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PacNW June 2014 Discussion

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#551
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 12:45 PM

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.. Come on Tim.

 

You're just working to illustrate my point all the more with this rhetoric above. 

 

.. The models, flipping around, so "you" deduce what you have more "specific", relative to the idea.

 

Now, how about an actual answer to my question. ... Yes or No, are you familiar with the actual definition of the term "assumption", as it's used more scientifically. ?

 

Or are you going to drag out the old .. my "opinion", .. fencing, for me here. ?

 

 

 (Brass Tacks, or Push-pins. ?  /  "Check-out Stand" level or more scientific, "weather discussion". ? Make your decision.)


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#552
TT-SEA

Posted 29 June 2014 - 12:47 PM

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.. Come on Tim.

 

You're just working to illustrate my point all the more with this rhetoric above. 

 

.. The models, flipping around, so "you" deduce what you have more "specific", relative to the idea.

 

Now, how about an actual answer my question. ...

 

 

Richard... the 12Z ECMWF from yesterday had bad data.   The 850mb temperatures jumped up 5C or more across the entire North American continent and across all of Alaska and the Bering Sea from the previous run.  And then went right back down on the 00Z run.   

 

That is bad data.   There is no debate on this one.    



#553
Phil

Posted 29 June 2014 - 01:00 PM

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Highest ever recorded Antarctic sea ice anomaly:

1024.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#554
Deweydog

Posted 29 June 2014 - 01:06 PM

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Highest ever recorded Antarctic sea ice anomaly:

1024.jpg

 

No wonder it's cloudy out right now!


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#555
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 01:29 PM

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.... The 850mb temperatures jumped up 5C or more across the entire North American continent and across all of Alaska and the Bering Sea from the previous run.  And then went right back down on the 00Z run.   
 
That is bad data.   There is no debate on this one.

 
"God Bless", Tim.  ...

 

And if just for the record here more only, ... 
 
From "Isaac Asimov's" "Understanding Physics", ....
 
" .. something accepted without proof, and [with its being] incorrect to speak of as either true or false, since there is no way of proving it to be either. (If there were, it would no longer be an assumption.)" 
 
"gathered" or "appreciated to be the case", might fit better here.

 

.. To which he's added, following, ...

 

".. It is better to consider assumptions as either useful or useless, depending on whether or not deductions made from them correspond to reality. If two [different] deductions both lead to deductions that correspond to reality, then the one that explains more is the more useful"

 

.. Beyond these thoughts, .. of course there's, still. (?), what actually transpires to consider, where considering whichever run. Correct. ?


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#556
TT-SEA

Posted 29 June 2014 - 01:44 PM

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Whatever Richard.

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF from Friday for next Saturday (7/5):

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

 

 

Here is the 'bad data' from yesterday morning for the same day (7/5):

 

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

 

 

And here is the run from this morning for the same day:

 

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

 

 

If you can't see that is bad data... then I don't what to tell you.    The 12Z run from yesterday looked like nothing before it and nothing since.   



#557
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 02:00 PM

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.. I see. 
 
Well then, you'll .. just have to go with "that" then, hmmn. ... ? 
 
As I'd said previously, what I'd been looking at "much" more than your dissection of the models, more incremental, had been whether or not what the run more initial that you're pointed to was apt to verify. / i.e. with the higher pressure and more extreme heat that it had projected. 
 
Beyond this, .. have fun with your "critique" of "the models", is my view and appreciation of what you've either whether said or pointed to otherwise. 
 
And to be clear, I don't mean any offense here more in particularly, with what I've said here more just above, I'm just not interested in your assessment of one "run" as compared with another. As I've said, I don't check the models, whether regularly or otherwise, as a matter of course. -@ @


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#558
TT-SEA

Posted 29 June 2014 - 02:15 PM

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.. I see.

Well then, you'll .. just have to go with "that" then, hmmn. ... ?

As I'd said previously, what I'd been looking at "much" more than your dissection more of the models, more incremental, had been whether or not what the run more initial that you're pointed to was apt to verify. / i.e. with the higher pressure and more extreme heat that it had projected.

Beyond this, .. have fun with your "critique" of "the models", is my view and appreciation of what you've either whether said or pointed to otherwise.

And to be clear, I don't mean any offense here more in particularly, with what I've said here more just above, I'm just not interested in your assessment of one "run" as compared with another. As I've said, I don't check the models, whether regularly or otherwise, as a matter of course. -@ @


Fair enough. Just don't tell me I am making bad assumptions about that run. It was comically wrong.

#559
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 02:24 PM

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"Please". 

 

You've just essentially inferred, that I had done, already, with what I've said / asked, above. 

 

Had you answered, the question that I'd asked about assumptions, instead of having "jumped" to more rhetoric (i.e. less than more substantial ideas.), then I could have said more about why I'd asked it.  


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#560
Phil

Posted 29 June 2014 - 04:00 PM

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No wonder it's cloudy out right now!


Lol, and then this comes out...you can't make this up...

http://www.independe...ce-9571495.html
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#561
BLI snowman

Posted 29 June 2014 - 05:18 PM

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Looks like mid 90s for Portland and upper 80s for Seattle are now a lock. May be the hottest we get this year!


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#562
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 06:25 PM

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Lol, and then this comes out...you can't make this up...

http://www.independe...ce-9571495.html

 

(Sarcasm Alert. !!)

 

I know, huh. ?

 

.. It's almost criminal, .... how "laughable", some of these "warmists", are .... where and with their hoping to sway "our" views, huh Phil. ?


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#563
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 29 June 2014 - 06:35 PM

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Looks like mid 90s for Portland and upper 80s for Seattle are now a lock. May be the hottest we get this year!

 

I don't mind it, essentially a one day heatwave. It will be comfortable by the 4th.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#564
seattleweatherguy

Posted 29 June 2014 - 06:53 PM

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Looks like mid 90s for Portland and upper 80s for Seattle are now a lock. May be the hottest we get this year!

hopefully it wont get hotter than that



#565
Phil

Posted 29 June 2014 - 09:02 PM

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(Sarcasm Alert. !!)

I know, huh. ?

.. It's almost criminal, .... how "laughable", some of these "warmists", are .... where and with their hoping to sway "our" views, huh Phil. ?


Sarcastic or not, you're 100% correct
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#566
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 09:29 PM

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Sarcastic or not, you're 100% correct ...

 
.. Let's see, how would "that" work. (?) ... I ridicule your high-hatted rhetoric, essentially pointing to all or anyone even mentioning the idea or possibility of "Global Warming" (Certainly as the result of anything that humans have control over.), as "laughable", ... 
 
And you respond with, I'm 100 percent correct. 
 
.. I think you're finally beginning to see the "light" "Phil". ..... 
 
(Oh. This last part here just above.? Also, sarcasm.  @ @ @ @.)


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#567
Phil

Posted 29 June 2014 - 09:59 PM

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.. Let's see, how would "that" work. (?) ... I ridicule your high-hatted rhetoric, essentially pointing to all or anyone even mentioning the idea or possibility of "Global Warming" (Certainly as the result of anything that humans have control over.), as "laughable", ...

And you respond with, I'm 100 percent correct.

.. I think you're finally beginning to see the "light" "Phil". .....

(Oh, this last part here just above.? Also, sarcasm. @ @ @ @ )


If I were to provide you with peer-reviewed sources for my claims, would you still consider it "rhetoric"? There's a lot more that goes into good forecasting than mere words and assumptions.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#568
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 10:07 PM

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-

.. Tough to tell from here, hmmn. ?    (.. "claims". ? / .. "it". ?)

 

And, who're you tellin'. (?)


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#569
Phil

Posted 29 June 2014 - 11:00 PM

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-
.. Tough to tell from here, hmmn. ? (.. "claims". ? / .. "it". ?)

And, who're you tellin'. (?)


I don't understand this post
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#570
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 11:04 PM

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.. "Surprise, surprise."
 
Perhaps try thinking in terms of its being a minimalist, response to what you've suggested, only, above. 
 
(That help you any. ?) 
 
This with otherwise my having pointed (if more abstractly. ?) to your poor use of terms where referring to basic concepts (the english language.), even sense of context, within the initial sentence of yours above. 
 
(Anything. ?)


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#571
Phil

Posted 29 June 2014 - 11:18 PM

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I always thought I was the one to ramble incoherently...but wow...

I'd like to discuss this with you (scientifically), but you're going to have to meet me halfway. Maybe this would fit best in the GW/CC thread...?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#572
richard mann

Posted 29 June 2014 - 11:26 PM

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-
Don't let what I've said change your more basic thinking. 
 
.. Not to worry. 
 
Perhaps invite, yourself, to general dissemination of the "papers" that you've had in mind, focusing on whatever other, you have.  
 
.. A bit "Rambly", here too. ? (Oh Well.) ... 
 
Half-way, hmmn. (?) .. Whaah'do I have to do, step on your "foot". ?
 
... Essentially "Phil", I hadn't wanted to clutter up, this thread here, with your "claims" (numerous and sundry.). Nor "papers", which you evidently feel work to support whatever of them. And so, I said what I had.
 
Unlike yourself, I'm not interested in "homogenizing" all concepts, either whether or both, meteorological, or climatological, in to one grand set of "claims"supported or otherwisehere within the main general thread for PNW. (But you just really dont appear to be paying attention to anything other than your on tack. So how could you be expected to pick up on this thinking, more abstract. ? .. would be my, general impression where considering your confusion.) (Again. Oh, Well. / .. I guess you had to be there.)
 
.. "A time to defer. A time to not. .... "  (Still nothin'. ?)  @ @
 


.. discuss this ... / .. Maybe this would .. fit .. best ..... in the GW/CC thread...?


Only you, would know. .. My, ultimately, not really having much to go on where considering just what "this", is. (Your different various "references", even more basic above, being way, beyond, general. And certainly even approaching, expansive.)


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#573
richard mann

Posted 30 June 2014 - 12:16 AM

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-

... Warming up, here more south. 

 

94°F today, 104 expected tomorrow. 

 

(Ride 'm Pasco.)


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#574
FroYoBro

Posted 30 June 2014 - 02:15 PM

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... Warming up, here more south. 

 

94°F today, 104 expected tomorrow. 

 

(Ride 'm Pasco.)

 

I like the cut of your jib.



#575
richard mann

Posted 30 June 2014 - 06:23 PM

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-

.. 106°F here were I am .. (right now.)

 

Room Temp. 91, with the swamp cooler and some fans running. 


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#576
Jesse

Posted 30 June 2014 - 09:03 PM

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Back home. Weather's looking warm.

#577
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 30 June 2014 - 09:43 PM

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-

.. 106°F here were I am .. (right now.)

 

Room Temp. 91, with the swamp cooler and some fans running. 

 

Is that high of a temperature normal for your area this time of year or is it above average?



#578
Deweydog

Posted 30 June 2014 - 10:21 PM

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Temperatures in the thermal belt running in the mid to upper 70's right now. Might get hot tomorrow.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#579
richard mann

Posted 30 June 2014 - 11:03 PM

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Is that high of a temperature normal for your area this time of year or is it above average?

 
hey Dan. 
 
.. The 106° temp. was actually for Chico. "Down the hill" from me here in Paradise, up into the foothills some.
 
More along the lines of, not untypical, for Chico.
 
It was probably more like 102° here. Also not untypical. We can get as much as a near to 10 degree difference in higher temperatures where and when things are only generally hot. But when temps get more extreme, the difference narrows some. Higher pressure from later Spring through to mid fall, usually works to impact the general area fairly significantly.


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#580
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2014 - 07:05 AM

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Pleasant morning out. 



#581
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2014 - 09:24 AM

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CFS showing most of the US cooler than average in August. Warm in the PNW. 


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#582
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2014 - 10:00 AM

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CFS showing most of the US cooler than average in August. Warm in the PNW.


Link or map?

#583
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2014 - 10:18 AM

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CFSv2.NaT2m.20140701.201408.gif


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#584
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2014 - 10:18 AM

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CFSv2.NaPrec.20140701.201408.gif


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#585
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2014 - 11:38 AM

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CFSv2.NaT2m.20140701.201408.gif

 

LIke I've said all along, August is going to be a scorcher.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#586
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 July 2014 - 06:02 PM

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hey Dan. 
 
.. The 106° temp. was actually for Chico. "Down the hill" from me here in Paradise, up into the foothills some.
 
More along the lines of, not untypical, for Chico.
 
It was probably more like 102° here. Also not untypical. We can get as much as a near to 10 degree difference in higher temperatures where and when things are only generally hot. But when temps get more extreme, the difference narrows some. Higher pressure from later Spring through to mid fall, usually works to impact the general area fairly significantly.

I figured those temperatures were probably not too far from average considering that we are now at the end of June and beginning of July.



#587
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 July 2014 - 06:45 PM

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It was warm today.



#588
chinook

Posted 01 July 2014 - 08:07 PM

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98f for a high today in McMinnville.

Pleasant out this evening. Winds shifted from the N to the SW. ...nature's A/C.

#589
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2014 - 09:10 PM

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98 at PDX and 94 at SEA. Similar to last year's heat spike at this time.



#590
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2014 - 09:15 PM

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98 at PDX and 94 at SEA. Similar to last year's heat spike at this time.

 

 

Feels like our July - September true summer has begun... right on cue.

 

Hopefully it extends well into October. :)



#591
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2014 - 09:24 PM

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Feels like our July - September true summer has begun... right on cue.

 

Hopefully it extends well into October. :)

 

Looks like it'll be nice for awhile. Lots of 75 to 85 days around the region.