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January 500mb Anomalies For Various Periods 1948 to Present

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#1
snow_wizard

Posted 21 January 2014 - 06:29 PM

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I just ran some composites for January 500mb anomalies for North America and the NE Pacific and the results ares stunning.  It's incredible how certain anomaly patterns can lock in for decades and then drastically change to something different.  To have such extreme anomaly signatures show up over such long time periods is pretty amazing.  Anyway this clearly shows why January has sucked balls since 1980.  The composite for 2007-13 is certainly an improvement from 1981-2006, but still a long way to go.  The first two maps are from the cold phase.  One is 1948-1980 and the other 1949-57.  The next one is from the warm phase 1981-2006.  The last map is from 2007-13.  Obviously we need the positive center to move NW for things to get good.

 

1948-1980.png

 

1949-57.png

 

1981-2006.png

 

2007-13.png


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#2
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 21 January 2014 - 08:14 PM

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I now see why 5 out of the last 7 Januaries (going on 6 out of 8 this year) were so horrible for Socal. However, last year going into this year has had the driest weather overall.



#3
snow_wizard

Posted 21 January 2014 - 11:18 PM

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I now see why 5 out of the last 7 Januaries (going on 8 this year) were so horrible for Socal. However, last year going into this year has had the driest weather overall.


No question out of the 4 maps the most recent is the worst for you. I certainly hope we see that positive center jump NW over the next few years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#4
BLI snowman

Posted 21 January 2014 - 11:33 PM

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We haven't had a -PNA January since 2008

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

 

Last January PNA of -1.00 or lower was in 1972. In that same timeframe, we've had 10 Januaries with a PNA of 1.00 or higher.

 

Positive PNA has probably come to dominate January more than any other month. It's kind of crazy. One of these years the atmosphere will probably just s**t out a January with an extreme reversal of this decades-long pattern. Just a question of when. 



#5
Black Hole

Posted 21 January 2014 - 11:36 PM

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This thread is an example of one that we should put in the National discussion area. I will move it tomorrow.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#6
snow_wizard

Posted 21 January 2014 - 11:40 PM

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This thread is an example of one that we should put in the National discussion area. I will move it tomorrow.


I say we should leave it. We only have two threads in the NW section. Not good IMO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#7
TT-SEA

Posted 22 January 2014 - 06:05 AM

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Just a thought after looking at the evolution above... it could be another 50 years before it goes back to the previous regime.     Or more.

 

If that is the case... not sure it will matter to any of us unless you are planning to live forever.



#8
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 22 January 2014 - 10:24 AM

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Just a thought after looking at the evolution above... it could be another 50 years before it goes back to the previous regime.     Or more.

 

If that is the case... not sure it will matter to any of us unless you are planning to live forever.

Your not 19 years old? B)



#9
Brennan

Posted 23 January 2014 - 08:43 AM

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I don’t understand why 

 

This thread is an example of one that we should put in the National discussion area. I will move it tomorrow.

Why is this stuff so sensitive? I don’t understand why topics in this forum have to be so specified to PNW weather. Lets open it up a bit. This is a great thread for this section of the forum. 



#10
Black Hole

Posted 23 January 2014 - 11:24 PM

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Brennen, the info contained in it is also interesting to me because it represents the weather here as well. And it also represents weather all across the country from a historical perspective. Not everybody from say Chicago wants to read through the PNW forum on the off chance there are interesting threads. Similarly, you probably don't read their stuff. It would be a shame if some great research went to waste because nobody knew to look at it.


  • Chris likes this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#11
Black Hole

Posted 23 January 2014 - 11:25 PM

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Basically we want to run this website similarly to the way AmericanWx does from a layout perspective. National disco and subforums for regions.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#12
Phil

Posted 25 January 2014 - 06:35 AM

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Basically we want to run this website similarly to the way AmericanWx does from a layout perspective. National disco and subforums for regions.


AmericanWx did not break up the community into subforums until it was large enough to do so. I personally don't think we're ready for that just yet.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#13
snow_wizard

Posted 25 January 2014 - 10:30 AM

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Brennen, the info contained in it is also interesting to me because it represents the weather here as well. And it also represents weather all across the country from a historical perspective. Not everybody from say Chicago wants to read through the PNW forum on the off chance there are interesting threads. Similarly, you probably don't read their stuff. It would be a shame if some great research went to waste because nobody knew to look at it.

 

I wonder if some threads should be posted in 2 places.  More people may see it that way.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#14
Phil

Posted 25 January 2014 - 11:43 AM

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Honestly I think (for now) we should have 4 pinned threads on one forum.

- NW US
- SW US
- Central US
- Eastern US

This way the community is not divided and will have more opportunity for inter-forum communication and growth.

This is how EasternWX got so big. Only when the forums were large enough to warrant subforums, were they implemented over there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#15
iFred

Posted 25 January 2014 - 06:24 PM

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Honestly I think (for now) we should have 4 pinned threads on one forum.

- NW US
- SW US
- Central US
- Eastern US

This way the community is not divided and will have more opportunity for inter-forum communication and growth.

This is how EasternWX got so big. Only when the forums were large enough to warrant subforums, were they implemented over there.

 

While I appreciate your input, the forums were split out for now, and when they are under utilized, they will be merged appropriately. If you want to discuss this further, I would encourage you to start a PM thread with me, Black Hole, and Dominic.



#16
Black Hole

Posted 25 January 2014 - 07:40 PM

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When we move topics we can leave a link back to the source. I will do that for this one.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#17
Karl Bonner

Posted 30 January 2014 - 07:44 PM

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Could you post a similar map for December, Snow Wizard?  I bet you'd discover the exact opposite trend in the 500mb anomalies - a sign that over the past 3-4 decades our winters seem to be coming "earlier."  January used to be slightly colder than December most places, but the 1981-2010 climatology moved the coldest weather to December, and reduced our winter seasonal temperature lag to pretty much zero!



#18
Black Hole

Posted 01 February 2014 - 09:01 AM

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Send snow wizard a PM, perhaps he hasn't read this thread in a while.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#19
snow_wizard

Posted 02 February 2014 - 06:54 PM

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Could you post a similar map for December, Snow Wizard?  I bet you'd discover the exact opposite trend in the 500mb anomalies - a sign that over the past 3-4 decades our winters seem to be coming "earlier."  January used to be slightly colder than December most places, but the 1981-2010 climatology moved the coldest weather to December, and reduced our winter seasonal temperature lag to pretty much zero!


Yes...that would be kind of interesting to look at.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#20
Glacier

Posted 06 January 2015 - 10:07 PM

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The '49 to '57 Januaries were absolutely brutal here in British Columbia. With the exception of 1953 and 1955, all of the them were below average. Ironically, 1955 was the 2nd coldest year on record after 1916. January 1950 was the coldest month of all time by wide margin. 20.9C (37.6F) below average in Prince George and Vavenby. I have been told that January 1950 was quite mild in eastern North America, which would follow given that pattern.