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July 2014 Observations and Discussion


East Dubzz

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GFS looks below normal throughout recent runs. How is Euro looking, or other models?

Euro about the same with highs in the 70's, coolest days look to be Mon/Tue, another gorgeous week on tap next week with no rain whatsoever through next weekend!  I could get used to these temps.

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Euro about the same with highs in the 70's, coolest days look to be Mon/Tue, another gorgeous week on tap next week with no rain whatsoever through next weekend!  I could get used to these temps.

but i think that the earth is cooling not global warming because the summers supposed to be hot and not a visit from the polar vortex in the summer time and the way you has pointed it out tom that we might have a cool and chilly autum and my thinking that vwinter will hit us early by thanksgiving this year if this keeps up.

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but i think that the earth is cooling not global warming because the summers supposed to be hot and not a visit from the polar vortex in the summer time and the way you has pointed it out tom that we might have a cool and chilly autum and my thinking that vwinter will hit us early by thanksgiving this year if this keeps up.

It would be nice to have a white Thanksgiving!  Haven't seen one of those in a long time.  I remember last year it was pretty chilly with highs in the low/mid 40's.

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We are indeed cooling off globally over the last 5 years and will continue over the next 20-30 years.  Especially considering the Sun will be heading towards a very quiet period in terms of sun spots or solar flares.  I can get used to the kind of winter we had last year if this is a sign of what we can expect.  Obviously you will have bounce back winters where they aren't as brutal.

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Picked up 0.49" of rain this morning, about half to a third of what I was hoping for.  Now it's back to dry weather for the next 7-10 days.  The heavier rain band parked just to my west and southwest, where up to 2-4 inches fell.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Parts of N Alaska today had highs today in the upper 30's!  Autumn is slowing building in the northern latitudes.  By the beginning of August, there are a couple strong cold shots beginning to hit N Canada as we head into August.  Won't be long till we start feeling those towards September.  I remember last year Labor Day weekend it was darn chilly around these parts.

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Parts of N Alaska today had highs today in the upper 30's!  Autumn is slowing building in the northern latitudes.  By the beginning of August, there are a couple strong cold shots beginning to hit N Canada as we head into August.  Won't be long till we start feeling those towards September.  I remember last year Labor Day weekend it was darn chilly around these parts.

this is a classic sign that autum is going to hit us in the us early this year since northren alaska got into the upper 30s today and like you pointed out that august will have a couple of strong cold shots so that means this is not el nino weather and this winter could hit us around thanksgiving and i rember about that time last year it got so cold.

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Lake Michigan is churning up the waters and as a result of full fetch NNE winds.  Cooler waters have been pushed ashore near Chicago and not a whole lot of warm water on this map.

 

Water temps did hit 70F for the first time this summer last week, but now are back in the mid 60's.

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Water temps in the low/mid 50's have made it down to just east of Chicago's shoreline.  The lake has cooled dramatically over the last couple days.  Some of that colder water from down below certainly has mixed in.

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8-14 still looking a bit below normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Tom, this maybe a stupid question, but is this why the storms, or at least the few "MCS" type systems we have had this year die out once they reach Kane? Is the cooler waters cooling and subsequently capping the atmosphere that far inland? It seems that the line falls apart right after Dekalb and then reintensify as it moves near NW IN or the Southern CWA. I also was thinking about the direction of the winds and if they come off the lake. I know that there is usually or almost always a cap around the counties right near the lake, but this years severe weather season has been terrible, for me at least, and I was wondering if this was the cause; especially after the extremely cold winter we had. Thanks!

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Tom, this maybe a stupid question, but is this why the storms, or at least the few "MCS" type systems we have had this year die out once they reach Kane? Is the cooler waters cooling and subsequently capping the atmosphere that far inland? It seems that the line falls apart right after Dekalb and then reintensify as it moves near NW IN or the Southern CWA. I also was thinking about the direction of the winds and if they come off the lake. I know that there is usually or almost always a cap around the counties right near the lake, but this years severe weather season has been terrible, for me at least, and I was wondering if this was the cause; especially after the extremely cold winter we had. Thanks!

You certainly have a valid point that if the winds do come off the lake, the lake will have an effect on weakening storms as they head towards the lake because of the stable air coming off the lake.  Kane county is rather far from the lake and I'm not sure it is 100% a fact that the lake has been weakening storms as they head by you.  You may just be in the wrong place and the wrong time to get severe wx.  I live right by O'Hare and we had some powerhouse storms earlier this summer with hail and very strong winds.

 

Today and tomorrow the lake cold front may spark some storms closer to the lake!  Complete opposite relationship to what you were asking.  This is due to very cold conditions aloft and the lake front helps bubble up storms as the unstable air gets lifted into the atmosphere and storms form.

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local met posted this:
t has been a cooler-than-normal summer so far, and it looks like that trend will continue through much of August.

The average temperatures have been below normal for July.

Here is the data from July 1-27:

- Waterloo: 69.2 degrees (4.6 degrees below normal)

- Dubuque: 67.6 degrees (4.4 degrees below normal)

- Cedar Rapids: 68.7 degrees (4.3 degrees below normal)

- Iowa City: 69.9 degrees (5.0 degrees below normal)

Dubuque and Cedar Rapids have not had a high temperature of 90+ so far this year. Waterloo and Iowa City have only done it once so far.

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Hey Guys, many of you may not know but Dominick has passed away today.  I found this information on Facebook not too long ago and it saddens my heart to hear of this news.  I don't know the reason or why he was on life support.  I communicated with him back in the Winter/Spring on FB and he told me he went to the hospital bc he was terribly sick but did not know the extent of it.  Maybe someone from this site may know the details. 

 

Because of Dominick, he introduced me to this Forum and I will never forget that as I have learned so much about the weather reading each others posts and also meeting new people across Chicago and the Midwest/Plains.  I will miss his enthusiasm when Winter arrives as he and I spoke almost daily about snowstorms.  Rest in Peace Dom!

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Hey Guys, many of you may not know but Dominick has passed away today.  I found this information on Facebook not too long ago and it saddens my heart to hear of this news.  I don't know the reason or why he was on life support.  I communicated with him back in the Winter/Spring on FB and he told me he went to the hospital bc he was terribly sick but did not know the extent of it.  Maybe someone from this site may know the details. 

 

Because of Dominick, he introduced me to this Forum and I will never forget that as I have learned so much about the weather reading each others posts and also meeting new people across Chicago and the Midwest/Plains.  I will miss his enthusiasm when Winter arrives as he and I spoke almost daily about snowstorms.  Rest in Peace Dom!

this is so sad and day.

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That is just terrible news to hear. Do you know now old he was, Tom?

 

No matter the age, he was far too young. Prayers and thoughts to him and anyone that is impacted by his death. Puts a knot in my stomach just thinking about it. Sometimes life in just unfair, again prayers and thoughts to him and anyone else impacted.

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That is just terrible news to hear. Do you know now old he was, Tom?

 

No matter the age, he was far too young. Prayers and thoughts to him and anyone that is impacted by his death. Puts a knot in my stomach just thinking about it. Sometimes life in just unfair, again prayers and thoughts to him and anyone else impacted.

He just turned 26 on July 4th, everyone on FB is shocked...Dominick Rocco is his Full Name.

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Been gone too long...

Omg, I did not know about Dominic's situation at all! That's so sad, especially that he was only 26!

I remember talking to him a long time ago on the Old farmer's almanac site. Then I caught up with him here several years into the future. He definitely helped direct me to the weather forums online and at least partially, inspired me to post weather observations online (Facebook etc.). He was very inspired by the weather, especially in the fall going into winter!

 

Prayers to Him and his Family! He will be missed. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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