Jump to content

Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season


Recommended Posts

But dont we need some cool waters for a cold/snowy winter? The gulf of alaska looks warm and I think that means business for us, if im not mistaken!

Nope, your probably referring to cooler waters near Japan using the East Asian Theory that coincides with storminess in the East.  That is something totally different than the waters near Alaska.  Warm waters almost always bring ridging where they reside.  The oceans control the planetary cycles, not us Humans (as they say).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I certainly hope that CA has a much better winter this next season as opposed to the terrible drought conditions we have been experiencing the last 2-3 years. The high in the north Pacific has unable to be undercut recently probably due to the -PDO and ENSO neutral conditions not favoring a good subtropical jet and the MJO not being in a favorable phase. This year the PDO is positive, which is usually more favorable for wetter winters in CA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not that you are entirely, we all do to some extent. I have seen people post in the past that the FA was unreliable when it called for warmer winters, and then super reliable when it called for cooler. They have pretty horrible accuracy, and only at best can present a rough guide to a seasonal forecast- all though ENSO, Solar, and other means are significantly better.

Re: Old Farmers Almanac...I think you're being imby-centric. They've actually done very well over the US as a whole (nailed 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14). Not that I necessarily agree with all of their methodology...but you should really give credit where credit is due

 

On that note, if the East gets blasted, I hope that means the West gets hit as well. Last year featured two significant instances where the PacNW was a model run away from something of historic proportions, only to be either nearly missed or not get any moisture when its needed. Warm-Neutrals seem to be great for -EPOs and in turn for active weather here.

Heck, I could see a scenario where the USA torches during the first half of winter. This idea that warm NPAC SSTs = cold eastern winter is really confusing me. There's a lot more that goes into this and I wouldn't go all in on a cold winter just yet...definitely a bit worried about a +EPO/Eurasian PV in December..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

-

 

.. Just of more incidental note here. The "Farmer's Almanac" pointed to within the post accessible here following from above, is not in fact the one most ofter referred to.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/580-preliminary-discussion-for-upcoming-2014-15-winter-season/?p=32041

 

That one would be instead, "The Old Farmers Almanac", more specifically. ....

 

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=The+Old+Farmer%27s+Almanac&gbv=2&oq=The+Old+Farmer%27s+Almanac&gs_l=heirloom-hp.3..0l3j0i10j0l6.111.15319.1.15699.29.24.4.1.1.0.220.3400.0j21j1.22.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-hp..4.39.5009.iQ45YgypBlo

 

Some people will do anything for money. And in the case of the "group's" publication pointed to above, it's fairly obviously what they have.

 

.. As far at the "Old Farmer's Almanac" goes, with "Phil's" having pointed to something about something they'd projected, and commented on it within the main general thread for the PNW, where seeing some amount of potential for discussion more specific more where focusing on that publication's output, broader ranging and more regionally defined, I in fact started a thread connected to this idea over in the "North American Weather" section or sub-forum back in the middle of August. 

 

In which, I had also worked to solicit (elicit.) peoples' (whoever's.) thinking, general or more specific, regarding these "forecasts". Mine own thoughts are posted in the second post to the thread. 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/615-farmers-almanac-2014-15/

---
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Old Farmers Almanac...I think you're being imby-centric. They've actually done very well over the US as a whole (nailed 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14). Not that I necessarily agree with all of their methodology...but you should really give credit where credit is due

 

 

Heck, I could see a scenario where the USA torches during the first half of winter. This idea that warm NPAC SSTs = cold eastern winter is really confusing me. There's a lot more that goes into this and I wouldn't go all in on a cold winter just yet...definitely a bit worried about a +EPO/Eurasian PV in December..

What I have learned and witnessed (even last year) what warm NPAC SST's create is Higher Heights/Ridging that pump the Alaskan Ridge into the Arctic region which was all so common last winter.  It makes logical sense that above normal water temps should create High Pressure in that part of the world.  I have to disagree with you that the first of half of this winter will be torchy in the U.S, probably for the West Coast.

 

What is fascinating, is what has happened in Canada over the last week or so.  The pattern up there flipped on a dime as the jet stream began to strengthen up there and significant snows have begun to fall very early in the season.  CFSv2 illustrating a below normal pattern up that way and with the common NW Flow we have seen all of last year, even parts of this summer season in the Midwest/Plains/GL region, I can only imagine this pattern continue due to the warm waters in the NPAC.  In fact, the waters are MUCH warmer and more expansive this time of year compared to last year.  The trend is our friend.  Maybe not so much for the PAC NW if your wishing for cold/storminess.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What I have learned and witnessed (even last year) what warm NPAC SST's create is Higher Heights/Ridging that pump the Alaskan Ridge into the Arctic region which was all so common last winter. It makes logical sense that above normal water temps should create High Pressure in that part of the world. I have to disagree with you that the first of half of this winter will be torchy in the U.S, probably for the West Coast.

The SSTs did not warm on their own. If warm SSTs governed the ridge, it would stay there forever as the two fed off each other in a never-ending positive feedback loop.

 

What I've found is that the warm NPAC SSTs are a result of strong NPAC ridging that began after the major SSW/MMC/MJO/Walker Cell shift in January of 2013, which has led to a new (temporary) behavioral interaction between the Hadley Cells and Walker Cell/QBO thermals...as can be seen in the overall tendency towards a +AAM.

 

I suspect we should actually see an Aleutian/NPAC low/vortex dominate the winter, which correlates to NE-PAC ridging/+PNA in the means (not talking about a +EPO vortex).

 

What is fascinating, is what has happened in Canada over the last week or so. The pattern up there flipped on a dime as the jet stream began to strengthen up there and significant snows have begun to fall very early in the season. CFSv2 illustrating a below normal pattern up that way and with the common NW Flow we have seen all of last year, even parts of this summer season in the Midwest/Plains/GL region, I can only imagine this pattern continue due to the warm waters in the NPAC. In fact, the waters are MUCH warmer and more expansive this time of year compared to last year. The trend is our friend. Maybe not so much for the PAC NW if your wishing for cold/storminess.

Sure, but I suspect it is the combined result of the MJO induced lift beefing up the WPAC Hadley Cell and a CCKW moving through the ATL, leading to a retracting the height rises over the NE US/Canada.

 

I don't think this is a permanent pattern..though things can always change in times of change like these

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SSTs did not warm on their own. If warm SSTs governed the ridge, it would stay there forever as the two fed off each other in a never-ending positive feedback loop.

 

What I've found is that the warm NPAC SSTs are a result of strong NPAC ridging that began after the major SSW/MMC/MJO/Walker Cell shift in January of 2013, which has led to a new (temporary) behavioral interaction between the Hadley Cells and Walker Cell/QBO thermals...as can be seen in the overall tendency towards a +AAM.

 

I suspect we should actually see an Aleutian/NPAC low/vortex dominate the winter, which correlates to NE-PAC ridging/+PNA in the means (not talking about a +EPO vortex).

 

 

Sure, but I suspect it is the combined result of the MJO induced lift beefing up the WPAC Hadley Cell and a CCKW moving through the ATL, leading to a retracting the height rises over the NE US/Canada.

 

I don't think this is a permanent pattern..though things can always change in times of change like these

I respect your technical and detailed explanations.  Ocean waters move constantly and yes, it is in part of a reactionary move.  We have seen this before in 1917/18 when a warm pool was established firmly for 2 consecutive years and this time is no different.  Both were severe winters for the eastern CONUS.

 

Regarding the MJO, last winter the MJO had absolutely no say in the winter pattern bc of the domination of the warm NPAC waters.  I remember ppl posting and saying that the MJO was going to bring a torch that never came in the East.  That's something to keep noteworthy as we head into this Fall/Winter season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I respect your technical and detailed explanations. Ocean waters move constantly and yes, it is in part of a reactionary move. We have seen this before in 1917/18 when a warm pool was established firmly for 2 consecutive years and this time is no different. Both were severe winters for the eastern CONUS.

 

Regarding the MJO, last winter the MJO had absolutely no say in the winter pattern bc of the domination of the warm NPAC waters. I remember ppl posting and saying that the MJO was going to bring a torch that never came in the East. That's something to keep noteworthy as we head into this Fall/Winter season.

Thanks.

 

Yeah you can blame the +QBO thermals for the MJO failure in 2013-14. I was referring to the January 2013 event back in 2012-13, which is what originally collapsed the dominoes..

 

We have the opposite tropical-tropopausal flux(ing) now vs 2013-14, though, so I think a mid-winter MJO event is likely, probably timed with the SSW event that looks all but certain, in my opinion

 

As for ocean currents, they're fairly steady in organization, and are in fact wind-driven. The oceans also cannot circulate efficiently without atmospheric help

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/580-preliminary-discussion-for-upcoming-2014-15-winter-season/?p=32197

 

Or so you think...

;)


You've simply "dodged" my point here, winkie.
(Fairly obviously. And either whether condescendingly or just childishly, at best.)
 
Present me with a brief synopsis. Set against this basic article accessible following, regarding the idea. 
 
http://www.almanac.com/content/how-we-predict-weather
 
Or perhaps this video. .. http://www.almanac.com/video/how-we-make-our-long-range-weather-forecast

Or concede the fact. And re-articulate what you've suggested above more initially.

---
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom - was curious if you could share where you get this data from...i.e. the warm pool in the N Pac for 1917-1918.  Is that from some type of re-analysis?

I personally don't have the analog maps or have access to them.  However, being a member of Wx Bell Analytics, last year Joe Bastardi honed in on this analog and used it for his cold winter outlook for 2013-14.  Joe D Aleo, who is his partner, also used the N PAC waters for his reasoning behind a severe winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just read an article out on Wx Bell that JB wrote.  He explains using his mei bounceback theory for the analog years of '69-'70 & '76-'77.  Check out how cold Dec/Jan are for the eastern 2/3 of the nation.  Focusing the heart of the cold in the GL/Midwest.  When I was looking at the CFSv2 maps this morning (I haven't looked at these all season) that showed precip/temps out to December it correlates very well to what his analog map shows below.  This would equate to 7 or 8F below normal....one heck of a way to start Winter! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the more hyped up articles I have read in my entire life about predicting a winter season!  Hahaha....I mean, he even goes to say some places may get up to 50 times their normal amounts of snowfall.  Kinda off the rocker if you ask me.  As for stocking up the freezer and planning for emergencies from snowstorms, I agree that there should be some preparedness to some extent.  You just never know, what if this winter season became one for the ages for a majority of the eastern 2/3???

 

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha, wow, from Tom's article:

 

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope you are wrong Tom. I just want the western 1/3rd of the country to be cold and snowy, even if it means that the eastern 2/3ds are warm and dry. -_-

Just for that, I'm rooting for a western ridge like no other.

 

Maybe PDX can hit 90 in January?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Empire News is a satire and entertainment site, and most of the names used in these stories are fabricated, according to their Disclaimer page.

:lol:

 

Yeah I just realized that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SSTs did not warm on their own. If warm SSTs governed the ridge, it would stay there forever as the two fed off each other in a never-ending positive feedback loop.

 

What I've found is that the warm NPAC SSTs are a result of strong NPAC ridging that began after the major SSW/MMC/MJO/Walker Cell shift in January of 2013, which has led to a new (temporary) behavioral interaction between the Hadley Cells and Walker Cell/QBO thermals...as can be seen in the overall tendency towards a +AAM.

 

I suspect we should actually see an Aleutian/NPAC low/vortex dominate the winter, which correlates to NE-PAC ridging/+PNA in the means (not talking about a +EPO vortex).

 

 

Sure, but I suspect it is the combined result of the MJO induced lift beefing up the WPAC Hadley Cell and a CCKW moving through the ATL, leading to a retracting the height rises over the NE US/Canada.

 

I don't think this is a permanent pattern..though things can always change in times of change like these

 

Bump because that's a top-notch post.

 

 

 

(.. enough on the satirical article already.)

 

"Preliminary Discussion for [the] Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season"

 

Should be an interesting one.

 

.. Colder north, warmer south, I'm thinking more generally.

Just trying to settle some confusion; I had a few people ask if the article was legitimate myself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Andrew has totally misinterpreted the JANSTEC ENSO forecast. It's going with +0.9C in its mean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...