FiNsTa Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why does everyone think that the cool down is a result of the PV? Just because there is a dip in the jet stream doesn't mean that it is a result of the PV. The polar vortex is a cold air cyclone in the far north that rarely makes its way out of the arctic. A 15-20 degree temperaure drop for a couple days in mid-July is significant. However, that doesn't mean that it's the result of the PV. It's just a surge of cool air from Canada due to a trough created by the typhoon in Japan. Guess every cool down is a result of the PV LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 If you look at the source region of where this cold pool and/or vortex came from ( you can clearly see the spin of this system on satellite imagery) you can't deny it came from the polar regions, hence, a Polar Vortex. Similar set up that happened back during the last week of January. From what I have learned and read, you can get these situations to evolve in the summer time. Your definition of a Polar Vortex being a cold air cyclone is true and if you see a 5 day simulation of this PV, you can see it came from the Polar regions, the source region of this cold out break. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why does everyone think that the cool down is a result of the PV? Just because there is a dip in the jet stream doesn't mean that it is a result of the PV. The polar vortex is a cold air cyclone in the far north that rarely makes its way out of the arctic. A 15-20 degree temperaure drop for a couple days in mid-July is significant. However, that doesn't mean that it's the result of the PV. It's just a surge of cool air from Canada due to a trough created by the typhoon in Japan. Guess every cool down is a result of the PV LOL.Well....every meteorologist on tv and the net is talking about how it is from the PV. So why dont you believe it? In fact on CBS this morning they were talking about how this could be a serious issue in the future and it may happen more frequently. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 How's the cold weather back home? It's 88 and sunny here in Jamacia 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Beautiful fall day today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Went to bed last night with my window cracked open a bit and I woke up a bit chilly! Wasn't expecting to feel that chill in the air. Certainly feels and looks like an autumn day today. Clouds even look fall-like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yup.....66 and mostly cloudy here! and breezy. I'll have to check what the ecord cold high is for today. We have to be close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 JMA model comes out with its monthly seasonal forecast in the next couple of days. I think we see the model catch on to a much colder look over the eastern 2/3 of Canada and the U.S. for next winter. June's forecast was blow torchy, obviously that's not going to happen with a similar SST set up as last winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 Tom, can you imagine next winter being more severe than last. Only thing I can think of for next winter being different than last is have stronger, bigger, more monster storms. Also, more of a tilt this time around too. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 Jamacia is still very nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 Nikos, with the warmer than normal waters off of the Greenland coastline building, it would suggest that we develop a -NAO this Winter and next Spring. If that happens, you can see some major storms to develop as they have time to slow down and go neg tilt as you mentioned. We did not have that last year. It also implies we will see some nastier cold outbreaks that hit and stay, maybe longer intrusions of the Polar Vortex, even possible deeper intrusions farther south like they did in the late 70's. Today had a definitive Autumnal feel to it. By early next week, it will be a distant memory as heat and humidity build in from the SW. Summer will make a comeback which I don't mind at all. This dry stretch of weather will be nice as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 Nikos, with the warmer than normal waters off of the Greenland coastline building, it would suggest that we develop a -NAO this Winter and next Spring. If that happens, you can see some major storms to develop as they have time to slow down and go neg tilt as you mentioned. We did not have that last year. It also implies we will see some nastier cold outbreaks that hit and stay, maybe longer intrusions of the Polar Vortex, even possible deeper intrusions farther south like they did in the late 70's. Today had a definitive Autumnal feel to it. By early next week, it will be a distant memory as heat and humidity build in from the SW. Summer will make a comeback which I don't mind at all. This dry stretch of weather will be nice as well.this has to be set in stone by this fall the way it sounds that this winter will be twice as nasty than last winter because the gulf of alaska and near greenland by the warmer water tempratures and the way it sounds that we will have a -nao -epo/wpo +pna and -ao with a negative tilt so that means the greatlakes to the northeast will be in line for bowling ball monster snowstorms to turn into blizzards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 It was a very brisk night in N WI where some spotty upper 30's were reported this morning! Pretty wild. Not to terribly surprised that today's shoreline temps are only in the low 60's around Chicago, the Crib's water temp is at 62F today according to WGN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 Yep - neighbor up there said patchy frost was reported in spots. Middle of July right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 just read on the weather centre that long range forecasting models is indicating that eurasia will be snowy in october so that means that they will have a healthy snowpack by november so that means canada will start to snow by early to mid november and down into the united states by late november into december(just looking at a forecasting model that canada will be snowy in novenber towards the beginingb of the month so that means that the northren us will be snowy by the end of november). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 Wow, wasn't expecting patchy frost in mid July in N Wisco! It's a testament to how cold that air really was originating from the arctic regions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 In anticipation of the new July JMA seasonal forecast run, I am thinking the model lowers the chances of an El Nino this Winter. 2 other models the UKMET & Australian model have the 3.4 ENSO barely reaching 0.5C. Just a thought as we see the physical drivers carry the weight in the Pacific and the Super Nino that was once a threat by some, is now a distant memory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 In anticipation of the new July JMA seasonal forecast run, I am thinking the model lowers the chances of an El Nino this Winter. 2 other models the UKMET & Australian model have the 3.4 ENSO barely reaching 0.5C. Just a thought as we see the physical drivers carry the weight in the Pacific and the Super Nino that was once a threat by some, is now a distant memory.correct tom that the super el nino is a distant memory and i knew right from the top that this was a bust and the the mets said that too that it was going to happen but the news that they were wrong that this winter is going to be a repeat from last winter but i heard that this one is two times as worse than last winter with this being severe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 also was looking that ninos 1+2 and 3 has above normal water tempratures that iam thinking that this will soon be cooler when time comes(just found out by the accuweather fourms that the remaining heat over the enso region will be gone by nextweek). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 Nice new write-up from Andrew about upcoming winter. He's favoring a colder forecast.http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted July 17, 2014 Report Share Posted July 17, 2014 The NAO and AO are so difficult to predict this far out I'm surprised people Patrick discussing a -NAO like it is imminent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 17, 2014 Report Share Posted July 17, 2014 Any progress on starting a separate, dedicated thread to the upcoming winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 17, 2014 Report Share Posted July 17, 2014 haha yeah....it seems like we are already talking more about upcoming winter than anything else 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2014 Report Share Posted July 17, 2014 I think I'm going to start a new thread.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Sounds like the "heat wave" next week will only last a few days. And even at that temps will only be 5 or so degrees above normal as current avg highs are mid-upper 80s. The humidity will be the difference maker with dewpoints in the 70s. Actually, our local met has highs staying in the upper 80s so nothing too extreme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 was just looking at the climate prediction centers website and they still is showing an el nino watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Last year the water temp near Chicago shoreline was 78F, this year it is 65F...big difference. I'm heading to Oak Street beach Sunday...we'll see how many beach goers head into the waters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Blazing heat dome looks to develop next week Mon-Wed in Kansas/Nebraska. Then triple digit heat transfers into KS/MO by next weekend. It'll be interesting to see how far north this dome of heat tries to move northward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 19, 2014 Report Share Posted July 19, 2014 was reading something intresting about the el nino supposed to be forecasted this year that the noaa is still forecasting a weak to moderate el nino for this winter while the austrilan bureau of meterology is saying the oppsite they are saying that the weat to moderate is a no show this year so that means that we will have a colder winter and more snow this winter than last because like tom has stated on this fourm that the southren jet is going to cause the monster pan handle hook and nor easters this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2014 Head home from Jamaica tomorrow, sad sad times. I will say, while I enjoy this heat while I'm here, I am very glad we don't have it like this all the time. This is the weather I just hate when I'm back home and have to do more than just sit around at the pool and beach. And after I posted that, I saw Monday and Tuesday are highs of 88 and 90. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 19, 2014 Report Share Posted July 19, 2014 just read an article from the weather centre that they are saying a death ridge is going to form in the mountain states and dangerous thunderstorms on the northren fringe of the heat dome that is shooting up into canada and down across the westren greatlakes from minnesota to illinois and down to kentucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 19, 2014 Report Share Posted July 19, 2014 Latest CPC temp outlook week 1-2.... This may in fact be a tell tale sign from Mother Nature as to how the below normal temps layout for this upcoming winter season. I like this placement, farther east than last year. Our region still in the heart of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 20, 2014 Report Share Posted July 20, 2014 It looks like the heat wave will only be a couple days and then back to below normal temps and then even cooler a week out.DMX:THEN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A HUGE 500 MB LOW PRESSURE GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS IOWA FROM AROUND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 20, 2014 Report Share Posted July 20, 2014 the cpc is saying that the greatlakes will be below normal within the next 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 20, 2014 Report Share Posted July 20, 2014 updated CPC 1-2 weekshttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 20, 2014 Report Share Posted July 20, 2014 with this setup right now in july that we might have an early fall and winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 21, 2014 Report Share Posted July 21, 2014 just heard from accuweather fourms that the el nino still going to happen this fall but that is a lie because i heard that the eoso is cooling that the northeast pacific and the north atlantic is warming so the el nino is a no show this upcoming winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted July 21, 2014 Report Share Posted July 21, 2014 could be looking at a weak to moderate la nina(was looking at the 7 day sst forecast and the cooler waters is getting to the warm waters so that means that the el nino that is forecasted is a no show this year). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2014 Man these next two days are gonna be warm, but at least I am used to it now after being in Jamaica for a week. Sad to be back, but I do like how the weather is looking after tomorrow. Just not a fan of the heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2014 Report Share Posted July 21, 2014 I am prob speaking for a lot of the members on this board, IMO thus far this summer it has been very nice, not hot, very active and cooler. Last summer was pretty similar except it warmed up a lot in August. I don't see that happening this August. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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