Tom Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 Anybody going on the Chain this weekend? We are taking my buddy's cigarette boat to the sandbar on Petite Lake this Saturday. Hoping the storms hold off till later in the day or miss us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of record low temps get set in in the Plains next week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 This cool shot coming is something else. Was just looking at the 850 mb temperatures. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Very impressive! Gonna be fall-like. I have a couple questions about the LRC. Does it start over again in October? And how do they know when the new LRC begins? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Yes, the LRC begins its new cycle towards the beginning of October through roughly mid/late November each year. You won't know really how long the cycle is till you see it repeating its first cycle in December or very late November. A normal cycle is between 55-61 days. The LRC Theory is based on a concept that the weather pattern begins each year's new cycle in October. From there you will find out how long each cycle will be for the remaining calendar year beginning in October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 cool thanks. I just didnt know why it always started in October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Wow...local met is saying potential 60s for highs next week and that there could be some record cold highs. And we're talking mid July! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Des Moines:PRESENT THINKING IS THAT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY...AS MAY BE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 When does this cool shot look to subside? Does next weekend look to return back to normal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 I don't think I have ever seen an illustration like this one posted by LOT...wow, PV in Summer time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 When's it supposed to retreat, Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 The wx will be better up north by next weekend, near seasonal temps. Its a quick hitting Mon-Wed cool shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Brian, I just checked the 00z Euro run and it brings temps near 80F next Fri/Sat in N Wisco....that goes for the entire region as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Polar Vortex in July???? say what???! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 12z GFS doesnt look too warm in the next 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Polar Vortex in July???? say what???!I blame global climate change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Took a look at the SST since the last time I posted them and it looks like the central Pacific cooled off and the warm body of water in the NE Pacific grew in size. El Nino prospects continue to dwindle if this trend continues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 I have tickets to the Cubs game on Saturday. I saw the NWS was mentioning a possible 2+" in some spots... If that were to happen overnight and part of the morning, would that have an effect on the game that day? Really hope it doesn't get cancelled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 At least with the below normal pattern that is set to stick around for the next 1-2 weeks, rainfall wont be as impressive and persistent. This weekends storms may be the last heavy rains for a while. D**n mosquitos are relentless this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 from local methttp://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/12.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Des Moines pm disco:MONDAY NIGHT LOWS AND TUE HIGHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD LOWS/MIN MAXES RESPECTIVELY. GFS ENSEMBLE LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REACH MINUS 2 TO 3 SDS WITH VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MT/ND. IN FACT GFS SURFACE THETA-E DROPS 65K FROM THE WEEKEND INTO TUE MORNING AT DES MOINES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Will there be clouds and showers with this cool shot? DMX makes it sound like high pressure but isnt it a Low thats coming down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Accuweather's take on cool shot:http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-returns-midwest-storms/30180885 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Brian, I just checked the 00z Euro run and it brings temps near 80F next Fri/Sat in N Wisco....that goes for the entire region as well.Thanks Tom! I would gladly take that all day. Hope it holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Remember that big storm that was featured in the LRC in early October of last year in SD that killed all that cattle and that hit MN/Upper Midwest with not just 1, but 2 Blizzards??? It's cycling through once again in July around the 20/21! Its fascinating to see it appear once again. @ Brian, next weekend is looking more and more superb in our region. I think I'm heading up to Castle Rock Lake this time since I didn't go during the 4th of July weekend. Another beauty shaping up with no precip and a SW Flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Just want to get this clear; the upcoming cool shot is NOT a result of the polar vortex. It's just late season pool of cool air that'll be coming down to the US. Not every cool down is a result of the PV... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Just want to get this clear; the upcoming cool shot is NOT a result of the polar vortex. It's just late season pool of cool air that'll be coming down to the US. Not every cool down is a result of the PV...ive read that it is from the PV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 just read an article on the weather centre and the are saying that this upcoming winter is going to be more severe that they are closely looking the sea temprature near greenland and near alaska so that means thatcentral to eastren conus will be twice as cold from last winter with much below normal temps and much above normal snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 @theweatherman, I also read that article and last year I believed we would have another severe winter on the table due to the cyclical patterns we see from time to time that set up in the NE Pacific. I'm starting to feel more confident that the following winter will be another extremely cold/snowy season. Lot's to still iron out, especially the new LRC cycle, so lets enjoy the summer while we can because another fast start to winter is on the horizon this year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Can you guys post a link to that article? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 You many want to bookmark Andrew's page...http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com On another note, looks like tomorrow night may bring a big severe wx outbreak with some nocturnal storms. Gotta watch this develop later tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 You many want to bookmark Andrew's page...http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com On another note, looks like tomorrow night may bring a big severe wx outbreak with some nocturnal storms. Gotta watch this develop later tomorrow.Just keep it away from the Cubs game and that's fine with me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2014 Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 950 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 TORNADO WATCH 412 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-075-089-091-093-095-097-099-103- 105-111-113-123-125-141-143-175-179-197-201-203-130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0412.140713T0250Z-140713T0600Z/ IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MASON MCHENRY MCLEAN OGLE PEORIA STARK TAZEWELL WILL WINNEBAGO WOODFORD Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 13, 2014 Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 great article on this upcoming winter...thanks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 DMX long range for next week:ALL LONG RANGE INDICATORS AGREE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE POWERFULLY...RESULTING IN A LIKELIHOOD OF DRY AND MUCH HOTTER WEATHER FOR ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z Euro ensembles hinting at a mini heat wave Mon-Thu for our region next week...we'll see if that holds. I think next week may bring more severe weather as another big cool down is in store. NW Flow looks to take hold as this transient patter that has been persistent this year summer takes hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Tom - everything still pointing towards beautiful weather this weekend in N WI? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not sure if this means anything, but having this cooldown (PV Visit) in July coming up this week could be the beginnings of what could be another severe winter on the way. Also, another big cooldown next week as well doesnt happen too often inn July.I wonder how much influence El Nino will be this upcoming winter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 The big cool shot coming tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday is still apart of the LRC cycle from way back in October/November last year. I'm sure the new LRC cycle next year will have plenty of visits of the PV next winter. If the El Nino does evolve this fall/winter, I believe it will fuel larger significant systems. Last year we really didn't get to many monster storms/blizzards that effected the Midwest/Lakes/OV regions. Nonetheless, I believe it will be another fantastic winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Breezy and quite pleasant tonight. Should get into the mid 50s with no problem! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.