

The Midwest is the place to be for exciting weather right now.



#38
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:29 AM

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Things are pretty boring right now. A few low clouds this morning. They will burn off later, it will be a nice afternoon. Just hope I get off work before 7pm today.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#39
HighlandExperience

Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:33 AM

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Does anyone think there will be a pretty solid low level marine layer Friday morning? Was hoping to get a view of Seattle from the summit of Mt. Ellinor.

 

Don't want those low level clouds obstructing my view! :D



#40
TT-SEA

Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:35 AM

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Does anyone think there will be a pretty solid low level marine layer Friday morning? Was hoping to get a view of Seattle from the summit of Mt. Ellinor.

 

Don't want those low level clouds obstructing my view! :D

 

 

Should be pretty clear that morning...

 

intcld.51.0000.gif



#41
BLI snowman

Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:11 PM

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Yawner patterns are always nice for a little while. If things are still this slow in a week then it'll be time for a change to anything else.


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#42
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:18 PM

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Yawner patterns are always nice for a little while. If things are still this slow in a week then it'll be time for a change to anything else.

I have been enjoying the hell out of this pattern.

 

But a change somewhat soon would be ok, maybe some moisture followed by some hot weather.



#43
MossMan

Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:31 PM

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I could take this pattern plus 5 to 10 degrees with zero morning clouds from now until October 15th! Maybe add in a few heavy Thunder storms once a month through the summer as a bonus. Then the fall storms can start up!

#44
Jesse

Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:02 PM

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I could take this pattern plus 5 to 10 degrees with zero morning clouds from now until October 15th! Maybe add in a few heavy Thunder storms once a month through the summer as a bonus. Then the fall storms can start up!

 

Thank God you don't control the weather. :)

 

Reminds me of the movie Pleasantville.


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#45
Jesse

Posted 04 June 2014 - 08:07 PM

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That said. Gorgeous day. Brief morning clouds, high 71, low 50.

 

Did a hike to Observation Peak in the Trapper Creek Wilderness after work today. Fantastic views and a nice cool breeze up there.



#46
snow_wizard

Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:47 PM

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This pattern is fine with me.  Not hot and very dry.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#47
Deweydog

Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:00 PM

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This pattern is fine with me.  But I hope it changes when it does and changes to something I like.  I like money.  

 


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#48
TT-SEA

Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:02 PM

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This pattern is fine with me.  Not hot and very dry.

 

 

I don't see any heat in the next couple weeks.   

 

Honestly... this feels very much like June of 2009 after the heat wave to start the month that year.    Most of June in 2009 was very similar to this current pattern.    Very dry... but not hot.   Plenty of marine influence.    The 500mb pattern is also a good match... and the strong high offshore.

 

I am not saying that to annoy Jesse... it really is similar.   Usually when its very dry in June its also very warm.      

 

SEA had a rainfall total of just .18 in June 2009... and finished the month above normal but most of that departure was in the first 4 days.   



#49
Deweydog

Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:04 PM

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I don't see any heat in the next couple weeks.   

 

Honestly... this feels very much like June of 2009 after the heat wave to start the month.    Most of June in 2009 was very similar to this current pattern.    Very dry... but cool with plenty of marine influence.    The 500mb pattern is also a good match... and the strong high offshore.

 

I am not saying to annoy Jesse... it really is similar.   Usually when it very dry in June its also very warm.      

 

Seems fairly typical.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#50
TT-SEA

Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:12 PM

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Seems fairly typical.  

 

I am hoping this holds through most of June.

 

A lack of heat in June might give us a better shot at a nice September.