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Ocean scientists discover cooling of deep oceans in recent years


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#1
Phil

Posted 21 July 2014 - 08:19 PM

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I'm not surprised by this at all, given the positive radiation imbalance that has been measured via satellite since 2009..

http://ocean.mit.edu...6dec2013_ph.pdf

http://ocean.mit.edu...Phys. Oc., (pdf)


Two of the world’s premiere ocean scientists from Harvard and MIT have addressed the data limitations that currently prevent the oceanographic community from resolving the differences among various estimates of changing ocean heat content (in print but available here).3 They point out where future data is most needed so these ambiguities do not persist into the next several decades of change. As a by-product of that analysis they 1) determined the deepest oceans are cooling, 2) estimated a much slower rate of ocean warming, 3) highlighted where the greatest uncertainties existed due to the ever changing locations of heating and cooling, and 4) specified concerns with previous methods used to construct changes in ocean heat content, such as Balmaseda and Trenberth’s re-analysis (see below). 13 They concluded, “Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause” in warming.”

Their results (Figure 18. below) suggest a flattening or slight cooling in the upper 100 meters since 2004, in agreement with the -0.04 Watts/m2 cooling reported by Lyman (2014).6 The consensus of previous researchers has been that temperatures in the upper 300 meters have flattened or cooled since 2003,4 while Wunsch and Heimbach (2014) found the upper 700 meters still warmed up to 2009.


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The deep layers contain twice as much heat as the upper 100 meters, and overall exhibit a clear cooling trend for the past 2 decades. Unlike the upper layers, which are dominated by the annual cycle of heating and cooling, they argue that deep ocean trends must be viewed as part of the ocean’s long term memory which is still responding to “meteorological forcing of decades to thousands of years ago”. If Balmaseda and Trenberth’s model of deep ocean warming was correct, any increase in ocean heat content must have occurred between 700 and 2000 meters, but the mechanisms that would warm that “middle layer” remains elusive.


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#2
richard mann

Posted 21 July 2014 - 08:34 PM

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I'm not surprised by this at all, given the positive radiation imbalance that has been measured via satellite since 2009..

 
(.. Funnily enough.)
 
... Not, altogether, "surprising-ly".  @


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#3
Phil

Posted 21 July 2014 - 08:49 PM

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I'm not surprised by this at all, given the positive radiation imbalance that has been measured via satellite since 2009..

http://ocean.mit.edu...6dec2013_ph.pdf

http://ocean.mit.edu...Phys. Oc., (pdf)

clip_image0091.png



Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

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#4
richard mann

Posted 21 July 2014 - 08:56 PM

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http://theweatherfor...-stuff/?p=30087
 
 
.. How does it all "really" tie in, "Phil".
 
What should we expect: .. where .. when, and why. ?  -  @


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#5
Phil

Posted 21 July 2014 - 09:27 PM

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By "deep oceans", I was referring to the 700-2000m layer. This is delving much deeper, into the "abyssal" ocean, so-to-speak.
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#6
Black Hole

Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:13 AM

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So when will the surface start to respond to all this then?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#7
richard mann

Posted 22 July 2014 - 10:02 AM

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.. Cold sinks. Right. ?
 

By "deep oceans", I was referring to the 700-2000m layer. This is delving much deeper, into the "abyssal" ocean, so-to-speak.


What's the mystery here. ?
 

So when will the surface start to respond to all this then?


The better question perhaps being, .. Will it, any time soon. ?
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#8
Phil

Posted 22 July 2014 - 10:38 AM

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The better question perhaps being, .. Will it, any time soon. ?


Yes, it will. Equilibrium has been achieved in the atmosphere, but not the deep oceans..yet. That should occur shortly, in my opinion.
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#9
richard mann

Posted 22 July 2014 - 12:20 PM

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Yes, it will. Equilibrium has been achieved in the atmosphere, but not the deep oceans..yet. That should occur shortly, in my opinion.


My view, It's kind of an if you say so kinda thing here "Phil".  As with, nothing that you've said or shownhere above or routed toworks to show me that it will.

Put simply, and as I've said above, cold sinks. And so it shouldn't be surprisingto you or anyone elsethat the cold, that had been more consolidated at / within and through the higher latitudes North and South, more over greater "land mass", has moved to cool the depths of the oceans.

And with this idea .. and with what has lead to it, it's certainly being questionable just when .. that cold, might move from where it is.
 
This, with as far as your other general assertion here above goes, .... @ @

Otherwise, you'll either have to repeat or route me back to your general thinking here.
 
* * *
 ... And, if I may, if more btw / of more incidental note here, regarding what you've "suggested" (only. ?), here above, .. You have a habit, fairly off-putting in my view, of creating a fairly substantial grey area, certainly at times ... where considering the idea of something that you might be asserting (conjecture.), looked at set together with or beside, known and established facts. This, with quite often, as I see the idea, your not clarifying (i.e. working to clarify.), just when you're asserting something (i.e. ultimately only suggesting that it might be the case), set against something that is more well-established and definite. (i.e. a fact.)  Or put more simply and "conversationally" perhaps, .. How about (perhaps. / doing us all a favor, and.) ... "dropping" the "omniscience" / "omniscient air" and tone.  And otherwise working to make more clear, a better general differentiation between the two, where this potential for ambiguity might be possible.


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#10
Phil

Posted 22 July 2014 - 04:07 PM

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If "cold sinks", as you say, then why does air temperature decrease with height in the troposphere? The coldest temperatures are found way up at the mesopause, in fact. In a gravitational field, things work differently.

Your proposition doesn't explain why the deep oceans are still cooling after having billions of years to reach equilibrium...the "cold water sinks" argument makes no sense, not only because the gravitational force leads to a semi-exponential density gradient with depth, but also because the only two heat sources to the deep oceans are the geothermal flux at the ocean floor of about 0.8W/m^2, and the mixing/diffusion process within the water itself...
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#11
richard mann

Posted 22 July 2014 - 04:27 PM

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If "cold sinks", as you say, then why does air temperature decrease with height in the troposphere? The coldest temperatures are found way up at the mesopause, in fact. In a gravitational field, things work differently. ... Your proposition doesn't explain .....


.. Sorry here "Phil", but ... "Quack." / "Buzzer noise.", as you like, ...
 

.... cold sinks. And so it shouldn't be surprisingto you or anyone elsethat the cold, that had been more consolidated at / within and through the higher latitudes North and South, more over greater "land mass", has moved to cool the depths of the oceans.


...... (?)  And looked at otherwise, ... May I quote you here. ?
 

... If "cold sinks", as you say, then why does air temperature decrease with height in the troposphere? The coldest temperatures are found way up at the mesopause, in fact. In a gravitational field, things work differently.


.. Remind me of your level of education, meteorological / climatological again. (?)  [..  :)
@@ .. Higher than the tropopause. ? ... There are less air molecules to be moved around.

And, .. (?)
 

... still ... cooling ....


.. Your position apparently.

.. "Are" cooling, had been the premise. [Yes/ No. ?]  (Here, Take my horse.)
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#12
Phil

Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:10 PM

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The deep oceans receive essentially no radiative energy..it's pitch black at the sea floor. The only sources of energy are from warmer sources...the very minute geothermal heat flux, and diffusion/conduction from the warmer waters above..
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#13
richard mann

Posted 22 July 2014 - 11:45 PM

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The deep oceans receive essentially no radiative energy..it's pitch black at the sea floor.

 
Who said they did. ?
 

The only sources of energy are from warmer sources...the very minute geothermal heat flux, and diffusion/conduction from the warmer waters above..

 
And the earth's oceans are vast.
 
 So, what's your point. ?  @
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#14
Phil

Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:13 AM

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So then what are you objecting to?
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#15
richard mann

Posted 23 July 2014 - 01:31 PM

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-
".. objecting to. ?" ...  Sorry, I don't have your meaning. 
 
Most recently here above you've brought up some ideas that I've found, .. pretty much wholly "non-quoter", to what I'd posted previous to them. Perhaps you could settle this "confusion" to begin with. ?  @
 
Beyond this, and more "disconcerting" (odd.) than "objectionable", you appear to have attached some of your additional thinking to, and even apparently thoroughly misconstrued, what I've said here following repeated just below, from my post no. 9 above.  @ @
 

.. Put simply, and as I've said - [suggested] above, cold sinks. And so it shouldn't be surprisingto you or anyone elsethat the cold, that had been more consolidated at / within and through the higher latitudes North and South, more over greater "land mass", has moved to cool the depths of the oceans.

...... And with this idea .. and with what has lead to it, it's certainly being questionable just when .. that cold, might move from where it is.

 
 These ideas although, and if again, I have in fact objected (of sorts, more incidentally above of course.), to your apparent willingness, more generally at times, to assert different ideas minus that of representing whatever as your, assertion; this or either otherwise, represent others as more factual, where ultimately more just your own opinion, also within my post no. 9 above. 
 
This help any. ?


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