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Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season


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#1
Tom

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:13 AM

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With all the excitement brewing for this upcoming winter season, I figure a separate thread would be advantageous.  Let's discuss....

 

 



#2
james1976

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:44 AM

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I posted this in the July thread but figured it belongs more in here. Latest from Andrew's blog.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/



#3
james1976

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:49 AM

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http://www.liveweath...cast?groupid=16

After a record year in the Midwest & the East Coast, El Nino will have a huge impact going into the 2014-2015 winter season. Here in late June we see a 76% chance of El Nino at this point and we feel this is GAME ON in a month or so!

The biggest influence will be in the South as the southern jet and El Nino produce a few big time winter storms with snow and ice.  The key to the entire winter will be the intensity of the now trending El Nino. The trend would be to a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino and depending on where you live this will have an small or large impact on your winter forecast.



#4
Tom

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:17 AM

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Andrew's on the ball, but the other guy is in lala land IMO.  No way we see a moderate to strong El Nino this year. 


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#5
tim the weatherman

Posted 17 July 2014 - 11:03 AM

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Andrew's on the ball, but the other guy is in lala land IMO.  No way we see a moderate to strong El Nino this year. 

i agree that the other guy is wrong because if you look at the enso regin that below normal tempratures has gotten to the elnino and the way i heard that in south america that a spot is showing colder than normal tempratures so that is a good indicator that the central pacific is colling instead of warming and by next week that the rest of the warm waters will start to cool down.



#6
Chris

Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:05 PM

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Since the initial huge kelvin wave, and subsequent predictions of super nino, the trades have resumed and dissipated much of the surface warmth.  The PDO also had a large drop in June.  I'm expecting a weak nino, and hopefully a wetter winter for the drought stricken southwest.


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#7
GHweatherChris

Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:38 PM

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Still a good chance at neutral as well, the way things look now.



#8
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 July 2014 - 02:14 AM

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I hope we don't have another ENSO neutral winter because I think CA will have another bone dry winter as a result with the atmosphere still having memory of last year's -PDO, +AMO. It seems to take a year for the atmosphere to react to a change in either the PDO or AMO or both for whatever reason. Even a weak Nino may be dry under these conditions. We desperately need drought relief this upcoming winter and I feel we have to have a moderate or stronger El Nino to do the trick, or we may be facing severe water restrictions next year.

 

With the PDO positive this year, I think the odds of the winter of 2015-16 being wetter is higher. 


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#9
primetime

Posted 18 July 2014 - 06:39 AM

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I posted this in the July thread but figured it belongs more in here. Latest from Andrew's blog.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

 

There are a couple of flaws in that write up.  

 

The write up mentions that the Cohen SAI Index measures Oct snow advance 'north' of 60N in Eurasia.  As stated in the Cohen paper, it should be 'south' or 'equatorward' of 60N.  In spite of that, the model he shows does indicate above normal precip south of 60N.

 

Secondly, he states that the SAI did not perform well last winter, which is not true.  The SAI correlation is used to predict the AO, not how cold it will be in a given location.  Last October, the SAI indicated that the wintertime AO would be positive, which it was...particularly if you include the month of March, which Cohen has been including in the correlation in more recent years (his initial paper linked above for the SAI used the Dec-Feb period for the correlation).


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#10
Tom

Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:27 AM

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JMA starting to turn the corner and support a cold winter Dec-Feb for the Eastern CONUS.  Check out the difference from its June run, baby steps.


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#11
Chris

Posted 22 July 2014 - 03:15 PM

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JMA starting to turn the corner and support a cold winter Dec-Feb for the Eastern CONUS.  Check out the difference from its June run, baby steps.

 

That still looks like a Nino signature.  We'll see...



#12
Tom

Posted 22 July 2014 - 03:21 PM

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JMA is still pointing towards a weak El Nino.  We'll see if that holds true as we get closer to Fall.



#13
Chris

Posted 22 July 2014 - 03:32 PM

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I've seen the 2009 El Nino frequently come up as an analog to this year.



#14
Tom

Posted 22 July 2014 - 04:51 PM

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As we get closer and closer to Fall/Winter, we won't be seeing Canada as warm as it has been this summer due to the sun angle becoming lower in the sky creating less heat energy.  I'm seeing the CFSv2 show this in September as we begin meteorological Autumn.  You can see August still has above normal temps in Canada, below normal over the Central CONUS, but in September Canada cools off as Autumn begins and so does the lower 48.


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#15
primetime

Posted 22 July 2014 - 05:06 PM

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I've seen the 2009 El Nino frequently come up as an analog to this year.

 

Just my opinion, but I don't see any way we reach the Nino strength of 09-10 which was borderline moderate/strong.  Quite frankly, this Nino is on life support right now.  Upper ocean heat content has fallen off a cliff like the yodeler on The Price is Right.  Model consensus is going with a weak Nino, but I just wonder if they won't begin to fall over the next 2 months.


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#16
Phil

Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:16 PM

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The 2009-10 analog is similar in other ways..primarily in the stratosphere. The -QBO, SAO, Brewer-Dobson cells, and MQI in general are similar.

That said, if ENSO weren't enough, solar alone may prevent a repeat of 2009-10, both in tropical response and the magnitude of the -NAM.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#17
tim the weatherman

Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:26 AM

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with the 2009-10 winter season we had a moderate el nino so that means that this winter of 2014 2015 is a weak el nino by the weal upwelling.



#18
tim the weatherman

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:47 AM

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JMA is still pointing towards a weak El Nino.  We'll see if that holds true as we get closer to Fall.

i am thinking that the weak el nino won't last because the what the weather centre said that weak upwelling has caused it and they don't las too long by a few weeks and they can pop up without being noticedthat the what the weather centre had said probably is a few weeks old.



#19
tim the weatherman

Posted 23 July 2014 - 02:55 PM

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have been hearing that a southeast ridge is coming to fruition this coming winter so that means from the plains to the lower great lakes will be getting on with the monster snowstorms assocatied with the col lows and panhandle hooks.


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#20
Tom

Posted 23 July 2014 - 03:32 PM

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The SE ridge is something I mentioned back in June.  SST anomalies look favorable at the moment for pronounced ridging near Bermuda. 

 

I heard from JB that he is using '77/78 as one of the analogs and that was a Blockbuster year for our region that had monster snowstorms.  If we can get another 80"+ season, I'd be that happiest guy on the block!


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#21
Tom

Posted 23 July 2014 - 03:41 PM

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In fact, I believe the winter of 1977-78 was classified as a "weak El Nino" but it faded quickly.  We may have a very similar situation evolve this year if an El Nino does decide to form.


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#22
tim the weatherman

Posted 23 July 2014 - 03:41 PM

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The SE ridge is something I mentioned back in June.  SST anomalies look favorable at the moment for pronounced ridging near Bermuda. 

 

I heard from JB that he is using '77/78 as one of the analogs and that was a Blockbuster year for our region that had monster snowstorms.  If we can get another 80"+ season, I'd be that happiest guy on the block!

i agree tom.



#23
Phil

Posted 23 July 2014 - 03:54 PM

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The SE ridge is something I mentioned back in June. SST anomalies look favorable at the moment for pronounced ridging near Bermuda.

I heard from JB that he is using '77/78 as one of the analogs and that was a Blockbuster year for our region that had monster snowstorms. If we can get another 80"+ season, I'd be that happiest guy on the block!


There wasn't a pronounced SE ridge in '77/78. As for 2014-15, I doubt a sustained SE ridge will be possible under the favored ENSO/QBO regime. I'm leaning towards a stronger subtropical jet and Aleutian troughing.

That said, we won't know for sure until October/November, when things settle in a bit...just my take
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#24
Niko

Posted 23 July 2014 - 04:59 PM

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If we get a 77/78 in this upcoming winter, then, man, I will be sittin pretty here with second snowiest year in a row. Now, what are the odds for that to happan, right. Although, anything is possible. :o


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#25
Tom

Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:56 PM

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There wasn't a pronounced SE ridge in '77/78. As for 2014-15, I doubt a sustained SE ridge will be possible under the favored ENSO/QBO regime. I'm leaning towards a stronger subtropical jet and Aleutian troughing.

That said, we won't know for sure until October/November, when things settle in a bit...just my take

I was referring more towards the winter of '77/'78 being a weak El Nino and the similarities to this upcoming winter's ENSO.  The SE ridge may or may not develop as much this coming winter.  It will also depend on how much blocking develops over Greenland as well.

 

I agree with you that we will have to wait until October/November and see how the weather pattern sets up.


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#26
tim the weatherman

Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:21 PM

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and andrew at the weather centre has said that it is going to be semi-permnant high over bermuda as well so that means bad news for the east coast and good news for the plains and the greatlakes.



#27
tim the weatherman

Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:34 AM

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according to my estimating that cities of twincities (minneapolis and st paul)mn,kansas city,to st louis,mo to chicago,il to saginaw,mich will indeed get the bowling ball col low and panhandle hooks and the what andrew at the weather centre had said about the southeast ridge setting up that these cities is going to get clobbered this coming winter and with blocking we will have a colder winter ahead.



#28
weatherfan2012

Posted 24 July 2014 - 01:47 PM

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In fact, I believe the winter of 1977-78 was classified as a "weak El Nino" but it faded quickly.  We may have a very similar situation evolve this year if an El Nino does decide to form.

78 produce one of the northeast severest snowstroms on record as well blizzard of 78.
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#29
tim the weatherman

Posted 24 July 2014 - 01:58 PM

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was just looking at the state of the pdo and has gone positve so that means pacific northwest alaska will be above normal tempratures and also looking at the enso region that a la nina is trying to form.



#30
tim the weatherman

Posted 24 July 2014 - 06:46 PM

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was watching a little of gavs weather vids on youtube and he is calling a + nao for this coming winter so that means that the se ridge might happen and i hoping that the weak el nino is a no show that might be neutraland also was looking at whats up with that website and they are indicating that we will have a la nada winter this year for the 2014 2015 winterand the way i am looking at that towards winter that the weak el nino is weakning.



#31
Tom

Posted 26 July 2014 - 08:01 AM

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Nice read from Joe D' Aleo regarding the weakening "El Nino" in July from Wx Bell.  The Upper Heat content has cooled dramatically since this Spring as cooler waters are upwelling.  Characteristics of a cold PDO will beat down any significant warming and the lack of westerly winds are not creating down welling and warming of the central pacific waters.  Instead, the past couple of months low-level easterlies have been predominantly mixing in cooler waters.

 

Even though Wx Bell is predicting a weak El Nino, I still believe the state of consistent easterlies will continue and cooler waters will continue to mix in the equatorial pacific.  IMO, I find it hard to see an El Nino develop this year, but time will tell as we head into Fall.


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#32
tim the weatherman

Posted 26 July 2014 - 09:54 AM

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Nice read from Joe D' Aleo regarding the weakening "El Nino" in July from Wx Bell.  The Upper Heat content has cooled dramatically since this Spring as cooler waters are upwelling.  Characteristics of a cold PDO will beat down any significant warming and the lack of westerly winds are not creating down welling and warming of the central pacific waters.  Instead, the past couple of months low-level easterlies have been predominantly mixing in cooler waters.

 

Even though Wx Bell is predicting a weak El Nino, I still believe the state of consistent easterlies will continue and cooler waters will continue to mix in the equatorial pacific.  IMO, I find it hard to see an El Nino develop this year, but time will tell as we head into Fall.

this is great news tom this is the sign that the weal el nino is a no show that i am thinking that we will have a la nada towards fall and winter and also likejoe d'aleo from weather bell has said about the cold pdo means that it has went negative.easterbrook_projection.png?w=640



#33
tim the weatherman

Posted 26 July 2014 - 01:13 PM

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i am thinking with the enso region cooling and with the cold pdo with the upwelling so that means we could be looking at a possible la nina setting up for next year.



#34
tim the weatherman

Posted 26 July 2014 - 02:10 PM

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also just found out by gavs weather vid's that there is no evdence of a tripole in the north atlantic so that means with the elnino a no show and the nao likely to be positveand he also have said that next year that we could have a la nina setting upand he also has mentioned that we could have another cold winter for north america and a modoki el nino will set up for this winter.



#35
Phil

Posted 26 July 2014 - 09:58 PM

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If we end up with a +NAO/+AAM, most of the country will probably torch.

We currently have a developing -QBO which when coupled with what will likely be a +AAM winter w/ average solar and a strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, I suspect will lead to an Aleutian low, active STJ, amplified MJO, and possibly a very perturbed PV over the long run.

So I's anticipate a +PNA/-AO winter.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#36
primetime

Posted 27 July 2014 - 04:58 AM

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also just found out by gavs weather vid's that there is no evdence of a tripole in the north atlantic so that means with the elnino a no show and the nao likely to be positveand he also have said that next year that we could have a la nina setting upand he also has mentioned that we could have another cold winter for north america and a modoki el  nino will set up for this winter.

 

If el nino is a no show, you can't have a modoki el nino....can't have it both ways



#37
primetime

Posted 27 July 2014 - 04:59 AM

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If we end up with a +NAO/+AAM, most of the country will probably torch.

We currently have a developing -QBO which when coupled with what will likely be a +AAM winter w/ average solar and a strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, I suspect will lead to an Aleutian low, active STJ, amplified MJO, and possibly a very perturbed PV over the long run.

So I's anticipate a +PNA/-AO winter.

 

Phil - I believe you meant to say -AAM in that middle paragraph (bolded) based on the rest of your text...but correct me if wrong.



#38
primetime

Posted 27 July 2014 - 05:47 AM

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Phil - I believe you meant to say -AAM in that middle paragraph (bolded) based on the rest of your text...but correct me if wrong.

 

On second thought, +AAM does match the rest of your text (Nino like)...I had that wrong



#39
tim the weatherman

Posted 27 July 2014 - 08:05 AM

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it looks like a repeat in the making with a -epo +pna -ao -qbo +nao and others is going to contribute to this winter to be like last winter and with a southeast ridge setting up so that means the midwest is going to cash in with bowling ball col lows and panhandle hooks and with the el nino being morphed into a modoki el nino.



#40
iFred

Posted 27 July 2014 - 09:45 AM

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If we end up with a +NAO/+AAM, most of the country will probably torch.

We currently have a developing -QBO which when coupled with what will likely be a +AAM winter w/ average solar and a strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, I suspect will lead to an Aleutian low, active STJ, amplified MJO, and possibly a very perturbed PV over the long run.

So I's anticipate a +PNA/-AO winter.

 

So the Southwest is wet, the Northwest is dry and warm, and the rest of the country enjoys cooler than average temps. Nino be dammed.



#41
Phil

Posted 27 July 2014 - 09:50 AM

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it looks like a repeat in the making with a -epo +pna -ao -qbo +nao and others is going to contribute to this winter to be like last winter and with a southeast ridge setting up so that means the midwest is going to cash in with bowling ball col lows and panhandle hooks and with the el nino being morphed into a modoki el nino.


I don't understand why you're predicting a -AO and +NAO? That's very difficult to do and even last winter it was not usually the case..has never happened for extended periods in a -QBO, at least since we began adequate record-keeping..

With a Niño/+AAM bias in the tropical forcing, getting a SE ridge would be especially difficult as low heights/enhanced vorticity would be favored over the Aleutians/NPAC, which favors increased upward propagating Rossby waves, hence a weakened/elongated PV more prone to intrusion/SSW activity..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#42
richard mann

Posted 27 July 2014 - 12:05 PM

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Next fall. ? .... I'm looking at cold consolidating better north, more generally. .. Warmer south. 
 
You figure the precip..


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#43
Chris

Posted 28 July 2014 - 12:45 PM

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If we end up with a +NAO/+AAM, most of the country will probably torch.

We currently have a developing -QBO which when coupled with what will likely be a +AAM winter w/ average solar and a strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, I suspect will lead to an Aleutian low, active STJ, amplified MJO, and possibly a very perturbed PV over the long run.

So I's anticipate a +PNA/-AO winter.

 

When was the last year we had a persistent Aleutian low with an active STJ?



#44
tim the weatherman

Posted 28 July 2014 - 01:24 PM

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just looking at the weather centre blog and andrew over there said that the midwest and the northeast better get prepared for a repeat from last winter becaus he mentioned the gulf of alaska with warmer than normal waters and he stated that we might have a weak el nino or it could be up in the air about that and was talking about the north atlantic oscillation being in the neutral to positve state last winter so that means that thne midwest particullary the great lakes and the northeast better ge their extra blankets out for this winter againand he also has said if this pattern continues then it increases our chances of a cold winter and it could be a brutal one and he also has said that the southeast ridge is possible.



#45
james1976

Posted 28 July 2014 - 02:17 PM

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wow...i havent check in here for a while! i thought the thread wasnt working cuz it looked different on the homepage. Anyway, great stuff to read in here. Excitement is building as we head toward late summer.



#46
Phil

Posted 28 July 2014 - 09:44 PM

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When was the last year we had a persistent Aleutian low with an active STJ?


2009-10 was the last time this occurred on a persistent scale. Before that, it was 2006-07, and 2002-03.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#47
Phil

Posted 28 July 2014 - 09:54 PM

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-


If you're replying to me, I'm not sure on precip yet..a lot of things still need to be worked out.

Big wild card this year is the Sun from September-November..very crucial in the -QBO to maintain a healthy upward-propagating wave train and O^3 flux into the polar stratosphere via the Brewer-Dobson circulation..and whether or not this occurs will is determined by both the Sun via processes in the upper atmosphere (SAO, Thermal Winds, EU Flux) and tropical forcing (ENSO/AAM/MJO)...both processes interact with one another as well. We have the tropics on our side now, but the upper atmospheric response to the new forcing state is not set in stone yet.

If the Sun remains quiet, analogs like 1968-69 become the front runners, giving PNWers hope...if the Sun decides to pull another stunt like in late 2011, it may lead to a wall-to-wall warm winter in the west +PNA/+EPO, elongated wave train in the shear-zone)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#48
richard mann

Posted 28 July 2014 - 10:04 PM

richard mann

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If you're replying to me, .....


No. I hadn't been.

Just dropping in my general conjecture where regarding/ considering the main topic theme here.
 

 Repeated here, connected originally to something other that I'd posted over in the main PWN section.  Jesse had asked me how I'd thought things might look this fall, if where looking more specifically at the "lower 48"....

 

http://theweatherfor...e-22#entry30322

 

Here's my response to his having asked this question, repeated here again, for general reference sake. ...

 

" ... I'm looking at cold consolidating better north, more generally. .. Warmer south.  You figure the precip.."


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#49
Phil

Posted 28 July 2014 - 10:50 PM

Phil

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Ok, thanks
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#50
tim the weatherman

Posted 29 July 2014 - 02:32 PM

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I was referring more towards the winter of '77/'78 being a weak El Nino and the similarities to this upcoming winter's ENSO.  The SE ridge may or may not develop as much this coming winter.  It will also depend on how much blocking develops over Greenland as well.

 

I agree with you that we will have to wait until October/November and see how the weather pattern sets up.

according to andrew at the weather centre that a southeast ridge is a possibilty for this upcoming winterand also gavs weather vids said that the nao will be positve this winter because like andrew at the weather centre has said yesterday that last winter lack of blocking over greenland didn't caused the nao to go negative.