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ENSO 2014-15 Prediction Thread


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#1
iFred

Posted 10 June 2014 - 04:46 AM

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Hello All!

 

So this thread is designed to keep track of predictions as made by members of this community. Please limit the posts to predictions for ENSO anomalies for the next 12 months. I will lock the thread October 1st, and we will see had the most accurate prediction the furthest out (there may be a nice prize for that).



#2
Chris

Posted 11 June 2014 - 12:58 PM

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+1.1c peak NDJ.  Total wild ass guess.



#3
snow_wizard

Posted 12 June 2014 - 09:48 PM

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I'm going out on a huge limb based on the recent very unfavorable atmospheric and subsurface conditions for El Nino.

 

The Nino peaks during the summer with a +0.8 to +1.0 tri monthly for Nino 3.4.  Nino possibly dead by winter.

 

It appears as if the warm water that was built up over the Western Pacific has already been dissipated by the Kelvin wave earlier in the year.  The subsurface warm water from that is already shriveling up under the eastern Equatorial Pacific.  If there are no new WWBs soon any momentum for a Nino will be spent.  I will make a firm prediction this Nino will not behave in anything resembling a typical manner.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#4
Phil

Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:27 PM

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NIÑO 3.4 peak of 1.2C.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#5
Black Hole

Posted 13 June 2014 - 10:26 AM

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I'm going 1.2 for the peak as well. Probably strongest on the front half of the winter and weakening slowly during the winter.


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#6
Phil

Posted 13 June 2014 - 03:26 PM

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I'm going 1.2 for the peak as well. Probably strongest on the front half of the winter and weakening slowly during the winter.


Exactly my thoughts as well. Nov/early Dec peak.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#7
snow_wizard

Posted 13 June 2014 - 10:45 PM

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Apparently most people are choosing to ignore the current very unfavorable conditions for this Nino to develop.  The big problem is the subsurface temps west of 160 are all colder than normal now.  The first time in over a year.  The last Kelvin wave dissipated much of the Western Pacific warmth that had built up.


  • tim the weatherman likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#8
Phil

Posted 14 June 2014 - 02:44 PM

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Or maybe you're ignoring the fact that the MJO is likely to advance, promoting a WWB activity.

Look at 2009 at this time..where'd we end up? ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#9
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 June 2014 - 02:10 PM

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Or maybe you're ignoring the fact that the MJO is likely to advance, promoting a WWB activity.

Look at 2009 at this time..where'd we end up? ;)

2009 event also had la nina like signals for a while in which the amothphere legged the el nino effects for a while which means this isnt going to be a super event.im with you this is likey going to be a low end to moderate el nino certainly not the super nino that some were avertiseing.

#10
richard mann

Posted 15 June 2014 - 03:20 PM

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Appreciate your having initiated this thread Fred. ...
 
Hopefully lending to the idea of whomever's interested, submitting their more specific conjecture or main thoughts, both timeframe and general strength focused, and less focused on and dealing more with of all of the different more extraneous ideas / elements connected to just why whatever will or won't be brought about. 
 
This said, and with not venturing a more specific estimate of what might actually occur myself, here within this thread I do want to drop in something more general, in fact "re-emphasizing" what I've been saying for 3 or 4 years now at this point about the more general potential for a "more significant" period of ENSO activity / eventuality (i.e. something nearer to the main 1996 through 1998 set of events and timeframe.), where looking at .. from 2015 to 2017. 
 
http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=15733
 
And with this in fact .. and if in fact more outside of the main definition of ENSOin that although where considering certainly some "La Nina" events, these can be looked at not more conventionally, more only as the presence of much cooler waters where looking at the main Eastern and Central equatorial Pacific, but also as a more significantly increased warming, of the main sea-surface waters of the Western Pacific more equatorial, …
 
My more general forecast, more surrounding the idea of an El Nino's occurrence this year, has been that where looking at and considering .. the whole ofor broader, mainequatorial Pacific more, we will see an increased warming during the main timeframe that I've pointed to here above.
 
.. and if again. 
 
http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=22144- - -(Last paragraph.)
 
Of more incidental note, or otherwise, … My main reasoning connected to this more general forecast, has been my general conjecture that with the moon's, main "declinational range", having in fact been at its "narrowest" at the time of the last more significant warming of the broader equatorial Pacific, this general correlation's having supported / lentsome howto both the main and stronger El Nino in 1997, along together with also the stronger La Nina in 1998. .. And so, with this idea, looked at together with this general advent's being set to occur again more at this point looked at more generally, a similar impetus being in play, again perhaps, lending to a more significant warming where looking at the broader equatorial Pacific.


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#11
iFred

Posted 16 June 2014 - 07:19 AM

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Great predictions so far. I will clean up the thread as time goes on, moving all of the posts that don't have a succinct prediction in them.



#12
Phil

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:42 PM

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Am reducing my estimate to 1.0, a reduction of 0.2
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#13
Chris

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:51 PM

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Am reducing my estimate to 1.0, a reduction of 0.2

 

Peaking when?



#14
Phil

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:59 PM

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Peaking when?


Sticking to my overall prediction, made awhile ago. Thinking we see a second peak during boreal winter:

As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate El Niño, probably either peaking early and/or featuring two peaks. I base this prediction on stratospheric, solar, and internal parameters..with the Sun/QBO coupling ultimately determining whether or not the upcoming ENSO warming during March/April/May will sustain or recoil into a chaotic mess.

This should be an interesting evolution, as the global circulatory network is now moving away from the dominating 1998-2012 regime.


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#15
seattleweatherguy

Posted 16 August 2014 - 07:51 PM

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my prediciton is no nino but warm neural 



#16
Phil

Posted 18 August 2014 - 02:01 PM

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The KW in the CPAC is going strong...should get us into Niño territory again by October:

http://www.cpc.ncep....e/wkxzteq.shtml
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#17
richard mann

Posted 19 August 2014 - 11:48 AM

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The KW in the CPAC is going strong...should get us into Niño territory again by October:


.. Still going with this then professor. ?

http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=28640    @  @
 
@


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#18
Phil

Posted 19 August 2014 - 11:57 AM

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I'd reduce my prediction to 0.8-1.1, instead of my original call of 1.1-1.3
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#19
Black Hole

Posted 20 August 2014 - 09:05 AM

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Phil is right about the KW. It looks pretty healthy.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F