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July 2014 Observations and Discussion


East Dubzz

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Why does everyone think that the cool down is a result of the PV? Just because there is a dip in the jet stream doesn't mean that it is a result of the PV. The polar vortex is a cold air cyclone in the far north that rarely makes its way out of the arctic. A 15-20 degree temperaure drop for a couple days in mid-July is significant. However, that doesn't mean that it's the result of the PV. It's just a surge of cool air from Canada due to a trough created by the typhoon in Japan. Guess every cool down is a result of the PV LOL.

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If you look at the source region of where this cold pool and/or vortex came from ( you can clearly see the spin of this system on satellite imagery) you can't deny it came from the polar regions, hence, a Polar Vortex.  Similar set up that happened back during the last week of January.  From what I have learned and read, you can get these situations to evolve in the summer time.

 

Your definition of a Polar Vortex being a cold air cyclone is true and if you see a 5 day simulation of this PV, you can see it came from the Polar regions, the source region of this cold out break.

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Why does everyone think that the cool down is a result of the PV? Just because there is a dip in the jet stream doesn't mean that it is a result of the PV. The polar vortex is a cold air cyclone in the far north that rarely makes its way out of the arctic. A 15-20 degree temperaure drop for a couple days in mid-July is significant. However, that doesn't mean that it's the result of the PV. It's just a surge of cool air from Canada due to a trough created by the typhoon in Japan. Guess every cool down is a result of the PV LOL.

Well....every meteorologist on tv and the net is talking about how it is from the PV. So why dont you believe it? In fact on CBS this morning they were talking about how this could be a serious issue in the future and it may happen more frequently.

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Went to bed last night with my window cracked open a bit and I woke up a bit chilly!  Wasn't expecting to feel that chill in the air.  Certainly feels and looks like an autumn day today.  Clouds even look fall-like.

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JMA model comes out with its monthly seasonal forecast in the next couple of days.  I think we see the model catch on to a much colder look over the eastern 2/3 of Canada and the U.S. for next winter.  June's forecast was blow torchy, obviously that's not going to happen with a similar SST set up as last winter.

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Tom, can you imagine next winter being more severe than last. Only thing I can think of for next winter being different than last is have stronger, bigger, more monster storms. Also, more of a tilt this time around too.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nikos, with the warmer than normal waters off of the Greenland coastline building, it would suggest that we develop a -NAO this Winter and next Spring.  If that happens, you can see some major storms to develop as they have time to slow down and go neg tilt as you mentioned.  We did not have that last year.  It also implies we will see some nastier cold outbreaks that hit and stay, maybe longer intrusions of the Polar Vortex, even possible deeper intrusions farther south like they did in the late 70's.

 

 

Today had a definitive Autumnal feel to it.  By early next week, it will be a distant memory as heat and humidity build in from the SW.  Summer will make a comeback which I don't mind at all.  This dry stretch of weather will be nice as well.

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Nikos, with the warmer than normal waters off of the Greenland coastline building, it would suggest that we develop a -NAO this Winter and next Spring.  If that happens, you can see some major storms to develop as they have time to slow down and go neg tilt as you mentioned.  We did not have that last year.  It also implies we will see some nastier cold outbreaks that hit and stay, maybe longer intrusions of the Polar Vortex, even possible deeper intrusions farther south like they did in the late 70's.

 

 

Today had a definitive Autumnal feel to it.  By early next week, it will be a distant memory as heat and humidity build in from the SW.  Summer will make a comeback which I don't mind at all.  This dry stretch of weather will be nice as well.

this has to be set in stone by this fall the way it sounds that this winter will be twice as nasty than last winter because the gulf of alaska and near greenland by the warmer water tempratures and the way it sounds that we will have a -nao -epo/wpo +pna and -ao with a negative tilt so that means the greatlakes to the northeast will be in line for bowling ball monster snowstorms to turn into blizzards.

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It was a very brisk night in N WI where some spotty upper 30's were reported this morning!  Pretty wild.  Not to terribly surprised that today's shoreline temps are only in the low 60's around Chicago, the Crib's water temp is at 62F today according to WGN.

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just read on the weather centre that long range forecasting models is indicating that eurasia will be snowy in october so that means that they will have a healthy snowpack by november so that means canada will start to snow by early to mid november and down into the united states by late november into december(just looking at a forecasting model that canada will be snowy in novenber towards the beginingb of the month so that means that the northren us will be snowy by the end of november).

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In anticipation of the new July JMA seasonal forecast run, I am thinking the model lowers the chances of an El Nino this Winter.  2 other models the UKMET & Australian model have the 3.4 ENSO barely reaching 0.5C.  Just a thought as we see the physical drivers carry the weight in the Pacific and the Super Nino that was once a threat by some, is now a distant memory.

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In anticipation of the new July JMA seasonal forecast run, I am thinking the model lowers the chances of an El Nino this Winter.  2 other models the UKMET & Australian model have the 3.4 ENSO barely reaching 0.5C.  Just a thought as we see the physical drivers carry the weight in the Pacific and the Super Nino that was once a threat by some, is now a distant memory.

correct tom that the super el nino is a distant memory and i knew right from the top that this was a bust and the the mets said that too that it was going to happen but the news that they were wrong that this winter is going to be a repeat from last winter but i heard that this one is two times as worse than last winter with this being severe.

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Sounds like the "heat wave" next week will only last a few days. And even at that temps will only be 5 or so degrees above normal as current avg highs are mid-upper 80s. The humidity will be the difference maker with dewpoints in the 70s. Actually, our local met has highs staying in the upper 80s so nothing too extreme.

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Blazing heat dome looks to develop next week Mon-Wed in Kansas/Nebraska.  Then triple digit heat transfers into KS/MO by next weekend.  It'll be interesting to see how far north this dome of heat tries to move northward.

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was reading something intresting about the el nino supposed to be forecasted this year that the noaa is still forecasting a weak to moderate el nino for this winter while the austrilan bureau of meterology is saying the oppsite they are saying that the weat to moderate is a no show this year so that means that we will have a colder winter and more snow this winter than last because like tom has stated on this fourm that the southren jet is going to cause the monster pan handle hook and nor easters this winter.

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Head home from Jamaica tomorrow, sad sad times. I will say, while I enjoy this heat while I'm here, I am very glad we don't have it like this all the time. This is the weather I just hate when I'm back home and have to do more than just sit around at the pool and beach.

 

And after I posted that, I saw Monday and Tuesday are highs of 88 and 90. Lol.

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just read an article from the weather centre that they are saying a death ridge is going to form in the mountain states and dangerous thunderstorms on the northren fringe of the heat dome that is shooting up into canada and down across the westren greatlakes from minnesota to illinois and down to kentucky.

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Latest CPC temp outlook week 1-2....

 

 

This may in fact be a tell tale sign from Mother Nature as to how the below normal temps layout for this upcoming winter season.  I like this placement, farther east than last year.  Our region still in the heart of it.

 

 

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It looks like the heat wave will only be a couple days and then back to below normal temps and then even cooler a week out.

DMX:
THEN FROM  
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A HUGE 500 MB LOW PRESSURE  
GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES  
BRINGING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS IOWA  
FROM AROUND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

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I am prob speaking for a lot of the members on this board, IMO thus far this summer it has been very nice, not hot, very active and cooler.  Last summer was pretty similar except it warmed up a lot in August.  I don't see that happening this August. 

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