Appreciate your having initiated this thread Fred. ...
— Hopefully lending to the idea of whomever's interested, submitting their more specific conjecture or main thoughts, both timeframe and general strength focused, and less focused on and dealing more with of all of the different more extraneous ideas / elements connected to just why whatever will or won't be brought about.
This said, and with not venturing a more specific estimate of what might actually occur myself, here within this thread I do want to drop in something more general, in fact "re-emphasizing" what I've been saying for 3 or 4 years now at this point about the more general potential for a "more significant" period of ENSO activity / eventuality (i.e. something nearer to the main 1996 through 1998 set of events and timeframe.), where looking at .. from 2015 to 2017.
And with this in fact .. and if in fact more outside of the main definition of ENSO—in that although where considering certainly some "La Nina" events, these can be looked at not more conventionally, more only as the presence of much cooler waters where looking at the main Eastern and Central equatorial Pacific, but also as a more significantly increased warming, of the main sea-surface waters of the Western Pacific more equatorial, …
My more general forecast, more surrounding the idea of an El Nino's occurrence this year, has been that where looking at and considering .. the whole of—or broader, main—equatorial Pacific more, we will see an increased warming during the main timeframe that I've pointed to here above.
.. and if again.
http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=22144- - -(Last paragraph.)
— Of more incidental note, or otherwise, … My main reasoning connected to this more general forecast, has been my general conjecture that with the moon's, main "declinational range", having in fact been at its "narrowest" at the time of the last more significant warming of the broader equatorial Pacific, this general correlation's having supported / lent—some how—to both the main and stronger El Nino in 1997, along together with also the stronger La Nina in 1998. .. And so, with this idea, looked at together with this general advent's being set to occur again more at this point looked at more generally, a similar impetus being in play, again perhaps, lending to a more significant warming where looking at the broader equatorial Pacific.