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Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season


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#201
Phil

Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:01 PM

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Haha, wow, from Tom's article:

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#202
Phil

Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:03 PM

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I hope you are wrong Tom. I just want the western 1/3rd of the country to be cold and snowy, even if it means that the eastern 2/3ds are warm and dry. -_-


Just for that, I'm rooting for a western ridge like no other.

Maybe PDX can hit 90 in January?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#203
james1976

Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:42 PM

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That was the greatest thing I've ever read. Lol....



#204
james1976

Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:42 PM

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"Dr. Scvediok says to be prepared for a storm that could come as early as the end of September, and plan for the entire winter season, which this year, he says, will more than likely spread into next June."



#205
Tom

Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:52 PM

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"Dr. Scvediok says to be prepared for a storm that could come as early as the end of September, and plan for the entire winter season, which this year, he says, will more than likely spread into next June."

The next Ice Age....lol



#206
Phil

Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:54 PM

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Who is Dr. Scvedoik, exactly? If he's in atmospheric science, then...just wow.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#207
Mapsyscon

Posted 08 September 2014 - 08:20 PM

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That website is just satire and shouldn't be taken seriously. Read the About/Disclaimer link.



#208
richard mann

Posted 09 September 2014 - 01:10 AM

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That website is just satire and shouldn't be taken seriously. Read the About/Disclaimer link.

 

.. hmmn. 

http://theweatherfor...season/?p=32293


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#209
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 09 September 2014 - 07:32 PM

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Who is Dr. Scvedoik, exactly? If he's in atmospheric science, then...just wow.

Empire News is a satire and entertainment site, and most of the names used in these stories are fabricated, according to their Disclaimer page.



#210
Phil

Posted 09 September 2014 - 09:27 PM

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Empire News is a satire and entertainment site, and most of the names used in these stories are fabricated, according to their Disclaimer page.


:lol:

Yeah I just realized that
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#211
richard mann

Posted 09 September 2014 - 09:58 PM

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(.. enough on the satirical article already.)
 
"Preliminary Discussion for [the] Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season"
 
Should be an interesting one.
 
.. Colder north, warmer south, I'm thinking more generally.


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#212
The Snowman

Posted 11 September 2014 - 01:21 PM

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The SSTs did not warm on their own. If warm SSTs governed the ridge, it would stay there forever as the two fed off each other in a never-ending positive feedback loop.

What I've found is that the warm NPAC SSTs are a result of strong NPAC ridging that began after the major SSW/MMC/MJO/Walker Cell shift in January of 2013, which has led to a new (temporary) behavioral interaction between the Hadley Cells and Walker Cell/QBO thermals...as can be seen in the overall tendency towards a +AAM.

I suspect we should actually see an Aleutian/NPAC low/vortex dominate the winter, which correlates to NE-PAC ridging/+PNA in the means (not talking about a +EPO vortex).


Sure, but I suspect it is the combined result of the MJO induced lift beefing up the WPAC Hadley Cell and a CCKW moving through the ATL, leading to a retracting the height rises over the NE US/Canada.

I don't think this is a permanent pattern..though things can always change in times of change like these

 

Bump because that's a top-notch post.

 

 

 

(.. enough on the satirical article already.)
 
"Preliminary Discussion for [the] Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season"
 
Should be an interesting one.
 
.. Colder north, warmer south, I'm thinking more generally.

Just trying to settle some confusion; I had a few people ask if the article was legitimate myself.


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#213
Chris

Posted 19 September 2014 - 01:59 PM

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Preliminary winter peek.

Last winter: Anticyclones broke into the strong PV from the NPAC...NPAC ridging & a +NAO bias in troposphere, warm eq strat, weak MJO.

This winter: Cyclonic breakers into weak PV from NPAC troughing, major SSW event between Dec 20th and Jan 10th, -AO Jan/Feb, cool eq strat, strong MJO, especially Mid Dec-Mid Mar.

November: +PNA month, eastern troughing, though location of NPAC low is questionable still.

December: Biggest potential for the PNW, but may be fooked by Aleutian Low. May be a warm month over US, possibly Neutral/+AO.

January: Big -AO, SSW, possible blast in PNW but will likely be centered east.

February: Not sure yet, favoring a -NAO/Big Aleutian Low.


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#214
james1976

Posted 22 September 2014 - 08:52 AM

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Andrew posted in his blog about the latest JAMSTEC model
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/



#215
Phil

Posted 22 September 2014 - 12:38 PM

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Andrew has totally misinterpreted the JANSTEC ENSO forecast. It's going with +0.9C in its mean.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#216
Chris

Posted 30 September 2014 - 09:25 AM

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Analog analysis developed based on MQI progression...basically MQI is an expanded QBO index that tackles the windfield all the way through the stratospheric column, capturing the QBO/Shear progression, hence eddy/SW forcing on the PV and tropical circulation/MJO.

Years closer to the "center" match better to the current MQI progression. Blue dots = Niña/negative ONI, Red dots = Niño/positive ONI:

quEvCw.jpg

Interesting thing is these are heavily Niña-biased analogs. However, when you look at things more closely, the current MQI state favors a subdued MCC/-AAMI/MJO, so it's no surprise that the Niño is struggling at the moment.

Ignoring ENSO problems, here's what these analogs give us for winter:

0hkQW2.jpg


However, the ENSO bias will be a problem, so I'd toss some of the heavier Niña years.

 

 

Here are the closes Niño analogs...still problems with many but they're the best we have at this point:

2vCaN6.jpg