Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season


  • Please log in to reply

#101
Chris

Posted 08 August 2014 - 01:48 PM

Chris

    Community Mod

  • Admin
  • 1055 posts
  • LocationOregon Coast Range 1000'

IMO, it will be another unprecedented ridge yet again this winter.  I know you live in the NW coast and would like to see some winter weather, but I highly doubt troughing develops this winter in your area, maybe very early in the season but eventually that same pattern we saw last year will take hold.  Of course you will see some storms, but not many snowstorms.

 

The weather pattern cycles continuously and we are seeing this same SST pattern as we saw back in 1917/18 where that warm pool of water in NE Pacific stayed in place and didn't go anywhere.  In result, the Central/Eastern U.S. saw severe winters.  We will have yet another, even if an El Nino does develop.  Another important fact is that last year at this time there wasn't as much warm water in the Bearing Sea, Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast.  I posted those map comparisons.

yes I'd like to see some winter weather in the northwest, but more than that I'd like to see rain in the southwest.  I try not to let my biases infect my predictions.  I also should point out that I've busted on my last 4 winter forecasts. 

 

I'm not ready to write off El Nino yet.  I want to see how the next kelvin wave goes first.



#102
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 02:10 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
I agree with you that I'd like to see the Southwest get more rain and they should if this El Nino comes on in the Fall. I personally reside there in the Spring and my parents are snow birds so I def would like more moisture down there.

#103
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 02:34 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The new Euro seasonal forecast has a central based El Nino and it also shows major blocking near Greenland.  Euro/JMA are fairly similar in their forecasts this far out.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#104
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 07:17 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

whats a central based El Nino? whats the "central based" part mean?


  • richard mann likes this

#105
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 06:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

whats a central based El Nino? whats the "central based" part mean?

A central-based El Nino keeps the warmer waters in the central pacific and is referred to as a "modiki" type El Nino.  This is a similar set-up to what happened back in 2009/10 and had a cold/snowy eastern U.S.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#106
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 12:33 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

2009/2010 winter was very snowy around here. Just looked up some info.



#107
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 03:06 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

fall outlook...hope its ok to post here
650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpg



#108
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 03:19 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

2009/2010 winter was very snowy around here. Just looked up some info.

Ya, that winter was solid around these parts...solid 50-60" season...I remember it was cold, but not severely cold....consistent highs in the 20's and upper 10's.  I remember looking at the 7-day forecast and for weeks it was cold but not brutal.  Then again, there wasn't that warm pool in the NE Pacific, but there was a lot of high latitude blocking.  This winter is shaping up to be a nice one, I just want to see the storm track set up with the new LRC this Fall.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#109
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 07:33 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

was looking that japan has reduced their el nino forecast for this fall and winter.



#110
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 07:53 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

the newest jametec model is out and it is showing a central pacific el nino(modoki).



#111
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 10:02 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

also joe bastardi has said the the southeast will be colder and snowy for this upcoming winter and to me i have to disagree on joe on that because if we get the -nao and possibe se ridge setting up so that means that the midwest to the northeast us will be in for nasty winter thisyear and with the central elnino known as modiki el nino.



#112
Phil

Posted 11 August 2014 - 10:40 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

also joe bastardi has said the the southeast will be colder and snowy for this upcoming winter and to me i have to disagree on joe on that because if we get the -nao and possibe se ridge setting up so that means that the midwest to the northeast us will be in for nasty winter thisyear and with the central elnino known as modiki el nino.


Why do you suspect the development of a SE ridge? With a -NAO/+AAM bias, that'd be almost impossible without an uber GOA vortex..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#113
Phil

Posted 11 August 2014 - 10:45 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

fall outlook...hope its ok to post here
650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpg


Lol, that's climo
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#114
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 11:46 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

was looking and we have a tripole  so we will have a -nao for this winter warm up by greenland east of newfoundland and warm down towards the a zores islands and the southeast us.



#115
Niko

Posted 11 August 2014 - 12:01 PM

Niko

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1665 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Here is something I found in my search:

 

Northeast and Great Lakes: A good portion of the Northeast will likely experience a colder-than-average winter, but it really depends on where you’re located at. Places in the northern Northeast like Maine could actually have around average temperatures and snowfall, while regions more to the south and along the coast may feel the effects of heavier snowfall and brutally cold air. The Great Lakes region will be brutally cold; however lake-effect snowfall could be considerably less this year. This was hard for me to include on my winter map, which is why I wanted to mention it here. Waters on the lakes are still very cold from this past winter with chunks of ice that were still being spotted as late as this past July 4th. This will likely have an effect on the lake-effect snow machine this upcoming winter.

 

To my understanding, it seems to me that this year, perhaps, the Northeast corridor (i-95 region from D.C. TO B-Town) will get innidated with heavy snows and very cold outbreaks with sustain cold air in place from D-M. The jet stream will be in the right spot for explosive developments along the eastern seaboard for big snowstorms and blizzards. Every article I have read so far saids that a harch winter on the way for Northeast coastline, which goes back a few years. Have to wait and see though how strong the southeast ridge will be, how much blocking occurs in greenland and if a El Nino occurs and also other factors as well.. All factors play a big role and can make weather change in a heart beat.

As far as the Great Lakes go, well after breaking an all time snowiest winter last year of 94.5inches in my area, can we do it again? Maybe! We will see. It will be a darn frigid winter, but hoping the jet stream favors us too to receive sizable snowstorms and not mostly the NE. coastline. Good times ahead this Autumn season as forecasters have a better grip on what is going to happen this winter coming up, especially by November. :D


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#116
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 01:19 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

 If we have split flow as indicated, I doubt the STJ will be as suppressed as it is in your maps and will tend to take a more typical track across the SW and across TX/LA.



#117
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 01:36 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February. Precipitation will be below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Snowfall will be above normal in most of the region, with the snowiest periods in mid-December, early and mid-January, and early February.  (source the old farmers almanac)



#118
tim the weatherman

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:21 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

Why do you suspect the development of a SE ridge? With a -NAO/+AAM bias, that'd be almost impossible without an uber GOA vortex..

but why are you saying that the aam is positve while it is negative now because i found that out by esrl noaa.gov website.



#119
Phil

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:39 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

but why are you saying that the aam is positve while it is negative now because i found that out by esrl noaa.gov website.


The AAM is currently negative, yes, but that is due to intra seasonal MJO forcing.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#120
Phil

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:40 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February. Precipitation will be below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Snowfall will be above normal in most of the region, with the snowiest periods in mid-December, early and mid-January, and early February. 9source the old farmers almanac)


Can you link us to it? Thanks :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#121
james1976

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:46 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Andrew has a good write up of how the long range winter forecasts are not something to hang your hat on.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#122
The Snowman

Posted 12 August 2014 - 05:46 PM

The Snowman

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 171 posts
Haven't been on here in quite a while... Figure it's time to come out of the shadows as winter approaches.

Currently leaning towards a cool winter for the center of the country. Have yet to pull up some analogs, since the ENSO situation is so volatile.

Publisher at The Weather Centre blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

 

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

 

The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!   

#123
Tom

Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:22 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

It's interesting to see a Summer time -NAO develop this time of year.  One which we have not seen all of last Fall/Winter/Spring.  Could this be the new pattern  setting up for this upcoming winter???  To early to say, but the warm waters in the north Atlantic may have something to say about this.

 

Due to this blocking pattern near Greenland, a substantial cool pool is going to develop in central Canada and the northern Plains.  Keep an eye how this evolves in the Fall.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#124
james1976

Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:53 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

i forgot...what does -NAO typically mean for our part of the country?



#125
tim the weatherman

Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:55 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

according to kasimsweatherwatcher.co they are saying that the heaviest of the snow and cold will be east of chicago this winter but i disagree with this forecast because if we get those bowling ball panhandle hooks and col lows so that means that chicago will be in the crosshairs if these storms that cand cause blizzards.



#126
Tom

Posted 13 August 2014 - 09:01 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

i forgot...what does -NAO typically mean for our part of the country?

Cold and Stormy pattern....it creates a trough in our region.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#127
tim the weatherman

Posted 13 August 2014 - 10:09 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

Midwest

Well below average temperatures. Should be near normal snowfall totals due to an expected storm track change. However, brief periods were southeast ridge makes and appearance, storm track could favor a very snowy Midwest.(source rapidwx)



#128
james1976

Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:07 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

thats what i was thinking a -NAO meant but wanted to be sure.
yeah weatherman....it seems like a lot of winter outlooks are favoring the east/northeast for the heaviest of the snow as of right now.



#129
tim the weatherman

Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:03 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

I prefer to stay out of the climate change debate, although the only comment I do have to make is that suddenly I'm hearing a lot less of the "imminent danger" calls for additional melting with every year starting with 2007 and an ice-free summer by 2016, 2020, etc. 

(source accuweather fourms)



#130
tim the weatherman

Posted 14 August 2014 - 11:34 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

the chances of an el nino this year continues to go down hill so that means we will not have an el nino this yearand a modiki el nino will be in the cards for this up coming winter season.



#131
primetime

Posted 14 August 2014 - 01:00 PM

primetime

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 55 posts
  • LocationCarolina

the chances of an el nino this year continues to go down hill so that means we will not have an el nino this yearand a modiki el nino will be in the cards for this up coming winter season.

 

1. If the 'chances' of el nino are going down hill, how can it be said definitively that 'we will not have an el nino'.  That statement doesn't make sense.

2. If there is no el nino, how can you have a modoki el nino?  That statement doesn't make sense.



#132
primetime

Posted 14 August 2014 - 01:11 PM

primetime

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 55 posts
  • LocationCarolina

I don't know, maybe my statements don't make sense....I suppose it's possible to have a modoki el nino while not having an official El Nino in the Nino 3.4 region via ONI and/or MEI.  We know of the sea surface anomaly pattern associated with El Nino Modoki, but I don't know that there is an official index that dictates whether one has actually occurred or not...although JAMSTEC does have an index for it.  At any rate, I don't see any evidence suggesting that we would transition to a modoki el nino with the max warm anomalies in the central Pacific, flanked by cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific and western Pacific...but we'll see.

 

http://www.jamstec.g..._home_s.html.en



#133
Phil

Posted 14 August 2014 - 01:33 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
An El Niño Modoki must still register at Niño 3.4 to be classified as a Niño...the chances of El Niño have not gone down...the chances of a mod/strong Niño, however, have gone down
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#134
james1976

Posted 14 August 2014 - 03:30 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

good little read about El Nino potential
http://www.climate.g...izzle-or-sizzle


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#135
Tom

Posted 14 August 2014 - 03:41 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Those waters off the PNW coast are warming considerably over the past 2 months and gaining in overall size.  Waters near Greenland continue to be above normal.  Not surprised we are already seeing blocking develop this early in the season.  This could be a nice trend as we head into Fall.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#136
iFred

Posted 15 August 2014 - 12:05 AM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 2108 posts
  • LocationPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania.

An El Niño Modoki must still register at Niño 3.4 to be classified as a Niño...the chances of El Niño have not gone down...the chances of a mod/strong Niño, however, have gone down

 

A weak Nino would be pretty nice for the PacNW.



#137
tim the weatherman

Posted 17 August 2014 - 02:48 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

andrew at the weather centre  has 2 good articles up that he has detailed in both on about the long range computer models has corrected itself and now has the center in line for snowy conditions for the central us and he also detaled how the nao could be negative this winter so the east coast and the central us will be in line for nasty snowstorms this winter if the southeast ridge does develop for the lower greatlakes and he also mentioned about the lower midwest and the westren ohio valley will be in line for snowstorms after snowstorms.



#138
james1976

Posted 17 August 2014 - 03:55 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Yeah, Andrew always has good stuff on his blog. Sounds like the long range models are leaning towards a weak El Nino, possible cold/stormy winter for central/Eastern US.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#139
Tom

Posted 17 August 2014 - 04:40 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Saw this tweet from JB showing the Brazilian Meteograms for Chicago.  Certainly indicating a very snowy and active period Dec/Jan.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#140
tim the weatherman

Posted 17 August 2014 - 05:05 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

Saw this tweet from JB showing the Brazilian Meteograms for Chicago.  Certainly indicating a very snowy and active period Dec/Jan.

this could be big snowstorms and blizzards for chicago and if we get that southeast or not that means chicago metro area would be getting a nasty winter for 2014 2015 and jb also had said that we are in line for a major nasty winter because by the major oscilliation turning negative like the nao the epoand also we might have a weak el nino coming to play thanks to the kelvin wave and the dowmwelling also jb said this winter will be extreme.



#141
tim the weatherman

Posted 17 August 2014 - 05:26 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

just heard from jb too that later thisweek or nextweek that the northren rockies will have their first snow this year.



#142
Tom

Posted 17 August 2014 - 08:44 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Taking a gander at the August's run of the JMA, I find it intriguing that every run of the past 5 or more continue to show a colder eastern U.S.   In fact, since it's June run the model has been getting colder and colder.  I posted those maps for your perusal.

 

If we take into account the new LRC cycle which begins in Oct and runs through roughly the end of November, I think its fair game to see that based on this months new run of the JMA Precip forecast it sets up a storm track right through the lower lakes.  If you believe in the LRC, then you should expect that this pattern will cycle through the entire winter.  Having said that, then this would mean most of our region is in fair game for significant snows.  Based on this run, MO/IL/IN/MI all are inline for above normal precip in the Fall months.  It's nice to see the model sniffing this pattern out.  However, we wont' know if it is accurate until the new LRC sets in.  Maybe this run gives us a hint of what to expect down the road.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#143
tim the weatherman

Posted 17 August 2014 - 08:57 PM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

Taking a gander at the August's run of the JMA, I find it intriguing that every run of the past 5 or more continue to show a colder eastern U.S.   In fact, since it's June run the model has been getting colder and colder.  I posted those maps for your perusal.

 

If we take into account the new LRC cycle which begins in Oct and runs through roughly the end of November, I think its fair game to see that based on this months new run of the JMA Precip forecast it sets up a storm track right through the lower lakes.  If you believe in the LRC, then you should expect that this pattern will cycle through the entire winter.  Having said that, then this would mean most of our region is in fair game for significant snows.  Based on this run, MO/IL/IN/MI all are inline for above normal precip in the Fall months.  It's nice to see the model sniffing this pattern out.  However, we wont' know if it is accurate until the new LRC sets in.  Maybe this run gives us a hint of what to expect down the road.

i agree if the stormtrack goes throgh the lower greatlakes then the southeastridge will have to be present for the lower great lakes to have big snowstorms to hit and people living in in/il/mo and mi needs to be aware with this forecast and chicago will be one midwest and greatlakes city will be in line for the nastiest winterstorms i bet it will take a same track like it did on groundhogs day of 2011.



#144
james1976

Posted 18 August 2014 - 06:37 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Hopefully Iowa gets in the action. I always get worried with the cutters cuz they tend to miss me to the southeast.



#145
tim the weatherman

Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:35 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

according to my calculation that the what tom has said with the storm track going through the lower greatlakes this will take a similar track like it did on groundhogs day 2011 taking the low through ark to east of indianapolis in to oh.



#146
Phil

Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:54 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
There is no "storm track", in singularity. Every system operates differently within the boundary state it's confined to evolve within.

As for "cutters"...you need an early phasing between the polar/pacific jets to get enough deepening/momentum transfer. That requires a SE ridge and low AAM integral...difficult to get that in a Niño w/ a -QBO
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#147
Tom

Posted 18 August 2014 - 09:15 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 12098 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

how can say this with the lrc begins in october and go through novenber if it repeats it self through winter so that means the storm track can go right through the lower greatlakes and it doesn't have to be the aam nino and -obo like you said so look at tom's post and he'll tellyou.

We can't pin point a storm track just yet, but what we can look at are what the models (like the JMA, Brazilian) which are indicating above normal precip in our general region.  Not until the new LRC sets up by late November will we know how this storm track evolves.  Needless to say, it appears that it will be an active season in our region. 

 

@ James, yes that means you are also in the game.  Just because IA/S WI was not in the JMA's above normal precip forecast doesn't necessarily mean your out of the woods.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#148
tim the weatherman

Posted 18 August 2014 - 09:17 AM

tim the weatherman

    timtheweatherman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1169 posts
  • Locationmomence il

There is no "storm track", in singularity. Every system operates differently within the boundary state it's confined to evolve within.

As for "cutters"...you need an early phasing between the polar/pacific jets to get enough deepening/momentum transfer. That requires a SE ridge and low AAM integral...difficult to get that in a Niño w/ a -QBO

how can youn say that every system operates diffently with the storm track going through the lower greatlakes based by the models and the lrc first of all that the models has indicated that the storm track going through the lower greatlakes so that means the lrc starts in october and it repeats itself through winter so that means that the lower great lakes will be in for a long ride this winter.



#149
Phil

Posted 18 August 2014 - 09:35 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12041 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

how can youn say that every system operates diffently with the storm track going through the lower greatlakes based by the models and the lrc first of all that the models has indicated that the storm track going through the lower greatlakes so that means the lrc starts in october and it repeats itself through winter so that means that the lower great lakes will be in for a long ride this winter.


I don't understand this post at all...no offense.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#150
james1976

Posted 18 August 2014 - 11:08 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2969 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

I remember last winter we had a clipper parade. I tend to do well with those. Bring on the NW flow!